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    Emerging Markets

  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    Acting Collectively: A Better Way to Restructure Government Debt

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  • Zambian Economist

    Economic developments (Debt, Aviation, Health)

    Some interesting economic news that may have escaped your attention in the middle of the current political excitment! Finance Minister Alexander Chikwanda wants Cabinet to approve a US$100m loan in order to repay another LAP GreenN loan obtained in 2011 to upgrade Zamtel. Chikwanda is apparently seeking $100m from Exim Bank of China to pay ZTE on behalf of LAP GreenN. In June 2010, theLAP GreenN acquired a 75 per cent stake in Zamtel, only to be nationalised in 2012 by PF. (Source : The Post)Enock Kavindele recently confirmed that North Western Rail (NWR) has mobilised the US$1 billion required for construction of the 590 kilometre line project. The private sector driven project, would commence early next year in two phases, of which phase-one involved construction...more

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  • Zambian Economist

    Sata's economic legacy

    What is Michael Sata’s economic legacy? Here is how the Fredson Yamba (Treasury Secretary) explained it in a press release after Sata died :Under [Sata’s] able leadership and guidance, the economy grew by more than 6 percent per annum, well above the Sub- Saharan Africa average, while inflation has been contained within single-digits. The external sector, especially non-traditional exports grew significantly with agriculture exports exceeding US$1 billion dollars, the highest in the history of the country. This reflects his will for the country to diversify the economy.. As Zambians we also witnessed an unprecedented focus on capital investment in social and economic infrastructure, particularly in health, education, roads, rails, and energy sectors. Recognizin...more

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  • Zambian Economist

    Monetary Policy Statement (November 2014)

    Editor's note:  BOZ Governor Michael Gondwe yesterday delivered the following Monetary Policy Statement. It is intended as a quarterly snapshot of the state of the economy, with particular focus on the monetary side. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met yesterday, 18 th November 2014, to consider developments in the domestic economy over the third quarter of 2014. In its deliberations, the MPC also considered global economic developments and their likely ramifications on the Central Bank’s ability to achieve its core objective of maintaining price stability.GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSThe prospects for global growth have worsened since the August MPC meeting, with repercussions on commodity prices and global financial flows.In October the International M...more

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  • Ajay Shah's blog

    Reducing the cost of doing business in India: One example (ADR/GDR regulations)

    by Pratik Datta and Ajay Shah. Last week, the Ministry of Finance notified the Depository Receipts Scheme, 2014 (`2014 Scheme'). This replaces the 1993 Scheme with respect to depository receipts. The key materials on this subject are: The Sahoo Committee Report, which provided the intelletual framework, and drafted the 2014 Scheme. An article about this Report A brief video summarising the Report. The 2014 Scheme improves upon the 1993 Scheme in two dimensions: economic thinking and legal drafting quality. Improved economic thinking The 1993 Scheme was a haphazard set of interventions by the government in the working of the economy, without a clear rationale. The 2014 Scheme is logical and clear in the role of the government. Every policy intervention is...more

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  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    Growth: An Essential Part of a Cure for Unemployment

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  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    Building a Camaraderie of Central Bankers: How Monetary Policymakers in the Caucasus and Central Asia Can Learn From Each Other

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  • Private Sector Development - News and views on a competitive private sector and a resilient financial sector

    Credit for All: Increasing Women's Access to Finance

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  • Ajay Shah's blog

    The imprecision of volatility indexes

    by Rohini Grover and Ajay Shah. A remarkable feature of options trading is that it reveals a forward-looking measure of the market's view of future volatility. This was first done by CBOE in 1993 with the S&P 500 index options, with an information product named `VIX' which reveals the market's view of future volatility of the US stock market index. CBOE computes and disseminates VIX every 15 seconds. VIX is often termed a `fear index' as it conveys the fears of the market. It has found numerous applications: Time-series econometrics processes historical data to help us make statements about the future. VIX brings a unique forward-looking perspective into time-series analysis. VIX measures uncertainty in the economy e.g. when examining the effect of mac...more

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  • Atanu Dey On India's Development

    Nov 14th as the “Day of Shame and Lamentations for India.”

