Here’s a compilation of e-forecasting’s January GDP estimate, Macroeconomic Adviser’s December GDP estimate and forecast for 2009Q1. E-forecasting’s estimate is that January real GDP was declining at an 11.8% at annual rates.
Figure 1: GDP (light blue bars), GDP from e-forecasting, 2/20 (blue), and from Macroeconomic Advisers 2/13 (red); Macroeconomic Advisers’ forecast for 2009Q1 (red line with *), in Ch.2000$ SAAR. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray (assuming recession has not ended by 2009M03). Source: BEA, GDP release of 30 January, e-forecasting 2/20 and Macroeconomic Advisers [xls] 2/13 release.Clearly, in order to hit the mean WSJ forecast of -4.6% SAAR growth (see discussion here, the rate of m/m decline must decelerate. As Macroeconomic Advisers notes:
…Our latest tracking forecast of a 4.6% annualized decline of GDP in the first quarter requires only 0.2% declines per month during the first quarter. …
The Macroeconomic Advisers forecast available online predates some key releases, including the industrial production release discussed here.
Originally published at Econbrowser and reproduced here with the author’s permission.
Edwin G. Dolan is an economist and educator with a Ph.D. from Yale University. Early in his career, he was a member of the economics faculty at Dartmouth College, the University of Chicago, and George Mason University. From 1990 to 2001, he taught in Moscow, Russia, where he and his wife founded the American Institute of Business and Economics (AIBEc), an independent, not-for-profit MBA program. Since 2001, he has taught at several universities in Europe, including Central European University in Budapest, the University of Economics in Prague, and the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga, where he has an ongoing annual visiting appointment. During breaks in his teaching career, he worked in Washington, D.C. as an economist for the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice and as a regulatory analyst for the Interstate Commerce Commission, and later served a stint in Almaty as an adviser to the National Bank of Kazakhstan. When not lecturing abroad, he makes his home in Washington's San Juan Islands.
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