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ECB Will Build a Bridge…But to Where?
All eyes are on the ECB governing council meeting on August 2nd to see exactly what Mario Draghi meant last week when he pledged that the ECB would preserve the euro. The way the markets have rallied off the back of this statement, it seems that investors think that the ECB is poised to intervene [...]
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A Spanish Bailout? Don’t Hold Your Breath
From the guardian: It is a rule of thumb among eurozone crisis observers that the more something is denied by officials, the more likely it is to happen. With Spain’s borrowing costs at euro-area record highs, its officials insist it will not need a full bailout programme. To most of us, however, it seems no longer [...]
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Japan: Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates
There is evidence that inflation expectations are firmly moving into positive territory after languishing below zero following the onset of the global financial crisis. The 7y breakeven has stabilized at around 0.53% over the past couple of weeks, after averaging -1.1% from December 2008 to December 2011. This jump has helped move the 7y real [...]
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Canada: Of Resource Investment and ‘Net Benefit’s
Two important pieces of news for the Canadian resource sector were announced today, both reference in some way the “net benefit” clause for investment in Canada, one at a national level (Nexen-CNOOC), the other at a provincial (National Gateway pipeline review), both important to Canadian and global resource supply chains. First, the proposed takeover of Nexen [...]
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How Much Did Barclays Make From Manipulating Libor?
No doubt at some point a full calculation will be forthcoming. It is important to remember that many banks are involved in the scandal, and that for every long derivative there’s a short, so there were winners and losers and the sums are all mixed up. It may well be that just as Bank X’s [...]
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India Is Likely to Move Out of Policy Logjam
The last few months of Pranab Mukherjee (India’s prime Presidential candidate now) being at the helm of India’s Ministry of Finance has been tumultuous, to say the least. Maybe, not as much for him but surely for the economy, as a whole. Not that the entire blame lies at his doors. The global economy continued [...]
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EU Summit: Some Good Progress, But Any Game Changers?
This EU summit marked many firsts for eurozone crisis era EU summits: it was the first time Greece hasn’t been discussed in years, it was the first time Italy and Spain bonded together and it was the first time President Hollande attended an EU summit. By dinner time on Thursday, the EU summit seemed a [...]
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A Week in Sovereign Wealth: From Nigeria to Qatar
Its been an important week for two funds at different ends of the sovereign investment risk tolerance spectrum – Nigeria and Qatar, both of which have sparked a series of headlines and have intentionally or not taken some new strides. The Nigerian governors breaking the deadlock on the country’s new US$1 billion fund and Qatar [...]
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EFSF/ESM Bond Buying in Primary Market Not Much Better
I’ve already explained why EFSF/ESM secondary market bond purchases wouldn’t really help. One of the ideas floating around the EU summit is that the EFSF/ESM can buy bonds in the primary markets. While this would be more effective in terms of reducing borrowing costs and buying time, it is unlikely to buy enough time to [...]
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Markets Tire of EZ Tricks: RGE’s Parul Walia Sits Down with Megan Greene for a Discussion on the EZ Summit and Implications for Europe and the UK
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Thomas Grennes
Thoughts From Across the Atlantic
Thomas Grennes is a professor of economics at the North Carolina State University and a former visiting faculty member at the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga. His research has dealt with various aspects of international economics, including open economy macroeconomics, international finance, and international trade in agricultural products. Recent research topics have included macroeconomic aspects of the Great Moderation, offshore outsourcing, sovereign wealth funds, and the relationship between government debt and economic growth. Earlier work dealt with emerging market issues in the Baltic countries and Russia and trade and macro policies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic history topics include the Columbian Exchange of plants and animals, the effects on food markets of introducing mechanical refrigeration, and the integration of Tsarist Russia into the world grain market. When he is not involved in economics, he enjoys mountain hiking.
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