Brad Setser is a fellow in Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations
Recent Blog Posts by Brad Setser
- Forget global imbalances, it is now a Sino-American imbalance
- (Green) bamboo shoots?
- The US doesn’t name China a currency manipulator
- China reduced its dollar holdings in February
- China’s reserves are still growing, but at a slower pace than before
- Big changes, but not much adjustment: China’s March trade data
- Sign of strength or evidence of weakness? China’s dollar reserves
- China v US money market funds
- China’s call for a new international financial system
- Did the Fed bail out China by buying Treasuries?
- The fall in China’s exports caught up with the fall in China’s imports, at least for now
- Secrets from the Treasury’s Survey: It looks like China bought a lot of equities just before the stock market tumbled
- China’s record demand for Treasuries (and all US assets) in 2008
- “All central bankers are trying to diversify their reserves”
- Oil helps the September trade balance, but how long will the improvement last?
- Absence of global rebalancing watch – first q4 data point from China edition
- It is semi-official –China has $ 1 trillion in reserves …
- Lower vol = more imprudent bets?
- Stephen Jen – the anti-Roubini (and the anti-Setser)
- More Bolsa Familia, smaller fuel subsidies
- Could a US recession keep the US income balance from deteriorating …
- The club of puzzled dollar bears grows bigger
- The IMF on China
- The UAE still has 98% of its reserves in dollars
- Can David Rosenberg out-Roubini Roubini?
- Goldman economic research v. the Economist (Drivers of Chinese growth)
- Oil makes for strange bedfellows
- Is Brazil’s central bank betting on a US slowdown?
- Trillionaires R Us
- James Dorn leaves me confused –
- Why would a rise in Japan’s trade surplus be “unexpected”?
- Not so big worries for big oil — even at $60 a barrel, oil is rather expensive
- One more sign we live in a new gilded age – Europe is once again the world’s financial center …
- Yet more evidence China has far more reserves than it needs … courtesy of Olivier Jeanne and Romain Ranciere of the IMF
- Christmas Kansan
- The Economist v. Nick Lardy
- Richard McGregor helps to solve the mystery of China’s slow q3 reserve growth.
- Washington Post v. New York Times on China’s auto exports
- The impact of central bank demand on US bond yields.
- A trillion dollars here, a trillion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money
- Another month, another $100b plus in debt exports …
- The real winner from the United States’ current trade with China …
- Russia, stabilizing speculator?
- China tops the US — at least in the goods exporting league table
- Not quite a trillion
- Is France the US of the Eurozone — at least when it comes to housing?
- Record trade deficit, hedge funds turn into dollar bulls
- The FX market doesn’t think the US should adjust … at least not right now.
- The use and misuse of (certain) statistics
- So, what would happen to the US if China let the RMB float …
- Stephen Jen, Eternal optimist
- Yet another reason to sell yen …
- Italian (oil) realism
- Are US trade politics really driven by the profits US banks hope to earn in China?
- A world turned upside down …
- Why is 2045 more important than 2007?
- Are higher oil prices good for Europe?
- TV Roubini v. blog Roubini
- Martin Wolf: The US had no choice …
- Bretton Woods 2 lives
- Daniel Gross is right …
- Yet more evidence no one wants to hold RMB (and the RMB isn’t really undervalued)
- The IMF did its job (more or less) last time around …
- Exit Schumer-Graham; Enter Schumer-Graham-Baucus-Grassley ….
- What is the most important price in the world economy?
- Paulson may (or may not) have a strong dollar policy …. New Zealand, though, clearly doesn’t have a strong kiwi policy
- The deterioration in the US income balance has just begun ….
- Richard McGregor on China’s (huge) reserves
- The Economist sides with Tyler Cowen
- Hmmm – the PBoC still manages the reserves shifted to the state banks
- Why China’s $1 trillion in reserves are unlikely to be of much use in a banking crisis
- Unintentional irony watch (hedge fund edition)
- Is it Europe’s turn to rise a housing bubble?
- The problem with fair value calculations … JP Morgan, the dollar and China
- On track for a $900b current account deficit (assuming the financing is there)
- Where oh where are Russia’s reserves?
- China’s future?
- $33b a month doesn’t cut it …
- Too much to read …
- Why are Chinese exports to the world growing faster than Chinese exports to the US?
- Gunboat diplomacy isn’t what it used to be …
- Poor countries financing rich countries watch
- Will the good cop (Hank Paulson) get results …
- So, just who is financing the US deficit? (My work on global reserve growth)
- The IMF can do better
- Welcome Felix Salmon …
- Not quite so bright after all … (The July trade data)
- The Wall Street Journal (finally) takes note: Europe, not the US, explains the recent surge in China’s exports
- So much good information comes out in the week before the annual meetings …
- A trillion dollars doesn’t get the respect it used to …
- Watch out China, you may soon be (financially) out-gunned …
- Tyler Cowen apparently did not read my China testimony! The RMB’s value does influence trade flows
- Are all beneficiaries of trade diffuse and unorganized?
- Can the G-7 (and the IMF) match Ken Rogoff?
- Yet more evidence that the US is the best place in the world to invest ..
- Let me turn the Labor day microphone over to those (closet) radicals at PIMCO
- Why aren’t Chinese reserves growing faster?
- Apparently, a global slowdown driven by a slowing US is GOOD for the dollar
- The facts, just the facts (US goods trade)
- Do we live in a world dominated by private flows? Or official flows?
