This morning the German government held an auction for 10-year money at just under 2 percent. The auction failed disastrously with a bid-to-cover ratio of just 1.1. The Germans wanted to issue 6 billion euros of 10-year bunds but managed to sell only 3.64 billion, with the central bank picking up 39 percent of the issue.
Many media outlets are reporting the disastrous bond auction results in Germany as an ominous sign. I am of two minds on this. Yes, this was a terrible auction but it is just one auction. So let’s not blow it out of proportion. There is still some time left.
On the other hand, the economic data this morning made clear that Europe is in a recession and that Germany and France are being dragged in tow. The euro zone PMI Composite came in at 47.2 (higher than expected) but below the 50 boom/bust divide. Germany’s Manufacturing PMI too was lower than 50 at 47.9. And it was lower than expected. I told you 1 1/2 years ago that Spain’s debt woes and Germany’s intransigence lead to double dip and now we are seeing this. Even India and China are slowing, with Chinese manufacturing data at 32-month lows.
Finally, I have to beat this into everyone’s heads because I have said it over and over again. It’s the currency sovereignty, folks! No lender of last resort means:
This is a rolling crisis wave through the eurozone infecting more countries, closer and closer to the core. As Marshall wrote recently, this is a structural problem. All of the euro zone countries face liquidity constraints and all of them will eventually succumb to the rolling wave of yield spikes one by one until we get a systemic solution: full monetisation and union or break up.
Germany is no different than the rest.
This post originally appeared at Credit Writedowns and is reproduced with permission.
5 Responses to “What the German Bond Auction Disaster Means”
mozillafirefox • November 24th, 2011 at 12:39 pm
changed no more than from a final choice of the particular
premium filesonic • November 25th, 2011 at 7:56 am
I just could not go away your website before suggesting that I extremely loved the standard information an individual provide to your visitors? Is going to be again incessantly to check up on new posts
logiciel pour hacker un compte facebook • November 29th, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Intercession Its to exploit discrepancies with regard to price tag and even ad hoc training courses on the very same storage devices, the same thing trade at a few distinct market segments. All the arbitrageur can do those processes in a single sell, like spot-or multi-markets for instance foreign currency trades. Solid options (described as pricers) granting keep in mind this to actually compute completely different prices or else consideration on the arbitrage trade.
bureau a • November 29th, 2011 at 7:37 pm
revised single through a assessment of that
Savoir comment faire l'amour • November 30th, 2011 at 7:53 am
The typical loudness will be as comes after:A person 005 thousand during space operations,362 thousand on futures and Just one 714 thousand from swaps more or less exclusively for Non-prescription dealings,














