EconoMonitor

Economics Blog Aggregator

    Finance & Markets

  • naked capitalism

    Putin: Battered, Bruised But Not Broken

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  • The Skeptical Speculator

    Stocks rally but also face risks

    Stock markets mostly rose last week. The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 2.3 percent, led by stocks in the United States and Europe. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 3.4 percent while the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 3.0 percent. Asia underperformed last week, with the MSCI All-Country Asia Pacific Index slipping 0.2 percent. However, the Shanghai Composite Index jumped 5.8 percent to close at a four-year high. While the rally last week left the S&P 500 just 5 points below its all-time high achieved on 5 December, some investors are seeing danger in the sudden rally. A post from the Wall Street Journal's Moneybeat blog over the weekend pointed out that the recent rally may have been the result of fund managers buying stocks to make their funds look good. “If ...more

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  • Calculated Risk

    Monday: Existing Home Sales

    From James Hamilton at Econbrowser: Do falling oil prices raise the threat of deflation?If gasoline prices stay where they are and if we buy the same number of gallons of gasoline this year as last, that leaves us with an additional $160 billion to spend over the course of the year on other items. If we restate the total savings for U.S. consumers and businesses in terms of the 116 million U.S. households, that works out to almost $1400 per household.It’s a particularly big deal for the lower-income households, who spend a much higher fraction of their income on energy.Historically consumers have responded to windfalls like this by becoming more open to the big-ticket purchases that play a huge role in cyclical economic swings.Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, the Chicago Fed...more

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  • AllAboutAlpha: Hedge Fund Trends & Alternative Investment Analysis

    Longevity Risk: Wary of Your 2015, and of Somebody Else’s Life Span?

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  • The Big Picture

    Forest Man

    Since 1979, Jadav Payeng has been planting hundreds of trees on an Indian island threatened by erosion. In this film, photographer Jitu Kalita traverses Payeng’s home—the largest river island in the world—and reveals the touching story of how this modern-day Johnny Appleseed turned an eroding desert into a wondrous oasis. Funded in part by Kickstarter, “Forest Man” was directed by William Douglas McMaster and won Best Documentary for the American Pavilion Emerging Filmmaker Showcase at the Cannes Film Festival in 2014. India Man Plants Forest Bigger Than Central Park to Save His Island See more from the filmmaker. http://polygonwindowproductions.com/ See more photos of the world’s largest river island. http://yourshot.nationalgeographic.com/tags...more

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  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    November 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

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  • Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up

    Shazam! From the Boss to the King to John & Paul (But Not George or Ringo), Not to Mention Jessica & Nick, and Taylor Swift

    2014 Editor’s Note: Well, Michael Bublé’s computer is still releasing holiday songs, which is the worst we can say about this year’s holiday music survey.  The best we can say—and it is truly good news—is that The Boss’s hard-driving, live version of “Santa Claus is Comin’ to Town,” done entirely without computer-aidedBublé-style vocals, seems to be gaining much deserved traction.   Meanwhile, one of our previous also-ran mentions in the What-Did-We-Do-To-Deserve-This? category, one Taylor Swift, deserves a big boo-yah for telling the Spotify algorithms to stuff it, pulling her entire catalogue from the automated listening service—including, by definition, the song mentioned here last year, which should be no trag...more

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Creative accounting is nothing new for the Eurozone

    Frances Coppola blogs on the Austrian government’s crash investigation into the failure of Hypo Alpe-Adria (latest detail – the biggest participant in the run on the bank was its garantor), also known as Haiderbank, and on the related topic of the Juncker Commission’s “investment plan”. The link is that the investment plan relies on a succession of heroic accounting assumptions to bulk up the final number without putting in any, you know, actual munn, and the Austrians’ response to the Haiderbank’s failure was based on a lot of funny figures. Frances so: But what struck me from this report was the sheer naivety of the government officials involved. They were like children playing with fireworks. The instruments they were handlin...more

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  • The Capital Spectator

    US Existing Home Sales: November 2014 Preview

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  • Calculated Risk

    Katie Couric and the Net Petroleum Exporter Myth

    To understand what the general public is hearing about oil, I watched a Yahoo video yesterday with Katie Couric explaining the decline in oil prices.In general the piece was very good. Couric started by explaining that the decline in oil prices could be explained in two words: Supply and Demand.  She discussed reasons for more supply and softening demand.Note: from Professor Hamilton "[In October] I discussed the three main factors in the recent fall in oil prices: (1) signs of a return of Libyan production to historical levels, (2) surging production from the U.S., and (3) growing indications of weakness in the world economy."I'd add to the discussion that the short run supply and demand curves are both very steep for oil, so small changes in supply and / or dema...more

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  • The Big Picture

    Back to Basics

    >   My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at a few basics of investing that many investors get wrong. Here’s an excerpt from the column: “Today, I am going to suggest you take a different route: Focus on 10 basic, simple truths that many investors seemingly ignore. Some of you are unaware of these realities; others understand them intellectually but cannot act on your knowledge. These are the simple things that amateurs and pros alike get wrong. There are no guarantees on Wall Street. But if you take the following admonitions to heart — and act on them — I will extend you this money-back guarantee: You will become a much better investor.” Back to basics . . .     Source: For investors, it...more

