RGE Analysts

Category Archive: Uncategorized

  • A “Fiscal Debit Card” (With An Expiry Date) to Boost Italy’s GDP – While Remaining Fiscally Disciplined

    In 2015 Italy is expected to return to growth on an annual basis after three consecutive years of contraction, and after having lost more than 9% of GDP in real terms since 2007, one year before the beginning of the global financial crisis. This is certainly a welcome development. At the same time, the major [...]

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  • UK Budget: An Electoral “Statement”

    Bottom line: The UK’s Autumn Statement came out mostly in line with our expectations, with one positive surprise that is clearly appealing for large portions of the electorate: a reform of the stamp duty on home purchases. As the richer will pay more, and more funds will be devoted to NHS, this reform clearly resembles [...]

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  • Fed’s Tapering Decision Bears Out RGE’s Out-of-Consensus Call

    NEW YORK—18 September 2013—Roubini Global Economics (RGE), an independent, global macroeconomics and strategy research firm, highlights its out-of-consensus call that the U.S. Federal Reserve would not “taper” the pace of quantitative easing at its September policy meeting, an assessment confirmed by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in a statement today. RGE first expressed this [...]

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  • Urbanization Cannot Explain China’s Imbalanced Growth Model

    In the latest example of what we have dubbed “the most over-hyped theme in emerging markets,” the Carnegie Endowment’s Yukon Huang defends China’s imbalanced growth model as a natural consequence of rapid urbanization in an FT Alphavile guest post. He writes, “urbanization largely explains both the decline in labor’s share of income and the increase [...]

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  • RGE’s Gary Clark on CNBC: Bearing Down on Gold

    Over the last few months, the long march of gold prices upward took a turn as markets began to anticipate a rates normalization amid chatter over Fed QE tapering and a reduction in tail risk. RGE commodities strategist Gary Clark appeared on CNBC to explain what to make of massive gold outflows from ETFs, presenting [...]

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  • Patriot Games: New President, but United Front on Iranian Nuclear Program?

    This weekend, the world welcomed the surprise victory of Hassan Rouhani, the most “moderate” of approved candidates in Iran’s presidential election. Commentators voiced optimism over potential changes in policies, amid ongoing economic sanctions against Iran’s nuclear program, but coming changes to Iran’s foreign relations are likely overstated. Iranian elections are notoriously hard to predict, and [...]

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  • Czech Floods: Little Effect on GDP

    The recent floods that swept the Czech Republic exerted a heavy toll on property and infrastructure, shutting the Prague Metro, regional roads, train service, and shipping routes along the Elbe River. The floods also exacerbated concerns over the recovery prospects of the Czech economy, which is experiencing its second recession in four years. The flood [...]

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  • A program of “rigor without austerity” for the Italian government

    Enrico Letta has recently presented to Parliament the “grand coalition” government he chairs. In his parliamentary speeches, Letta has clearly indicated that he intends to pursue a growth strategy based on tax cuts (or cancelled/postponed tax rises), without this implying new debt or breaking European agreements. At the same time, he did not indicate too [...]

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  • The Evolution of the ECB’s Thinking on Negative Deposit Rates

    The OECD has been telling the ECB to cut rates since November last year; today, after nearly half a year, the tortise-like ECB acted, cutting two rates that don’t really matter much. The ECB opened up two more doors today, though it hasn’t walked through them: first on securitization of SME loans into ABS, and second, to lower [...]

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  • Nowakowski on CNBC to Discuss Cyprus

    RGE’s Senior Director of Research David Nowakowski appeared on CNBC to discuss the evolving situation in Cyprus, where depositors are moving out, Russian investors are cautious and bank runs have returned. View the videos below, or go to CNBC for clips here, here and here.

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Aaron Menenberg Policies of Scale

Aaron Menenberg is Foreign Policy and Energy analyst, and a Future Leader with Foreign Policy Initiative. He also co-hosts Podlitical Risk (@podliticalrisk). He is a graduate student in international relations at The Maxwell School of Syracuse University. Previously he has worked at Praescient Analytics, The Hudson Institute, for the Israeli Ministry of Defense, and at the IBM Corporation. The views expressed are his own, and you can follow him on Twitter @AaronMenenberg. He welcomes questions and comments at