James Hamilton received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley in 1983. He has been a professor at the University of California, San Diego since 1990 and served as Chair of the Economics Department from 1999 to 2002. He is the author of Time Series Analysis, the leading text on forecasting and statistical analysis of dynamic economic relationships. He has done extensive research on business cycles, monetary policy, and oil shocks, and has been a research adviser and visiting scholar with the Federal Reserve System for 20 years.
Recent Blog Posts by James Hamilton
- The Soaring Stock Market
- Reinhart-Rogoff and Herndon-Ash-Pollin: A Few Further Comments
- Reinhart-Rogoff Data Problems
- Some New Estimates of Japanese Trade Elasticities
- Understanding the Housing Bubble
- Fiscal Tipping Points
- The Dorian Gray Pill
- Minimum Wage and Unemployment
- Is This a Good Time to Buy Stocks?
- Understanding Risk Aversion in Financial Markets
- QE3 and beyond
- Investment and the business cycle
- Future Production from U.S. Shale or Tight Oil
- The Oil Boom Will Only Last a Decade – Then What?
- Going Over the Fiscal Cliff
- Electoral Maps
- Update on Iran Sanctions
- Governor Brown Solves California’s Gas Price Problem
- California gas price spike
- Fat Fingers and the Price of Oil
- Thresholds in the Economic Effects of Oil Prices
- Geopolitical Unrest and Key Oil Producers
- U.S. Monetary Policy Since the Financial Crisis
- U.S. Federal Receipts and Expenditures
- The Ryan Plan and Bipartisan Compromise
- The Federal Reserve’s Maturity Extension Program and Treasury Debt Management
- Is This as Good as It Gets?
- The Fed Stands Pat, at Least for Now
- Yet Another Discouraging GDP Release
- The Fiscal Cliff and Rationality
- Maugeri on Peak Oil
- Is QE3 Coming?
- Shale Oil and Tight Oil
- Current Economic Conditions
- Natural Gas Liquids
- Gasoline Prices Coming Down
- Europe in 1931
- Options for Europe
- Peak Oil and Price Incentives
- Using Natural Gas
- Aggregate Factors in the Price of Oil
- Markets See Bad News
- Fiscal Stimulus
- Oil and Gasoline Prices
- JP Morgan and Systemic Risk
- Yes, the Fed Could Produce a Higher Inflation Rate
- Should the Fed Do More?
- Sluggish U.S. Growth Continues
- The Geography of U.S. Unemployment
- A Ban on Oil Speculation?
- Managing Strategic Petroleum Reserves
- Current U.S. Economic Conditions
- Replacing Iran’s Oil Production
- A Rational Reason for High Oil Prices
- Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession
- Why Do Gasoline Prices Differ Across U.S. States?
- Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the Rescue
- Sterilized Quantitative Easing
- Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy
- Keystone Moving Forward
- Factors in the Recent Oil Price Increases
- Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices
- Work-Arounds for the Politics of Keystone
- Measuring the Consequences of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint
- Why Not Abolish the Fed and Return to the Gold Standard?
- Inflation Expectations and the Fed
- Iranian Oil Embargo
- Reducing Petroleum Consumption from Transportation
- Current Economic Conditions
- U.S. Net Exports of Petroleum Products
- European Financial Tensions and the Fed
- Costs and Benefits of the Keystone XL Pipeline
- FOMC Statement
- More on Those Secret Federal Reserve Loans to Banks
- $7.77 Trillion in Secret Federal Reserve Loans to Banks?
- Current Economic Conditions
- Central Banks Augment Currency Swap Capabilities
- Worries Continue
- Taxing the 1%
- Implications of the Recent Rise in Oil Prices
- Greece, Italy, and Financial Stability
- Shovel Ready
- Home Affordable Refinance Program
- Could Monetary Policy Mitigate the Real Effects of Oil Shocks?
- Sargent and Sims
- Is Another U.S. Recession a ‘Done Deal’?