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  • Abnormal Returns

    Sunday links: standard economics

    StrategyMichael Batnick, "You can lead an investor to a winning strategy, but you can’t make them stick with it when the going gets tough." (theirrelevantinvestor.tumblr.com)TweetPocketInstapaperWhy small, deliberate steps beat wholesale portfolio shifts. (wsj.com)TweetPocketInstapaperDo you have what it takes to make a bet on energy (or any other sector for that matter)? (obliviousinvestor.com)TweetPocketInstapaperYour reaction to last week's action tells us a lot about your strategy. (dashofinsight.com)TweetPocketInstapaperCan you invest without knowing the companies in your portfolio? (greenbackd.com)TweetPocketInstapaperThree questions to ask yourself about risk. (wsj.com)TweetPocketInstapaperProfilesA Q&A with David Merkel. (mint.com)TweetPocketInstapaperA profil...more

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  • naked capitalism

    Links 12/21/14

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  • The Big Picture

    10 Sunday Reads

    My pre-flight Jet Blue reads: • Strategies Can Beat The Market, You Can’t (Irrelevant Investor) • Wall Street Firms Endure Lost Decade After Goldman Peak in 2007 (Bloomberg) • Swedroe: Hedge Funds Rip Off Investors (ETF.com) see also Year of man v machine for hedge funds (FT) • The Promise of Smart Beta (Research Affiliates) • The Lessons of Oil (Oaktree Capital) • Maybe There’s No Such Thing as a Business Cycle (Bloomberg View) • Cheaper Oil, Fatter Wallets and a National Opportunity (NYT) • Half of Dr. Oz’s medical advice is baseless or wrong, study says (Washington Post) • Wars’ Cost to U.S. Since the Sept. 11 Attacks: $1.6 Trillion (Bloomberg) see also  Fact-checkers tear apart Dick Cheney’s pro-torture interviews (Raw Story) ...more

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  • naked capitalism

    “I Am The Very Model of a Democratic Strategist”

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  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    For Real Estate, The Winter Is Coming

    It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Orlando is primed to see an exodus of investors who bought thousands of houses in the area during the downturn, according to RealtyTrac. Winter Park real-estate agent David Welch has helped cash investors purchase Orlando-area houses in recent years. He said that so far, few have started to sell off their assets, but that prospect looms large. ‘It was great having them come in and grab these things, but at some point they’re going to want to divest themselves,’ Welch said. The investors aren’t likely to collaborate on how they sell off their properties, so it’s uncertain how the market will be affected, Welch added.” “Wielding the biggest clout among the investor-owne...more

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  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    Bits Bucket for December 21, 2014

    Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.

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  • The Aleph Blog » The Aleph Blog

    Out and About with The Aleph Blog

    1. Recently I appeared on RT Boom/Bust again.  The interview lasts 6+ minutes.  Erin Ade and I discussed:Who benefits from lower energy prices.The No-Lose Line for owning bonds,Whether you are compensated for inflation risks in long bondsHow much an average person should invest in stocks with any assets that they have after buying their own house.The value of economics, or lack thereof, to investors today.2. Also, I did an “expert interview” for Mint.com.  I answered the following questions:What is your most basic advice on investing?What can you tell young people to help them stay financially secure in their futures?How can a potential investor go about finding the best investment professional to work with for his or her individual needs?Please explain h...more

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  • Calculated Risk

    Existing Home Sales: A Likely "Miss"

    The NAR will report November Existing Home Sales on Monday, December 22nd. The consensus is the NAR will report sales at 5.20 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), however economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 4.90 million on a SAAR basis.Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for over 4 years.  The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's initial reported level of sales.  Lawler hasn't always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler's estimate and the "consensus", Lawler has been closer.Over the last four years, the consensus average miss was 150 thousand with a standard d...more

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  • My voice and noise on subprime bank regulations

    Europe, a future built by avoiding risks, is as risky as futures come.

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  • Abnormal Returns

    Saturday links: caring for introverts

    TechnologyWould you fly a commercial airliner with only one pilot? (wsj.com)TweetPocketInstapaperGraphene may very well change the world as we know it. (newyorker.com)TweetPocketInstapaperNASA has plans to live on Venus. (uk.businessinsider.com)TweetPocketInstapaperWork and healthCompanies really want their employees to lose weight. (wsj.com)TweetPocketInstapaperJust how private is your company's wellness data? (bloomberg.com)TweetPocketInstapaperAmericans, to their detriment, are trading sleep for work. (washingtonpost.com)TweetPocketInstapaperHealthWhy cold medicines are so confusing? (theatlantic.com)TweetPocketInstapaperHow a patch could help alleviate food allergies. (economist.com)TweetPocketInstapaperWhy babies' brains need love during their first year to develop...more

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  • The Capital Spectator

    Best of Book Bits 2014 (Part II)

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  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    Bits Bucket for December 20, 2014

    Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.

