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  • naked capitalism

    New Zealand: How Crooks’ Buddies at WhaleOil Bounced Out the Chief of the Serious Fraud Office, and More

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  • naked capitalism

    2:00PM Water Cooler 9/2/14

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  • naked capitalism

    2-for-1 Links Split

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  • The Irish Economy

    On the Hook for Impaired Bank Lending: Do Sovereign-Bank Interlinkages Affect the Net Cost of a Fiscal Stimulus?

    The new issue of the International Journal of Central Banking includes this article by Robert Kelly and Kieran McQuinn – here.

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Minority mortgage market experiences leading up to and during the Financial Crisis

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    The impact of capital requirements on bank lending

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  • The Irish Economy

    Deflation Once Again

    The media faithfully reported Eurostat’s flash estimate of yoy inflation in the Eurozone at 0.3% for August on Friday last. The yoy rate says merely that prices were 0.3% higher in August than they had been twelve months previously. Just two pieces of information are employed – today’s number and the number twelve months earlier. The intervening eleven pieces of info are ignored. What do these eleven observations have to say? Well it is not pretty. The index was unchanged over eight months, and actually fell over four months. The country-by-country numbers are only available for July. Here is what happened over the four months from March. HICP July % Change over March Belgium         -1.5                  Germany       +0...more

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  • The Irish Economy

    More on Germany

    The economic challenges facing Germany are reported in this FT Analysis article.

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Migration and welfare in the US and Europe

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    Et Voilà La Déflation ! (en francais)

    La déflation nouvelle est arriveé ! Comme on avéz prévuTweets by @pmanasse !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+"://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); ...more

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    French lessons in how not to run an economy

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    IEA's shadow MPC votes 6-3 for rate hike

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    What Is The Risk The Euro Crisis Will Reignite?

    The euro zone crisis is not back — at least not yet. Recent movements in global markets following concerns about Portugal’s Banco Espirito Santo really had as much to do with market nerves after a long spell of repressed volatility as it did with the state of the bank’s balance sheet. Despite the current calm, everyone knows that volatility will return one day, and no one wants to be caught on the back foot when it does arrive. So the initial response is to hit the “sell” button and then ask questions. Beyond this context, there is a lack of certainty in the market about which way bond yields for the so-called “peripheral” euro zone countries are heading in the near term — and what exactly the risks associated with holding them really are. R...more

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    EU Deficit Limits, Infrastructure Investments and Growth

    Here is a useful reading from Andrew Warner of the  IMF , for those who think that the only way to get back to growth is to soften EU deficit limits and boost public infrastructure investments .By the way, has anyone estimated the growth effects of the Italian TAV (High Speed Train) in Piedmont's Susa Valley ?Tweets by @pmanasse !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+"://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); ...more

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    The Italian Runaway Train

    There has been lot’s of debate in the press and in academic circles over the last week or so about whether Italy’s latest contraction constitutes a triple dip recession or simply a continuation of what’s been going on over many many years. This is an interesting theoretical nicety, but in fact what is happening in Italy at the moment goes a lot further than problems faced by a recession dating committee. The real issue that arises in the context of the Euro Area at the moment is a far more specific one. Will the ECB do QE? And if it does when will it push the button? And what could happen if it doesn’t. Perhaps a case study of the Italian case is worth the effort here. What is likely to happen to Italian debt if there is no ECB intervention soon?...more

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    Baby-boomers take some of the rap for falling pay

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Abenomics – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

    If this week’s economics news is positive then that is good.  But if it’s bad then that’s even better, since there is more potential for it to improve next week, and if it doesn’t, well that’s doubly better since there will be  even more reason for central banks to step in and push up asset prices. Maybe all this sounds peculiar, even perverse, but it would seem to be how many people working in financial markets are reasoning these days. In an article entitled “Why Japan’s GDP Plunge Isn’t As Bad As It Seems”, Bloomberg writer Bruce Einhorn put it like this: The last time Japan raised the consumption tax, in 1997, the economy went into a tailspin. The impact doesn’t seem to be as bad this time, though. ...more

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    The Curse of Low Interest Rates

    Low nominal interest on government bonds  are good news, in that they slow down the dynamics of public debt and encorage spending.Thus the recent auction of one-year government bonds (BOT) where the Italian Treasury was able to sell 7 billion worth of paper at a yield of  0.279%, down from the previous record low of 0.387%, and where the demand was twice the amount on offer, is an encouraging sign for the government.Yet the real expected  interest rate is much higher, given that expected inflation is negative (around -1.5%) This, together with flat disposable income and households' borrowing constraints, is holding back consumption and demand.The risk of the positive auction is to encourage further leniency of the government in carrying out the required e...more

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