    Why Indians celebrate Children’s Day on Nov 14th is a bit of a mystery to me. Of course I know that Jawaharlal Nehru, the father of the Nehru-Gandhi political dynasty was born on Nov 14th. Why would anyone consider him to be significant for Indian children is the mysterious part. If the facts be considered, Indians should observe Children’s Day on some other day than a day that is somehow related to Nehru. For two very pertinent reasons. First, contrary to the government brainwashing, Nehru wasn’t particularly fond of children. He was, according to some reliable sources, very short-tempered with them and had them removed from his presence immediately after the de rigueur photo ops. Sure, he liked roses and the ladies but I find all claims that he someh...more

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  • Private Sector Development - News and views on a competitive private sector and a resilient financial sector

    Inclusive Growth as the Path Toward Sustainable Development: A New Initiative on 'Equality of Opportunity in Global Prosperity'

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  • Private Sector Development - News and views on a competitive private sector and a resilient financial sector

    Building for Development: Could Infrastructure Draw Unexpected Investors to Africa?

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  • Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS

    China, Europe, and optimal currency zones

    I typically think of four main factors that determine whether or not an economy can function efficiently as a single currency or economic zone. They primarily determine the level of adjustments costs and how these costs are to be shared, so that regions more able to bear the costs absorb a larger share of those costs: Labor mobility. If workers can move from one part of the economy to another with low frictional costs (which range from legal restrictions to transportation to language and other social barriers), this reduces the distortions caused by differing growth rates in different parts of the economy. Workers move easily from where they are less valuable to where they are more valuable, reducing downward pressure on wages in the weaker parts of the economy and inc...more

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  • Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS

    Should Beijing raise subway fares?

    Reuters had an article yesterday about the rumors, and I too have heard about this over the past couple of months, that Beijing will raise subway prices. This topic is pretty specific and specialized compared to what I normally write about on this blog, but because a friend asked me to discuss the topic with him for an article he was writing, I did do some thinking which although hurried I thought might be of interest to some readers, mainly because thinking about the “correct” subway fare in Beijing is a useful way to think about infrastructure investment more generally. For many years there had been a huge battle (well, actually a tiny battle because one aside consisted of no more than three or four China specialists) about the extent of misallocated investment in...more

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  • Ajay Shah's blog

    Rethinking the policy framework in coal

    by Suyash Rai and Ajay Shah. India needs more coal Coal is the dirtiest of all modern fuels, whether measured by habitat destruction in mining areas, or CO2, SPM and SOx emissions, or radioactivity. However, there is no alternative to coal in India's energy strategy, as coal makes up half of India's energy consumption today, and as India is blessed with strong natural resources. Despite the strategic importance of coal in India's energy strategy, domestic production growth has been slow, with an average compound growth of 3.65% per year between 1990-91 and 2013-14 (from 247.56 million tonnes to 565 million tonnes). Over that same period, coal imports went up from 5.56 million tonnes in 1990-91 to 171 million tonnes in 2013-14, a compound growth rate of 16.06%...more

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  • Atanu Dey On India's Development

    Happy Deepavali

    ॐ Asato maa satgamaya Tamaso maa jyotir gamaya Mrityor maa amritam gamaya ॐ Happy Deepavali. Happy Diwali.

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  • Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS

    How to link Australian iron with Marine le Pen

    After last week’s tumultuous markets one of my clients sent me an email saying “I am so relieved your constant talk about worsening imbalances kept us from getting too complacent. Things really are as bad as you keep saying.” I am not sure that what happened last week is proof of anything I’ve been saying, but I do think that the framework I have used over the past decade has been useful, at least to me, in understanding both the rebalancing process in China and the events that led up to the global crisis of 2007-08. And I think it continues to be useful in judging the adjustment process – or, more likely, the lack of adjustment – that explains why we still have a rough ride ahead of us. This framework has made it relatively easy to make predictions, someti...more

