Confronting Iran would be a lot easier if the Saudis had more spare capacity
David Sanger looks at Iran and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions in today’s New York Times. Sanger suggests it will be hard to stop Iran’s quest for nukes, no matter what the nature of Iran’s regime — the refomers in Iran argue that if a secular Pakistani government can have nukes, why not a more secular Iranian government? Nouriel has beefed up his site’s coverage of geopolitical risks, including Iran. Iran, afterall, offers the potent combination of nuclear proliferation, political islam, oil and transatantic tensions over what to do.
Energy economist Philip Verleger has emphasized that with oil markets tight, any confrontation with Iran risks triggering a sharp upward spike in oil. Iran could cut its exports to retaliate for UN sanctions, or the world could try to stop buying Iranian oil to punish Iran. Consequently, it would be a lot easier to confront Iran successfully if another producer — and that almost always means oil’s central banker and swing producer, the Saudis – was able to make up for any fall in Iranian production. The Saudis did so during the 03 Iraq war, but it now seems doubtful that the Saudis have sufficient spare capacity to make up for any shortfall in Iranian production.Two other points are worth making. First, the Saudi Arabia’s position in the oil market traditionally stems not just from the scale of Saudi production, but from the Saudi’s resevoir of unused production capacity. Spare supply gave the Saudis the ability to add supply/ remove supply to influence price. Second, the set of countries whose oil firms have invested in Iran’s oil fields includes countries like France that did not support the US in Iraq, but also countries like Italy and Japan that did. The globalmacro Iran page includes a paper by Carnegie’s Perkovich and Manzanero that tries to look at how an economic confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program might play out. It provides a useful overview of FDI in Iran, and Iran’s trading partners — though any interruption in oil would impact on the global oil price, not just those countries who currently import oil from Iran.
26 Responses to “Confronting Iran would be a lot easier if the Saudis had more spare capacity”
Movie Guy • May 15th, 2005 at 3:02 pm
Test post:
The Risk in Hiding Behind a Hedge – LA Times
David Brownlee, a bond fund manager at NL Capital Management in Montpelier, Vt., put it more colloquially. “I’ve been managing bond money for 26 years, and I don’t understand a lot of these [new] derivatives,” he said.
Hence, the possibility of a derivatives meltdown induced by hedge fund failures no longer seems as farfetched as it might have seemed a few months ago — particularly because markets have become so disjointed in recent weeks, wreaking havoc with many big investors’ assumptions.
Last week, for example, the price of oil plunged 6.5% from Monday’s closing level through Friday. An investor might naturally assume that would be good for the stock market. Instead, the Dow Jones industrial average slumped 2.4% in the same period, ending the week at 10,140.12.
Nervous over GM’s outlook and other issues, investors continued to push up yields on junk bonds last week. The average yield on 100 junk issues tracked by KDP Investment Advisors ended the week at 7.81%, up from 7.62% on Monday and the highest since June.
By contrast, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note slid to 4.12% by Friday from 4.28% on Monday.
These may look like small shifts. But for hedge funds and other traders that make money by betting that market moves will be correlated in predictable ways, even mildly disjointed markets can be a nightmare.
Movie Guy • May 15th, 2005 at 3:22 pm
Let’s try this
Let’s try this
Let’s try this
Movie Guy • May 15th, 2005 at 3:42 pm
Test post:
The Risk in Hiding Behind a Hedge – LA Times
David Brownlee, a bond fund manager at NL Capital Management in Montpelier, Vt., put it more colloquially. “I’ve been managing bond money for 26 years, and I don’t understand a lot of these [new] derivatives,” he said.
Hence, the possibility of a derivatives meltdown induced by hedge fund failures no longer seems as farfetched as it might have seemed a few months ago — particularly because markets have become so disjointed in recent weeks, wreaking havoc with many big investors’ assumptions.
Last week, for example, the price of oil plunged 6.5% from Monday’s closing level through Friday. An investor might naturally assume that would be good for the stock market. Instead, the Dow Jones industrial average slumped 2.4% in the same period, ending the week at 10,140.12.
Nervous over GM’s outlook and other issues, investors continued to push up yields on junk bonds last week. The average yield on 100 junk issues tracked by KDP Investment Advisors ended the week at 7.81%, up from 7.62% on Monday and the highest since June.
By contrast, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note slid to 4.12% by Friday from 4.28% on Monday.
These may look like small shifts. But for hedge funds and other traders that make money by betting that market moves will be correlated in predictable ways, even mildly disjointed markets can be a nightmare.
Movie Guy • May 17th, 2005 at 12:26 am
Test Post:
SIDE BETS AND WHO IS MAKING THEM
Here’s a brief summary of available information on hedge funds, collateralized debt obligations (CDO), collateralized loan obligations (CLO), and other financial derivatives.
This information, in addition to the fine posts above, may provide a reasonable foundation for understanding hedge funds and the roles that such play in financial derivatives transactions. At a minimum, it is hoped that such will serve as a good starting point.