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  • Dealbreaker

    Write-Offs: 12.19.14

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  • Dealbreaker

    Arizona State Now Has Multiple Business Schools To Choose From

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  • Real Time Economics

    Fed’s Plosser Explains Dissent Vote, Says Policy Language Still Calendar-based

    Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia leader Charles Plosser said in a statement Friday the U.S. central bank is failing to make its monetary policy stance truly dependent on how the economy performs. Mr. Plosser’s comments came from a statement that explained why he cast a dissenting vote against the Fed monetary policy statement released Wednesday. That document said the Fed could be patient when considering the timing of rate increases. Charles Plosser Bloomberg Mr. Plosser joined with Dallas Fed leader Richard Fisher in voting “no” to the statement given that both men believe the timing of future rate increases likely lies closer than what most officials believe. Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota dissented as well, saying weak inflation argue...more

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  • Dealbreaker

    Bonus Watch ’14: Countrywide Whistleblowers

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  • Real Time Economics

    5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

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  • Real Time Economics

    Fed’s Lacker: Rate Rises Will Depend On Economy’s Path

    Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said Friday he isn’t ready to say when the U.S. central bank should raise rates. Mr. Lacker was speaking in Charlotte, N.C., as part of a panel discussion followed by questions from reporters. The official will gain a vote on the monetary-policy setting Federal Open Market Committeenext year. Most central bankers reckon the Fed will raise rates in 2015, with key officials favoring an increase around the middle of the year, assuming the economy performs as they expect. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker Bloomberg News “I support the characterization that we can be patient at this point and that characterization could change from meeting to meeting for me,” Mr. Lacker said. When it...more

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  • Abnormal Returns

    Friday links: backtest alpha deceptions

    MarketsIt's been awhile since the S&P 500 ($SPX) was up 2%+ two days in a row. (kimblecharting.tumblr.com)TweetPocketInstapaperSymbols: $SPX Utilities are poised for another period of outperformance. (allstarcharts.com)TweetPocketInstapaperEnergy stocks have put the hurt on a number of notable hedge funds this year. (wsj.com)TweetPocketInstapaperStrategyWhat stocks Eddy is adding to his Buy List for 2015. (crossingwallstreet.com)TweetPocketInstapaperIt's hard to get around the idea that hedge funds are on average a loser for investors. (etf.com)TweetPocketInstapaperDon't overemphasize the value of recent information. (awealthofcommonsense.com)TweetPocketInstapaperOn the value of focus for traders. (stockcharts.com)TweetPocketInstapaperCompaniesTime Inc. ($TIME) is pushi...more

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  • DRS » Blog

    Frontloading finalised

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  • DRS » Blog

    Frontloading finalised

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  • FT Alphaville

    The FT Alphaville Christmas Podcast

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  • The Capital Spectator

    Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: Nov 2014 Preview

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  • DRS » Blog

    ESMA Holiday reading- MiFID\MiFR latest consultations

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  • DRS » Blog

    ESMA Holiday reading- MiFID\MiFR latest consultations

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  • FT Alphaville

    “Alphaville Person of Interest 2014″ — you decide!

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  • FT Alphaville

    FirstFT (the new Lunch Wrap)

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  • AllAboutAlpha: Hedge Fund Trends & Alternative Investment Analysis

    Case study: Straits gives managed futures a facelift

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  • DRS » Blog

    CASS RP Bites on Small Alternative Investment Fund Managers

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  • DRS » Blog

    CASS RP Bites on Small Alternative Investment Fund Managers

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  • My voice and noise on subprime bank regulations

    Is telling banks “make your profits where it’s safe and stay away from what’s risky” an un-American act of cowardice?

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  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    California November home sales slowest since November 2007: Year-over-year sales are down 8 percent and market grinds to low volume as year closes.

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  • The Skeptical Speculator

    US stocks rebound as oil rallies, Chinese stocks hit 4-year high

    US stocks finally saw a strong rebound on Wednesday that saw it erasing almost half of its December loss. Bloomberg reports: The S&P 500 surged 2 percent to 2,012.89 by the 4 pm. close in New York, the biggest one-day gain since October 2013 to reduce the index’s December decline to 2.6 percent. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes climbed eight basis points to 2.14 percent and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.9 percent as the yen slid. Oil rallied from five-year lows to fuel gains in energy stocks, while the ruble strengthened before Russian President Vladimir Putin holds his annual media conference. The Fed said it will be patient on the timeline for higher rates, replacing a pledge to keep borrowing costs near zero for a “considerable time,” and raising its a...more

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  • AllAboutAlpha: Hedge Fund Trends & Alternative Investment Analysis

    Missing the Market: An American Visits Nigeria

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  • The Aleph Blog » The Aleph Blog

    Redacted Version of the December 2014 FOMC Statement

    Photo Credit: International Monetary FundOctober 2014December 2014CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace.No change. This is another overestimate by the FOMC.Labor market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing.Labor market conditions improved further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators sugges...more

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  • The Baseline Scenario

    Elizabeth Warren And The Independent Community Bankers of America Are Right: Antonio Weiss Should Not Become Undersecretary for Domestic Finance

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  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – December 17 2014

    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) decreased 5 basis points to 3.97% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 7% and the refinance application volume w...more

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  • Macro Man

    How the Market Stole Christmas!

