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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    The world struggles when the trade winds don't blow

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  • naked capitalism

    Links 8/30/15

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  • naked capitalism

    CalPERS’ Private Equity, Exposed: Executive Summary

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  • naked capitalism

    Perry Mehrling: Defending the RMB

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Bad behaviour and early school leaving

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    It’s not just the currency

    Paul Krugman writing in June 2012 on the UK-Spain interest differential, attributing it to the constraints of currency union - Then there’s the lender of last resort issue, which turns out to be broader than even those who knew their Bagehot realized. Credit for focusing on this issue goes to Paul DeGrauwe, who pointed out that national central banks are potentially crucial lenders of last resort to governments as well as private financial institutions. The British government basically can’t face a “rollover” crisis in which bond buyers refuse to purchase its debt, because the Bank of England can always step in as financier of last resort. The government of Spain, however, can face such a crisis – and there is always the risk that fears of such a crisis, leadi...more

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Economic prosperity breeds trust

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  • The Irish Economy

    Controlling the Health budget: Annual budget implementation in the public health area

    IFAC have a new analytical note on this topic: here.

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  • The Irish Economy

    Insider or Outsider? Bloomberg article on Honohan succession

    There is a brief article in Bloomberg Business today about the search for a new Irish Central Bank governor. “Ireland is about to deliver evidence on whether, nearly two years after regaining its economic sovereignty, much has really changed. ……   Noonan’s dilemma now is whether to move back to the pre-crisis mode of finding a governor from inside the civil service, or repeat the Honohan recipe and appoint another outsider.” The Paddy Power betting odds are discussed. As a financial economist, I am forbidden by the Efficient Market Theory from making gambling bets, but perhaps some of the labour/macro economists might want to take a punt. I had an earlier post on the strategic issues around this appointment. The recent China-related volatil...more

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Competition alone will not eliminate discrimination

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  • The Irish Economy

    China: Growth and Debt (Geneva Report on Deleveraging)

    The China section in the 2014 Geneva Report provides some guidance in relation to the current debate – here. See also NYT article here.

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    QE or not QE? A slippery slope to breaking the Bank

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    Productivity lift-off will keep pushing up pay

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Burden sharing

    Eurogroup statement on Greece – Once approved, the full re-engagement of the IMF is expected to reduce subsequently the ESM financing envelope accordingly. Is the Eurozone generally so transparent that the reason to have the IMF on board is to lesson the amount that a group of the world’s richest countries have to put on the table to sustain one of their own?   ...more

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    China's Yuan: surprise surprise !

    True, the Yuan's depreciation  in the last 3 days, about 3.3% , is a big change since the policy of peg to the US dollar adopted by the Bank of China around 2005. But is it really a surprise? A quick look at the graph below, which depicts the chinese current account surplus as a percentage of GDP (blue line, left scale) and the real effective exchange rate (red line, right scale, up=appreciation) reveals that, since 2008, the Yuan appreciated massively, by about 25%,  and the current accout fell dramatically,  by about 7 point of GDP. The real surprise is that markets were surprised about the Yuan depreciation! The other surprise is that, so far , the Yuan has depreciated so little-so late! Tweets by @pmanasse !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByT...more

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Growth is a driver of migration. Get used to it.

    A seriously important blog post. Migration is a problem of success, not failure. As sub-Saharan Africa increasingly rises out of deep poverty, more people can afford to emigrate and are aware that life might be better somewhere else. The propensity to migrate is positively correlated with real per-capita GDP. In Latin America, however, the correlation is negative. Potential migrants are likely to be better off at home, except the poorest of the poor. The conclusions we can draw from this are salutary. First of all, they’re not going away. The development train has left the station, and one of its effects is that migration has become an option. Perhaps the pressure will reduce as more countries reach the middle-income level, but it’s not as if there arenR...more

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    On the 50 billion Greek Fund from Privatisations

    It seems we are back to the 2011 Papandreu's  implausible estimates from privatizations. Here is my take from Jan 2014. Tweets by @pmanasse !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+"://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); ...more

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    Tsipras and the Transitive Property

    During his speech at the European Parliament today, Prime Minister Tsipras, exposed a common argument heard very often from his national and international supporters: he accused the international creditors of the fact  that their loans only served to payback (German and French) banks, rather than help the Greek people. (“The money that was given to Greece never went to the people,...the money was given to save Greek and European banks.”)Now, as a matter of logic, consider the panel below. On the left, Greece borrows from "Europe" (Tax payers of EU, ECB plus IMF) and, eventually,   pays back much lower an amount. The difference in present value is a transfer from "EU" to Greece.  On the right panel, Greece borrows from private (German and French)...more

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Aaron Menenberg is Foreign Policy and Energy analyst, and a Future Leader with Foreign Policy Initiative. He also co-hosts Podlitical Risk (@podliticalrisk). He is a graduate student in international relations at The Maxwell School of Syracuse University. Previously he has worked at Praescient Analytics, The Hudson Institute, for the Israeli Ministry of Defense, and at the IBM Corporation. The views expressed are his own, and you can follow him on Twitter @AaronMenenberg. He welcomes questions and comments at menenbergaaron@gmail.com.