David Rosenberg: Market musings & data deciphering

David Rosenberg, Merrill’s former chief North American economist, has returned to his native Toronto and commenced duty with buy-side firm Gluskin Sheff & Associates. David has just produced his first report as chief economist and strategist of his new employer, basically picking up where he left off with Merrill. A short extract follows below, preceding a link to the full report.

Recession Isn’t Over: We still get asked all the time whether or not it is possible to see a positive real GDP print and still be in recession. Indeed, just go back a year ago and you will see that the economy, after a brief contraction in the first quarter, rebounded at nearly a 3% annual rate in the second quarter as the tax rebates kicked in. The problem is that the economy relapsed in the third quarter, and then the fourth quarter, and then the first quarter, and so on. You can get positive GDP growth quarters in a recession, and more often than not, we see two of these. But the operative word is sustainability. That is the key.”

Click here for the full report.


Originally published at Prieur du Plessis’s international investment blog and reproduced here with the author’s permission.