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  • The Peking Duck

    Shaun Rein wants your help marketing The End of Copycat China

    The End of Copycat China is the name of Shaun Rein’s new book that will be available come October 20. I am flattered that Shaun has included me on the mailing list he uses to blast information to his friends and colleagues, and I wanted to draw attention to how he wants his fans to do the marketing for his new book for him. Over the last three months Shaun has sent out two lengthy email blasts and I find their content to be intriguing, and to confirm some of my own thoughts about Mr. Rein. Perhaps most revealing was this paragraph: If you or a friend are looking for a keynote speaker, consider me. If organizations buy 1000 copies of my book to give to attendees between October and December, I will waive my standard speaking rates at my speaker’s bureau (my...more

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  • Atanu Dey On India's Development

    The Indian Constitution — Part 2

    George Orwell claimed, “In a time of universal deceit – telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” By that measure, a commitment to telling the truth as one sees it must make one a bit of a revolutionary. Here I continue with my argument that the Indian constitution is the fountainhead of all of India’s troubles. Unless and until it is replaced, India will continue to languish at the bottom of the heap. That claim predictably makes people uncomfortable. In this series I aim to support argue for its truth. (Here is the first part.) In this part, I examine the importance of rules. An economy essentially is a collection of interacting human beings. For any group of two or more people, this collective interaction requires rules. These rules could ha...more

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  • The Gulf blog

    Qatar Just Isn’t That Evil

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  • The Gulf blog

    Can Qatar, Saudi Arabia ease tensions at Gulf Cooperation Council?

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  • The Peking Duck

    Is Falung Gong a dangerous cult? Is it a cult at all?

    I’ll admit it right at the beginning: I’ve always found there to be something creepy about the Falun Gong. I remember seeing practitioners in Taipei sitting with their eyes closed meditating endlessly. I remember their anti-CCP literature. I remember meeting a group of practitioners at the local annual China celebration day in Phoenix and finding them generally icky. But just because I find them creepy doesn’t mean they are a cult, let alone a dangerous one. This excellent article presents the argument of one of the best informed China Hands I’ve ever read, Ian Johnson, who argues that the FG is not a cult. In “Wild Grass: Three Portraits of Change in Modern China,” Ian Johnson writes that the “cult” label was designed to “[cl...more

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  • All Roads Lead to China

    Foxconn Moving Direct to Consumer

    I remember having conversations years ago about what Foxconn would do going forward, and whether or not they would be happy as the manufacturer to brands.   The WSJ article, Amid Margin Squeeze, Foxconn Designs Its Own Fate, puts this question to rest. Recently, the $130-billion-a-year in revenue company has ventured into handset accessories under its own brand, and sales and distribution of mobile phones. It also plans to offer telecommunications services in Taiwan. For me, this has always been a bit of a no brainer.  Foxconn has an amazing amount of talent in the firm that is not just managing the supply chain and assembling gadgets for their customer, but have for years also been bringing designs to the brands that they feel would sell well in the market. Partner ...more

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  • Frontier Nations

    ANC seen pushing market-friendly economic policy

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  • Frontier Nations

    Ethiopia builds on economic momentum

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  • Frontier Nations

    North Africa walks job creation tightrope

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  • All Roads Lead to China

    Bites of China. Finally a Show Worth Watching!

    A couple of weeks back, while riding the G train back from Nanjing, something caught my eye.  An advertisement by CCTV for what I believe could be one of the best produced shows China has put together.  At first, I had no idea what the advertisement for, but what was clear was that it was celebrating the various food flavors of China, and those who are tilling the fields and preparing the dishes. The show is called Bite of China, and I cannot recommend it enough. Sure, China is known for its fair share of food failures, including recycled oil, but watching this show has restored a bit of my love for the flavors here.  Flavors that were actually the basis for one of my earliest posts, and have provided a never ending hunt for me and my wife as we look to try new thin...more

