A quick forecast, based on monthly nonfarm payroll figures since 2000, indicated that the Oregon job loss for February would be -13,800.  This was a relatively pessimistic forecast, especially compared to the official state forecast, but I thought it was justified given the strong spike in initial unemployment claims at the end of last year.

Today the official numbers were released- nonfarm payrolls in Oregon declined by 21,700.  A number best described as virtually freefall.  The unemployment rate now stands at 10.8%.  Dismal.

For watchers of the local situation, this job report suggests that the state’s revenue forecast for the 2007-2009 biennium remains in doubt, while downward revisions for the next biennium are likely.  Worse, I am increasingly concerned that this recession will soon eat into the forecast for the 2011-2013 biennium.  We are in for a rough ride.

Originally published at Tim Duy’s Fed Watch and reproduced here with the author’s permission.