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  • naked capitalism

    Ilargi: 40% of Eurozone Banks Are In Bad Shape

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    The ECB as lender of last resort?

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  • naked capitalism

    2:00PM Water Cooler 10/22/14

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  • naked capitalism

    Matt Stoller: Why Is Alan Greenspan’s Lawyer, Scott Alvarez, Still Controlling the Federal Reserve? (AIG Bailout Trial)

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Forward guidance: Human plans and divine laughter

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  • The Irish Economy

    “Have We Learnt Anything from the Crisis?”

    The Bank of Latvia organised a conference on this topic last Friday: materials here. The speeches by Coeure and Weidmann on the euro area are quite interesting;  I can recommend the presentations on Greece;  there were presentations on Ireland by myself and Craig Beaumont.     ...more

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Sovereign-debt relief and its aftermath: The 1930s, the 1990s, the future?

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  • The Irish Economy

    Austerity Talk at Battle of Ideas in London

    The ‘Battle of Ideas’ festival held at the Barbican in London last weekend included a panel session entitled ‘Piigs can’t fly: Democracy/Technocracy/Austerity’. I was invited to make a 7-minute presentation of my views as expressed at various crisis conferences over the years: Back in 1986, long before most people imagined that the single currency would really come into being, Paul Krugman wrote of the potential fiscal co-ordination problem: a bias towards excessive restriction because each country ignores the impact of its actions on the exports of others. “Achieving co-ordination of fiscal policies is probably even harder politically than co-ordination of monetary policies. There is not even temporarily a natural central player whose actions can solve the ...more

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Does The Secular Stagnation Theory Have Any Sort of Validity?

    In a number of blog-posts (Paul Krugman’s Bicycling Problem, On Bubble Business Bound, The Expectations Fairy) I have examined some of the implications of the theory of secular stagnation. But I haven’t up to now argued why I think the hypothesis that Japan and some parts of Europe are suffering from some kind of secular stagnation could well be a valid one. Strangely, while I would suggest the most obviously affected countries are those mentioned above, most of the debate has centered around the US economy. Since it is not at all clear that the US economy is actually suffering from either a liquidity trap or secular stagnation at this point, this has lead many to question whether the idea might not be ill-founded. The Economist, for example, in a revue arti...more

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    Bank may eventually rue leaving rates low for too long

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Open Letter to the Economist on Catalonia – J’accuse

    Those who have interest in neither Catalonia nor the issue of journalistic standards will probably find this posting long, tedious, and not especially interesting. Perhaps you might like to stop at this point. Those of you who are interested in one or other of these, well, I invite you to read on…..  To The Editors Of The Economist I am writing this missive addressed to you as I am outraged, nay scandalized, by the level of your reporting on the Catalan question. The source of my discontent are two recent pieces – both signed by one GT – the first of which appeared on the Charlemagne Blog (Getting to “sí”, 19 September 2014), while the second was published under the rubric The Economist Explains (Catalonia’s independence movement,14 Octobe...more

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    Legge di Stabilità: il Mistero dei 18 Miliardi

    Non sono riuscito a trovare la bozza della legge di stabilità in discussione, ma da quanto riportato dalla stampa (le famose slides del primo ministro)  ad esempio dal Sole 24, emerge un quadro diverso da quello che compare nei titoli (meno 18 miliardi di imposte, tagli di spesa per 15 miliardi).La riduzione di imposte sarebbe di 11,7 miliardi, non di 18, perchè le minori entrate dalle imposte sul reddito (80 euro), gli sgravi su IRAP e su contributi sociali per le assunzioni a tempo indeterminato sono in parte compensate da maggiori imposte sulle "rendite finanziarie" (non saranno tassati i titoli di Stato),e da una ottimistica stima di recupero di base imponibile derivante dalla lotta all'evasione (sempre maggiori entrate sono).Meno dettagliate  sono le in...more

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    Monetary Policy Mistakes

    Nice graph from roubini.com  on rather bizarre policy rate adjustments....Tweets by @pmanasse !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+"://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); ...more

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  • The Irish Economy

    Budget 2015

    There’s plenty to discuss from yesterday’s announcements but any OP is not likely to be followed by related comments. All the relevant documents from the Department of Finance are here. This is a summary of the aggregate budgetary changes (in €million). Here are two vintages of the debt interest table.  First from the April 2013 SPU. And this from yesterday’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook: There are lots of opinions I’m sure on how this (temporary?)  improvement was used. ...more

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Eurocrisis Round Two, Blame the Germans Edition

    “What strikes me, also, is the extent of intellectual confusion that remains.” – Paul Krugman, Europanic 2.0 “The problem is that Germany has continued to maintain highly competitive labor costs and run huge surpluses since the bubble burst — and that in a depressed world economy, this makes Germany a significant part of the problem.” – Paul Krugman, German Surpluses: This Time Is Different According to one fairly widespread (and recently much in vogue) theory about the Euro crisis, Germany bears a large part of the responsibility for the current mess. The view is met with a variety of responses inside the country, ranging from horror to amazement. Naturally, if the argument were simply about the way Angela Merkel has handled the crisis – no...more

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    Time to join the dots on infrastructure spending

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    TFR in busta paga?

    La proposta di anticipare il TFR (trattamento di fine rapporto) nella busta paga al fine di stimolare i consumi mi lascia molto perplesso.Si tratta di spostare redditi dal futuro al presente e sappiamo che questo fatto accresce i consumi solamente per quelle famiglie che vorrebbero indebitarsi per consumare  ma non hanno accesso al mercato del credito. Per loro, il TFR costituirebbe un prestito dello stato ad un tasso agevolato (il rendimento del TFR è del 1.5 più il 75% dell'inflazione), più basso ad esempio del tasso sul prestiti al consumo. Per le altre famiglie, un aumento della busta paga ottenuto trasferendo il TFR dal futuro al presente sarebbe risparmiato per ricostituire il piano di spesa desiderato. Ai tassi attivi attuali, vicino allo zero, molte dell...more

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    Don't forget the budget deficit's ugly sister

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