Albert Edwards: Expect new equity lows in H2, China is global Achilles’ heel

Albert Edwards, global strategist of Société Générale, has always been a firm favourite among readers of Investment Postcards. His latest “Global Strategy Weekly” offers thought-provoking reading at a critical juncture in financial markets. The paragraphs below come courtesy of Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge.

Not only does Edwards, who was previously vilified then praised for calling the 1997 Asian Bubble, see a significant drop in equities before the end of the year, but his main concern is also every optimist’s greatest green shoot: China.

“Most areas in the markets have now discounted a V-shaped recovery. Any doubt will trigger a rapid reversal in prices. I continue to be extremely sceptical and see recent events as part of a 1930s-like, long march to revulsion. Talking about long marches, nowhere in the world fills me with more scepticism than the Chinese economic recovery. The continued enthusiasm for all things China reminds me so much of the way investors were almost totally blind to the fact the US growth miracle was built on sand. China could be the biggest disappointment yet.”

Edwards follows up with some very amusing observations on mass delusions:

“It is amazing how easily group-think takes a vice-like hold in the financial markets. As the BRIC economies meet for their debut summit, few dare to speak out against the new, ‘New Paradigm’. We also saw this same investor mania 13 years ago with the Asian Bubble, which the consensus thought was a growth miracle. But to go that far against the consensus invites a deluge of hate mail. That is why I keep a copy of a World Bank book entitled Thailand’s Macroeconomic Miracle: Stable Adjustment and Sustained Growth. It was published in October 1996, less than a year before Thailand’s (and Asia’s) economic collapse.

“It is all too easy for investors to buy into beguiling ‘growth’ stories that are in fact utter nonsense. If the bubble of belief in China’s medium-term growth prospects finally bursts, it will have huge investment implications. I will be writing far more about this subject over this summer. But one thought, if China is doing so well, how come Chinese company profits in the year to April are down some 30% yoy (see chart)?”

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“SG has an excellent Asian economist, Glenn Maguire, who, unlike me, has been totally right about the recovery in the Chinese data this year. But it was notable that when the 6.1% yoy rise in Q1 GDP was published, he said the real outturn was actually more like 3.5% yoy, but that the authorities ’smooth’ the data at turning points. Let me put that into plain English. The Q1 6.1% GDP outturn is simply a lie – and it helps explain why the Chinese data are derided by so many economic commentators. Many have highlighted that the GDP seems inconsistent with other data such as electricity output. This latter series remains weak. In May it declined 3.2% yoy and by 3% on the smoothed basis.”

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“Yet few dare to point out that the emperor’s clothes might be absent. When, for example, the International Energy Agency had the temerity, a few weeks back, to suggest that the Chinese authorities were inflating the data (link), they were met with a robust broadside from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics. The NBS said on its website ‘It is regrettable that the point of view in the original article is groundless … We believe that, for an international organization, this approach lacks seriousness’ – link. I think this is a case of me thinks thou doth protest too much. Nevertheless, an article on Radio Free Asia reported that The National People’s Congress had found “serious fabrication” in official statistics – link and link.”

Hat tip: Zero Hedge, June 17, 2009.


Originally published at Prieur du Plessis’s International Investment Blog and reproduced here with the author’s permission.

3 Responses to "Albert Edwards: Expect new equity lows in H2, China is global Achilles’ heel"

  1. steve   June 26, 2009 at 11:19 am

    Yes , China miraculously de-coupled from the rest of the economic world. They suggested that in Canada too last year and we got wacked. Exporting countries Canada, china , etc sell stuff , if no one is buying they cannot sell it. Simple supply and demand.To suggest the demand for china’s exports has remained virtually the same to sustain their gdp to 8 % is assinine.The smaller Asian exporters have delivered dramatic drops in gdp which makes sense, china’s ability to continue unaffected does not make any sense. The truth will come out , empty factories , unemployed chinese..

  2. paul94611   June 27, 2009 at 5:42 pm

    The whole concept that sovereigns can impact the long term prospects of their respective economies by providing massive amounts of liquidity that is used to inflate equities & commodities rather than rebalance their economies is especially troubling for a nation like China. I say this simply because even this relatively uneducated observer realizes that gross inflation in the pricing of commodities is a lose-lose situation for China.Sooner or later China, the US and other nations will be forced to confront the reality that creating debt to resolve a debt crisis to fund yet more bubbles in the world economy will only serve to inflate the pain & cost when reality is finally faced. For a clue look to Japan and their debt-GDP ratio coupled with their continuing severe export declines, both regionally (especially to China) and the effects of resurgent deflationary expectations.

  3. PostKEconomist   August 6, 2009 at 6:37 am

    If Glenn Maguire has got it right, his next call on China may be an interesting one to watch. He expects China to move into the unfamiliar territory of trade deficit. Indeed, he proposes a trade deficit is the logical performance indicator for the policy goal of substituting domestic demand for external demand. If he is right, and China moves into deficit, and FX reserve depletion, who will become the world’s marginal buyer of US Treasuries. Maguire describes China moving into trade deficit as the next “event risk” for global markets.http://www.stumbleupon.com/s/#2bO9C4/www.dnaindia.com/money/report_coming-soon-china-slide-from-trade-surplus-to-deficit_1279505/topic:Economics