Hedge Funds
Background:
Domestic and Offshore Hedge Funds
Hedge Funds: What Do We Really Know?
Registration under the Investment Advisers Act of Certain Hedge Fund Advisers
Opinion/News:
The Risk in Hiding Behind a Hedge
City hedge funds head for domino collapse
Commerzbank chief urges tighter hedge fund rules
Hedge Funds Market Timing Mutual Funds
Derivatives
Background:
Derivatives Web Sites – Select List
Derivatives and Finance – Links
Quarterly Derivatives Fact Sheets – Administrator of National Banks, Comptroller of the Currency
Financial Policy Forum, Derivatives Study Center
Derivatives – The World According to Frank Partnoy
Gambling on Derivatives – Hedging Risk or Courting Disaster?
10 Myths About Financial Derivatives – CATO
Opinion/News:
Financial derivatives – Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve – March 19, 1999
Risk Transfer and Financial Stability – Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve – May 5, 2005
Derivatives Markets: Sources of Vulnerability in U.S. Financial Markets
The Road Ahead
Opinion/News:
Adult Swim Only – PIMCO, May 2005
Stress Testing the New Credit Market – Credit Suisse/First Boston, 13 May 2005
Derivatives Use Up Big at U.S. Banks – Financial Policy Forum, 12 May 2005
—–
This individual post can be copied directly to a blank email and the links will remain active if your email format is set for html text imaging. Additionally, you may want to note the url link for Brad’s overall post for future reference.
Brad’s post link: http://www.roubiniglobal.com/setser/archives/2005/05/it_seems_like_b.html#comments
Movie Guy • May 17th, 2005 at 12:28 am
TEST post:
SIDE BETS AND WHO IS MAKING THEM
Here’s a brief summary of available information on hedge funds, collateralized debt obligations (CDO), collateralized loan obligations (CLO), and other financial derivatives.
This information, in addition to the fine posts above, may provide a reasonable foundation for understanding hedge funds and the roles that such play in financial derivatives transactions. At a minimum, it is hoped that such will serve as a good starting point.
Hedge Funds
Background:
Domestic and Offshore Hedge Funds
Hedge Funds: What Do We Really Know?
Registration under the Investment Advisers Act of Certain Hedge Fund Advisers
Opinion/News:
The Risk in Hiding Behind a Hedge
City hedge funds head for domino collapse
Commerzbank chief urges tighter hedge fund rules
Hedge Funds Market Timing Mutual Funds
Derivatives
Background:
Derivatives Web Sites – Select List
Derivatives and Finance – Links
Quarterly Derivatives Fact Sheets – Administrator of National Banks, Comptroller of the Currency
Financial Policy Forum, Derivatives Study Center
Derivatives – The World According to Frank Partnoy
Gambling on Derivatives – Hedging Risk or Courting Disaster?
10 Myths About Financial Derivatives – CATO
Opinion/News:
Financial derivatives – Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve – March 19, 1999
Risk Transfer and Financial Stability – Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve – May 5, 2005
Derivatives Markets: Sources of Vulnerability in U.S. Financial Markets
The Road Ahead
Opinion/News:
Adult Swim Only – PIMCO, May 2005
Stress Testing the New Credit Market – Credit Suisse/First Boston, 13 May 2005
Derivatives Use Up Big at U.S. Banks – Financial Policy Forum, 12 May 2005
—–
This individual post can be copied directly to a blank email and the links will remain active if your email format is set for html text imaging. Additionally, you may want to note the url link for Brad’s overall post for future reference.
Brad’s post link: http://www.roubiniglobal.com/setser/archives/2005/05/it_seems_like_b.html#comments
Movie Guy • May 17th, 2005 at 12:35 am
TEST post:
SIDE BETS AND WHO MAY BE MAKING THEM
Here’s a brief summary of available information on hedge funds, collateralized debt obligations (CDO), collateralized loan obligations (CLO), and other financial derivatives.
This information, in addition to the fine posts above, may provide a reasonable foundation for understanding hedge funds and the roles that such play in financial derivatives transactions. At a minimum, it is hoped that such will serve as a good starting point.
Hedge Funds
Background:
Domestic and Offshore Hedge Funds
Hedge Funds: What Do We Really Know?
Registration under the Investment Advisers Act of Certain Hedge Fund Advisers
Opinion/News:
The Risk in Hiding Behind a Hedge
City hedge funds head for domino collapse
Commerzbank chief urges tighter hedge fund rules
Hedge Funds Market Timing Mutual Funds
Derivatives
Background:
Derivatives Web Sites – Select List
Derivatives and Finance – Links
Quarterly Derivatives Fact Sheets – Administrator of National Banks, Comptroller of the Currency
Financial Policy Forum, Derivatives Study Center
Derivatives – The World According to Frank Partnoy
Gambling on Derivatives – Hedging Risk or Courting Disaster?
