U.S. jobless claims: Claims rise 62,000 to 589,000

This past week, jobless claims settled in at a level near 600,000 after a few weeks of decline due largely to seasonal adjustments. Jobless claims were 589,000 while continuing claims were 4,607,000.

Year-on-year changes in average continuing claims and initial claims are a very good indicator of the health of the job market. I have begun to track the change in claims using only unadjusted data due to distortions from seasonal adjustments. For example, the year-on-year numbers show an increase of 295,000 and rising for the raw numbers and only 192,000 and falling for the adjusted numbers.

In the charts below, you can see that the unadjusted comparisons are deteriorating. I am expecting to see a significant rise of more than 500,000 in unemployment, when the unemployment figures come out early next month.

jobless-claims-2009-01-22-400x269.png

continuing-claims-change-2009-01-22-400x268.png

Source Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – U.S. Department of Labor

Related Reading:

Racial Formation in the United States: From the 1960s to the 1990s (Critical Social Thought)
Fighting Unemployment: The Limits of Free Market Orthodoxy
Voices of A People’s History of the United States
Unemployment Boot Camp: Tactics for Surviving and Thriving in the 21st Century
Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market

Originally published at Credit Writedowns and reproduced here with the author’s permission.