Benchmark Revisions and Nonfarm Payroll Employment since January 2009

The BLS released preliminary annual benchmark revisions for March 2012. Nonfarm payroll series and private nonfarm payroll series, in logs, normalized to 2009M01, are shown below; adding on the revised levels for March 2012 yields the series shown in red.

benchmk1.gif
Figure 1: Log nonfarm payroll employment (blue), and adjusted upward to account for benchmark revision at 2012M03 (red), both normalized 2009M01=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS (August release) via FRED, BLS, NBER and author’s calculations.

benchmk2.gif
Figure 2: Log private nonfarm payroll employment (blue), and adjusted upward to account for benchmark revision at 2012M03 (red), both normalized 2009M01=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS (August release) via FRED, BLS, NBER and author’s calculations.This benchmark revision occurs each year. The calculations I’ve implemented in the graphs assume a constant upward shift equal to the March 2012 amount. If, as is typically the case in upswings, subsequent benchmark revisions further shift up the March 2013 figures, then the red lines will represent an undercount of job growth throughout 2012.

This post was originally published at Econbrowser and is reproduced here with permission.

One Response to "Benchmark Revisions and Nonfarm Payroll Employment since January 2009"

  1. Carol Danvers   February 28, 2013 at 12:47 am

    It's good to see something normalizing – and even on the upward trend – for a change. The economy's been so bad the past few years that many were probably expecting a repeat of the great depression.