European Debt: The Big Picture

For everyone struggling to get their arms around the debt crisis in Europe, Bill Marsh in yesterday’s New York Times offers literally a compelling picture, with graphic illustration for the key issues.

The picture is big, 18×21 inches. Either you need a very large computer screen or a hard copy of the paper (pp. 6-7 in the SundayReview section, “It’s All Connected: A Spectator’s Guide to the Euro Crisis).

The main debt linkages across borders for which we have data are all here – and the graphic pulls your eye appropriately to the centrality of Italy in whatever happens next.  (On why eurozone policy towards Italy now matters so much – and what are the options – see my recent paper with Peter Boone, “Europe on the Brink”.)

But you might think also about what is not in the NYT graphic because we lack reliable information.  For example, what is the exposure of US financial institutions to European debt, directly or indirectly, through derivatives transactions of any kind?

The opaqueness of derivative markets means that most investors can only guess at what could happen.  Most of the relevant regulators and supervisors with whom I have talked seem also to be largely in the dark – remember the experience of AIG in 2008.

Cross-border bank exposures through loans and other holdings are publicly disclosed – data from the Bank for International Settlements are represented by the arrows in the NYT graphic.  These data are surely not perfect, but they do convey the main points and they tell you where to focus attention.

Why do we not require publication of similar data, preferably by financial institution, for all derivative transactions – including both gross and supposedly net exposures across borders?

This post originally appeared at The Baseline Scenario and is reproduced with permission.

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Håvard Halland Håvard Halland

PHåvard Halland is a natural resource economist at the World Bank, where he leads research and policy agendas in the fields of resource-backed infrastructure finance, sovereign wealth fund policy, extractive industries revenue management, and public financial management for the extractive industries sector. Prior to joining the World Bank, he was a delegate and program manager for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Colombia. He earned a PhD in economics from the University of Cambridge.