Here’s a compilation of e-forecasting’s January GDP estimate, Macroeconomic Adviser’s December GDP estimate and forecast for 2009Q1. E-forecasting’s estimate is that January real GDP was declining at an 11.8% at annual rates.
Figure 1: GDP (light blue bars), GDP from e-forecasting, 2/20 (blue), and from Macroeconomic Advisers 2/13 (red); Macroeconomic Advisers’ forecast for 2009Q1 (red line with *), in Ch.2000$ SAAR. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray (assuming recession has not ended by 2009M03). Source: BEA, GDP release of 30 January, e-forecasting 2/20 and Macroeconomic Advisers [xls] 2/13 release.Clearly, in order to hit the mean WSJ forecast of -4.6% SAAR growth (see discussion here, the rate of m/m decline must decelerate. As Macroeconomic Advisers notes:
…Our latest tracking forecast of a 4.6% annualized decline of GDP in the first quarter requires only 0.2% declines per month during the first quarter. …
The Macroeconomic Advisers forecast available online predates some key releases, including the industrial production release discussed here.
Originally published at Econbrowser and reproduced here with the author’s permission.
Thomas Grennes is a professor of economics at the North Carolina State University and a former visiting faculty member at the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga. His research has dealt with various aspects of international economics, including open economy macroeconomics, international finance, and international trade in agricultural products. Recent research topics have included macroeconomic aspects of the Great Moderation, offshore outsourcing, sovereign wealth funds, and the relationship between government debt and economic growth. Earlier work dealt with emerging market issues in the Baltic countries and Russia and trade and macro policies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic history topics include the Columbian Exchange of plants and animals, the effects on food markets of introducing mechanical refrigeration, and the integration of Tsarist Russia into the world grain market. When he is not involved in economics, he enjoys mountain hiking.
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