RGE expects the trade balance to register a US$1 billion surplus in October, compared with surpluses of US$1.15 billion in October 2009 and US$1.1 billion in September 2010, slightly shrinking the 12-month rolling basis trade surplus to US$13.97 billion from US$14.1 billion in September. Slowing demand from Brazil, despite high soft commodity prices, likely eased export growth to 34% y/y, while an over-stimulated and unsustainable domestic demand growth likely kept pushing imports up by 48% y/y.  

Argentina’s Monthly Trade Balance (USD millions)

Source: INDEC and RGE

Editor’s Note: This post is excerpted from a much longer analysis available exclusively to RGE Clients, LatAm Focus: Week Ahead (Week of November 22, 2010)