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Weather Information and Financial Information

To briefly remove myself from constant flow of news on the financial crisis, I attended a talk on environmental policy at our school.  The speaker was Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., who is the administrator of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration).  NOAA collects various data and information on weather, climate, ocean resources, and other environmental information, and disseminates those to the public.  At one point of the talk, in explaining why the government should be in the business of collecting such information, Admiral Lautenbacher said:

 

“You don’t want to have Hurricane information provided by Enron.”

 

(I am relying on my memory, so the quote may not be exact.)

 

Then, it occurred to me this is actually what we do in collecting and providing financial information.  We rely on rating agencies, analysts at financial institutions, and other private financial information providers to collect and publicize important information about health of financial institutions and financial industry.  These entities may not have the right incentives to provide unbiased information.

 

Of course, collecting data and forecasting financial events is much more difficult than forecasting weather or the movement of a hurricane.  We do not have to worry about a hurricane strategically changing its course, but we need to consider strategic uncertainty that players face in the financial system.  But, would an unbiased institution that concentrates on collecting and disseminating financial information help?

 

I guess my attempt to think about something other than financial system and regulation was unsuccessful.

 

 

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Edwin G. Dolan is an economist and educator with a Ph.D. from Yale University. Early in his career, he was a member of the economics faculty at Dartmouth College, the University of Chicago, and George Mason University. From 1990 to 2001, he taught in Moscow, Russia, where he and his wife founded the American Institute of Business and Economics (AIBEc), an independent, not-for-profit MBA program. Since 2001, he has taught at several universities in Europe, including Central European University in Budapest, the University of Economics in Prague, and the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga, where he has an ongoing annual visiting appointment. During breaks in his teaching career, he worked in Washington, D.C. as an economist for the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice and as a regulatory analyst for the Interstate Commerce Commission, and later served a stint in Almaty as an adviser to the National Bank of Kazakhstan. When not lecturing abroad, he makes his home in San Juan Islands, Washington.

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