EconoMonitor

ZIRP and QE: Central Bankers’ Narcotics of Choice

Singer Robert Palmer was “addicted to love”. The world is now addicted to low interest rates. Central banks also display signs of acronym-o-mania, an addiction to acronyms: ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy), QE (Quantitative Easing) etc.

Following the global financial crisis, policy interest rates in the USA, Europe, UK and Japan were reduced sharply. The US Federal Reserve has committed to holding rates around zero for the foreseeable future. Faced with deep-seated economic problems, other central banks are following a similar strategy. Where interest rates are zero and cannot be lowered further, novel forms of monetary accommodation, quantitative easing are in vogue, to keep rates low.

Low interest rates have become a panacea for economic problems. In part, this is driven by the unwillingness of governments to run budget deficits, reflecting increasing scrutiny of public finances and investor reluctance to finance such deficits, as highlighted by the ongoing European debt crisis.

The US has undertaken 3 doses of QE to date. Based on the experience of Japan (which is up to QE 8 or 9), further doses may be administered. Federal Reserve may even undertake direct purchase of risky assets such as corporate debt or even stocks, following the precedent set by the Bank of Japan

But like all addictions, low interest rates are dangerous. They may be also ineffective in addressing the real economic issues.

Unreal Economics…

Financial markets have generally reacted positively to low rates, pushing up stock and financial asset prices. But low rates point to a worrying lack of growth. Low rates also highlight the increasing risk of deflation and a severe contraction in economic activity. Given that growth and inflation are the primary requirements for a relatively painless reduction in elevated debt levels globally, the enthusiasm among investors and citizens is curious.

The clear hope is that low rates will revive the “animal spirits” of the economy. But the ability of low rates to boost real economic activity is unclear. The cost of funds is only one factor in the complex drivers of demand.

In the housing market, demand depends on many factors – the level of required deposit, existing home equity (price of house received less outstanding debt), the ability to sell a current property, income levels and employment security. Low rates do little, in themselves, to address these issues. In the absence of growing demand for their products, businesses are unlikely to borrow to invest in new capacity based purely on the low cost of debt.

Low rates also decrease income of retirees with fixed interest investments, reducing demand.

Savings from lower interest rates, such as mortgage rates, are simply being used to retire debt, rather than increase consumption. While the reduction in debt levels is necessary, lower rates will, of itself, do little to boost demand and economic activity.

Research by the Federal Reserve indicates limited impact of ZIRP and QE on the real economy.  Stimulus from low interest rates is also temporary, with demand likely to revert to normal levels once rates increase.

Strange Days…

Low interest rates distort economic activity, especially where real interest rates (nominal rates adjusted for inflation) are low or negative.

Low cost of debt encourages substitution of labour with capital in the production process. Given 60-70% of activity in developed economies is driven by consumption, this reduces aggregate demand as employment and income levels decrease.

Low rates favour borrowing, encouraging substitution of debt for equity in financing structures, increasing financial risk. Where companies and nations are over extended, this decreases incentives to reduce debt. In fact, low interest rates are economically identical to a disguised reduction of the principal amount of the loan.

The effect of low rates on savings behaviour is complex. Low rates can discourage savings, creating a disincentive for capital accumulation which would reduce overall debt levels. Lower earning on savings should encourage spending stimulating economic activity but may perversely encourage greater saving to provide for future needs reducing consumption and demand. Low rates also increase the funding gap for defined benefit pension funds.

Low rates do not necessarily increase the supply of credit as risk aversion and higher returns on capital encourage banks to invest in government securities, eschewing loans. Low interest rates also provide an artificial subsidy to financial institutions, allowing them to borrow cheaply and then invest in higher yielding safe assets such as governments bonds.

Low rates encourage mispricing of risk, creating asset bubbles.

Low costs of borrowing encourage investors to seek investments with income, feeding recent demand for high dividend paying shares and low grade debt. Driven by low rates, investors have increased investment in complex capital securities issued by banks and corporations, taking on additional risk, which they may not fully understand, to generate higher income.

