EconoMonitor

The Market in a Minute

Although the S&P 500 lost about 1.5% this week, I believe stocks want to move higher. Pre-market futures indicated a higher open each of the five trading sessions, only to be pressured lower during trading hours on worries over the fiscal-cliff. Once a resolution to the fiscal-cliff is apparent, expect a significant rally.

Next Weeks’ Market Moving Events:

Monday:

  • Oil prices may gyrate as tensions between Israel and Hamas continue to rise.
  • The Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM will be the key economic report of the day.

Tuesday:

  • Housing Starts data is released.

Wednesday:

  • The weeks’ busiest reporting day, is also likely to be a light volume day.
  • Jobless Claims, Consumer Sentiment, Leading Indicators and EIA
  • Petroleum reports are all on tap.

Thursday: Happy Thanksgiving

Friday:

  • Expect light trading volume on this half-day.
  • Should there be a rally investors might be able to take advantage of some option pricing discrepancies today.

The Trade:

With politicians on holiday, action in the Middle East heating up, and our expectation of a volatile December, continue to take advantage of any broad market rally to sell weaker names and buy puts for your portfolio.

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Thomas Grennes Thoughts From Across the Atlantic

Thomas Grennes is a professor of economics at the North Carolina State University and a former visiting faculty member at the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga. His research has dealt with various aspects of international economics, including open economy macroeconomics, international finance, and international trade in agricultural products. Recent research topics have included macroeconomic aspects of the Great Moderation, offshore outsourcing, sovereign wealth funds, and the relationship between government debt and economic growth. Earlier work dealt with emerging market issues in the Baltic countries and Russia and trade and macro policies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic history topics include the Columbian Exchange of plants and animals, the effects on food markets of introducing mechanical refrigeration, and the integration of Tsarist Russia into the world grain market. When he is not involved in economics, he enjoys mountain hiking.

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