EconoMonitor

The ECB Is Passively Tightening

Something that many observers miss about the Eurozone crisis is that by doing nothing the ECB is doing something: it is passively tightening monetary policy. Total current Euro spending is falling, either through a endogenous fall in the money supply or through a decrease in velocity, and the ECB is failing to respond to it. The impact of passive tightening is no different than that of an overt tightening of monetary policy. Currently it is tearing the Eurozone apart.

Michael Darda sees this passive tightening by the ECB and is not impressed:

European markets quickly ran out of steam today on news of a Spanish bank recapitalization over the weekend. Part of this may be due to the fact that equity markets already discounted the news last week. Moreover, the ECB took a pass on a relatively costless (in our view) opportunity to surprise to the upside with even symbolic monetary stimulus (rate cut, anyone?). Given the ongoing pressure on Spanish and Italian sovereign debt markets—and the correspondingly level of regional inflation expectations—the Spanish bank recapitalization is highly unlikely to be enough to set the eurozone on a more robust growth trajectory. Indeed, we do not believe additional EFSF/ESM measures will be effective unless they are coupled with a much more accommodative ECB monetary policy (i.e., one that provides for faster euro-area nominal GDP growth). The key here is for the ECB to manage expectations properly. Closed-ended, ad hoc actions that are limited in scope are not likely to bear fruit, as increases in base money get absorbed by falling base velocity. A more open-ended and aggressive commitment to reflationary policies, however, would likely require the ECB to do less with its balance sheet, as market forces would help the ECB ease. Although we believe ECB President Mario Draghi got off to a good start, we are not encouraged by recent statements and the lack of follow-through at a critical juncture for the eurozone.

Passive tightening is fashionable these days. It is being done of both sides of the Atlantic.

Update: Jim Pethokoukis agrees with Michael Darda.

This post originally appeared at Macro and Other Market Musings and is posted with permission.

One Response to “The ECB Is Passively Tightening”

BarfJune 13th, 2012 at 7:01 pm

"Now we know" courtesy of our own Fed of course. This is no mere "passive tightening" however. This feels more like a "reparations tax" by Germany on the entirety of Europe. Sure…crow about the low borrowing rates…but the loss of markets will impair the German economy far more permanently and in a far more injurious way. There is no going back to the D-mark!

Most Read | Featured | Popular

Blogger Spotlight

Thomas Grennes Thoughts From Across the Atlantic

Thomas Grennes is a professor of economics at the North Carolina State University and a former visiting faculty member at the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga. His research has dealt with various aspects of international economics, including open economy macroeconomics, international finance, and international trade in agricultural products. Recent research topics have included macroeconomic aspects of the Great Moderation, offshore outsourcing, sovereign wealth funds, and the relationship between government debt and economic growth. Earlier work dealt with emerging market issues in the Baltic countries and Russia and trade and macro policies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic history topics include the Columbian Exchange of plants and animals, the effects on food markets of introducing mechanical refrigeration, and the integration of Tsarist Russia into the world grain market. When he is not involved in economics, he enjoys mountain hiking.

Economics Blog Aggregator

Our favorite economics blogs aggregated.