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    Emerging Markets

  • Zambian Economist

    Lessons from Mangango

    By Bruce Choma The victory recorded by the Patriotic Front in the recently held by-election in Mangango is no mean achievement for them as a party seeking to establish national character.Opposition political parties in Zambia still have a lot to learn about the voting attitude of people in rural areas. They need to take a few steps back and ask themselves critical questions around their strategy and messaging.The Mangango polls were marred with electoral violence with clashes mainly between cadres and agents of the ruling Patriotic Front and the UPND. This did not do well to level the playing field and to an extent contributed to voter apathy. The PF is successfully using these incidences to paint the opposition as violent a tag they have to deal with in the upcomi...more

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  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    Which Way the Wind Blows

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  • Ajay Shah's blog

    Work on the 7th Pay Commission

    Background In a resolution dated 28th February, 2014, the Government of India has appointed the Seventh Central Pay Commission. Headquartered in Delhi, this Pay Commission has been given 18 months from date of its constitution to make its recommendations. Two full time researchers are required to support these ongoing activities. The selected candidates will provide support the work of the Commission on research, data analysis, and critical policy and legal literature reviews. Competencies The ideal candidate shall have the following competencies: Functional competencies Ability to use databases and handle large data sets. Ability to conduct secondary research through the use of databases (such as Elsevier, JSTOR, Emerald Research and other journal da...more

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  • Ajay Shah's blog

    What does algorithmic trading do to market quality?

    by Nidhi Aggarwal and Susan Thomas. Electronics unsettled the world of organised financial markets when the trading floor and dealers became obsolete. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, this was the subject of great debate. `Program trading' and `portfolio insurance' were believed to have exacerbated the crash of October 1987. Many people believed that human market makers did things that computerised order matching could not. Millions of jobs were on the line. When DTB won back the long bond contract from LIFFE by replacing the trading floor, the writing was on the wall. For some time, it was still claimed that electronic order matching exchanges are good for some things like equities and derivatives, but not for the bond ...more

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  • Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS

    What does a “good” Chinese adjustment look like?

    I have always thought that the soft landing/hard landing debate wholly misses the point when it comes to China’s economic prospects. It confuses the kinds of market-based adjustments we are likely to see in the US or Europe with the much more controlled process we see in China. Instead of a hard landing or a soft landing, the Chinese economy faces two very different options, and these will be largely determined by the policies Beijing chooses over the next two years. Beijing can manage a rapidly declining pace of credit creation, which must inevitably result in much slower although healthier GDP growth. Or Beijing can allow enough credit growth to prevent a further slowdown but, once the perpetual rolling-over of bad loans absorbs most of the country’s loan creatio...more

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  • Zambian Economist

    Mangango, PF and 2016 elections

    By Michael ChishalaOn 20 August 2014 (the day after the Mangango by-election), an article was published on Zambian Economist (ZE) Facebook page claiming that "...if elections were held today across the country, PF would win it comfortably because they continue to consolidate the rural vote, capitalising on their better organisation and financial resources." Furthermore, "It also means that any broadly reasonable candidate for PF in 2016 should secure re-election, provided PF do not do anything stupid between now and then." I wish to respectfully disagree with both the conclusions and reasoning in the article as follows:1. In Zambia, it is close to impossible to make a solid prediction about a future General election based on results of parliamentary by-elections because...more

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  • Zambian Economist

    Zambia Annual Economic Report 2013

    I was going through my report archive and I stumbled on this report. After checking I have concluded that unfortunately I have not shared it before. It has some helpful statistics pertaining to the Zambian economy last year. AUTHORChola MukangaEconomist | Consultant | ResearcherCopyright © Zambian Economist 2014...more

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  • Atanu Dey On India's Development

