Argentina’s Economic Activity Cooling Off

Argentina’s economic activity expanded 11.1% y/y in June 2010, short of RGE (11.7% y/y) and consensus (11.5% y/y) expectations, cooling off from May’s 12.4% y/y, the strongest annual growth rate since March 2004. In Q2 2010, economic activity expanded 11.1% y/y (-0.8% y/y in Q2 2009), bringing the H1 2010 expansion to 9% YTD (0.5% YTD in 2009).

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On a seasonally adjusted basis, Argentina’s economic activity indicator contracted by 0.6% m/m in June (1.76% m/m in May), showing the first negative growth since September 2009, and pulling the three-month moving average reading down to 0.81% m/m from 1.38% m/m in May. In Q2 2010, GDP expanded 3.4% q/q (14.3% SAAR), after growing 2.9% q/q in Q1 2010 (12% SAAR).

Editor’s Note: This post is excerpted from a much longer analysis available exclusively to RGE Clients, LatAm Focus: Brazil’s Inflation Reaches Bottom; Mexico on a Rocky Growth Path


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