Confessions of an Inflation Truther

There is a group of folks who believe that inflation is much higher than the numbers in the official reports. Paul Krugman calls them “inflation truthers.” In the 2000s, I might have been considered part of that crowd. I recognized that inflation data wasn’t being reported accurately, and said as much. I coined the phrase “inflation ex-inflation” […]

Dick Cheney Would Make a Terrible Trader

I have spilled a great deal of pixels and time in these pages discussing the importance of not letting your biases get the best of you as an investor. (See this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, and this). Further, when you are wrong, you must do more than merely acknowledge it: Embrace the error, understand it and learn from it. Traders who don’t learn […]

54% of Republicans Say We’ve Got Too Much Inequality

It’s a Myth that Conservatives Don’t Care About Inequality We’ve noted for years that it’s a myth that conservatives accept runaway inequality. Conservatives are very concerned about the stunning collapse of upward mobility. A poll from Gallup shows that a majority of Republicans think we’ve got too much inequality: Two out of three Americans are dissatisfied with the way income and wealth are currently […]

Has the Dollar Really Lost 97% of Its Value? (No)

  One of the favorite tropes of the “End the Fed” crowd is the “falling purchasing power of the U.S. dollar.” Google that phrase, and you will be rewarded with 91,100,000 results. (drop the “U.S.” and it doubles to 187,000,000 results). The problem is, nearly all of these arguments are wrong. As Matt Busigin of Macrofugue points out (echoed […]

The Bubble in Bubbles

Source: Barron’s If you have been paying any kind of attention to the mainstream media the past few years, you may have noticed quite a bit of bubble chatter. We have a tech IPO bubble and a stock bubble and of course a bond bubble. This is caused by a global central bank QE  bubble. […]

How to Reduce the Noise Levels in Your Investment Process

“Signal-to-noise ratio” is an engineering concept that focuses on the amount of useful information being received compared with false or useless data. This is an especially important concept to investors. Over the past few years, I have been reducing the meaningless distractions in my investing process. You should, too. You want less of the annoying […]

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