    Ganapati Vighana Haran Gajanana

    It’s that time of the year once again — the time of Ganesha’s visit and therefore this annual post which is a tradition on this blog. He is invoked at the beginnings of all endeavors. I recently bought a Chromebox. What better than having Ganesh grant his protection to the little computer? Last time I was in India, I had picked up a few small brass Ganeshas. So I placed one of them on the computer. Here’s the Vighana Haran, the Defeater of Obstacles, ensuring that the computer works fine. He looks quite comfortable, don’t you think? Ganesh is associated with the finer things of life. Learning, good food, wisdom, writing, knowledge. I approve of them all. So it is natural that he is one of my favorite gods. As part of Ganesha’s wor...more

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  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    More Jobs That Pay Decent Wages: How To Fight Poverty In The United States

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  • Ajay Shah's blog

    Consumer protection in Indian finance: Going from ideas to action

    by Renuka Sane and Ajay Shah. Financial regulation in India, at present, is oriented towards product regulation. While protecting the interest of customers is part of the mandate of all existing financial agencies, the present regulatory strategy is weak. The evidence on mis-selling is building up. The main focus of policy discussions has been prevention (e.g. ban on entry loads) with little work on enforcement (where orders are issued that impose penalties upon firms that have misbehaved). Many piecemeal changes of regulations are underway. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), for example, has recently published a Draft Charter of Customer Rights, which include: the right to fair treatment, the right to transpa...more

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  • Private Sector Development - News and views on a competitive private sector and a resilient financial sector

    Where’s the Romance? Special Economic Zones and Cities

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  • The Gulf blog

    Can Qatar, Saudi Arabia ease tensions at Gulf Cooperation Council?

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  • Private Sector Development - News and views on a competitive private sector and a resilient financial sector

    The Triumph of Strategy: Germany's 2014 World Cup Victory Shows How Shrewd Planning Can Sharpen Competitiveness

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  • Private Sector Development - News and views on a competitive private sector and a resilient financial sector

    A Tale of Two Competitive Cities: What Patterns Are Emerging So Far?

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  • Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS

    Can Pedro Sanchez save the PSOE?

    Last month Pedro Sánchez Castejón was chosen to be the new leader of Spain’s center-left Socialist Party (PSOE).  El Pais called his appointment a “renewal” of the PSOE, although Sánchez seems to have been chosen mainly because he is too young and unknown to suffer from the revulsion most Spaniards feel towards the political establishment. But as the PSOE’s new leader, and without much of the baggage carried around by the older generation of leaders, Sánchez has an important choice facing him. If he expects to lead Spain and his party out of its current crisis, he must recognize that the crisis is fundamentally a conflict between the interests of Europe’s bankers and of Europe’s workers, and he must reengineer PSOE’s policies in favor of the Spain’s...more

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  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    Structural Reforms Can Help Japan’s Post-Consumption Tax Blues

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  • Atanu Dey On India's Development

    Whose money is it anyway?

    Milton Friedman used to elegantly distinguish between four ways of spending money. First, when you spend your own money on yourself, you are very careful to get the most benefit for your buck. After all, it is your money and you know what you want for yourself. Second, when you spend your own money on someone else. Here too you carefully economize to meet your objective but since you don’t know the other person’s needs as well as you do your own needs, your spending may not be as optimal for the other person. Third, you spend other people’s money on yourself. In this case, your incentive to economize is certainly blunted. You are much more concerned with getting the best and less with what it will cost. Finally, when you spend other people’s mone...more

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  • The Peking Duck

    Is Falung Gong a dangerous cult? Is it a cult at all?

