Since this morning’s industrial production and constrcution figures came out, economists have been running through the numbers to come up with estimates of fourth quarter gross domestic product.
Both industrial production and manufacturing were flat in November, while construction output – which is highly volatile – dropped by 4%. The official figures, not for the first time, contrast with the strength of the surveys.
But the official figures are what the Office for National Statistics will use when calculating its estimate of Q4 growth, to be published on January 28. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research projects 0.7% Q4 growth, weaker than the 0.8% recorded in the second and third quarters. Many City economists project 0.6%.
This piece is cross-posted from EconomicsUK.com with permission.