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  • naked capitalism

    2:00PM Water Cooler 3/27/15

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Is Finland’s Economy Suffering From Secular Stagnation?

    “After the Great Depression, secular stagnation turned out to be a figment of economists’ imaginations……..it is still too soon to tell if this will also be the case after the Great Recession. However, the risks of secular stagnation are much greater in depressed Eurozone economies than in the US, due to less favourable demographics, lower productivity growth, the burden of fiscal consolidation, and the ECB’s strict focus on low inflation.” Nick Crafts – Secular stagnation: US hypochondria, European disease? – In Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, Edited by Coen Teulings and Richard Baldwin  Finland’s economy has been attracting a lot of interest of late. And not for the right reasons, unfortunately. The econ...more

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  • The Irish Economy

    IEA 2015 Conference

    The 29th Annual Irish Economic Association Conference will be held at the Institute of Banking, IFSC, 1 North Wall Quay, Dublin 1 on Thursday May 7th and Friday May 8th, 2015. The ESR guest lecture will be given by Professor Christopher Udry (Yale University) and the Edgeworth Lecture by Professor Giancarlo Corsetti (University of Cambridge). This year we have a very strong and expanded programme. Registration for the conference is through the exordo site. Early registration costs 100 euros and includes dinner on the 7th. There is a much lower price for student delegates at 35 euros. Bookings for accommodation should be made directly. We have negotiated some discounted hotel rooms at the Maldron Hotel, Cardiff Lane, which is close to the conference venue (mention the ...more

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  • naked capitalism

    Thoughts About the Trans-Pacific Partnership

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  • naked capitalism

    Links 3/27/15

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Microeconomic origins of macroeconomic tail risks

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    How did the ECB save the Eurozone without spending a single euro?

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  • The Irish Economy

    International Investment Position & External Debt – Q4 2014

    The CSO have published the Q4 2014 update for these data.  As pointed out 12 months ago there is a lot of noise in the figures. Ireland’s gross external debt was estimated to be €1,721.6 billion at the end of 2014.  On the other side of the ledger there are €2,623.8 billion of external assets in debt instruments.  This means we have a net position of -€902.2bn, i.e. assets exceed liabilities.  Of course, these figures are close to meaningless in any real sense as they are polluted by financial services sector. Under the heading “IFSC” the CSO records total foreign assets of €2,757.5 billion and total foreign liabilities of €2,790.4 billion.  The gross totals are immense but the net position is small by comparison.  Here are ...more

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Cancer drug prices rise with no end in sight

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  • The Irish Economy

    When is macroprudential policy effective?

    BIS paper here. Abstract: Previous studies have shown that limits on loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-to-income (DTI) ratios can stabilise the housing market, and that tightening these limits tends to be more effective than loosening them. This paper examines whether the relative effectiveness of tightening vs. loosening macroprudential measures depends on where in the housing cycle they are implemented. I find that tightening measures have greater effects when credit is expanding quickly and when house prices are high relative to income. Loosening measures seem to have smaller effects than tightening, but the difference is negligible in downturns. Loosening being found to have small effects is consistent with where it occurs in the cycle. ...more

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    The Greek Saga and Redemptions

    The next two weeks are going to be crucial for the Greek saga. The  Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports that the Greek government has about until the first week of April before running out of cash. Assuming this is  true, a deal on reforms will have to be signed off by then. Debt coming due is going to escalate since April, up to 6 billions in July (graph from "Daily Shot"). So time is running out,  as Tsipras and Merkel meet this week.Tweets by @pmanasse !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+"://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); ...more

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    No roller coaster - but the tail wagged the dog in a curious budget

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    No giveaways - but one or two gimmicks

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    When Will The ECB Start To Taper?

    What matters isn’t what you think should happen, it’s what others think will happen that counts. Funny days these, the world seems to be constantly turning upside down. I could be talking about the arrival of negative interest rates in many European economies, but I’m not. What I have in mind is the crossover that seems to be taking place in the perceived fortunes of the US and the Euro Area economies. At the end of 2014 it was all “Europe bad, USA good” to the point that most observers were expecting an imminent rate rise from  the Federal Reserve, even while the Euro was in such a bad state that ECB was being steadily pushed – kicking and screaming – towards a full blown programme of sovereign bond buying QE. But now, onl...more

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    Osborne: some jam today, will there be less austerity tomorrow?

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    Percapita Income and Religion

    Interesting chart on Religion and Income from Daily Shot Tweets by @pmanasse !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+"://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); ...more

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Why Is Spain’s Population Loss An Economic Problem?

    “Growth theory was invented to provide a systematic way to talk about and to compare equilibrium paths for the economy. In that task it succeeded reasonably well. In doing so, however, it failed to come to grips adequately with an equally important and interesting problem: the right way to deal with deviations from equilibrium growth……..if one looks at substantial more-than-quarterly departures from equilibrium growth……….. it is impossible to believe that the equilibrium growth path itself is unaffected by the short- to medium-run experience…….So a simultaneous analysis of trend and fluctuations really does involve an integration of long-run and short-run, or equilibrium and disequilibrium. “ Robert Solow, Nobel Acceptance Speech When the IMF ...more

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    Conversations about Europe (in Italian)

    A radio radicale ieri con Tonia Mastrobuoni e Valeria Manieri Tweets by @pmanasse !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+"://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); ...more

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Richard Wood Richard Wood

Richard has published papers on wages policy, the taxation of financial arrangements and macroeconomic issues in Pacific island countries. Views expressed in these articles are his own and may not be shared by his employing agency. He is the author of How to Solve the European Economic Crisis: Challenging orthodoxy and creating new policy paradigms