H2-2017: Where to invest?

H2-2017: Where to invest?

Key takeaway – The investment environment remains challenging. In their portfolios, investors should: i) privilege a multi-year horizon; ii) focus on capital preservation by adopting a defensive risk profile; and iii) accept lower expected returns in exchange for lower volatility. Wealth preservation requires conservative investment strategies, with a greater exposure to alternatives. The recommended strategic […]

Qatar: Six Countries Sever Diplomatic Ties, Gulf Unity Under Threat

Qatar: Six Countries Sever Diplomatic Ties, Gulf Unity Under Threat

   A. What happened? On June 4 2017, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain cut diplomatic ties with Qatar. The four Arab countries—joined a few hours later by Yemen and the Maldives—decided to: a) interrupt their diplomatic relations with Qatar; b) expel Qatar from the coalition currently fighting in Yemen; c) interrupt all transport links […]

Election Time: Will Populism Block Effective, Needed Policies?

Election Time: Will Populism Block Effective, Needed Policies?

  Key takeaway – The global economy is stagnating, financial markets are jittery and citizens disfranchised. Effective policy options are available, but – alas – most are not politically viable. Over the next 12 months, key elections will take place in the US, France and Germany and a constitutional referendum in Italy. Populist parties are […]

Brexit: a déjà vu?

Brexit: a déjà vu?

Key takeaway – History has proven that the United Kingdom (UK) is a reluctant European: it systematically questions – but eventually integrates in – the European Union (EU). On June 23, 2016, a referendum will decide whether the UK should remain in the EU. This is not a first: in 1974, just one year after […]

Understanding China’s Rise: The Role of Captive Savings

Understanding China’s Rise: The Role of Captive Savings

photo: Steve Passlow Key takeaway – Over the last three decades, China’s contribution to global growth tripled. The interplay of three domestic factors enabled a growth acceleration: abundant cheap labour flocked into the industrial sector and accepted the financial repression of its savings, which in turn funded massive investment via subsidized lending to state-owned enterprises (SOEs). […]