Unemployment Friday

I continue to hear pundits overstate that “Employment is a lagging indicator.”

Yes, in the aggregate, that is true. But if you drill down into all of the employment data, you can find elements that lead (temp Help, Hours worked) or are Coincidental (Continuing Claims, Wages).

Here are some recent Employment Charts that show the state of the employment market, with an emphasis on the leading aspects.

Verdict: Not very good.

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Temporary Help:

temp-help-as-of-may-09.png A major leading indicator of future hiring.

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Employment, Hours (CES)

employment-hours-and-earnings-from-the-current-employment-statistics-survey-national.png

BLS via Jeff Frankels Weblog

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Its even more dramatic when you just look at only private employers:

hours.png

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Lastly, there are the continuing claims, which shows no signs of abating:

Continuing Unemployment Claims

weeklyclaimsjune10.jpg

via Calculated Risk


Originally published at The Big Picture and reproduced here with the author’s permission.