10 Myths About Financial Derivatives – CATO
Opinion/News:
Financial derivatives – Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve – March 19, 1999
Risk Transfer and Financial Stability – Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve – May 5, 2005
Derivatives Markets: Sources of Vulnerability in U.S. Financial Markets
The Road Ahead
Opinion/News:
Adult Swim Only – PIMCO, May 2005
Stress Testing the New Credit Market – Credit Suisse/First Boston, 13 May 2005
Derivatives Use Up Big at U.S. Banks – Financial Policy Forum, 12 May 2005
—–
This individual post can be copied directly to a blank email and the links will remain active if your email format is set for html text imaging. Additionally, you may want to note the url link for Brad’s overall post for future reference.
Brad’s post link: http://www.roubiniglobal.com/setser/archives/2005/05/it_seems_like_b.html#comments
Movie Guy • May 17th, 2005 at 1:32 am
Brad
As you can see, I have been using this older post to test out new posts using html tags.
You can delete all of the comments. Thought it made more sense to practice and learn which comment text options you are allowing over here, out of the way.
MG
Movie Guy • May 21st, 2005 at 2:47 pm
CHINA’S CURRENCY CHANGE WILL NOT SOLVE THE U.S. TRADE DEFICIT
I believe it appropriate that there be a considerable and meaningful distinction made between those factors which influence a potential closure of the U.S. trade deficit and the current account deficit.
Greenspan has helped make that distinction. Others should follow suit.
Greenspan’s trade deficit remarksand hereand here
A rise in the value of China’s currency won’t cut the overall U.S. trade deficit, but would likely boost domestic prices, Greenspan said.
A move by China to revalue its currency “does not follow that that will lower our overall trade balance,” Greenspan said. “Indeed, it’s probably quite unlikely.”
If the prices of Chinese exports to the U.S. increase, American consumers will likely purchase goods from other foreign countries, not from domestic manufacturers, Greenspan said.
“So essentially what we will find is we are importing from a different area but we’ll be importing the same goods,” Greenspan said.
“The effect will be a rise in domestic prices in the United States and as a consequence of that, we will have other impacts which I could trace through but I’ve fortunately run out of time in this question.”
Anne said:
The trade deficit is not being forced on us because there is all sorts of saving needing to be poured in on America to induce us to buy abroad.
How can we not have a trade deficit when there is minimal household saving and a fierce government deficit?
Brad said:
I wish Alan Greenspan had qualified his statement by noting a change in China’s peg sufficient to cut into their “savings glut/ consumption death” would make it more costly for the US to run a savings deficit, and through the channels Bernanke describes operating in reverse, lower the trade deficit …
It’s my judgment that Greenspan got it right. His views echo in clear language what I have addressed regarding the U.S. trade deficit on other threads.
Import prices increases will likely occur, but the overall production of such finished goods (as presently manufactured and assembled in China) will remain offshore. The production cost differentials, barring considerable cost increases abroad, will not result in a shift to manufacturing and/or assembly of such goods in the USA.
As such, there is little likelihood that the U.S. trade deficit will decline in dollar terms due to production price increases in China if we’re relying on a supposed reduction in imports for such trade deficit reduction. Yes, Americans may buy fewer finished goods products from Asia due to price increases, but the dollar value of the such overall imports may not decline at all. Or will not decline until such time as the USA suffers another recession or significant economic slowing due to interest rate increases. In point of fact, the import dollar value may increase.
U.S. household savings will not necessarily increase because the currency of China is revalued. As the finished goods prices increase, Americans will hard pressed to add to such household savings without wage and income increases. As long as the majority of household finished goods in this category of purchase are manufactured overseas, Americans will continue to buy them without regard for “Made in USA” substitutes because such substitutes do not, in general, exist. Americans will simply be paying higher prices.
As imports prices rise, the Fed may very well step in and mount a quick fight to stem inflation if enough other prices rise on the heels of import price increases or occur concurrently. So, American consumers may be stuck with higher interest rates as well. That effort may be followed by federal taxes/fees increases in 2008 which will further dampen U.S. household savings. In the meantime, municipal, county, and state taxes/fees may increase to offset budget shortfalls. And lurking in the background will be the probable decline of available equity extraction used for consumer consumption expenditures of goods and services.
The likelihood that poor and lower middle income U.S. household savings will increase is minimal in my judgment.
As Greenspan stated, “it’s probably quite unlikely” that an increase in the value of China’s currency will reduce the overall U.S. trade deficit.
I concur.
Movie Guy • May 21st, 2005 at 3:19 pm
B>CHINA’S CURRENCY CHANGE PROBABLY WILL NOT HELP SOLVE THE U.S. TRADE DEFICIT
I believe it appropriate that there be a considerable and meaningful distinction made between those factors which influence a potential closure of the U.S. trade deficit and the current account deficit.
Greenspan has helped make that distinction. Others should follow suit.
Greenspan’s trade deficit remarks (and here) (and here)
A rise in the value of China’s currency won’t cut the overall U.S. trade deficit, but would likely boost domestic prices, Greenspan said.
