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  • naked capitalism

    Links 4/23/14

    Apologies for the absence of my own posts. I even had to turn down BBC Radio (one of their biggest shows). This is a dreadful week for me because we have to get a filing in on the CalPERS litigation. Even though I have a very able team getting a handle on what they have and haven’t provided, the data is in lousy shape. For instance, numerous variant renderings of the same fund name means that even simple exercises like trying to tally the number of fund names are not simple. As a result, I’m having to do a lot of coordination and supervision to make sure the process and results are sound. I will hopefully be closer to normal programming by Friday AM. If you are in New York City, be sure to drop by our meetup this Friday, from 5:00 to 8:00 PM at Sláinte at...more

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  • naked capitalism

    Ilargi: What is the Earth Worth (6 Years Later)?

    Yves here. This is a day-late Earth Day post, but the proper stewardship of this planet is a 365-day-a-year duty. Ilargi focuses on one of my pet issues, that too many of the remedies for climate change (and environmental protection generally) rely on the illusion of new technology eliminating or blunting lifestyle changes. But in most cases, this way out is illusory. It takes decades for major new technologies to be adopted widely, and we don’t have that kind of runway as far as greenhouse gases are concerned. Second, many green technology fixes merely squeeze the balloon in one place and shift the problem elsewhere. For instance, many of the solutions to water scarcity, like desalination, require energy and also produce residues that need to be disposed of. Thus...more

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  • naked capitalism

    Pettis: 11 Reasons China Can’t Escape from Its Debt Overhang

    Yves here. A certain amount of complacency has set in about China’s unsustainable economic model, simply because the Middle Kingdom has managed to stay a day of reckoning. I remember similar doubt fatigue setting in during the blowoff phase of the dot-com bubble. Even with more worrying sightings, such as distress in wealth management products (the riskiest part of China’s shadow banking system), many of the bearish sorts believe that China has enough control over its economy that it will engineer a soft landing. Yet it’s hard to ignore stories like these: My last trip to Shanghai and surrounding cities and my earlier trip in November was eye opening. A couple of years before I was in Shenzhen China vising a PC Board manufacturer to discuss $160,000 in...more

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Human capital and income inequality

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  • The Irish Economy

    The Power of Inaction: Bank Bailouts in Comparison

    In this new book, Cornelia Woll examines the political economy of bank bailouts in a variety of countries; it includes a comparison of Ireland versus Denmark.  More details here.

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    A European mobility assistance scheme

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Persistent noise trading and market meltdowns

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  • The Irish Economy

    Evidence on the likely impact of the patent cliff

    NUIM’s Chris Van Egeraat has posted some recently presented work responding to this Department of Finance working paper (.pdf) on the patent cliff, first brought to my attention, anyway, on this blog by Frank Barry. Chris looks carefully at the actual products coming off patent and finds only one, Nameda, which is big enough to cause a wobble. As he notes, the amount of information is pretty poor in this area, so caveats remain. ...more

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Firmly Anchored Expectations, No Postponement of Purchases?

    This article from former European Central Bank board member Jürgen Stark (Doomsayers risk a self-fulfilling prophecy) has been occasioning a lot of commentary over the last week or so. According to Stark, the current deflation debate “lacks three important points: an in-depth analysis of the forces driving inflation down; a clear distinction between “benign disinflation” and “bad deflation”, with a spiral of decreasing prices, wages and output triggered by negative expectations; and a better understanding of the European Central Bank’s approach”. Perhaps the most cited extract is the following: “It is likely we are living in an extended period of price stability. This is good news. It boosts real disposable income and will eventually support...more

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    Union blues: Would an independent Scotland honour her debts?

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  • The Irish Economy

    What the bankers knew on the night of the guarantee

    Readers will definitely be interested in this piece by Tom Lyons on what the Ireland’s top bankers (and Indecon’s Alan Gray) knew, chiefly about the state of Anglo Irish Bank, in the run up to the crisis. There is at least one record of the events of the night as set down by Dermot Gleeson. The (reported) state of knowledge is pretty much the same: No one knew how deeply damaged Anglo’s balance sheets were, or could be; Much of the focus was on restoring confidence in the system, with everyone talking in terms of liquidity rather than solvency issues, and in terms of preventing a run on the banks. Despite this invaluable reporting by Tom Lyons one wonders why it took 2029 days to put these accounts into the public sphere. Brian Cowen was right when h...more

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    It’s not like this was a surprise

    Or, why reading David Remnick is nearly always a good idea: I spoke with Georgy Kasianov, the head of the Academy of Science’s department of contemporary Ukrainian history and politics, in Kiev. “It’s a war,” he said. “The Russian troops are quite openly out on the streets [in Crimea], capturing public buildings and military outposts. And it’s likely all a part of a larger plan for other places: Odessa, Nikolayev, Kherson. And they’ll use the same technique. Some Russian-speaking citizens will appear, put up a Russian flag, and make appeals that they want help and referendums, and so on.” This is already happening in Donetsk and Kharkov. “They are doing this like it is a commonplace,” Kasianov went on. “I can’t speak for four million people, but ...more

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    Intervista sul Lavoro

    Intervista con Valeria Manieri a Radio Radicale su Lavoro, Produttività, Contrattazione  e Salari, con Thomas ManfrediTweets by @pmanasse !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+"://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); ...more

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Overtaken by events

    The draft blog post said to watch out for funny business in Melitopol and Mariupol, Ukraine. Those are the largest settlements along the coast between Russia and the Crimean peninsula, and sit astride the road that runs from Rostov-on-the-Don and the Crimea. Mariupol is the second-largest city in the Donetsk region, with a population of nearly half a million. Melitopol is also a crossroads: east to Russia, south to the Crimea, north to Zaporizhia and west to Kherson. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s daily summary noted: By early evening there were reports of skirmishes between pro-Russia and pro-Ukraine groups in Kharkiv, a tense standoff in Zaporizhia, and the occupation by pro-Russian activists of local government buildings in Makiyivka and Mariupol. Pro-Russia...more

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    Plenty of lessons for France in Britain's recovery

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    Britain's balance of payments sinks in a sea of red ink

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    Salari e Produttività: Italy vs Germany

    E' uscito l'ebook di Linkiesta con Thomas Manfredi !Tweets by @pmanasse !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+"://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); ...more

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    Bologna Faces

    qui Tweets by @pmanasse !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+"://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); ...more

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Dan Steinbock

Dr Dan Steinbock is a recognized expert of the multipolar world. He focuses on international business, international relations, investment and risk among the major advanced economies (G7) and large emerging economies (BRICS and beyond). In addition to his advisory activities (www.differencegroup.net), he is affiliated with major US universities as well as international think-tanks, such as India China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and EU Center (Singapore).

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