Philippines 2017 Or the Year of Living Dangerously

Philippines 2017 Or the Year of Living Dangerously

photo: Nicolas Raymond As President Duterte is rebalancing the Philippines’ economic and strategic policies, Washington is preparing plans for regime change. What the country needs is economic development, says Dan Steinbock – not geopolitical friction. After the election triumph of President Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines has initiated a series of economic reforms to accelerate development, decentralize […]

Trump Tariffs Threaten to Undermine World Trade in 2017

Trump Tariffs Threaten to Undermine World Trade in 2017

Photo: Dirk Dallas As world trade and investment have plateaued, globalization has ground to a halt. The timing could not be worse for the Trump tariffs. In the recent Central Economic Work Conference, stability became the common denominator for China’s economic planning in 2017. And next year, the new central committee will is likely to speed […]

Why Are Foreign Nations Dumping US Treasuries

Why Are Foreign Nations Dumping US Treasuries

photo: Kurtis Garbutt Recently, foreign holders of US treasuries have been dumping their holdings more and at record pace. Optimists see it as a temporary fluctuation. Realists warn about structural change. According to US Treasury data, major foreign holders of US treasury securities have been reducing their holdings by almost $250 billion since March. The pace […]

The Rise of Anti-Establishment Italy

The Rise of Anti-Establishment Italy

photo: Ewan Topping After the UK Brexit and the Trump triumph in the US, the rise of anti-establishment Italy is hardly a surprise. It is the effect of half a decade of failed austerity doctrines in Europe and decades of failed political consolidation in Italy – ever since the notorious Tangentopoli scandals. While Italy’s constitutional referendum […]

The New Trade Future in Asia Pacific

The New Trade Future in Asia Pacific

photo: Dirk Dallas Right after the Asian-Pacific nations embraced the dream of free trade in the regional Peru Summit, President-elect Trump buried it. Last weekend, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit made it clear that it would move forward with trade pacts; with or without the US. Right after the Lima summit, President-elect Donald Trump unveiled his […]

After The Trump Triumph

After The Trump Triumph

photo: Gage Skidmore The Trump victory was a “stunning surprise” to Washington and mainstream media.  But it was very much in line with voter distrust in both Clintons and Washington’s ruling class. Politically, Americans are fed up. In cooperation with the Democratic National Committee, the Clinton campaign had far too cozy ties with Wall Street, neoconservatives […]

US 2016: Fight for Leadership Begins After the Election

US 2016: Fight for Leadership Begins After the Election

After the bizarre 2016 election, Washington faces a slate of investigations and a gridlock. Internationally, threats include new Cold War(s). Depending on the outcome, the election could even be contested. If Hillary Clinton wins, she will flash her broad smile like Alice in the Wonderland, with Vice President Tim Kaine, Bill and Chelsea on her […]

India, China face trade choices

India, China face trade choices

photo: Dirk Dallas In the coming years, China and India must decide whether their bilateral ties will be based on economic cooperation, political facilitation and strategic trust – or economic walls, political barriers and strategic containment. In early October, militants attacked an Indian army camp in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing a soldier. In this contested region, the […]

China’s Q3 Indicates Cyclical Stabilization, Secular Challenges

China’s Q3 Indicates Cyclical Stabilization, Secular Challenges

photo: Allan Watt According to the third-quarter data, China’s economy grew 6.7 percent for a third consecutive quarter. Critics claim otherwise. Yet, the real disagreement involves business cycles and secular trends. China’s sequential growth is now at 7.2 percent; fastest in three years. Manufacturing and service sectors may have bottomed around 2015/16 and have risen since, […]

U.S. 2016 Divides Advanced and Emerging Economies

U.S. 2016 Divides Advanced and Emerging Economies

photo: Vince Alongi In advanced and emerging economies, preferences for either Clinton or Trump differ based on the candidates’ views on trade, the economy, and foreign policy doctrine. Though Clinton is the preferred candidate in most areas, whoever the next U.S. president is will face – and may contribute to – significant challenges on several continents. […]