    A trader's lament, with apologies to Dr. Seuss: You’re a mean one, Mr. MarketYou really are a heelIt is your common practiceBloody awful’s how we feelMr. MarketYou make the whole strasse trade like an imbecile!You’re a monster, Mr. MarketMy book’s a giant holeI added dollar/ruble Any my money you then stole, Mr. Market.Why didn’t I trade with a Czech, Turk, Hungarian or Pole?You’re a vile one, Mr. MarketLower oil’s good for stocksBut now energy high yield’sCracking underneath your shocksMr. MarketGiven the way you make me trade I feelDumb as a big ol’ box of rocks!You’re a foul one, Mr. MarketYou’re as nasty as a skunk.My payroll buy of dollar/yenIs now a bunch of junk,Mr. Market.The three words that best describe youAre as follows, and I quoteStin...more

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  • My voice and noise on subprime bank regulations

    What would have happened if Basel capital requirements for banks were lower for what’s “risky” than for what’s “safe”?

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  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    New Residential Construction Report: November 2014

    Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed notable declines to both permits and starts with total permit activity declining a notable 5.2% since October while total starts declined 1.6% over the same period.Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, declined 1.2% from October to 639K single family units (SAAR), and declined 0.9% below the level seen in November 2013 and still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005. ...more

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  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings December 2014

    Yesterday, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that assessments of housing activity went flat in December with the composite HMI index falling slightly to 57 from 58 the prior month while the "buyer traffic" index remained at a level of 45. ...more

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  • Emerging markets

    Emerging markets brace for stress test

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  • Macro Man

    Out

    As of yesterday, your author is out of all his macro positions, buying back the last of the EDZ5 he was assigned from Friday afternoon's silly expiry squeeze.  It's been a good run for him, largely as the result of a successful "pin the tail on the donkey" exercise in the aforementioned eurodollar contract.From here, he is happy to sit tight and watch to see if prices move to any sort of overbought/oversold extreme.  Bitter experience in  2011-12 taught him that expecting rational market responses to what can only be called more nonsense in Greece is a fool's errand, and there's no point playing if he doesn't have to.He doesn't trade Russia, as he makes it a policy not to trade the asset markets of countries that invade other sovereign states, unless they...more

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  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    Real Homes of Genius: $100k homes in Compton. Time to shop for deals in L.A. County if you don’t mind brown lawns and a touch of metal bars on the windows.

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  • Ticker Sense

    December 15th Blogger Sentiment Poll

    Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St (-) The Aleph Blog (-) Biiwii (-) BullBear Trading Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (+) Dividend Growth Investor (-) Elliot Wave Lives On (N) Fallond Stock Picks (-) Global Economic Intersection (-)... ...more

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  • The Skeptical Speculator

    Markets fall as oil hits five-year low

    Global markets suffered steep falls last week. Stocks fell sharply, with the MSCI All-Country World Index falling 3.8 percent last week. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 3.5 percent. The STOXX Europe 600 Index plunged 5.8 percent, its worst week in three years. The MSCI All-Country Asia Pacific Index fell 2.0 percent. Sentiment in stock markets were hurt by continuing declines in oil prices last week. West Texas Intermediate oil fell 12 percent, hitting its lowest level since May 2009 on Friday, while Brent fell 11 percent, hitting its lowest level since July 2009. Oil touched its lows for the week after the International Energy Agency reduced its 2015 demand forecast by 230,000 barrels, the fourth cut in its forecast in five months. The falls in stocks and oil hi...more

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  • The Aleph Blog » The Aleph Blog

    On Financial Risk Statements, Part 1

    Photo Credit: Chris PiascikMost formal statements on financial risk are useless to their users. Why?They are written in a language that average people and many regulators don’;t speak.They often don’t define what they are trying to avoid in any significant way.They don’t give the time horizon(s) associated with their assessments.They don’t consider the second-order behavior of parties that are managing assets in areas related to their areas.They don’t consider whether history might be a poor guide for their estimates.They don’t consider the conflicting interests and incentives of the parties that direct the asset managers, and how their own institutional risks affect their willingness to manage the risks that other parties deem import...more

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  • The Baseline Scenario

    Citigroup Will Be Broken Up

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  • Emerging markets

    China sprouts green shoots in securitization

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    It’s Baaack: Looming Greek Elections Threaten To Re-ignite the Euro Crisis

    If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again……  aka third time unlucky. The Euro crisis has all the signs of being back amongst us, and this time it may be here to stay. After two earlier false alerts – one in July around the collapse of the Portuguese Banco Espirito Santo, and another in October over the state of the Greek bailout negotiations – the announcement this week that the Greek presidential decision was being brought forward to December has sent the markets reeling off into a complete tizzy. In a development reminiscent of the heady days of 2012 yields on Greek 10yr bonds surged over a percentage point in the two days following the announcement, while the stock market fell on Tuesday  by the most on a single day since 1...more

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  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    Why Millennials are stuck living at home with parents: The impact on first time home buying, renting, and the 2015 housing market. Big jump in foreign EB-5 visas.

