EconoMonitor

The Market In a Minute

Market breadth turned decidedly negative during last week’s shortened trading week, as the equal-weight S&P ETF (RSP) lost 1.1% compared to a loss of 0.64% for the S&P 500. As corporate earnings season comes to an end, revenue surprises have started to slow, while bottom-line earnings continue to be relatively strong.

The trade

An overabundance of economic reports this week is likely to add to volatility. If Monday’s reports cause a rally, take money off the table — especially from higher-beta stocks. Be patient, and should we be blessed with a 5%-plus selloff in the next week or two, buy. See my column here from last week: 10 Reasons the S&P will trade at 1,600 this year.

This week’s market-moving events

  • Monday: Dallas Fed Survey is released at 10:30 a.m.
  • Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller and home prices are released at 9:00 a.m., new-home sales are released at 10:00 a.m., as are consumer-confidence figures and The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey results.
  • Wednesday: Durable goods at 8:30 a.m. and Pending Home Sales at 10:00 AM
  • Thursday: GDP figures will be released (I expect some strong upward revisions) at 8:30, as will Jobless Claims. Chicago PMI figures come out at 9:45 AM
  • Friday: March 1st – we will likely wake up to headlines of sequestration. $85 billion in cuts, partially offset by $60 billion in Sandy relief funds. Motor Vehicle sales, Personal Income, PMI Manufacturing, Consumer Sentiment, ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending figures all are released.

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Aaron Menenberg is Foreign Policy and Energy analyst, and a Future Leader with Foreign Policy Initiative. He also co-hosts Podlitical Risk (@podliticalrisk). He is a graduate student in international relations at The Maxwell School of Syracuse University. Previously he has worked at Praescient Analytics, The Hudson Institute, for the Israeli Ministry of Defense, and at the IBM Corporation. The views expressed are his own, and you can follow him on Twitter @AaronMenenberg. He welcomes questions and comments at menenbergaaron@gmail.com.