Gold’s Bright but Bumpy Future

Gold’s Bright but Bumpy Future

photo: Michael Mandiberg Not so long ago, gold suffered the most challenging losses since 1999. According to conventional wisdom, US rate hikes will contribute to its further decline. If that’s the case, why did gold prices soar during the last quarter? At the turn of 2015, gold was driven by the broad commodity sell-off, especially the […]

US 2016 Election Is a Global Risk

US 2016 Election Is a Global Risk

photo: PID As America is struggling amid a historical protest election, the political risk could undermine US economic rebound and the lingering global economic recovery. Europe will be least immune to spillovers, says Dan Steinbock. Currently, the leading Democratic presidential candidates, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, are approaching the […]

China’s Downgrade and the Case for Global Ratings Reforms

China’s Downgrade and the Case for Global Ratings Reforms

photo: PID In March, the leading credit agencies cut their outlook for China’s sovereign credit rating from stable to negative. If the decision was warranted, it may also be time to reassess the current ratings of most advanced economies and accelerate global ratings reforms. Standard & Poor’s (S&P) downgrade followed a similar measure earlier in […]

A Tale of Three Disney Cities in Asia

A Tale of Three Disney Cities in Asia

As Hong Kong’s Disneyland is suffering from losses, Tokyo Disneyland is expanding by debt. Shanghai’s Disneyland is the new regional trendsetter. In 2014, the worldwide attendance growth in the top-10 theme park groups exceeded 5 percent. These conglomerates – including Disney, Merlin, and Universal – had more than 392 million visitors. In the postwar era, […]

The End of Europe (As We Know It)?

The End of Europe (As We Know It)?

As the Eurozone is amid secular stagnation, its old fiscal, monetary and banking challenges are escalating, along with new threats, including the Brexit, demise of Schengen, anti-EU opposition and geopolitical friction. According to Dan Steinbock, Brussels can no longer avoid hard political decisions for or against an integrated Europe, with or without the euro. Since […]

The Struggle for Brazil- and Against the BRICS

The Struggle for Brazil- and Against the BRICS

While international media focuses on Brazil’s mass demonstrations against corruption, efforts behind the façade precipitate regime change, restoration of a pre-Lula order, and a struggle against the BRICS nations. The U.S. feels threatened by an era of multipolarity, which deeply implicates China, and other emerging economies. In August 2016, Rio de Janeiro should host South […]

Toward Nigeria’s Takeoff

Toward Nigeria’s Takeoff

After decolonization, Nigeria was expected to industrialize fast in order to benefit from rapid growth and increasing prosperity. Yet, that “growth miracle” has still not materialized. Perhaps it is time to learn from the right lessons. “We have crude oil, but you cannot go to filling station and get fuel refined in Nigeria, except we […]

Overcoming the Challenges of China’s Northeast

Overcoming the Challenges of China’s Northeast

photo: Connie Northeast China is under heavy pressure to reduce overcapacity. As the economy is rebalancing, so must “China’s Rustbelt.” But how? In the next five years, China’s steel sector should reduce capacity by 100-150 million metric tons, while the coal mining sector will cut capacity by 500 million tons, with another 500 million tons to […]

Europe’s Hard Choices: Change or Decline

Europe’s Hard Choices: Change or Decline

photo: Nicolas Raymond Today, Europe is struggling with a series of old and new challenges. Hard choices can no longer be deferred. For half a decade, Europe has struggled with excessive debt (which remains excessively high), fiscal adjustment (which has failed to revive the continent), systemic banking vulnerabilities (which have not been nullified), and competitiveness challenges […]

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