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  • Macro Man

    Ruh-roh Raggy, or I Love It When a Plan Comes Together

    Price action since last Friday's stonking payroll figure has been rather telling, wouldn't you say?  Two trades that have worked a treat in recent months- long Spooz and long USD/JPY- have come under the first threat of any kind since that gut-wrenching roller coaster ride in mid-October.Price action in the latter has been particularly troubling, as the first two trading days of the week saw a breathtaking 4-figure swoon before recovering, albeit modestly.  Having lived through, as the Prince of Frankfurt might say, the slings and arrows of outrageous markets for most of the year only to end on an apparent high, tolerance for further drawdowns must be miniscule indeed.Macro Man noted last month that some of the recent price action in  Japan reminded him o...more

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  • Emerging markets

    Investment banking: Ambitious locals up the ante in Asia

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  • The Baseline Scenario

    Don’t Repeal Swaps Push-Out Requirements (Section 716 of Dodd-Frank)

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  • footnoted*

    A big sendoff for Abercrombie’s CEO

    By now, you’ve undoubtedly heard the news about the sudden retirement yesterday of Mike Jeffries, who had been Chairman and CEO of Abercrombie & Fitch after more than 20 years of running the company. You may have even seen the news that Jeffries would be getting $5.5m in “cash and benefits continuation” according to the 8-K that the company filed late yesterday. We wanted to take a closer look because Abercrombie and Jeffries has been something of a frequent flyer here at footnoted over the years. Indeed, we counted 37 separate items that we’ve written about Abercrombie over the years, including this pearl from 2010 that had the company paying Jeffries $4m not to use the corporate jet as frequently as he did in 2008. What we found is that if ...more

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  • A Fistful Of Euros

    Three economic history papers you should totally read

    The Berkeley Economic History Lab is blogging a lot of its recent working papers, and they’re a goldmine of great stuff. Here’s Richard Sutch writing in October this year, whose The Liquidity Trap, the Great Depression, and Unconventional Policy: Reading Keynes at the Zero Lower Bound basically recovers an important idea from the General Theory and Keynes’ practice during the Depression. Sutch’s gloss of Keynes is that an important way in which the zero lower bound constraint bites is that there is always a term-structure of interest rates, rather than anything like a single economywide rate of interest. As a result, even if short rates hit the ZLB or even go negative, a large segment of the yield spectrum will still be significantly positive. Th...more

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  • Ticker Sense

    December 8th Blogger Sentiment Poll

    Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St (N) The Aleph Blog (-) Biiwii (N) BullBear Trading Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight Dividend Growth Investor Elliot Wave Lives On (N) Fallond Stock Picks Global Economic Intersection (-) GEI – Investing... ...more

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  • Steve Keen's Debtwatch

    Talks in Germany

    I gave talks to students in Berlin and Hamburg last week at the invitation of of Rethinking Economics groups at Berlin Free University and the University of Hamburg. Both groups asked me to cover some of the critiques of mainstream economics that I provide in Debunking Economics, as well as covering the monetary approach to Post Keynesian economics that has been the focus of most of my more recent public lectures. I included a large number of references to Post Keynesian literature–both to fulfil the students’ requests, and to counter Diane Coyle’s claim in the recent BBC Radio 4 documentary Teaching Economics After The Crash that the students’ call to be taught Post Keynesian economics represents “going back to the economics of the 1930s and these almost Med...more

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  • Steve Keen's Debtwatch

    L’Imposture Economique Hits #10 in France

    Bravo to Les Editions de l’Atelier, the publishers of L’Imposture Economique (the French translation of Debunking Economics), who have achieved the seemingly impossible: L’Imposture Economique entered the Top Ten out of all books on Amazon France yesterday (December 4th 2014). It was the top-selling non-fiction book, outranking even Piketty’s Capital (as I write, L’Imposture is #12 in books while Capital is #53). I don’t expect it to last at that ranking, but I didn’t expect it to achieve that position in the first place, so it feels great to see it there. Congratulations again to Les Editions de l’Atelier, and to Gael Giraud who took the initiative in arranging its translation into French. ...more

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  • Mises Institute

    Secession, State, and Liberty

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  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    If you think we're post-racial, read the lead article from the November 2014 American Economic Review