- Wages, Walmart and the debate about the Global Economy –
- Europe, engine of global demand growth …
- Is there any meaningful distinction left between the core and the periphery? Bernanke says no, I disagree …
- It is nice to occasionally be right! China confirms it holds around 70% of its reserves in dollars
- My testimony on China – and the Bergsten/ McKinnon debate …
- George Magnus makes an important point. If the oil surplus is rising and Asia’s surplus isn’t falling …
- So, does China export oil?
- Is Adam Posen talking about Germany – or the US?
- Dollar depreciation has increased exports. But Andrew Tilton is also on to something … to export you need to invest in your export sector
- PIMCO is betting on the continuation of Bretton Woods 2
- The World Bank Beijing office now estimates that China’s 2006 current account surplus will top $200b
- Foreign demand for US debt was kind of weak in the second quarter
- I don’t think Stephen Jen can argue that I have been inconsistent.
- Despite what Lex says, the euro/ dollar does matter
- The June trade data (a day late)
- The June trade balance (a day early)
- Did foreign firms tire of China? Or did China tire of FDI?
- A couple of (mental) light bulbs …
- Oil, foreign flight, consumer burnout
- Stephen Jen is right
- Trade politics could get nasty fast
- Good news (if you care about the quality of education in Kansas)
- How long can the US retain a comparative advantage as a “storehouse for wealth”
- Memo to Mike Mandel: Wal-Mart doesn’t look like it is creating all that much dark matter …
- Growth slowing, oil rising … not good
- Russia’s central bank deserves some serious credit
- The premier speaks, the analysts listen …
- And the money keeps rolling in …
- Is Saudi Arabia the new IMF?
- A trillion dollars does tend to concentrate the mind …
- Dwindling foreign demand for Treasuries …
- Adding to echo chamber started by the New Economist, with a bit on China thrown in
- Is bad news for the world good news for the dollar …
- Chinese growth accelerates, RMB depreciates
- Do not forget about Norway – but also don’t put too much weight on the details of the TIC data.
- If the IMF wants to be relevant in the debate on global rebalancing ….
- Edmund Andrews’ article on tax revenue volatility is a gem
- A new club of creditors …
- Far be it from me to disagree with Robert Rubin
- More variations on 7.99. The world changes, Chinese policy doesn’t.
- US oil imports (in volume terms) may have plateaued, but has the US trade deficit peaked?
- How long can non-oil imports remain flat if the US economy continues to grow? (The May trade data)
- So, where is the rebalancing?
- A fringe benefit from over-paid CEOs
- DeLong: It will all be OK … unless it isn’t
- Variations on 7.99
- Still dependent on foreign central banks …
- Paging Michael Mandel. I give up … there isn’t that much to worry about. At least not judging from the 2005 NIIP data.
- DeLong is right. If the US wants to end up like Australia, US trade deficit needs to fall – unless foreigners continue to do terribly on their investments in the US.
- Levered long/ long funds …
- Another month, another $30b for China’s central bank … but what happened in April?
- A soft landing means sustained $1 trillion plus (7% of GDP) current account deficits …
- Only some emerging market currencies have corrected this year.
- Hmmm. Iran isn’t like other oil producing countries …
- So, is Michael Mandel right? Did intangible income (dark matter) ride to the rescue in the first quarter, offsetting rising US debt?
- Paging Edward Hugh: Demographics do not explain the recent rise in Chinese savings
- A hard landing in 2006 – just not in the US?
- The first quarter current account statistics are kind to the USA
- Disappearing Finacing — $45-50b in long-term flows is not enough
- Disappearing Debt
- The shifting balance of oil power
- Calculation envy – the last US owned Treasury bill will be bought by the People’s Bank in 2012 …
- Maybe Disney doesn’t generate so much dark matter after all
- No comment is really necessary (May Chinese Trade Data)
- Oil smuggling is to the Iraqi economy as … exports are to the US economy
- Not quite as bad as I expected (the April trade numbers)
- You read it here first (Russia is diversifying its reserves)
- One small point of disagreement with Martin Wolf on China
- The IMF hasn’t lost clout because private capital flows have ballooned.
- Currency crises are not good for your (political) health
- There should have been a dollar crisis three years ago …
- Yet more evidence China is an outlier
- The slumping Riyal (and RMB)
- Paulson, not Evans … but don’t look here for an explanation of what it means
- Interesting recent work on China
- China probably holds over 70% of its reserves in dollars
- Have emerging markets changed more than the markets?
- If OPEC’s unofficial price floor for oil is now $50
- Do China’s fast growing dollar reserves guarantee a sound banking system?
- You know, there are safe havens that do not have a current account deficit of $1 trillion …
- I thought hedge funds were supposed to be hedged
- Martin Feldstein is right
- The dollar is still a currency you run to …
- Can an unbalanced world also be a (financially) stable world?
- If Zambia can create assets that appeal to US investors …
- One more reason the dollar is under a bit of pressure …
- So where exactly are Russia’s reserves
- Not quite sure the federal debt is an “ungoverned force”
- Not quite as good as they look (the March trade numbers)
- I must be the least dovish of all China doves …
- Not quite manipulation
- Self promotion watch (Treasury foreign exchange report edition)
- So, where is the rebalancing?
- The dollar index: The G-7 of currency indexes
- Searching for the origins of dark matter
- Muddle through until the end of 2008, and then it is someone else’s problem
- The dollar is a currency you run to, not from
- Stephen Jen knows currencies, not communiqués
- And the money keeps rolling in …
- The BRICS lend, the US spends
