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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    Eurozone starts to look a lot like Japan

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    What drives micro and macro volatility?

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  • The Irish Economy

    Question on measuring foreign risk capital inflows during the Irish financial sector recovery

    One of the key drivers behind the better-than-expected recovery of the Irish financial sector has been the strong inflow of foreign risk capital, particularly from U.S. “vulture funds” as they are inaptly named. This healthy demand for Irish banking assets has allowed the PCAR and PLAR plans for the domestic banks, and the unwinding of NAMA, to progress successfully. Similarly healthy demand for the Irish assets of foreign banks, such as Irish loan portfolios sold by Ulster Bank, has also contributed indirectly to the Irish financial sector’s partial recovery. There is a risk capital inflow when a foreign institution buys a troubled loan portfolio or property portfolio from an Irish bank, or from an Irish subsidiary of a foreign bank, or from Nama. These risk capi...more

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  • The Irish Economy

    60th Economic Policy Panel

    The Economic Policy Panel took place over the last couple of days  – the draft papers are here.  Topics included the impact of fiscal austerity; the role of migration in adjustment; and estimates of the impact of the TTIP. ...more

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  • naked capitalism

    Links 10/25/14

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  • naked capitalism

    Adair Turner: The Consequences of Money-Manager Capitalism

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  • naked capitalism

    Jamie Dimon: U.S. Must Create a “Safe Harbor” Where JPM’s Corruption Is Not “Punished”

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Monetary policy and inequality in the US

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Confidence to spend

    This slide is from Mario Draghi’s presentation to the European Union council today. As the caption states, he says it shows that investment is suffering from a lack of confidence. But it perhaps more clearly shows that private investment has suffered as public investment has been slashed. And public investment is nothing to do with mercurial confidence — it’s something governments control! A “you first” approach to investment is not going to get us very far. ...more

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  • The Irish Economy

    The Guarantee

    The Irish Times preview the film with the screenplay writer Colin Murphy and producer John Kelleher here.  There is also a short clip from the movie to whet the appetite. ; Having seen the Fishamble stage production of  Guaranteed! last year I am looking forward to the film version which goes on limited release next week.  They probably took some artistic license with the adaption but hopefully not too much. ...more

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Macroeconomic policy mix in the transatlantic economy

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Does The Secular Stagnation Theory Have Any Sort of Validity?

    In a number of blog-posts (Paul Krugman’s Bicycling Problem, On Bubble Business Bound, The Expectations Fairy) I have examined some of the implications of the theory of secular stagnation. But I haven’t up to now argued why I think the hypothesis that Japan and some parts of Europe are suffering from some kind of secular stagnation could well be a valid one. Strangely, while I would suggest the most obviously affected countries are those mentioned above, most of the debate has centered around the US economy. Since it is not at all clear that the US economy is actually suffering from either a liquidity trap or secular stagnation at this point, this has lead many to question whether the idea might not be ill-founded. The Economist, for example, in a revue arti...more

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    Bank may eventually rue leaving rates low for too long

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Open Letter to the Economist on Catalonia – J’accuse

    Those who have interest in neither Catalonia nor the issue of journalistic standards will probably find this posting long, tedious, and not especially interesting. Perhaps you might like to stop at this point. Those of you who are interested in one or other of these, well, I invite you to read on…..  To The Editors Of The Economist I am writing this missive addressed to you as I am outraged, nay scandalized, by the level of your reporting on the Catalan question. The source of my discontent are two recent pieces – both signed by one GT – the first of which appeared on the Charlemagne Blog (Getting to “sí”, 19 September 2014), while the second was published under the rubric The Economist Explains (Catalonia’s independence movement,14 Octobe...more

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    Legge di Stabilità: il Mistero dei 18 Miliardi

    Non sono riuscito a trovare la bozza della legge di stabilità in discussione, ma da quanto riportato dalla stampa (le famose slides del primo ministro)  ad esempio dal Sole 24, emerge un quadro diverso da quello che compare nei titoli (meno 18 miliardi di imposte, tagli di spesa per 15 miliardi).La riduzione di imposte sarebbe di 11,7 miliardi, non di 18, perchè le minori entrate dalle imposte sul reddito (80 euro), gli sgravi su IRAP e su contributi sociali per le assunzioni a tempo indeterminato sono in parte compensate da maggiori imposte sulle "rendite finanziarie" (non saranno tassati i titoli di Stato),e da una ottimistica stima di recupero di base imponibile derivante dalla lotta all'evasione (sempre maggiori entrate sono).Meno dettagliate  sono le in...more

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    Monetary Policy Mistakes

    Nice graph from roubini.com  on rather bizarre policy rate adjustments....Tweets by @pmanasse !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+"://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); ...more

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    Time to join the dots on infrastructure spending

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    TFR in busta paga?

    La proposta di anticipare il TFR (trattamento di fine rapporto) nella busta paga al fine di stimolare i consumi mi lascia molto perplesso.Si tratta di spostare redditi dal futuro al presente e sappiamo che questo fatto accresce i consumi solamente per quelle famiglie che vorrebbero indebitarsi per consumare  ma non hanno accesso al mercato del credito. Per loro, il TFR costituirebbe un prestito dello stato ad un tasso agevolato (il rendimento del TFR è del 1.5 più il 75% dell'inflazione), più basso ad esempio del tasso sul prestiti al consumo. Per le altre famiglie, un aumento della busta paga ottenuto trasferendo il TFR dal futuro al presente sarebbe risparmiato per ricostituire il piano di spesa desiderato. Ai tassi attivi attuali, vicino allo zero, molte dell...more

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