EconoMonitor

The Market in a Minute

Although the S&P 500 lost about 1.5% this week, I believe stocks want to move higher. Pre-market futures indicated a higher open each of the five trading sessions, only to be pressured lower during trading hours on worries over the fiscal-cliff. Once a resolution to the fiscal-cliff is apparent, expect a significant rally.

Next Weeks’ Market Moving Events:

Monday:

  • Oil prices may gyrate as tensions between Israel and Hamas continue to rise.
  • The Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM will be the key economic report of the day.

Tuesday:

  • Housing Starts data is released.

Wednesday:

  • The weeks’ busiest reporting day, is also likely to be a light volume day.
  • Jobless Claims, Consumer Sentiment, Leading Indicators and EIA
  • Petroleum reports are all on tap.

Thursday: Happy Thanksgiving

Friday:

  • Expect light trading volume on this half-day.
  • Should there be a rally investors might be able to take advantage of some option pricing discrepancies today.

The Trade:

With politicians on holiday, action in the Middle East heating up, and our expectation of a volatile December, continue to take advantage of any broad market rally to sell weaker names and buy puts for your portfolio.

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Aaron Menenberg is Foreign Policy and Energy analyst, and a Future Leader with Foreign Policy Initiative. He also co-hosts Podlitical Risk (@podliticalrisk). He is a graduate student in international relations at The Maxwell School of Syracuse University. Previously he has worked at Praescient Analytics, The Hudson Institute, for the Israeli Ministry of Defense, and at the IBM Corporation. The views expressed are his own, and you can follow him on Twitter @AaronMenenberg. He welcomes questions and comments at menenbergaaron@gmail.com.