EconoMonitor

Economics Blog Aggregator

    Emerging Markets

  • Private Sector Development - News and views on a competitive private sector and a resilient financial sector

    Foreign Investment Policy: Encouraging news from China

    Link ›

  • Ajay Shah's blog

    Excuses on the Bond-Currency-Derivatives Nexus

    What is the Bond-Currency-Derivatives Nexus The Bond-Currency-Derivatives Nexus is the collection of the following markets: The spot market for government bonds Derivatives on government bonds The spot market for corporate bonds Credit derivatives The spot market for exchange rates Derivatives on exchange rates Complicated products that mix up the above. These sub-components are sometimes viewed as separate pieces. But they are deeply interconnected. Here are some examples of the interconnections: The investor who buys a corporate bond is getting a bundle of credit risk (i.e. the risk that this firm will default on its obligations) and interest rate risk (i.e. the risk that interest rates will go up thus giving a decline in the price of a bond). Different peopl...more

    Link ›

  • Private Sector Development - News and views on a competitive private sector and a resilient financial sector

    'It’s the Trust, Stupid!' The Influence of Non-Quantifiable Factors on Policymaking

    Link ›

  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    A Big Step Forward for Bolstering Financial Inclusion

    Link ›

  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    What’s not to love about free data

    Link ›

  • Private Sector Development - News and views on a competitive private sector and a resilient financial sector

    Mind, Society, and Behavior – and Financial Inclusion

    Link ›

  • Atanu Dey On India's Development

    Republic Day Thoughts on Reading the Constitution

    January 26th, 2015 is the 66th “Republic Day” of India: the Constitution of India came into force on this day in 1950 as the supreme law of the land, replacing the Government of India Act of 1935. I doubt that very many Indians actually know what the Republic Day has to do with the constitution. If you doubt that, ask a few Indians what’s celebrated. To most, it is just a holiday with parades, patriotic songs and the same old politicians pontificating on television. Constitution? Well, we don’t worry about that. But we need to because the constitution matters. In a very strict sense, it is the most important institution that determines the fortunes of the state. It does so by constraining what laws politicians can enact, and therefore constrains...more

    Link ›

  • Zambian Economist

    Lungu takes power, HH concedes defeat

    Edgar Lungu (PF) has won with the margin of around 20,000 - 40,000 or thereabouts according to our projections.  Many of you have already been following our Facebook and Twitter updates where we projected this outcome two days ago..Hakainde Hichilema (UPND) has already conceded defeat in the presidential elections but insists that the elections have been manipulated and stolen from him. He has urged his supporters to remain calm and focus on 2016.Speaking at a press briefing held at Radisson Blu Hotel this morning, HH says he wont contest the elections results ECZ is about to announce shortly. He instead said his energies will be diverted to the 2016 election campaign. Four immediate observations. First, these have actually been the most exciting elections that Zam...more

    Link ›

  • Atanu Dey On India's Development

    A Day of Shame and National Mourning for India

    India will teach us the tolerance and gentleness of mature mind, understanding spirit and a unifying, pacifying love for all human beings. – Will Durant. 1885-1981. American writer, historian, philosopher. The first bit of news I got today through twitter was that Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister of the Islamic State of Pakistan had declared a day of national mourning and ordered the Pakistani flag to be flown at half mast because the king of Saudi Arabia died. Typical, I said to myself. A beggar state like Pakistan has to acknowledge the debt it owes to its benefactor state. Pakistan gets life-support from the Saudis. And support for its death-dealing terrorism that it routinely directs at India. It has to kowtow, beg, grovel, bow and scrape before its masters. ...more

    Link ›

  • Atanu Dey On India's Development

    The most dangerous man to any government

    The most dangerous man, to any government, is the man who is able to think things out for himself, without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost invariably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane and intolerable, and so, if he is romantic, he tries to change it. And if he is not romantic personally, he is apt to spread discontent among those who are. ― HL Mencken And usually these troublemakers are the ones who need to be muzzled through suppression of speech and expression. ...more

    Link ›

  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    Learning to Live with Cheaper Oil in the Middle East

    Link ›

  • The Peking Duck

    Peter Hessler’s China Daily “article”: how low can they go?

