Official industrial production figures for July suggested strongly that the economy is on course for growth in the third quarter. The 0.5% rise in industrial production between June and July left it 0.9% higher than its second quarter average, suggesting a significant relapse would be needed in August and September not to produce quarterly growth.

Manufacturing output rose by 0.8% between June and July and also looks set for quarterly growth, in line with the surveys. Note that these are the Office for National Statistics’ calculations of the monthly changes – when you work them out on the basis of the index numbers, the results are slightly different. More details here.