New #blogpost: "Let Syria Split" - Stefano Casertano on a two-state solution for #Syria @RadioBerlino http://t.co/H4iHsuIf43
16 minutes ago
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A program of “rigor without austerity” for the Italian government
Enrico Letta has recently presented to Parliament the “grand coalition” government he chairs. In his parliamentary speeches, Letta has clearly indicated that he intends to pursue a growth strategy based on tax cuts (or cancelled/postponed tax rises), without this implying new debt or breaking European agreements. At the same time, he did not indicate too [...]
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The Evolution of the ECB’s Thinking on Negative Deposit Rates
The OECD has been telling the ECB to cut rates since November last year; today, after nearly half a year, the tortise-like ECB acted, cutting two rates that don’t really matter much. The ECB opened up two more doors today, though it hasn’t walked through them: first on securitization of SME loans into ABS, and second, to lower [...]
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Nowakowski on CNBC to Discuss Cyprus
RGE’s Senior Director of Research David Nowakowski appeared on CNBC to discuss the evolving situation in Cyprus, where depositors are moving out, Russian investors are cautious and bank runs have returned. View the videos below, or go to CNBC for clips here, here and here.
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Krugman vs. Druckenmiller: A Blow by Blow Analysis
Paul Krugman (PK) recently accused Stan Druckenmiller (SD) of insensitivity to the working class because of the hedge fund superhero’s worries (as reported by Business Insider, from an interview with Bloomberg) that QE and an explicit policy of holding rates down for very long might [lead to bubbles]. Of course SD is NOT against recovery, per [...]
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Can Portfolio Flows Play a Dual Role in Brazil in 2013?
Brazil’s current account remained relatively stable in 2012, with a deficit of around 2.4% of GDP, slightly higher than the 2011 deficit of 2.1% of GDP. The CAD was fully funded by FDI, which summed US$68 billion (3% of GDP), while portfolio flows remained anemic at 0.4% of GDP. These dynamics prevailed throughout 2012, so [...]
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Why Did Brazil Underperform its Peers in 2012? Policy.
The end of Q4 brought forward interesting dynamics in the LatAm region: Namely, a sharp deceleration in inflation in every inflation-targeting economy, with the exception of Brazil (although we expected inflation to soothe by year-end in Mexico, Chile and Peru, the deceleration was much stronger than anticipated, and downward revisions to our inflation forecasts could [...]
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Do New Laws and Budgets Automatically Supercede Old Laws and Debt Ceilings? A Legal Q&A
RGE Senior Manager of Research David Nowakowski sits down to discuss how new legislation is reconciled with older laws with attorney David Mollow, presenting implications for the debt ceiling, government borrowing and trade law. Nowakowski: If a law is passed that contradicts existing law, but does not directly make a reference to the current law being [...]
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Das: Inflows to India Should Continue in 2013, Provided Adjustment Continues
In late December, RGE Managing Director Arnab Das sat down with Thompson Reuters to discuss the year ahead for India. Following strong inflows in 2012, Das noted that “the global environment has become much more supportive of risk-taking and fund flows to EMs, and India has benefited from that as a very high-beta play,” but [...]
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The Rich Got $17 Trillion Richer
Despite the many negative headlines, 2012 was a good year for markets. Listed below is a rough snapshot of total returns in USD – most asset classes returned double-digits. 2012 was a year to look through pessimism – how did your PA do? I would estimate that Global Financial Wealth rose by $17,500,000,000,000 to $162 trillion (I ignore [...]
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What to Watch in 2013: Eastern Europe/CIS edition
The following inexhaustive list is a companion to last week’s post on things to watch in MENA and our recently published outlooks. In general our regional outlook, like our global one, has become brighter on the margins but emphasizes the divergence in growth across the region and across emerging and frontier markets. We’ll be treating [...]