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  • The Gulf blog

    Qatar 2022 teeters towards disaster

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  • The Peking Duck

    Twenty-five years later

    I never before saw all the raw video footage of “Tank Man’s” defiance against a column of army tanks until today. It is remarkable, how one nameless man entered all of our living rooms for just a moment and is remembered so vividly a quarter of a century later. And for good reason. Let’s keep the hundreds of murdered innocents in our thoughts today, and keep alive the fight to let the Chinese people know all who died during the crackdown. Let’s remember the Tiananmen Mothers, and let’s even hope for the day when the CCP admits the demonstrations were not an act of “counterrevolutionary” treachery inspired by foreign subversives, but an expression of the Chinese people’s yearning for a say in their government, for t...more

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  • All Roads Lead to China

    What Do China’s Millennials Want ?

    For a number of years, I had it pretty good.  I had a number of teams that were under me, were stable, and were producing.  It was at a time when a lot of questions were being asked about the post 80s generation in China, but for whatever reason I was immune. But, those days are over, and just yesterday I had another millennial go AWOL on me.  So, it was perhaps interesting timing that CNBC put up the article Millennials may be more like boomers than we realize highlighting how several studies point to a generation that is looking for meaning in their job, in their company, and for balance: A new study from Deloitte also found differences in workplace attitudes between millennials and older generations, saying that the former “want to work for organizations tha...more

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  • Patrick Chovanec

    Twins!

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  • ChinaBizGov

    China's Green Car Sales in 2012

    Just a few years ago, pretty much everyone (except Chinese auto industry insiders whom I interviewed) thought China was about to take ownership of the global green car market. (Here's just one example from the excitable Tom Friedman of the New York Times.)In 2009 China's industrial planners announced plans to have 500,000 green cars ("New Energy Vehicles" or "新能源汽车" -- a combination of electrics and hybrids) on Chinese roads by the end of 2011. That obviously didn't happen, so last year, that same target of 500,000 was pushed out to 2015.So how did green car sales fare in 2012? Overall, hybrids plus electrics grew a respectable 52 percent.So while sales grew pretty well in percentage terms, it is clear that overall numbers are still inconsequential when you co...more

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  • Patrick Chovanec

    What Causes Revolutions?

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  • Patrick Chovanec

    Enter the New Year

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  • ChinaBizGov

    Comparing Corruption in China and the US

    Today's WSJ China Realtime reports on a study by a George Mason University economist who attempts to compare corruption in the US and China.  His conclusion is that corruption in America's Gilded Age (1877-1893)* was worse than corruption in China today.Perhaps the conclusion is correct, but the methodology used by this professor is flawed.  US corruption is measured by mentions of corruption in US newspapers 1870-1930.  China corruption is measured by mentions of corruption in US (not Chinese!) newspapers 1990-2011.So he is measuring corruption in two countries by the number of times the newspapers of only one of the countries mentions the word.  Even if the researcher had used Chinese newspapers, the study still would have been flawed due to Commun...more

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  • ChinaBizGov

    GM and SAIC: Trouble in Paradise?

    General Motors (GM) and Shanghai Auto (SAIC) announced in December of 2009 that they were deepening their partnership beyond their joint venture in China.  Together they created a 50:50 joint venture, registered in Hong Kong, for expansion outside of China.  Now that partnership appears to be coming apart.Initially, the plan for the HK JV was for the two sides to work together in India and possibly elsewhere in the future.  (For further insight into this particular deal, please see Chapter 4 of Designated Drivers.) As for the India venture, GM would contribute two existing factories in India, along with its Chevrolet brand, and SAIC would contribute cash -- something that GM had been seriously lacking as it had emerged from bankruptcy earlier that same ye...more

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Blogger Spotlight

Emre Deliveli The Kapali Carsi

Emre Deliveli is a freelance consultant, part-time lecturer in economics and columnist. Previously, Emre worked as economist for Citi Istanbul, covering Turkey and the Balkans. He was previously Director of Economic Studies at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey in Ankara and has has also worked at the World Bank, OECD, McKinsey and the Central Bank of Turkey. Emre holds a B.A., summa cum laude, from Yale University and undertook his PhD studies at Harvard University, in Economics.

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