Low rates also feed asset price inflation.  Minimal opportunity costs allow investors to hold assets that pay no income price in the hope of price increases, evidenced in demand for commodities and alternative investments such as art works. Money tied up in non-productive investments driven by artificial low rates reduces the flow of capital and economic activity.

Announcing QE3, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that the plan was directed at boosting house and asset prices through purchases of mortgage backed securities. The comments were astonishing, failing to acknowledge the fact that a housing bubble caused by excessively low interest rates under his predecessor was a major contributor to the present economic problems. The suggestion was also startling in that it acknowledged that QE, of itself would not significantly increase economic activity directly.

Externals…

Whatever its effects on economic activity, ZIRP and QE have been effective in helping finance government borrowing and also weakening the currency.

For example, the Federal Reserve has directly or indirectly been purchasers of around 60-70% of all US Treasury bond issuance. The Federal Reserve purchases Treasury bonds as part of their QE programs. Reserves within the banking system created by the Fed system allow financial institutions to purchase additional Treasury bonds.

ZIRP and QE have helped weaken the dollar. Despite bouts of dollar buying on its safe haven status, the US dollar has significantly weakened over the last 2 years. On a trade weighted basis, the US dollar has lost around 20% against major currencies since 2009. The US dollar has lost around 30% against the Swiss Franc, 25% against the Canadian dollar, 35% against the Australian dollar and 20% against the Singapore dollar over the same period.

The weaker US dollar allows the US to enhance its competitive position for exports – in effect, the devaluation is a de facto cut in costs. This is designed to drive economic growth.

As the US dollar weakens it also improves America’s external position. US foreign investments and overseas income gain in value. But the major benefit is in relation to debt owned by foreigners. As almost of its government debt is denominated in US dollars, devaluation reduces the value of its outstanding debt, making it easier for the US to service its debt.

It forces existing investors to keep rolling over debt to avoid realising currency losses on their investments. It encourages existing investors to increase investment, to “double down” to lower their average cost of US dollars and US government debt. As John Connally, US Treasury Secretary under President Nixon belligerently observed: “Our dollar, but your problem.”

Internationally, low interest rates distort currency values and encourage volatile, short term, cross-border capital flows as investors seek higher returns.

Low interest rates and quantitative easing has led to a significant shift of money into emerging countries. This has created destabilising asset bubbles and inflationary pressures. Higher commodity prices, driven by low rates, exacerbate inflation pressures requiring higher rates and reducing growth in emerging nations.

As currency reserves are invested in US dollars and other developed currencies, emerging nations have suffered losses of their national savings as these reserve currencies fall in value.

But a policy of seeking to lower the value of the US dollar or any currency risks retaliation. Countries may be forced to implement competitive QE programs or engineer competitive devaluations of their currency to protect trade and financial interests. It also risks imposition of restrictions on free movement of capital and goods and services, reducing the effectiveness of ZIRP and QE policies.

Zombification…

Experience in Japan with ZIRP and QE policies over an extended period suggests that such policies damage the structure of the economy. The policies significantly distort the cost of capital and finance in an economy and impede adjustment.

Low interest rates encourage “mal-investment”. Companies do not make necessary adjustments to strategy or business practices as the low funding costs enable them to continuing operating. Unproductive investments are not restructured or sold and additional low returning investments are made due to the artificially understated cost of capital. Ability to issue low cost debt allows governments to make unproductive investments or expenditures.

Subsidised by low rates, banks may not write off bad loans, preferring instead to restructure the debt as low interest rates allow zombie companies to continue operations.

Research studies by the IMF indicate that such policies increase the ultimate loan losses to banks. Low rates also encourage excessive risk taking by banks increasing risk and may ultimately resulting in additional cost to the government and taxpayer.

Resolution of the banking problems ultimately absorbs significant government financial resources.  It also restricts the supply of credit to the wider economy affecting economic activity.

In effect, essential restructuring, removing the detritus of previous crises, is delayed. Misallocation of capital deepens the malaise and makes ultimate resolution more costly and difficult.

