Artificial Boom

Discussion about the current financial crisis has largely devolved into a debate about regulation. What’s more, the general public has been led to believe that economic theory has little to say about the current crisis. In reality, the multitude of work on bubbles, crises, business cycles, and credit crises is far too vast to summarize in a book, let alone one thousand words. What should be clear, however, is that an understanding of the current crisis must begin with a description and explanation of the preceding boom. Along these lines, insight can be obtained from the writings of two prominent economists of the early twentieth century, F.A. Hayek and John Maynard Keynes.

Knowledge, Uncertainty, and the Paulson Plan

Like the crisis itself, the conversation surrounding the Paulson Plan has devolved into clichéd talking points, ideological posturing, and an utter inability to discuss the situation in an intelligent and coherent fashion. Financial and political pundits are either heralding the defeat of the plan or lamenting its demise as the trigger towards another depression. Thus […]

Strategic Reserves and Oil Prices

I was fortunate enough to receive an advanced copy of Paul Davidson’s article on oil speculation prior to its publication in the July/August issue of CHALLENGE (here is a non-gated version). Davidson shares my view that speculation coupled with low interest rates are causing rising oil prices and offers a solution. As I have previously […]

Keynes and the Crisis

In Keynes’ General Theory, he explained that an equity market collapse could be blamed on either a weakening of confidence or of the state of credit — in modern parlance, these are referred to as “counter-party risk” and “liquidity risk” respectively. The importance of this observation, however, is given by Keynes subsequent assertion that “recovery […]

An Inflation Conspiracy?

Those of us who have been hawkish on inflation have been lonely for several months now. However, recent data has suggested that the Federal Reserve may soon start raising rates again. Nevertheless, there are a group of individuals who believe that the inflation numbers are actually worse. Our friend Barry Ritholtz has been leading the […]