Is the Tandem One Animal or Two? Medvedev vs. Putin on the Record of Reform
There’s a lot of talk lately about which member of the Tandem will run for president in 2012. Most foreigners are hoping it will be Medvedev, the smiling, twittering “modernizer” who’s been talking up a storm about improving Russia’s investment climate, and many commentators think the uncertainty is affecting the decisions of international firms and organizations. But both men have insisted that they have a “common programme,” their goals and their methods are the same. If that’s true, why do we care who sits at which desk? Medvedev might have the friendlier face, but has he actually done more for the investment climate than Putin?
The World Bank publishes a set of indicators on the “Ease of Doing Business” based on the amount of time, effort, and expense entrepreneurs have to go through to start or close a business, register property, get a construction permit, get a loan, pay taxes, or trade across borders, as well as legal protections for investors. These are concrete factors that can make or break an investment climate, and they make a nice objective measure of how far Russia has come towards improving that climate. And while Russia tends to score quite poorly, it is improving. But it hasn’t improved any faster under Medvedev than under Putin. Of the 33 sub-indexes with data going back to 2006, 13 improved and one worsened in the 2006-2008 period under Putin, while only 11 improved and three worsened under Medvedev. Only the hours per year spent filing taxes and the number of days it takes to register property improved under Medvedev but not Putin. Other data sources agree. The Heritage Foundation’s indexes of business freedom, investment freedom, property rights, and freedom from corruption have are no higher than they were in 2008. Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index is unchanged since Medvedev’s ascension, and the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators database shows Russia’s “Control of Corruption” on a declining trend. The World Economic Forum’s Competitiveness Index ranks Russia a startling 128th out of 139 countries for property rights, and 114th in efficiency of the legal framework in settling disputes, both lower than the figures were in 2008.
Medvedev may be labeled a modernizer, but he hasn’t done any more than Putin to ease the stranglehold of bureaucracy or the rampant corruption. If the policy environment will stay the same regardless of who sits in the president’s chair, then it shouldn’t matter. Perhaps instead of asking who will run in 2012, we should be asking, who cares?
One Response to “Is the Tandem One Animal or Two? Medvedev vs. Putin on the Record of Reform”
RogoCop • June 23rd, 2011 at 3:04 am
Great post. 100% agree that things wont change no matter who is president next year.
