Noise & Signal in the Retail Sales Number

This week, investors, journalists, and economists expect that “Thursday’s release of July retail sales data by the Commerce Department could merit a market reaction, particularly if U.S. sales rebounded last month from a weak showing in June. Economists are expecting a 0.5% bump thanks to increased motor vehicle sales.” [Fortune, Aug 9th 2015]. Every month, […]

The Fed’s Options

RGE’s Kevin Harris has a nice preview of the July FOMC meeting: in brief, FOMC members are locked and loaded, ready for a September hike, though they will refrain from committing to a move and do their best not to cause an overreaction across the yield curve, where too few hikes are priced in relative to the […]

Is the Euro Irreversible? Computer Says ‘No’

Here is a logician’s or mathematician’s approach to disprove Draghi’s “the euro is irreversible” assertion, with an astrophysics aside. First question: Do you believe that the euro will exist in 10 billion years from now, with all 18 countries as members? [If yes, multiply by 10 and repeat until credibility is zero (the end of […]

Nowakowski on CNBC to Discuss Cyprus

RGE’s Senior Director of Research David Nowakowski appeared on CNBC to discuss the evolving situation in Cyprus, where depositors are moving out, Russian investors are cautious and bank runs have returned. View the videos below, or go to CNBC for clips here, here and here.

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