    Alesina and La Ferrara conclude:This paper proposes a test for racial bias in capital sentencing in the US over the period 1973-1995. We use the share of judicial errors in rst degree sentencing as an indicator of racial bias of such courts. Using an originally collected dataset, we uncover a bias against minority defendants killing white victims. The bias is present, according to our test, only in Southern States. More precisely, according to our interpretation rst degree courts tend to place less weight on the possibility of condemning an innocent in cases of minority defendants with one or more white victims relative to minority defendants who did not kill whites. The same does not hold for white defendants. This result is not explaine...more

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  • Steve Keen's Debtwatch

    Teaching Economics After the Crash

    The Guardian’s senior economics commentator Aditya Chakrabortty has produced an excellent BBC Radio 4 program on the failure of academic economics to reform itself after the Crash of 2007: Teaching Economics After the Crash. The first interview is with Kingston University’s own Devrim Yilmaz. It also includes me, George Soros, Andy Haldane, Ha-Joon Chang, the students who began the Post Crash Economics Society at Manchester University, Diane Coyle (who played a large role in developing the CORE curriculum, of which I’m very critical), Philip Mirowski (who describes CORE as “lipstick on a pig”), Rob Johnson of INET, and many more. It’s well worth a listen (it opens with about 20 seconds of a promo for a later program on a paralympian): Teaching Economics A...more

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  • Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up

    Activist Targets IBM: “Bring Out the Belgian Waffle!”

    IBM trades to highs on activist related speculation  (161.85 +0.95)—Briefing.com, November 23, 2014  IBM Chief Counsel: “Ginni?  Fred here.”   IBM CEO Ginni Rometty:  “What’s wrong?”  Chief Counsel: “Activists are circling.”  Rometty: “Oh geez.”  Chief Counsel: “Yeah.  I’ve got the biggest shark of all on hold.  He wants to talk.”  Rometty: “Carl Icahn??”  Chief Counsel:  “No.   Icahn watches Netflix and uses an iPhone.  He thinks we’re ‘old economy.’  Worse than Icahn.”  Rometty: “Donald Trump?”  Chief Counsel:  “No.   Even worse.”  Rometty:  “Worse than Donald Trump?  How is that possib...more

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  • Ticker Sense

    Cyber Monday Special

    Entering the holiday season we are offering a one-year subscription to our Reminiscences newsletter at a 33.33% discount or $150.01! This offer is for new subscribers only and valid until 12/5/14. We published our December issue last week and our... ...more

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  • VIX and More

    How to Ride an Aging Bull (Guest Columnist at Barron’s)

    Yesterday marked the fifteenth time I have served as a guest columnist for The Striking Price at Barron’s and How to Ride an Aging Bull is one of the few articles I have written for Barron’s that has not focused almost exclusively on the VIX and volatility. In the Barron’s article I note that pundits have been calling this “the most hated bull market ever” for about three years and partly as a result of the mistrust of large bull moves, many retail investors have exited the market when they feared prices were getting ahead of themselves. As stocks have continued to rally, these same investors have had difficulty getting back in at even higher prices. Now, with 2015 just around the corner, quite a few of these investors believe stocks can continue to move high...more

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  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    October 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

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  • footnoted*

    What was Visa waiting for?

    Disclosure practices of some companies don’t make sense, especially when it comes to their executive compensation. Take credit card giant Visa Inc., for instance. Over a year ago, on May 23, 2013 to be exact, the company announced via a press release the appointment of Ryan McInerney as the company’s president. On the same day, the company filed this 8-K, with his compensation details, including his $2 million signing bonus, which we covered here. So far, so good. Or so we thought, until we clicked open one of the exhibits filed with the company’s latest annual report on Nov. 21. In that exhibit and another related one, the company disclosed payouts running into millions of dollars to its executive vice president of Technology, Rajat Taneja. The exhibi...more

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  • Mises Institute

    From Aristocracy to Monarchy to Democracy

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  • Mises Institute

    Secrets About Money That Put You at Risk

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  • Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up

    Now That's An Idea That Would Never Fly

     Former BB&T* CEO John Allison has written a book about, well, about his time at BB&T, during which it grew from $275 million in assets to $152 billion (profitably) and some lessons learned along the way. American Banker, one of the publications Warren Buffett reads every day, is publishing excerpts from the book, covering everything from how BB&T got into the subprime auto lending business to how it looks for acquisitions (100 and counting during Allison's 35 years at the bank). And while Warren Buffett has long lambasted American CEOs for not providing shareholders with honest post-mortems about acquisitions where big things were promised but not delivered, Allison makes Buffett look like a piker when it comes to the notion that deals ought ...more

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  • footnoted*

    Is Actavis’ new CFO Really worth $22 Million?