    I’ll admit it right at the beginning: I’ve always found there to be something creepy about the Falun Gong. I remember seeing practitioners in Taipei sitting with their eyes closed meditating endlessly. I remember their anti-CCP literature. I remember meeting a group of practitioners at the local annual China celebration day in Phoenix and finding them generally icky. But just because I find them creepy doesn’t mean they are a cult, let alone a dangerous one. This excellent article presents the argument of one of the best informed China Hands I’ve ever read, Ian Johnson, who argues that the FG is not a cult. In “Wild Grass: Three Portraits of Change in Modern China,” Ian Johnson writes that the “cult” label was designed to “[cl...more

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  • Atanu Dey On India's Development

    Mises on Bureaucracy

    “The characteristic feature of present-day policies is the trend toward a substitution of government control for free enterprise. Powerful political parties and pressure groups are fervently asking for public control of all economic activities, for thorough government planning, and for the nationalization of business. They aim at full government control of education and at the socialization of the medical profession. There is no sphere of human activity that they would not be prepared to subordinate to regimentation by the authorities. In their eyes, state control is the panacea for all ills.” Ludwig von Mises. “Bureaucracy”. Page 4. Yale University Press. New Haven. 1944. ...more

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  • Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS

    Bad debt cannot simply be “socialized”

    Once again I am going to discuss debt, and my discussion will be mainly conceptual. I suspect that many of my regular readers might wonder why I keep returning to this subject – and, often enough, keep saying the same things. The reason is because while debt plays a key role in understanding the recent evolution of the Chinese economy and the timing and process of its upcoming adjustment (as it also does for all if not most major economies), there seems to be a remarkable amount of confusion as to why debt matters. In much classical economics debt, or more generally the structure of the liability side of an economic entity, doesn’t even fundamentally matter to the growth of that entity. The liability side of the balance sheet is treated mainly as the way in whi...more

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  • All Roads Lead to China

    Foxconn Moving Direct to Consumer

    I remember having conversations years ago about what Foxconn would do going forward, and whether or not they would be happy as the manufacturer to brands.   The WSJ article, Amid Margin Squeeze, Foxconn Designs Its Own Fate, puts this question to rest. Recently, the $130-billion-a-year in revenue company has ventured into handset accessories under its own brand, and sales and distribution of mobile phones. It also plans to offer telecommunications services in Taiwan. For me, this has always been a bit of a no brainer.  Foxconn has an amazing amount of talent in the firm that is not just managing the supply chain and assembling gadgets for their customer, but have for years also been bringing designs to the brands that they feel would sell well in the market. Partner ...more

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  • Frontier Nations

    ANC seen pushing market-friendly economic policy

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  • Frontier Nations

    Ethiopia builds on economic momentum

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  • Frontier Nations

    North Africa walks job creation tightrope

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  • All Roads Lead to China

    Bites of China. Finally a Show Worth Watching!

    A couple of weeks back, while riding the G train back from Nanjing, something caught my eye.  An advertisement by CCTV for what I believe could be one of the best produced shows China has put together.  At first, I had no idea what the advertisement for, but what was clear was that it was celebrating the various food flavors of China, and those who are tilling the fields and preparing the dishes. The show is called Bite of China, and I cannot recommend it enough. Sure, China is known for its fair share of food failures, including recycled oil, but watching this show has restored a bit of my love for the flavors here.  Flavors that were actually the basis for one of my earliest posts, and have provided a never ending hunt for me and my wife as we look to try new thin...more

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  • The Gulf blog

    Qatar 2022 teeters towards disaster

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  • The Peking Duck

    Twenty-five years later

    I never before saw all the raw video footage of “Tank Man’s” defiance against a column of army tanks until today. It is remarkable, how one nameless man entered all of our living rooms for just a moment and is remembered so vividly a quarter of a century later. And for good reason. Let’s keep the hundreds of murdered innocents in our thoughts today, and keep alive the fight to let the Chinese people know all who died during the crackdown. Let’s remember the Tiananmen Mothers, and let’s even hope for the day when the CCP admits the demonstrations were not an act of “counterrevolutionary” treachery inspired by foreign subversives, but an expression of the Chinese people’s yearning for a say in their government, for t...more

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  • The Peking Duck

    Return of Liu Di, the “Stainless Steel Mouse”