    Now this is chutzpah: China Daily asked author Peter Hessler to participate in a Q & A with his friend and translator Li Xueshun comparing aspects of Egypt and China (both countries where Hessler has worked as a New Yorker correspondent). China Daily then had the nerve to take Hessler’s replies and shape them into what looks to the reader like a bylined article by Hessler. Li’s replies were totally removed. From Hessler’s Facebook page: [I]t omitted crucial parts, including the most important point: that I believe it’s harder to make a political change in China, where the system is deeper rooted than in Egypt, and thus the flaws are also more deeply rooted. I said that this is the reason why the current anti-corruption campaign will be a failure...more

    Link ›

  • Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS

    Inverted balance sheets and doubling the financial bet

    On Tuesday the National Bureau of Statistics released China’s 2014 GDP growth numbers and reported growth consistent with what the government has been widely promoting as the “new normal”. According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 63,646.3 billion yuan in 2014, an increase of 7.4 percent at comparable prices. Specifically, the year-on-year growth of the first quarter was 7.4 percent, the second quarter 7.5 percent, the third quarter 7.3 percent, and the fourth quarter 7.3 percent. As nearly every news article has pointed out, GDP growth of 7.4% slightly exceeded consensus expectations of around 7.3%, setting off a flutter in the Shanghai Stock Exchange that reversed nearly a quarter of Monday’s disastrous drop of almo...more

    Link ›

  • Zambian Economist

    Zambia Votes

    The nation went to the polls yesterday. Here is what we know based on the results we have compiled and information from our experts. 1. PF has won decisively in Muchinga, Luapula, Northern, Copperbelt, Lusaka and Eastern provinces.2. UPND has won decisively in Southern Province, Western and North Western. North It has also thrown some not so decisive results e.g. Magoye. 3. PF has captured  large parts of Central province. UPND has performed reasonably well in some parts. This is more on a level. 4. Turn out has ranged 30% - 40%. Turn out appears higher in urban areas than rural areas. For example, Copperbelt it has been around 38%. But in Southern Province very low around 30%.  We are cross checking these turn out rates. 5. Some small part...more

    Link ›

  • Zambian Economist

    Biofuel investment in Kawambwa

    Sunbird Bioenergy Africa is investing US$150 million in the production of ethanol in Kawambwa (Luapula province). Production is expected to commence this year, with capacity of around 120 million litres of ethanol per annum. It is expected that the factory would employ 600 workers. (Source : Times of Zambia)Chief Mukanta has allocated the investor 20,000 hectares of land in the Luena Farm bloc. The factory would be located between Sub-Chief Muyembe and Chief Chitambo. The investor wants to engage 20,000 out-grower farmers who would supply cassava to the factory once it starts production.This is a great development. The only problem is that it may not survive the current global economic winds. Latest empirical work suggests that biofuels make economic sense in Zambia ag...more

    Link ›

  • Ajay Shah's blog

    Good sense on Docomo vs. the rule of law

    by Bhargavi Zaveri and Pratik Datta. The World Bank's Doing Business report downgraded India's ranking from 140 in 2014 to 142 in 2015. This has not disheartened the government, which continues its campaign aimed at attracting interest in India as an investment and business friendly destination. The campaign has started rubbing off to other arms of government. Even RBI. Recently, the Reserve Bank, in a show of investor friendliness, has reportedly shown an inclination to exempt the Japanese investor, Docomo, from the onerous pricing guidelines applicable to foreign investors exiting India. While this may bring much cheer amongst investors, such ad-hoc reactions are dangerous for three reasons: This exemption, if granted, would have legal consequences for Ind...more

    Link ›

  • The Peking Duck

    Is it a police state?