    When it comes to executive compensation, do the board members and compensation consultants who dole it out ever think there’s such a thing as too much of a good thing? That’s the question we found ourselves asking after reading the 8-K that Actavis plc filed late Wednesday. If you are a footnoted regular, you would know that we pay close attention to filings that come in after the close of the markets, especially on Fridays. So when Actavis, the Ireland-based pharmaceutical giant Actavis arrived a little after 5 p.m. on Wednesday, we sent out a quick note to our subscribers, highlighting what seems like incredibly generous compensation for incoming CFO Maria Teresa Hilado. In fact, we were pretty surprised that this wasn’t filed late on a Friday, given...more

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  • Institutional Economics

    Capital Gains Tax Reform in Canada: Lessons from Abroad

    The Fraser Institute has released a new volume on international experience with capital gains taxes. I wrote the chapter on New Zealand, with some reference to Australia. Australia was deemed too similar to Canada to warrant a chapter in its own right....more

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  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    Jung Hyun Choi and I write about Income Inequality across Cities.

    We will be presenting at APPAM:This paper investigates why the level of income inequality differs across U.S. cites. We alsoexplore why some cities experienced faster increases in the level of inequality than others.Using the Decennial Census and the American Community Survey (ACS) from 1980 to 2011,we explore whether the disparities in the level and the changes in the level of inequality canbe explained by MSA characteristics, including labor market conditions, skill distribution,residential mobility, racial concentration, industrial composition and unionization. We alsoexamine how state level policies such as unemployment insurance benefits and minimumwage level is associated with income inequality.Our findings hows that negative labor market conditions, concentration...more

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  • DealBook

    Investigation Causes Citigroup to Cut Profit

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  • DealBook

    Judge Approves Bankruptcy Exit for Stockton, Calif.

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  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    How people who can't do math get shafted.

    I have a car (an Accord, if you must know) that is 17 months old.  When I bought the car, the dealer offered me a car loan at 0 percent interest for 36 months, so I took it.  Even in the world of very low discount rates, accepting the loan allowed me to get a further small effective discount on the car.The dealer called me today, saying I could trade the car in for a new car and not increase my payment; the payment would simply reset for 36 months.  I told him I needed to do a little math before calling him back.  The math I did was as follows:Value of Old Car from Kelly Blue Book + PV of 36 months of payments = Cost of New Car.Cost of New Car - Edmunds Value of New Car = $6000.Yes, the dealer was trying to fool me into paying $6000 for...nothin...more

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  • DealBook

    Praise for Coming Out From Someone Who Did

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  • The Street Light

    Transfer Pricing Economics

    I'd like to announce that after a long hiatus from blogging, I'm taking it up again in a new forum.  The new blog, Transfer Pricing Economics, is primarily devoted to exploring my particular area of professional specialty, namely "transfer pricing".  If that term doesn't mean anything to you, then feel free to check out my brief explanation of transfer pricing. My aim is to expose and analyze the connections between the arcane world of transfer pricing and broader developments in the economic and financial world. And the connections are significant: the rules and economic logic of transfer pricing have a direct impact on trillions of dollars of international trade every year. So please feel free to check in on and contribute to the discussions about these...more

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  • VIX and More

    Fear Poll: Fed/QE, Ebola and Technicals Top Worry List

    Stocks may be in the process of putting in a bottom, but with the VIX hitting 31.06 yesterday at the same time VIX futures were setting new volume records, investor fear and anxiety is as high as it has been since the 2011 European sovereign debt crisis. As the VIX and More Fear Poll results reflect, the current situation is particularly difficult for investors to grapple with because there is so much disagreement about what the biggest worry is and how some of these fears may be connected. In the chart below, I have summarized the almost 400 votes from some 35 countries, with the U.S. accounting for 65% of all respondents. It is worth noting that the responses appear to be somewhat headline driven, as yesterday Ebola topped the list of worries, only to be supplanted...more

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  • VIX and More

    Largest SPX Pullback of 2014 Hits 6.4%

    Every time there is a pullback, it seems as if I receive multiple requests for an updated version of the table below. With the S&P 500 index reeling and still trying to find a bottom, this looks like a good time to put the current pullback in the context of the 27 most significant peak-to-trough declines from new highs since the SPX bottomed in March 2009. Note that the current 6.4% decline from the September 19th high of 2019 is roughly average in terms of duration, but makes it the second largest pullback in percentage terms since 2012, just eclipsing the January-February 2014 pullback, when emerging markets (EEM) and Crimea were weighing heavily on the minds of investors. Keep in mind that as ugly has things have been in the SPX, the Russell 2000 small cap inde...more

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  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    September 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

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  • FinanceProfessor.com

    Dark pools in the news: looks at Wall Street's secret trading exchanges (Dark Pools)

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  • FinanceProfessor.com

    So what is the CEO to average worker ratio? 511 or 4? Depends on what you report.

