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  • naked capitalism

    2:00PM Water Cooler 11/5/14

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  • naked capitalism

    Who Will Wind Up Holding the Bag in the Shale Gas Bubble?

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  • naked capitalism

    Links 11/25/14

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  • The Irish Economy

    Fiscal Assessment Report, Nov. 2014

    The latest IFAC report is here.

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Productivity, pricing power, and exports

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Labour shares, inequality, and the relative price of capital

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Fair shares in pledged carbon cuts

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Euro-nationalism is still a terrible idea.

    This piece about Catalan #indyref crystallises everything I hate about what I call Euro-nationalism. It’s wonderful that they’re all so engaged: Kilted men wearing saltire capes and foam fingers on both hands danced in the aisles as “The Red Hot Chilli Pipers” played a bagpipe version of Don’t Stop Believing. Sorry. That was the other lot. Let’s try that again. Clara, 20, a university student, is one of nearly fifty thousand volunteers who made Sunday’s vote on Catalan independence possible. I meet her sitting behind a ballot box in a school-turned-polling station in Barcelona, a big smile on her face… But what is it they actually want to do with independence? Well, stop paying into the Spanish government’s finances. What this means...more

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  • The Irish Economy

    Mental Health and Unemployment

    I posted recently on the implications of the emerging literature on the economics of mental health in the Irish context. I am currently working on some projects looking at the role of mental health in life-long economic outcomes. One of the first papers from this project is below. It shows a substantial predictive effect childhood distress throughout childhood and adolescence on later trajectories of unemployment and also evidence that this becomes particularly marked during recessions. Apologies for self-promotion but I would like to flag an event we are running in Stirling on this topic on December 5th for which there are still places if people wish to attend. Also people interested in working on this area as a researcher or PhD student please feel free to get in touc...more

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    Risks aplenty - but the world isn't about to go pop

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  • The Irish Economy

    Post Programme Surveillance

    EC/ECB statement. IMF statement.

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    The EU Fiscal Framework: The Proof of the Pudding

    I have been invited to participate to a round table organized by Bruegel , the Brussels based think-tank, assessing the Fiscal framework in the Eurozone in the present crisis (the complete program is here). In brief, I made the following four points (slides are here).1) Since 2009 there was an unprecedented fiscal consolidation in the EUZ, where the average cyclically adjusted balance improved from -5.4 to -1.1of GDP in 5 years (red line in Fig 1).Yet the aggregate net debt position of the EUZ deteriorated sharply, with the average net debt ratio climbing from 40 to 60 percent of GDP (green line), the economy plunging in a double (possibly triple) dip recession (purple line), and inflation (blue) converging to zero.2) A country-by country disaggregated view makes the p...more

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Abenomics 2.0 – Just What Are They Trying To Achieve?

    The recent move by the Bank of Japan to take further measures to accelerate the rate at which it ramps up its balance sheet took almost everyone – market watchers included – completely by surprise. The consequence was reasonably predictable – the yen has once more fallen strongly against almost all major currencies – and most notably against the USD – and Japan’s main stock indexes are sharply up. On the other side of the balance sheet the cost of imported goods – and especially energy – is expected to rise, real wages are likely to continue to fall, and ex-tax inflation looks set to remain moderate, possibly around 1% – short of the 2% objective but comfortably away from deflation. Meantime this week’s GD...more

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    The Bank conjures up a sweet spot for Osborne

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  • David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

    Bank trims growth and inflation forecasts as wages pick up

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    I saw the wall Mr Gorbachev tore down.

    In October 1989, I was in Berlin for the first time. Small town boy, big city lights. We flew with Pan-Am back then. The airline also doesn’t exist anymore. I caught about the last possible glimpse at the wall in its concrete dividing brutality, looking eastward from the visitor platform at the Brandenburg gate. The next time I experienced a similar feeling was in 2008, on the UN premises in Panmunjom, South Korea, looking north. And in 2012, in the Banksy gift shop, right next to the wall in Bethlehem. West-Berlin was an oasis of calm before the storm. On October 18th, my mother, who hails from East Germany, my sister and I were having lunch at the famous Kaffee Kranzler on the Ku’Damm, at the time West Berlin’s main shopping street. I was facing a bi...more

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    Legge di Stabilità: il Mistero dei 18 Miliardi

    Non sono riuscito a trovare la bozza della legge di stabilità in discussione, ma da quanto riportato dalla stampa (le famose slides del primo ministro)  ad esempio dal Sole 24, emerge un quadro diverso da quello che compare nei titoli (meno 18 miliardi di imposte, tagli di spesa per 15 miliardi).La riduzione di imposte sarebbe di 11,7 miliardi, non di 18, perchè le minori entrate dalle imposte sul reddito (80 euro), gli sgravi su IRAP e su contributi sociali per le assunzioni a tempo indeterminato sono in parte compensate da maggiori imposte sulle "rendite finanziarie" (non saranno tassati i titoli di Stato),e da una ottimistica stima di recupero di base imponibile derivante dalla lotta all'evasione (sempre maggiori entrate sono).Meno dettagliate  sono le in...more

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  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics

    Monetary Policy Mistakes

    Nice graph from roubini.com  on rather bizarre policy rate adjustments....Tweets by @pmanasse !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+"://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); ...more

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Emre Deliveli The Kapali Carsi

Emre Deliveli is a freelance consultant, part-time lecturer in economics and columnist. Previously, Emre worked as economist for Citi Istanbul, covering Turkey and the Balkans. He was previously Director of Economic Studies at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey in Ankara and has has also worked at the World Bank, OECD, McKinsey and the Central Bank of Turkey. Emre holds a B.A., summa cum laude, from Yale University and undertook his PhD studies at Harvard University, in Economics.

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