A move by China to revalue its currency “does not follow that that will lower our overall trade balance,” Greenspan said. “Indeed, it’s probably quite unlikely.”
If the prices of Chinese exports to the U.S. increase, American consumers will likely purchase goods from other foreign countries, not from domestic manufacturers, Greenspan said.
“So essentially what we will find is we are importing from a different area but we’ll be importing the same goods,” Greenspan said.
“The effect will be a rise in domestic prices in the United States and as a consequence of that, we will have other impacts which I could trace through but I’ve fortunately run out of time in this question.”
Anne said:
The trade deficit is not being forced on us because there is all sorts of saving needing to be poured in on America to induce us to buy abroad.
How can we not have a trade deficit when there is minimal household saving and a fierce government deficit?
Brad said:
I wish Alan Greenspan had qualified his statement by noting a change in China’s peg sufficient to cut into their “savings glut/ consumption death” would make it more costly for the US to run a savings deficit, and through the channels Bernanke describes operating in reverse, lower the trade deficit …
It’s my judgment that Greenspan got it right. His views echo in clear language what I have addressed regarding the U.S. trade deficit on other threads.
Import prices increases will likely occur, but the overall production of such finished goods (as presently manufactured and assembled in China and elsewhere overseas) will remain offshore. The production cost differentials, barring considerable cost increases abroad, will not result in a shift to manufacturing and/or assembly of such goods in the USA.
As such, there is little likelihood that the U.S. trade deficit will decline in dollar terms due to production price increases in China if we’re relying on a supposed reduction in imports for such trade deficit reduction. Yes, Americans may buy fewer finished goods products from Asia due to price increases, but the dollar value of the such overall imports may not decline at all. Or will not decline until such time as the USA suffers another recession or significant economic slowing due to interest rate increases. In point of fact, the import dollar value of the trade balance may increase.
U.S. household savings will not necessarily increase because the currency of China is revalued. As the finished goods prices increase, Americans will hard pressed to add to such household savings without wage and other income increases. As long as the majority of household finished goods in this category of purchase are manufactured overseas, Americans will continue to buy them without regard for “Made in USA” substitutes because such substitutes do not, in general, exist. Americans will simply be paying higher prices for such goods.
As imports prices rise, the Fed may very well step in and mount a quick fight to stem inflation if enough other prices rise on the heels of import price increases or occur concurrently. So, American consumers may be stuck with higher interest rates as well. That effort may be followed by federal taxes/fees increases in 2008 which will further dampen U.S. household savings. In the meantime, municipal, county, and state taxes/fees may increase to offset budget shortfalls. And lurking in the background will be the probable decline of available equity extraction used for consumer consumption expenditures of goods and services.
The likelihood that poor and lower middle income U.S. household savings will increase is minimal in my judgment.
I suggest that alternate solutions to resolving the U.S. household savings dilemna be addressed, as imported household finished goods from Asia and other cheap global production sources will not decline substantially.
As Greenspan stated, “it’s probably quite unlikely” that an increase in the value of China’s currency will reduce the overall U.S. trade deficit.
I concur.
MG • May 21st, 2005 at 3:42 pm
CHINA’S CURRENCY CHANGE PROBABLY WILL NOT HELP SOLVE THE U.S. TRADE DEFICIT
CHINA’S CURRENCY CHANGE PROBABLY WILL NOT HELP SOLVE THE U.S. TRADE DEFICIT
MG • May 29th, 2005 at 9:04 pm
WHY U.S. TRADE POLICY IS SCREWED UP
The idea that comparative advantage theory will insure that U.S. trade agreements will result in a net benefit or gain to the American economy and citizens is ill-conceived. Yes, the corporations will benefit significantly, but the majority of the U.S. citizens will be left with lower standards of living. Without correction, lower standards of living will be all but insured.
The issues of transportation, logistics, and telecommunications efficiencies of international trade have not been adequately factored into the equations of net benefit to American citizens. These considerations replace the fixed resource substitution premises of comparative advantage theory. Time and distance no longer exist as major trade barriers or major costs. Back office work can be performed anywhere in the world. The same story for manufacturing, research, and other service industries. The USA will be left with few marketable and tradable global advantages for its 300 million population to concentrate on, other than direct community level required work applications.
Shaking Up Trade Theory, BusinessWeek, December 6, 2004
“Globalization, say most trade economists, ultimately should benefit the U.S. more than it hurts. But they can’t yet show that to be true. Until someone comes up with a convincing explanation for what happens when the highest-skilled jobs move offshore, battles over globalization are likely to rage even hotter.”
Economist Stephen A. Marglin or here
“The great 20th century economist John Maynard Keynes began “General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” by observing that before we can construct relevant theories for the present, we have to unlearn the useless theories of the past.”
“The practical men and women who are responsible for trade policy today are equally the slaves of outmoded dogma. The first step to a better trade policy is to clear our minds of the cobwebs of comparative advantage, the refuge of those who find it easier to justify the havoc wrought by outsourcing than to re-examine received ideas. We need trade and we need trade policy. We don’t need free-market mantras.”