- Slow Growth Continues
- Monetary Policy and Democracy
- Effects of Operation Twist
- More Thoughts on Peak Oil
- What Could America Be Good At?
- Following the Swiss Lead
- Recommendations for Economic Policy
- Fundamentals, Speculation, and Oil Prices
- Where Can America Find More Income and Jobs?
- Waiting for the Fed to Act
- Not Dead Yet
- Losing Your AAA
- Relevant Economics
- Effects of the Fed’s Large-Scale Asset Purchases
- Debt Ceiling Options
- Ron Paul’s Debt Default Proposal
- Oil Prices: Hanging in There
- The Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown
- Making Jobs Priority One
- A Game of Chicken
- Chinese Oil Demand
- The Significance of OPEC Announcements
- Life Without QE2
- Oil Price Manipulation
- When the Economy Reaches Stall Speed
- Measuring Systemic Financial Risk
- Shale Gas Environmental Concerns
- Oil Prices and Trading Mechanics
- Lower Oil Prices
- Deficit Compromise
- Paying for Health Care
- More Favorable Developments
- Consumption Spending Slowing Down
- More on Japan
- Consumers See Bad News
- What Will Saudi Arabia Do?
- Velocity of Federal Reserve Deposits
- Good News From Autos — For Now
- Libya, Oil Prices, and the Economic Outlook
- New Indications of Inflation
- Money and Reserves
- Progress Report on QE2
- The Employment News Is Good (I Think)
- Geopolitical Unrest and World Oil Markets
- The Fed’s New Policy Tools
- How Much Are Gasoline Prices Weighing on Consumers?
- The First Oil Shock
- Interpreting the Employment Numbers
- Debt Ceiling Politics
- Looking Back at the Great Recession
- Changes in the Yield Curve
- Velocity of Money
- Did QE2 Work?
- Evaluating QE2
- Worrying About Oil Prices
- Still No Strength in this Rebound
- Europe and China: Is This Deja Vu All Over Again?
- QE: Answering the Bunnies
- Current Economic Conditions
- QE2: Been There, Done That
- Richard Clarida’s Retrospective on the Financial Crisis
- Arguments Against QE2
- More than One Tool for the Fed
- The Market Moves Ahead of the Fed
- What’s Holding Back Employment Growth?
- Should the Fed Try to Depress Long-Term Yields Further?
- More Thoughts on What to Expect from the Fed
- Long-term Perspective on the Stock Market
- Will the Fed Do More?
- Current Economic Conditions
- Options for Monetary Stimulus
- No Double Dip
- Jobless Recoveries
- Inflation or Deflation?
- Gold and Inflation
- Toxic Assets and Toxic Oil
- Current Economic Conditions
- Calling Recessions in Real Time
- Europe and the World Economy
- Inflation, Taxation, and the Underground Economy
- The European Bailout
- Do Rising Oil Prices Threaten the Economic Recovery?
- Why Reform Health Care?
- A New Index of Financial Conditions
- The Fed’s Discount Rate Hike
- The New Normal
- Bernanke Grades the Fed
- Inflation in China
- Lost Decade for Stocks
- Should the Fed be the Nation’s Bubble Fighter?
- Deficit Links
- Factors in Local House Price Declines
- Evaluating the New Tool of Monetary Policy
- Economy Improves but Concerns Remain
- Scott Sumner on the Fed’s mistakes
- Econbrowser Emoticon Shifts to Neutral
- $9 Trillion– What, Me Worry?
- The Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule
- Current Economic Conditions
- Cash for Clunkers: A Victim of its own Success?
- Looking for an Exit: Part 2
- Gasoline prices and consumer sentiment
- How to lose on a sure-fire bet
- More on bank lending data
- Supply, demand, and the price of oil
- The deterioration continues
- Inflation and relative prices
- This shoot is definitely growing bigger and greener
- Auto woes open a new chapter
- Further progress for initial claims for unemployment insurance
- Oil shocks and recessions
- The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index
- Initial unemployment claims and the end of recessions
- March auto sales