    The best post I ever wrote (and I realize that’s not saying very much) is this one. Its simple point is that underneath a veneer of happiness, prosperity and optimism there can lurk a much darker and more dangerous side. People can be content and appreciate their government while being oblivious — willfully or not — to what it is going on beneath the surface. There have been a rash of articles in recent months of a severe crackdown in China on civil rights lawyers, professors, journalists and activists. A story from yesterday drove this home: As the year came to a close, at least seven prominent Chinese human rights lawyers rang in the New Year from a jail cell. Under President Xi Jinping, 2014 was one of the worst years in recent memory for China’s ...more

    Link ›

  • Ajay Shah's blog

    Call for research proposals on the economics of Indian bankruptcy reform

    link

    Link ›

  • Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS

    Interview on Chinese CPI and PPI data for December

    The National Bureau of Statistics released today CPI and PPI data for December 2014. People’s Daily summarizes the CPI data, which came in pretty close to market expectations: China’s consumer prices grew 2 percent in 2014 from one year earlier, well below the government’s 3.5 percent target set for the year, official data showed on Friday. The increase was also below the 2.6-percent growth registered in 2013. Growth in the consumer price index (CPI), the main gauge of inflation, rebounded to 1.5 percent in December from November’s 1.4-percent rise, its slowest increase since November 2009. On a monthly basis, December’s CPI edged up 0.3 percent against the previous month, reversing a downward trend reported since September. The People’s Dail...more

    Link ›

  • Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS

    My reading of the FT on China’s “turning away from the dollar”

    The Financial Times ran a very interesting article last week called “China: Turning away from the dollar”. It got a lot of attention, at least among China analysts, and I was asked several times by friends and clients for my response. The authors, James Kynge and Josh Noble, begin their article by noting that we are going through significant changes in the institutional structure of global finance: An “age of Chinese capital”, as Deutsche Bank calls it, is dawning, raising the prospect of fundamental changes in the way the world of finance is wired. Not only is capital flowing more freely out of China, the channels and the destinations of that flow are shifting significantly in response to market forces and a master plan in Beijing, several analysts and a senior...more

    Link ›

  • The Peking Duck

    Shaun Rein wants your help marketing The End of Copycat China

    The End of Copycat China is the name of Shaun Rein’s new book that will be available come October 20. I am flattered that Shaun has included me on the mailing list he uses to blast information to his friends and colleagues, and I wanted to draw attention to how he wants his fans to do the marketing for his new book for him. Over the last three months Shaun has sent out two lengthy email blasts and I find their content to be intriguing, and to confirm some of my own thoughts about Mr. Rein. Perhaps most revealing was this paragraph: If you or a friend are looking for a keynote speaker, consider me. If organizations buy 1000 copies of my book to give to attendees between October and December, I will waive my standard speaking rates at my speaker’s bureau (my...more

    Link ›

  • The Gulf blog

    Qatar Just Isn’t That Evil

    Link ›

  • The Gulf blog

    Can Qatar, Saudi Arabia ease tensions at Gulf Cooperation Council?

    Link ›

  • All Roads Lead to China

    Foxconn Moving Direct to Consumer

    I remember having conversations years ago about what Foxconn would do going forward, and whether or not they would be happy as the manufacturer to brands.   The WSJ article, Amid Margin Squeeze, Foxconn Designs Its Own Fate, puts this question to rest. Recently, the $130-billion-a-year in revenue company has ventured into handset accessories under its own brand, and sales and distribution of mobile phones. It also plans to offer telecommunications services in Taiwan. For me, this has always been a bit of a no brainer.  Foxconn has an amazing amount of talent in the firm that is not just managing the supply chain and assembling gadgets for their customer, but have for years also been bringing designs to the brands that they feel would sell well in the market. Partner ...more

    Link ›

  • Frontier Nations

    ANC seen pushing market-friendly economic policy

    Link ›

  • Frontier Nations

    Ethiopia builds on economic momentum

    Link ›

  • Frontier Nations

    North Africa walks job creation tightrope

    Link ›

  • All Roads Lead to China

    Bites of China. Finally a Show Worth Watching!