Our trade policies are wrapped around the wrong theory.
MG • May 29th, 2005 at 9:07 pm
WHY US TRADE POLICY IS SCREWED UP
The idea that comparative advantage theory will insure that U.S. trade agreements will result in a net benefit or gain to the American economy and citizens is ill-conceived. Yes, the corporations will benefit significantly, but the majority of the U.S. citizens will be left with lower standards of living. Without correction, lower standards of living will be all but insured.
The issues of transportation, logistics, and telecommunications efficiencies of international trade have not been adequately factored into the equations of net benefit to American citizens. These considerations replace the fixed resource substitution premises of comparative advantage theory. Time and distance no longer exist as major trade barriers or major costs. Back office work can be performed anywhere in the world. The same story for manufacturing, research, and other service industries. The USA will be left with few marketable and tradable global advantages for its 300 million population to concentrate on, other than direct community level required work applications.
Our trade policies are wrapped around the wrong theory.
Shaking Up Trade Theory, BusinessWeek, December 6, 2004
Economist Stephen A. Marglin or here
“The practical men and women who are responsible for trade policy today are equally the slaves of outmoded dogma. The first step to a better trade policy is to clear our minds of the cobwebs of comparative advantage, the refuge of those who find it easier to justify the havoc wrought by outsourcing than to re-examine received ideas. We need trade and we need trade policy. We don’t need free-market mantras.”
Guest • June 1st, 2005 at 7:29 pm
MG • June 1st, 2005 at 10:17 pm
Test
Robert Barro–bio–vita–0/0/1–4/15/7
Harvard University, USA–News–
MG • June 1st, 2005 at 10:29 pm
Robert Barro–bio–vita–pubs-C/A 0/0/1–All 4/15/7–News
Harvard University, USA
Movie Guy • June 1st, 2005 at 11:43 pm
Economic Development Conference in China
Nobel Laureates Beijing Forum 2005
List of key economists who attended the Nobel Laureates Beijing Forum 2005
Note 1: Name–bio–vida–publications China/Asia B/P/A–All B/P/A–University–News
Note 2: B/P/A = Year 2000-2005 books/papers/articles (approximate quantities inserted)
Note 3: Click on any info for direct url links.
Alberto Alesina–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 4/21/18–Harvard University, USA — News
Robert Barro–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/1–All 4/15/7–Harvard University, USA–News
Robert W. Fogel–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/1/1–All 3/8/1–University of Chicago, USA–News
Clive W.J. Granger–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/1–All 1/12/35–University of California, USA–News
James A. Mirrlees–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 0/1/0–University of Cambridge, UK–News
Robert A. Mundell–bio–vita–pubs C/A 1/1/3–All 4/12/4–Columbia University, USA–Canadian is a permanent resident of China–News
John F. Nash Jr.–bio 1, 2–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 1/0/notes–Princeton University, USA–News
Edmund Phelps–bio 1, 2–vita–pubs C/A 0/5/0–All 3/23/20–Colombia University, USA–News
Edward C. Prescott–bio 1, 2–vita 1, 2–pubs C/A 0/1/1––All 1/17/9–Arizona State University, USA–News
Xavier Sala-i-Martin–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 4/33/TBD–Colombia University, USA–News
Klaus Schwab–bio 1, 2, 3–pubs C/A 313 documents–All extensive–World Economic Forum, Switzerland–News
Vernon L. Smith–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 1/4/11–28 pubs–George Mason University, USA–News
Joseph E. Stiglitz–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/4/6–All 10/6/15–Columbia University, USA–News
Michael Woodford–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 3/20/15–Colombia University, USA–News
The latest published news regarding the economists above is available by clicking on the News links shown with each of their names. The News links provide up-to-date Google news articles for each economist. No typing required. Just click, relax, and read.
Movie Guy • June 1st, 2005 at 11:48 pm
Economic Development Conference in China
Nobel Laureates Beijing Forum 2005
Forum Agenda
Forum News and Events
List of key economists who attended the Nobel Laureates Beijing Forum 2005
Note 1: Name–bio–vida–publications China/Asia B/P/A–All B/P/A–University–News
Note 2: B/P/A = Year 2000-2005 books/papers/articles (approximate quantities inserted)
Note 3: Click on any info for direct url links.
