EconoMonitor

The Case For Monetary Cranks

Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig is the Uriah Heep of central banking. “We ought to be very, very humble in our expectations of what we can do with this instrument we call monetary policy,” says Hoenig, who retires this week after racking up eight straight dissents last year as a voting member of the FOMC. But would tighter monetary policy imposed six months or a year earlier be paying macro dividends now? Let’s be generous and say that it’s debatable. Still, the prescription endures.

In an interview with NPR, Hoenig complains that “in a world of instant gratification, we have had two decades in this country of consuming more than we produce by a considerable margin.” As part of the solution, he recommends spending cuts and tax hikes, NPR reports. Now? In this economy? So much for humility.

The punishment, it seems, must fit the crime, Hoenig suggests. Monetary policy as punitive social policy? But austerity now isn’t helping Europe, and it’s not clear that it would help the U.S. economy at this point, as history suggests.

What is conspicuous is that the market’s inflation expectations have been falling since the spring. The implied inflation outlook via the yield spread on the nominal 10-year Treasury less its inflation-indexed counterpart is under 2%, the lowest in nearly a year. That’s a problem for a weak economy, a point that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke seemed to notice anew. In a speech yesterday, he explains that “if inflation falls too low or inflation expectations fall too low, that would be something we have to respond to because we do not want deflation.”

The comment inspires Marcus Nunes to recommend that “we must reevaluate Bernanke´s supposed knowledge about the power of monetary policy.”

Meanwhile, facts are stubborn things. As David Beckworth explains, the Fed’s “passive tightening” is squeezing the economy. “The result is that current dollar spending–the product of the money supply and money demand–is not where it should be, as seen in the figure below:

Isn’t an accommodative monetary policy at this point just reckless money printing? Scott Sumner dispatches that idea with in one fell swoop: “Yes, but like a broken clock the monetary cranks are right twice a century; 1933, and today. The other 98 years I am a Chicago-trained, libertarian, inflation-hawk. Twice a century I put on my Irving Fisher super-hero suit, and emerge from my deep underground bunker.”

This post originally appeared on The Capital Spectator and is reproduced here with permission.

4 Responses to “The Case For Monetary Cranks”

hoger in googleOctober 9th, 2011 at 9:48 am

Hey There. I discovered your weblog the usage of msn. That is a very neatly written article. I will make sure to bookmark it and come back to read extra of your helpful information. Thank you for the post. I’ll definitely comeback.

Most Read | Featured | Popular

Blogger Spotlight

Ed Dolan Ed Dolan's Econ Blog

Edwin G. Dolan is an economist and educator with a Ph.D. from Yale University. Early in his career, he was a member of the economics faculty at Dartmouth College, the University of Chicago, and George Mason University. From 1990 to 2001, he taught in Moscow, Russia, where he and his wife founded the American Institute of Business and Economics (AIBEc), an independent, not-for-profit MBA program. Since 2001, he has taught at several universities in Europe, including Central European University in Budapest, the University of Economics in Prague, and the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga, where he has an ongoing annual visiting appointment. During breaks in his teaching career, he worked in Washington, D.C. as an economist for the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice and as a regulatory analyst for the Interstate Commerce Commission, and later served a stint in Almaty as an adviser to the National Bank of Kazakhstan. When not lecturing abroad, he makes his home in San Juan Islands, Washington.

Economics Blog Aggregator

Our favorite economics blogs aggregated.