    A couple of weeks back, while riding the G train back from Nanjing, something caught my eye.  An advertisement by CCTV for what I believe could be one of the best produced shows China has put together.  At first, I had no idea what the advertisement for, but what was clear was that it was celebrating the various food flavors of China, and those who are tilling the fields and preparing the dishes. The show is called Bite of China, and I cannot recommend it enough. Sure, China is known for its fair share of food failures, including recycled oil, but watching this show has restored a bit of my love for the flavors here.  Flavors that were actually the basis for one of my earliest posts, and have provided a never ending hunt for me and my wife as we look to try new thin...more

    Link ›

  • The Gulf blog

    Qatar 2022 teeters towards disaster

    Link ›

  • All Roads Lead to China

    What Do China’s Millennials Want ?

    For a number of years, I had it pretty good.  I had a number of teams that were under me, were stable, and were producing.  It was at a time when a lot of questions were being asked about the post 80s generation in China, but for whatever reason I was immune. But, those days are over, and just yesterday I had another millennial go AWOL on me.  So, it was perhaps interesting timing that CNBC put up the article Millennials may be more like boomers than we realize highlighting how several studies point to a generation that is looking for meaning in their job, in their company, and for balance: A new study from Deloitte also found differences in workplace attitudes between millennials and older generations, saying that the former “want to work for organizations tha...more

    Link ›

  • Patrick Chovanec

    Twins!

    Link ›

  • ChinaBizGov

    China's Green Car Sales in 2012

    Just a few years ago, pretty much everyone (except Chinese auto industry insiders whom I interviewed) thought China was about to take ownership of the global green car market. (Here's just one example from the excitable Tom Friedman of the New York Times.)In 2009 China's industrial planners announced plans to have 500,000 green cars ("New Energy Vehicles" or "新能源汽车" -- a combination of electrics and hybrids) on Chinese roads by the end of 2011. That obviously didn't happen, so last year, that same target of 500,000 was pushed out to 2015.So how did green car sales fare in 2012? Overall, hybrids plus electrics grew a respectable 52 percent.So while sales grew pretty well in percentage terms, it is clear that overall numbers are still inconsequential when you co...more

    Link ›

  • Patrick Chovanec

    What Causes Revolutions?

    Link ›

  • Patrick Chovanec

    Enter the New Year

    Link ›

  • ChinaBizGov

    Comparing Corruption in China and the US

    Today's WSJ China Realtime reports on a study by a George Mason University economist who attempts to compare corruption in the US and China.  His conclusion is that corruption in America's Gilded Age (1877-1893)* was worse than corruption in China today.Perhaps the conclusion is correct, but the methodology used by this professor is flawed.  US corruption is measured by mentions of corruption in US newspapers 1870-1930.  China corruption is measured by mentions of corruption in US (not Chinese!) newspapers 1990-2011.So he is measuring corruption in two countries by the number of times the newspapers of only one of the countries mentions the word.  Even if the researcher had used Chinese newspapers, the study still would have been flawed due to Commun...more

    Link ›

  • ChinaBizGov

    GM and SAIC: Trouble in Paradise?

    General Motors (GM) and Shanghai Auto (SAIC) announced in December of 2009 that they were deepening their partnership beyond their joint venture in China.  Together they created a 50:50 joint venture, registered in Hong Kong, for expansion outside of China.  Now that partnership appears to be coming apart.Initially, the plan for the HK JV was for the two sides to work together in India and possibly elsewhere in the future.  (For further insight into this particular deal, please see Chapter 4 of Designated Drivers.) As for the India venture, GM would contribute two existing factories in India, along with its Chevrolet brand, and SAIC would contribute cash -- something that GM had been seriously lacking as it had emerged from bankruptcy earlier that same ye...more

    Link ›


Most Read | Featured | Popular

Blogger Spotlight

Håvard Halland Håvard Halland

PHåvard Halland is a natural resource economist at the World Bank, where he leads research and policy agendas in the fields of resource-backed infrastructure finance, sovereign wealth fund policy, extractive industries revenue management, and public financial management for the extractive industries sector. Prior to joining the World Bank, he was a delegate and program manager for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Colombia. He earned a PhD in economics from the University of Cambridge.