Alberto Alesina–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 4/21/18–Harvard University, USA — News
Robert Barro–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/1–All 4/15/7–Harvard University, USA–News
Robert W. Fogel–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/1/1–All 3/8/1–University of Chicago, USA–News
Clive W.J. Granger–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/1–All 1/12/35–University of California, USA–News
James A. Mirrlees–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 0/1/0–University of Cambridge, UK–News
Robert A. Mundell–bio–vita–pubs C/A 1/1/3–All 4/12/4–Columbia University, USA–Canadian is a permanent resident of China–News
John F. Nash Jr.–bio 1, 2–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 1/0/notes–Princeton University, USA–News
Edmund Phelps–bio 1, 2–vita–pubs C/A 0/5/0–All 3/23/20–Colombia University, USA–News
Edward C. Prescott–bio 1, 2–vita 1, 2–pubs C/A 0/1/1––All 1/17/9–Arizona State University, USA–News
Xavier Sala-i-Martin–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 4/33/TBD–Colombia University, USA–News
Klaus Schwab–bio 1, 2, 3–pubs C/A 313 documents–All extensive–World Economic Forum, Switzerland–News
Vernon L. Smith–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 1/4/11–28 pubs–George Mason University, USA–News
Joseph E. Stiglitz–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/4/6–All 10/6/15–Columbia University, USA–News
Michael Woodford–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 3/20/15–Colombia University, USA–News
The latest published news regarding the economists above is available by clicking on the News links shown with each of their names. The News links provide up-to-date Google news articles for each economist. No typing required. Just click, relax, and read.
MG • June 1st, 2005 at 11:49 pm
Economic Development Conference in China
Nobel Laureates Beijing Forum 2005
Forum Agenda
Forum News and Events
MG • June 1st, 2005 at 11:55 pm
Economic Development Conference in China
Nobel Laureates Beijing Forum 2005
Forum Agenda
Forum News and Events
List of key economists who attended the Nobel Laureates Beijing Forum 2005
Note 1: Name–bio–vida–publications China/Asia B/P/A–All B/P/A–University–News
Note 2: B/P/A = Year 2000-2005 books/papers/articles (researched quantities inserted)
Note 3: Click on any info for direct url links.
Alberto Alesina–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 4/21/18–Harvard University, USA — News
Robert Barro–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/1–All 4/15/7–Harvard University, USA–News
Robert W. Fogel–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/1/1–All 3/8/1–University of Chicago, USA–News
Clive W.J. Granger–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/1–All 1/12/35–University of California, USA–News
James A. Mirrlees–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 0/1/0–University of Cambridge, UK–News
Robert A. Mundell–bio–vita–pubs C/A 1/1/3–All 4/12/4–Columbia University, USA–Canadian is a permanent resident of China–News
John F. Nash Jr.–bio 1, 2–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 1/0/notes–Princeton University, USA–News
Edmund Phelps–bio 1, 2–vita–pubs C/A 0/5/0–All 3/23/20–Colombia University, USA–News
Edward C. Prescott–bio 1, 2–vita 1, 2–pubs C/A 0/1/1–All 1/17/9–Arizona State University, USA–News
Xavier Sala-i-Martin–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 4/33/TBD–Colombia University, USA–News
Klaus Schwab–bio 1, 2, 3–pubs C/A 313 documents–All extensive–World Economic Forum, Switzerland–News
Vernon L. Smith–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 1/4/11–28 pubs–George Mason University, USA–News
Joseph E. Stiglitz–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/4/6–All 10/6/15–Columbia University, USA–News
Michael Woodford–bio–vita–pubs C/A 0/0/0–All 3/20/15–Colombia University, USA–News
The latest published news regarding the economists above is available by clicking on the News links shown with each of their names. The News links provide up-to-date Google news articles for each economist. No typing required. Just click, relax, and read.
Movie Guy • June 2nd, 2005 at 1:47 am
Brad,
You can delete ALL OF THESE comments.
TEST POSTS.
I’ve been using this thread for post builds.
Thought I would mention it…
MG
MG • June 2nd, 2005 at 5:47 pm
“What are the Nobel economists saying in Beijing? Or do we have to wait until they come home?”
News from the Nobel group of and others:
Alberto Alesina – News
Robert Barro – News
Robert W. Fogel – News
Clive W.J. Granger – News
James A. Mirrlees – News
Robert A. Mundell – News
John F. Nash Jr. – News
Edmund Phelps – News
Edward C. Prescott – News
Xavier Sala-i-Martin – News
Klaus Schwab – News
Vernon L. Smith – News
Joseph E. Stiglitz – News
Michael Woodford – News
MG • June 2nd, 2005 at 5:48 pm
“What are the Nobel economists saying in Beijing? Or do we have to wait until they come home?”
News from the Nobel group of and others:
Alberto Alesina – News; Robert Barro – News; Robert W. Fogel – News; Clive W.J. Granger – News; James A. Mirrlees – News; Robert A. Mundell – News; John F. Nash Jr. – News; Edmund Phelps – News; Edward C. Prescott – News; Xavier Sala-i-Martin – News; Klaus Schwab – News; Vernon L. Smith – News; Joseph E. Stiglitz – News; Michael Woodford – News
MG • July 1st, 2005 at 7:56 pm
TEST POST:
Let’s add a few elements of reality to the lengthy sub discussion regarding the role of China’s central government in energy matters.
