Recent GDP figures may be revised in time but it was too early to expect any change yet. Indeed, given the recent history of the data, it was perhaps a relief that there was no downward revision. The latest figures confirm the first quarter GDP fall at 1.9%, a drop of 4.1% on a year earlier. Inventories contributed about a third of the fall – over the past two quarters they have accounted for two-thirds of the GDP drop – but the decline was fairly broadly-based, government spending providing the only real support.

It rose by 0.3% at a time when household spending dropped by 1.2%, investment fell by 3.8% and exports dropped by 6.1%. The good news is that the first quarter fall should be the biggest in this cycle. The bad news is that it takes time to move from a 1.9% quarterly fall back to growth. More here.