Detoxification…

One oft quoted definition of madness is repetition of a serious of actions and expecting a different outcome. The Japanese experience points to the limits of ZIRP and QE over a prolonged period of time. Yet central bankers and policy makers in developed countries believe that this is the correct medicine for current economic problems. They fail to recognize that if such policy were effective, Japan’s economic position should have returned to some semblance of normality by now.

Central banks also convince themselves that ZIRP and QE policies are temporary. They believe that will be able to exit from a policy of low rates when appropriate. It is reminiscent of Ashly Lorenzana’s definition of addiction in her journal Sex, Drugs & Being an Escort: “When you can give up something any time, as long as it’s next Tuesday”.

A sustained period of low rates, like the one the world is experiencing, makes it difficult to increase the cost of borrowing. Levels of debt encouraged by low rates would become rapidly unsustainable at higher rates. In effect, the policy compounds existing issues, making the problems ever more intractable.

ZIRP and QE do not address the real issues but central banks and market participants believe that there is no alternative. Celebrity policy makers are relying on the advice of celebrity Russell Brand: “The priority of any addict is to anaesthetise the pain of living to ease the passage of day with some purchased relief.”

© 2012 Satyajit Das All Rights Reserved.

This paper is based on the ideas first published as “Low rates: the drug we can all do without” Financial Times (31 January 2012)

12 Responses to “ZIRP and QE: Central Bankers’ Narcotics of Choice”

peteNovember 13th, 2012 at 11:16 am

I think one can help to model this situation by trying to put people into categories and then try to think like them.

99% of public
They will never read this article and if they do start they would get bored and quit.
This even though this is well written and not hard to follow.

Super Rich
Maybe your right but if I was not addicted to money I would never have become super rich.
Bad policy generates opportunities for me in the medium run, so I will play those.

Political leaders
Maybe your right but I cannot communicate this to my voters so I will let the central bankers handle this

Central Bankers
I have made a career of doing the best I can in a bad situation, I must deal with powerful interest who after this job will be my friends. Nobody has my back, I am going to get blamed so I better keep some powerful allies

Economists
Pretty much like central bankers except they are allowed to say a lot more because they don't make decisions

Blog Posters
We can be the truth tellers because no one reads these blogs, we have zero power, we are deluded by the fact that we can broadcast to the world, we got too much time on our hands etc

Saviors
Who this is I don't know. They may have beards or funny clothes. They will have some unique set of characteristics which gives them power without corruption. Perhaps it will not be a direct intervention by God but instead there might be fourth member of the trinity.
The father , the son, the holy ghost, and the "super world citizen.
I guess at this point I am praying for a miracle.

Does anybody read these comments?

peteNovember 13th, 2012 at 11:35 am

Further I must state for my own sanity that situation is much worse than you are mentioning.

ZIRP is creating economic distortions and economic distortions are producing social distortions which are producing economic distortions. The metrics of economics ought to be somewhat in line with a metric of social good. But one can find some instances where this is not the case. The obvious one is cigarette smoking which apparently contributes to the economy through sales and through the costs of health care. ( yes I know the argument that it kills off old people which is a net benefit). Over eating is another strange economic stimulus. You spend money to get fat and money to get thin. Now we consume to get happy and consume to cover up the unhappiness because we consume and all of this contributes to GDP.

Now all this has devastating impacts on the environment. This is the true crisis. And if it is hard to get the public to act on ZIRP it is even harder to get them to act on destroying the environment. If we do not just think of our lives as ourselves but the lives of our children and grandchildren(just those not many more generations)we are not just addicted we are suicidal.

Last time I checked being suicidal is not a good thing, unless of course you are cheering for earths lower life forms.

Does anybody read these comments? Hello Earth?

peteNovember 13th, 2012 at 12:03 pm

Getting Anyone to Pay Attention

First when I speak I have to keep your attention. If you know what I am going to talk about you already are giving me some level of credibility. But as I deliver a product to you likely will be checking the quality of the product as it is being delivered. This means at any time you may stop the transaction. A bit like sex. A lot like sex.