China as a nation has an energy strategy. China has internal energy policies. China promotes developmental relationships with its nation-state trading partners. Such efforts include national negotiations on behalf of its government and corporations on such matters as crude oil sources, pipelines, refineries, exchanges of technology, and other matters as pertain to securing energy resources for China. These national efforts are not so different from other nation-to-nation trade negotiations conducted on behalf of state-controlled and commercial corporations of each nation involved.
China is most assuredly in communication with its energy corporations as China undertakes efforts to represent their best interests in discussions with China’s trading partners. Any national government worth its salt would undertake similar efforts in securing adequate energy sources for its people and industrial base. (The only real difference in the USA is that large U.S. corporations sometimes fail to acknowledge any general responsibilities to the tribe of people from which such companies originated. Hence, U.S. transnational corporations are known to take a pass on national loyalties occasionally or threaten to relocate offshore. But this disgraceful and greedy situation is another story…)
Currently, China is negotiating successfully with Russia on a wide range of trade matters, including crude oil production and distribution. These initiatives are being undertaken at central government levels and corporate levels.
Russia News Media:
Russian News and Information Agency – 1 July – Rosneft, CNPC plan long-term cooperation
China News Media:
China Daily – 30 June – President Hu in Moscow for official visit
China View – 1 July – Chinese, Russian presidents hold talks in Moscow
China Daily – 2 July – Deals pave way for closer Sino-Russian links
U.K. News Media:
Reuters – 29 June – China courts Russia, Kazakhstan in hunt for oil
U.S. News Media:
Bloomberg – 1 July – Rosneft Opens Up Russian Fuel Sector for Chinese Oil Companies
MarketWatch – 1 July – Rosneft signs oil, gas agreements with Chinese companies
MG • July 4th, 2005 at 9:25 pm
TEST POST:
As we know, interest in crude oil concerns is significant. The contributors to this thread helped round out the picture with a number of excellent posts.
Here’s a recap of most articles posted on this thread, including quick links. A few additional articles of interest have been added.
CRUDE OIL – GLOBAL ISSUES
Unocal – CNOOC
Sun Bin: Sun Bin’s fine blog: CNOOC/Unocal: the business perspective of the Rothschild proposal – 2 July 2005
New Article: Chinese Bid For Unocal: More Than Meets The Eye – 1 July 2005
Brad: China’s Latest ‘Threat’ – 27 June 2005
Movie Guy: Chevron Criticizes Rival Suitor – 25 June 2005
Brad: Group’s assets a ‘plum’ in anyone’s pudding – 23 June 2005 (Subscription)
Previous Web Log Post: Brad and contributors: The joys of being a creditor nation
Global Outlook and Updates
Stormy: Guardian – Oil and Petrol articles – Latest update
New Article: Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) unlikely to emerge as OPEC equivalent – 1 July 2005
Movie Guy: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Reports – latest reports
Brad: China syndrome – 28 June 2005
Historical Problems and Comparisons
Brad: Need something more to worry about? – 22 June 2005
Edward Hugh: French sleaze inquiry names names – 4 February 2002
Canada
Alex: Not elk, but oil: China’s Canadian hunt – 24 December 2004
Alex: Canada To Compete In Oil Market – 17 Feb 2005
Alex: Sinopec Buys into Canadian Oil Sands – 1 June 2005
China
Sun Bin: Sun Bin’s fine blog: CNOOC/Unocal: the business perspective of the Rothschild proposal – 2 July 2005
Glory: Chinese companies abroad – The dragon tucks in – 30 June 2005
Brad: China’s Costly Quest for Energy Control – 27 June 2005
Brad: China Matters blog: China Goes Long–On Oil – 27 June 2005
Brad: Barnett weblog – Crazy Talk Central on China – 27 June 2005
Brad: Amity Shlaes: US begins rethink on China – 26 June 2005 (Subscription)
Ecuador
Brad: Ecuador aims to strengthen China links – 29 June 2005 (Subscription)
Eurasia
Andrew: Revolution, geopolitics and pipelines (Eurasia) – 30 June 2005
New Article: Pipelineistan’s biggest game begins –
India
New Article: India-China-US and the Energy Conundrum – 30 June 2005
Iraq
Anatoli: Iraq: The carve-up begins – 23 June 2005
Japan
RW: Japan and China face off over energy – 2 July 2005
New Article: Japan and China face off over energy – 2 July 2005 ** Identified to reflect another good source for energy information.
New Article: China Gorging and Japan-China Resource and Energy Conflicts – 29 June 2005 ** Original source for the above two articles; longer version.
