The Year Ahead: Where to Invest in 2017

The Year Ahead: Where to Invest in 2017

Source  Key takeaway – Across the globe, populism and protectionism are on the rise and macro fundamentals remain weak. In this challenging context, growth will remain subdued in 2017, hampered by sluggish investment and productivity, ever-accumulating savings and modest inflation. With the exception of the Unites States (US), developed markets (DMs) will stagnate, burdened by […]

Italy: Willingness to Reform Is the Issue, Not the Referendum

Italy: Willingness to Reform Is the Issue, Not the Referendum

Source Key takeaway – Italy’s prospects are lacklustre and growth is stagnant. The political system is focused on privilege preservation, fostering populist feelings. Reforms are needed but – due to a reluctant electorate and a cumbersome legislative process – are difficult to implement. Over the past three years, Renzi’s government announced many important reforms, but […]

Election Time: Will Populism Block Effective, Needed Policies?

Election Time: Will Populism Block Effective, Needed Policies?

  Key takeaway – The global economy is stagnating, financial markets are jittery and citizens disfranchised. Effective policy options are available, but – alas – most are not politically viable. Over the next 12 months, key elections will take place in the US, France and Germany and a constitutional referendum in Italy. Populist parties are […]

Italy: Can Reforms Lift Growth Prospects?

Italy: Can Reforms Lift Growth Prospects?

Key takeaway – The Italian economy is large, relatively diversified and sturdy. Historically, growth has been driven by external factors (e.g.: the “economic miracle” after World War II) or political efforts (e.g.: competitive devaluations and fiscal spending between the 1970s and the 1990s). For decades, innovation and international competitiveness lagged most peers. After joining the […]

Global Outlook: The Next Five Years

Global Outlook: The Next Five Years

Global outlook: the next five years Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi Key takeaway – Over the next five years, mega-trends will not support an acceleration of global growth. Consumption, investment and productivity will remain sluggish, inflation low. Macro fundamentals are weak: high debt and unemployment will constrain performance. Developed markets (DMs) will stagnate and emerging markets (EMs) […]

Turkey’s Failed Coup: What’s Next?

Turkey’s Failed Coup: What’s Next?

photo: RadikalBlog Key takeaway – In Turkey, a coup attempt failed in less than 12 hours. President Erdoğan has declared that “the government is in control” and he is “not going to compromise”. What is next? Likely, Erdoğan’s popularity will increase, and constitutional changes will lead to a presidential system. Instability will continue, crackdowns on […]

Brexit: a déjà vu?

Brexit: a déjà vu?

Key takeaway – History has proven that the United Kingdom (UK) is a reluctant European: it systematically questions – but eventually integrates in – the European Union (EU). On June 23, 2016, a referendum will decide whether the UK should remain in the EU. This is not a first: in 1974, just one year after […]

Understanding China’s Rise: The Role of Captive Savings

Understanding China’s Rise: The Role of Captive Savings

photo: Steve Passlow Key takeaway – Over the last three decades, China’s contribution to global growth tripled. The interplay of three domestic factors enabled a growth acceleration: abundant cheap labour flocked into the industrial sector and accepted the financial repression of its savings, which in turn funded massive investment via subsidized lending to state-owned enterprises (SOEs). […]

Turkey: The Banking Sector Needs Profitability-Enhancing Reforms

Turkey: The Banking Sector Needs Profitability-Enhancing Reforms

photo: Jeremy Vandel Key takeaway – Turkey’s economy remains resilient, but low savings hinder growth prospects and weaken the banking sector. Turkish banks – essential for economic growth and job creation – need to raise additional capital by end-2016, but suffer from declining profitability. Meanwhile, macro risks are rising, driven by geopolitical risks, foreign exchange (FX) […]

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