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Steve Keen: Should We Be Worried About Australia’s Private Debt Level?

In a presentation Australian economist Steve Keen delivered recently in New Zealand, he describes how, prior to the GFC, he was compiling data for his role as an expert witness in a predatory loan case for NSW Legal Aid. Looking to parse the accuracy of a claim that private debt to GDP had been rising “exponentially,” Keen found that the data indeed showed a near perfectly exponential rise from 1964 on—a clear warning sign that such a trajectory was unsustainable.

Although Australia and New Zealand fared better in the GFC than did Europe or the U.S., Keen’s subsequent research into UK and U.S. Treasury data show that while the U.S. experienced a sharp dropoff in private debt, the UK is rather among the worst countries in terms of aggregate private debt to GDP, and Australia has yet to see a significant turnaround; though when it does, it will call into question the viability of an economic model premised on such growth.

View the video below, or read the original post here.

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Thomas Grennes Thoughts From Across the Atlantic

Thomas Grennes is a professor of economics at the North Carolina State University and a former visiting faculty member at the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga. His research has dealt with various aspects of international economics, including open economy macroeconomics, international finance, and international trade in agricultural products. Recent research topics have included macroeconomic aspects of the Great Moderation, offshore outsourcing, sovereign wealth funds, and the relationship between government debt and economic growth. Earlier work dealt with emerging market issues in the Baltic countries and Russia and trade and macro policies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic history topics include the Columbian Exchange of plants and animals, the effects on food markets of introducing mechanical refrigeration, and the integration of Tsarist Russia into the world grain market. When he is not involved in economics, he enjoys mountain hiking.

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