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Everything You Know About Investing is Wrong …


Source: Vanguard

 

Over the weekend, I set the Closer Look at Mythology graphic to post early this morning.

By sheer coincidence, Meb Faber pointed us to the above chart from Vanguard looking at the correlation between traditional valuation metrics and subsequent investment returns. Given the serendipity of how similar the messages were in both, I thought it was worth exploring further.

What I find worth especially discussing is the simple observation that so many of the traditional metrics — the assumed truths of Wall Street — fail to withstand close scrutiny as having forecasting value. These include such varied metrics dividend yields, economic growth, Fed Model, profit margins, and past stock returns.

A few simple criticisms of the Vanguard piece are in order; yes, they are talking their book — forecasting is folly, asset allocation into broad indices is the best bet for investors — but that does not undercut their analysis. Perhaps a more significant complaint is a peeve of mine about single variable analysis — that looking at any one metric alone to explain complex systems (such as investment outcomes) is doomed from the start.

Regardless, this paper is worth reading. Keep it in mind the next time you see someone trotted out on TV to claim that stocks are a great/terrible buy RIGHT NOW because of any single one variable . . .

This piece is cross-posted from The Big Picture with permission.

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Emre Deliveli The Kapali Carsi

Emre Deliveli is a freelance consultant, part-time lecturer in economics and columnist. Previously, Emre worked as economist for Citi Istanbul, covering Turkey and the Balkans. He was previously Director of Economic Studies at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey in Ankara and has has also worked at the World Bank, OECD, McKinsey and the Central Bank of Turkey. Emre holds a B.A., summa cum laude, from Yale University and undertook his PhD studies at Harvard University, in Economics.

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