If I say information is power, time is money, money is power you may agree with me. You may agree with me that the only way to get better is to get educated. But if I follow through with some of the natural consequences of this you likely will end the transaction. That is because of the adage change is frightening and the result to stress is the flight or fight neither of which will probably make you continue to listen to what I have to say.

It is incredibly stressful to think that our lives, our world are in such a deteriorated state. I would claim an impending environmental disaster is a deteriorated state.
And we are in a position where no matter what we do for ourselves our personal lives will be not a whole lot better. This brings up our mortality in two ways. We can see the mortality of our society, of our children and we can see the mortality of ourselves because no matter how much we spend we get old and sick. This is no fun at all. Not at all.

This is a huge problem. And if we think we can stop our own mortality or the mortality of a society essentially gone mad, then we must really question our own sanity.
Questioning you own sanity is no fun. I can tell you that from personal experience.

And as we enter these high states of stress do we make sensible decisions?
I think not.

So are we going to have any serious discussions about information transfers about the problems of time, money, power, and information? Very disturbing.

But discussions about getting slightly more disposable income that somehow will allow our lives to be incrementally better, very comforting.

I think the author is a bit anxious over this kind of behavior. A common definition of insanity is to do the same thing and hope for a change. A common cause of stress and finally insanity is a feeling responsibility without control.

Does anybody read this?

EdDolanNovember 13th, 2012 at 2:22 pm

Yes, it is true that zero rates are associated with many adverse consequences. My question is this: Are central bank policies (QE) the cause of these adverse consequences? Or would even less desirable consequences flow from the opposite policy, a policy of trying to raise interest rates while the economy is well below potential?

Another way to put the question is whether we could achieve prosperity by raising interest rates, say, by undertaking massive open market sales of securities to mop up all the excess reserves in the banking system, or by raising administratively-controlled rates like the rate the central bank pays on excess reserves.

I do not think the argument "zero rates are bad" is complete without carefully spelling out the policies and transmission mechanisms through which central bank efforts to raise rates would make us better off.

Robert P. CoutinhoNovember 21st, 2012 at 8:42 pm

Yes, I read them. I am part of the 47%. I have followed S. Das since a long time ago. I wish that somebody in some nation would make him their Sec. of Treasury (I would love to see him here, but seriously doubt that he could get past a Republican filibuster.)

Robert P. CoutinhoNovember 21st, 2012 at 8:46 pm

Thanks, I was kinda thinkin' dis meself. I wonder if the ZIRP is the tail wagging the dog or the dog wagging the tail. I suspect that if the Fed increased interest rates, we would have the latter case.

KateMarch 5th, 2013 at 5:40 pm

The Fed needs to create an exit strategy. One such strategy would be to pre announce that it will raise interest rates by .25% starting in, say, December 2013 and continue raising rates by .25 one time, every 9 months for 2 years, for example….then they would stop, and "see how things are going in the economy."

If they do a slow and gradual and preannounced tiny increase, the effect will be that the market will not be shocked, and people who want to buy will actually run out to lock in the rates before they rise.

This actually happened in the mid 1980's when rates were rising. I was just out of college and was a mortgage broker then. But at 17%, it was amazing how people still bought and paid such high rates.

If the Fed does this gradually, it wont shock the markets and wont shut out too many buyers.

The big problem will be if rates continue to rise without stopping, that will deflate house prices again and will choke off buying.

I really fear the Fed will wait too long and they will not be able to exit from QE without creating a housing market and stock market crash.

KateMarch 5th, 2013 at 6:18 pm

If you look at the chart of the 10 year treasury, and apply a stockbrocker's technical analysis to the chart, it looks like it has formed a "bottom" and is now in a "bullish" formation. So this means interest rates in the U.S. are in a bullish rising trend and no matter what the Fed does, this new trend cannot be changed by the Fed. So even 85 billion per month is not controlling this market. Therefore, the end of lowest rates is near. I therefore believe the Fed should structure a preannouncement of rising rates to give the markets the illusion that the Fed has some control over this, which they might not have, its not 100% clear.

ny mortgage companyMay 20th, 2013 at 6:29 am

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