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Central Banks’ Actions: Important, But a Safety Net Rather Than Strong Medicine
Central banks made a coordinated 50bps cut today, but to a facility that almost no one uses and apparently fewer understand, as the NY Fed’s detailed breakdown of exposures shows. Commentaries like CNBC’s leave out important points, like the reason the ECB needs those dollars… which is to lend to banks in Europe which can’t [...]
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The Euro in a Break-up Scenario
A Greek debt restructuring, so long in the making, is now mostly priced in and would likely upset FX markets only temporarily and in a limited manner. An exit from EMU would matter much more, not because Greece is an important economy but because there is no legal provision for leaving EMU and it would [...]
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RGE’s Nowakowski and Das Debate: Why Not Make the EFSF a Hedge Fund?
Below is an exchange that took place between RGE’s David Nowakowski, director of fixed income strategy, and Arnab Das, managing director of market research and strategy. This is just one of the many discussions that takes place daily at Roubini Global Economics. David Nowakowski: In October, the EU revealed two convoluted plans to leverage the [...]
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Europe’s Perfect Storm: When Possibility Meets Actuality
“May you live in interesting times.” What better phrase than the apocryphal Chinese curse above to capture the essence of the weeks, months and years to come? More to the point, just how interesting will those times be? History suggests we should be careful what we wish for. Europe’s debt crisis poses immense risks to [...]
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Without Interest Rate Reform, China Will Not Pull Private Lending Out of the Shadows
RGE has long argued that without interest rate reform, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will eventually lose control of the country’s money supply. This is probably a strange thing to bring up after what appears to have been a very successful tightening cycle in which M2 growth has slowed to 13.1% y/y in Q3, [...]
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Calling Into Question Brad DeLong’s Respect for Wolfgang Schäuble
I provided the following comments on Brad DeLong’s recent post, My Respect for Wolfgang Schauble Rises Substantially. I welcome any insight into my inquiries. In fact, I would wager that DeLong’s latest post is an attempt to partly answer me. I would really like Brad or others who agree with him to explain where this [...]
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Reliance on Commodity Exports and Elevated NZD Highlight Industry Headwinds
The Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Index shows that the NZD has appreciated by 3.56% over the past year, sustained by New Zealand’s economy outperforming many other advanced economies. The rising currency is providing benefits to some sectors to the economy, while posing challenges to other sectors. The high NZD is having the most effect pushing agricultural commodity [...]
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RGE’s Shelley Goldberg Talks Commodities – CNBC
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Underwater Mortgage? Call 1-888-995-HOPE
Clearly the government needs to do more to help citizens in dire financial straits. An information hotline is a good bit short of a serious plan, such as the one described in my last blog post; Martin Feldstein and Gavyn Davies have also weighed in recently. As far as this story goes, Mandelman’s blog post [...]
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U.S. Housing – Measures to Prevent an Economic Cancer
Laurie Goodman is perhaps the best Real Estate / MBS analyst out there, with both buy-side and sell-side experience. Her recent testimony to Congress is worth reading and contains lots of good charts, sound reasoning, and a solid idea on what needs to be done – not to make housing what it was before the [...]
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Thomas Grennes
Thoughts From Across the Atlantic
Thomas Grennes is a professor of economics at the North Carolina State University and a former visiting faculty member at the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga. His research has dealt with various aspects of international economics, including open economy macroeconomics, international finance, and international trade in agricultural products. Recent research topics have included macroeconomic aspects of the Great Moderation, offshore outsourcing, sovereign wealth funds, and the relationship between government debt and economic growth. Earlier work dealt with emerging market issues in the Baltic countries and Russia and trade and macro policies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic history topics include the Columbian Exchange of plants and animals, the effects on food markets of introducing mechanical refrigeration, and the integration of Tsarist Russia into the world grain market. When he is not involved in economics, he enjoys mountain hiking.
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