OECD Nations
Brad: Profiles of Petroleum Privatizations in OECD Countries – undated
Russia
Movie Guy: Rosneft Opens Up Russian Fuel Sector for Chinese Oil Companies – l July 2005
Movie Guy: Deals pave way for closer Sino-Russian links – 2 July 2005
Movie Guy: Rosneft, CNPC plan long-term cooperation – 1 July 2005
Saudi Arabia
New Article: The Saudi oil bombshell – 29 June 2005
Turkey – Greece
New Article: Turkey, Greece launch pipeline project – Southern Europe Gas Ring Project – 4 July 2005
United Kingdom
RW: Energy ration cards for everyone planned – 2 July 2005
United States of America
FT: Foreign Suitors Nothing New in U.S. Oil Patch – 1 July 2005
Venezuela
Alex: Venezuela and China sign oil deal – 24 December 2004
Miguel: Chávez uses ‘oil diplomacy’ to build regional influence – 1 July 2005
New Article: Venezuela looks to expand oil reserves – 2 July 2005
New Article: The US and the Chavez question – 1 July 2005
Trade Issues Comparison
MC3: Wireless Communications Association International: 2005 Annual Conference
Global Warming
No name: Blair may ‘snub’ Bush on climate at G-8 – 1 July 2005
Global Savings
Global Currencies and Paper Money
Movie Guy • July 4th, 2005 at 9:28 pm
TEST POST:
As we know, interest in crude oil concerns is significant. The contributors to this thread helped round out the picture with a number of excellent posts.
Here’s a recap of most articles posted on this thread, including quick links. A few additional articles of interest have been added.
CRUDE OIL – GLOBAL ISSUES
Unocal – CNOOC
Sun Bin: Sun Bin’s fine blog: CNOOC/Unocal: the business perspective of the Rothschild proposal – 2 July 2005
New Article: Chinese Bid For Unocal: More Than Meets The Eye – 1 July 2005
Brad: China’s Latest ‘Threat’ – 27 June 2005
Movie Guy: Chevron Criticizes Rival Suitor – 25 June 2005
Brad: Group’s assets a ‘plum’ in anyone’s pudding – 23 June 2005 (Subscription)
Previous Web Log Post: Brad and contributors: The joys of being a creditor nation
Global Outlook and Updates
Stormy: Guardian – Oil and Petrol articles – Latest update
New Article: Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) unlikely to emerge as OPEC equivalent – 1 July 2005
Movie Guy: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Reports – latest reports
Brad: China syndrome – 28 June 2005
Historical Problems and Comparisons
Brad: Need something more to worry about? – 22 June 2005
Edward Hugh: French sleaze inquiry names names – 4 February 2002
Canada
Alex: Not elk, but oil: China’s Canadian hunt – 24 December 2004
Alex: Canada To Compete In Oil Market – 17 Feb 2005
Alex: Sinopec Buys into Canadian Oil Sands – 1 June 2005
China
Sun Bin: Sun Bin’s fine blog: CNOOC/Unocal: the business perspective of the Rothschild proposal – 2 July 2005
Glory: Chinese companies abroad – The dragon tucks in – 30 June 2005
Brad: China’s Costly Quest for Energy Control – 27 June 2005
Brad: China Matters blog: China Goes Long–On Oil – 27 June 2005
Brad: Barnett weblog – Crazy Talk Central on China – 27 June 2005
Brad: Amity Shlaes: US begins rethink on China – 26 June 2005 (Subscription)
Ecuador
Brad: Ecuador aims to strengthen China links – 29 June 2005 (Subscription)
Eurasia
Andrew: Revolution, geopolitics and pipelines (Eurasia) – 30 June 2005
New Article: Pipelineistan’s biggest game begins –
India
New Article: India-China-US and the Energy Conundrum – 30 June 2005
Iraq
Anatoli: Iraq: The carve-up begins – 23 June 2005
Japan
RW: Japan and China face off over energy – 2 July 2005
New Article: Japan and China face off over energy – 2 July 2005 ** Identified to reflect another good source for energy information.
New Article: China Gorging and Japan-China Resource and Energy Conflicts – 29 June 2005 ** Original source for the above two articles; longer version.
OECD Nations
Brad: Profiles of Petroleum Privatizations in OECD Countries – undated
Russia
Movie Guy: Rosneft Opens Up Russian Fuel Sector for Chinese Oil Companies – l July 2005
Movie Guy: Deals pave way for closer Sino-Russian links – 2 July 2005
Movie Guy: Rosneft, CNPC plan long-term cooperation – 1 July 2005
Saudi Arabia
New Article: The Saudi oil bombshell – 29 June 2005
Turkey – Greece
New Article: Turkey, Greece launch pipeline project – Southern Europe Gas Ring Project – 4 July 2005
United Kingdom
RW: Energy ration cards for everyone planned – 2 July 2005
United States of America
FT: Foreign Suitors Nothing New in U.S. Oil Patch – 1 July 2005
Venezuela
Alex: Venezuela and China sign oil deal – 24 December 2004
Miguel: Chávez uses ‘oil diplomacy’ to build regional influence – 1 July 2005
New Article: Venezuela looks to expand oil reserves – 2 July 2005
New Article: The US and the Chavez question – 1 July 2005
Trade Issues Comparison
MC3: Wireless Communications Association International: 2005 Annual Conference
Global Warming
No name: Blair may ‘snub’ Bush on climate at G-8 – 1 July 2005
Global Savings
Global Currencies and Paper Money