    Those of you who have been reading this blog for ten years or more (if any such reader exists) might remember an array of posts I wrote in 2004 regarding a “cyberdissident221; Liu Di, who posted pro-democracy essays on the Internet under the moniker Stainless Steel Mouse. Posts like this or this, and several more. She also participated in study groups that discussed freedom and government reform, and saw herself and her colleagues arrested. I remember how angry I felt when another cyberdissident who lobbied for her release was himself arrested. Still, she has never been silenced. Even as recently as last month she was taken into custody for participating in a seminar about June 4th. A reader brought to my attention the availability of three of Liu Di’s n...more

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  • The Gulf blog

    British national interest in the Gulf: rediscovering a role?

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  • All Roads Lead to China

    What Do China’s Millennials Want ?

    For a number of years, I had it pretty good.  I had a number of teams that were under me, were stable, and were producing.  It was at a time when a lot of questions were being asked about the post 80s generation in China, but for whatever reason I was immune. But, those days are over, and just yesterday I had another millennial go AWOL on me.  So, it was perhaps interesting timing that CNBC put up the article Millennials may be more like boomers than we realize highlighting how several studies point to a generation that is looking for meaning in their job, in their company, and for balance: A new study from Deloitte also found differences in workplace attitudes between millennials and older generations, saying that the former “want to work for organizations tha...more

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  • Patrick Chovanec

    Twins!

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  • ChinaBizGov

    China's Green Car Sales in 2012

    Just a few years ago, pretty much everyone (except Chinese auto industry insiders whom I interviewed) thought China was about to take ownership of the global green car market. (Here's just one example from the excitable Tom Friedman of the New York Times.)In 2009 China's industrial planners announced plans to have 500,000 green cars ("New Energy Vehicles" or "新能源汽车" -- a combination of electrics and hybrids) on Chinese roads by the end of 2011. That obviously didn't happen, so last year, that same target of 500,000 was pushed out to 2015.So how did green car sales fare in 2012? Overall, hybrids plus electrics grew a respectable 52 percent.So while sales grew pretty well in percentage terms, it is clear that overall numbers are still inconsequential when you co...more

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  • Patrick Chovanec

    What Causes Revolutions?

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  • Patrick Chovanec

    Enter the New Year

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  • ChinaBizGov

    Comparing Corruption in China and the US

    Today's WSJ China Realtime reports on a study by a George Mason University economist who attempts to compare corruption in the US and China.  His conclusion is that corruption in America's Gilded Age (1877-1893)* was worse than corruption in China today.Perhaps the conclusion is correct, but the methodology used by this professor is flawed.  US corruption is measured by mentions of corruption in US newspapers 1870-1930.  China corruption is measured by mentions of corruption in US (not Chinese!) newspapers 1990-2011.So he is measuring corruption in two countries by the number of times the newspapers of only one of the countries mentions the word.  Even if the researcher had used Chinese newspapers, the study still would have been flawed due to Commun...more

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  • ChinaBizGov

    GM and SAIC: Trouble in Paradise?

    General Motors (GM) and Shanghai Auto (SAIC) announced in December of 2009 that they were deepening their partnership beyond their joint venture in China.  Together they created a 50:50 joint venture, registered in Hong Kong, for expansion outside of China.  Now that partnership appears to be coming apart.Initially, the plan for the HK JV was for the two sides to work together in India and possibly elsewhere in the future.  (For further insight into this particular deal, please see Chapter 4 of Designated Drivers.) As for the India venture, GM would contribute two existing factories in India, along with its Chevrolet brand, and SAIC would contribute cash -- something that GM had been seriously lacking as it had emerged from bankruptcy earlier that same ye...more

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Otaviano Canuto

Otaviano Canuto is Senior Advisor on BRICS Economies in the Development Economics Department, World Bank, a new position established by President Kim to bring a fresh research focus to this increasingly critical area. He also has an extensive academic background, serving as Professor of Economics at the University of Sao Paulo and University of Campinas (UNICAMP) in Brazil.

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