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  • FinanceProfessor.com

    Active vs. Passive in Global Investing | Financial Planning

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  • Institutional Economics

    I am leaving CIS and returning to financial markets

    This is my last week at CIS. I will be returning to financial markets from whence I came back in 2008. Thanks to Greg Lindsay for giving me a platform to participate in the public policy debate over the last few years. Thanks also to those who contributed to Policy while I was editor over the last 18 months. Policy will continue under a new editor. My new employer won’t be paying me to blog or tweet during business hours, so you will be hearing even less from me on what is already a very low frequency blog. I will still post material here from time to time and link to what I am doing when appropriate. Needless to say, nothing on this web site should be attributed to current or previous employers. This blog has followed me around in various roles since 2003, back whe...more

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  • Institutional Economics

    Wayne Swan on Monetary Offset and the GFC

    Former Treasurer Wayne Swan is releasing some of his briefing notes from the GFC ahead of the launch of his upcoming memoir, The Good Fight. The first instalment from a meeting at the Prime Minister’s residence with the Prime Minister, Treasury Secretary and other senior officials on 4 August 2008 is remarkable for its acknowledgement of monetary offset. Indeed, the notes could just as easily have been written by Scott Sumner: There are three broad considerations the Government would need to keep in mind in taking a decision to engage in discretionary [fiscal] action: • The Reserve Bank through its control over interest rates, determines the overall level of aggregate demand in the economy, and the Bank would likely take account of any fiscal stimulus in its monet...more

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  • The Prudent Investor

    The Coming Silver Shortage

    Click here to go to the The Prudent Investor homepage for more interesting posts.

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  • A Dash of Insight

    Weighing the Week Ahead: More Clarity from the Market Message?

    Do you have an opinion about stocks or bonds or foreign exchange? If so, it is easy to find a market message that will support (or contradict) your viewpoint. The "message" of the market has rarely been this confused. With plenty of important news and data this week, the theme will be: Can we find clarity in the market message? Prior Theme RecapLast week I expected a focus on housing. The short trading week would start with Prof. Shiller (that was right) and end with discussion of pending home sales (also right). In between, there was plenty of filler because nothing much seemed to be happening. I lost count of the number of stories about the driverless Google car – interesting, but not very relevant for the markets. Forecasting the theme is an exercise in plann...more

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  • A Dash of Insight

    Weighing the Week Ahead: Will a Sluggish Housing Sector Derail the Economy?

    In a holiday-shortened week, there is plenty of data. The Case-Shiller home-price index will set the tone on Tuesday morning. After last week's soft housing reports, many will be asking, Will housing weakness undermine economic growth? Prior Theme RecapLast week I expected a focus on bonds versus stocks. It was a light week for data and the bond market rally was an ongoing mystery. That theme was as good as any, but nothing really stood out. The appetite for content created many "fluff" pieces and trading was very quiet. As long as you did not take small moves seriously, there was an opportunity to do some buying at mid-week. Forecasting the theme is an exercise in planning and being prepared. Readers are invited to play along with the "theme forecast." I spend a l...more

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  • A Dash of Insight

    The Sound of Silence

    The insightful investor develops solid indicators and then follows the data. This may seem obvious, but instead…. Many pundits start with the conclusion and then search for evidence.  [For complete appreciation of today's post, follow the links for the relevant music.] There are a number of interesting current examples. In various prior posts I have suggested that these were not really important leading indicators, so I am not flip-flopping by drawing inferences from improved conditions. Others will do that via their silence. I suggest that you recall the scary recent warnings on these themes – now all showing improvement – and note the sound of silence:  Margin debt. Remember how you were supposed to be scared witless (TM OldProf) by this event? It appea...more

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  • Felix Salmon

    Post Felix

    By Shane Ferro Today is Felix’s last day at Reuters. Here's the link to his mega-million word blog archive (start from the beginning, in March 2009, if you like). Because we’re source-agnostic, you can also find some of his best stuff from the Reuters era at Wired, Slate, the Atlantic, News Genius, CJR, the NYT, and NY Mag. There’s also Felix TV, his personal site, his Tumblr, his Medium archive, and, of course, the Twitter feed we all aspire to. Counterparties may have been the brainchild of Felix and the recently departed Ryan McCarthy, but the blog, site, newsletter, and Twitter feed will continue to exist in their absence. It will be run by Ben Walsh and Shane Ferro, with some non-trivial amount of snark. Today we focus on the reason Felix started Counterparti...more

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  • Felix Salmon

    The Piketty pessimist

    By Felix Salmon This chart comes from the World Economic Forum’s 2014 Global Risks Report, which came out just before Thomas Piketty’s book started becoming the topic of discussion in economic and plutocratic circles.* You can clearly see what you might call the rise of inequality-as-an issue: before 2012 it’s nowhere to be found, but since then it’s been consistently in the top spot. My prediction is that in 2015, thanks to Piketty, the WEF will start talking less about income inequality, and more about wealth inequality. The big question, though, is whether inequality is really much of a risk at all. After all, from the point of view of the average billionaire WEF delegate, inequality would seem to look much more like a reward. Chrystia Freeland has a hopeful...more

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  • Economix

    Economix Meets the Gales of Change

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  • Economix

    Economix Meets the Gales of Change

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  • Felix Salmon

    The most expensive lottery ticket in the world

    By Felix Salmon No Exit, the new book from Gideon Lewis-Kraus, should be required reading for anybody who thinks it might be a good idea to found a startup in Silicon Valley. It shows just how miserable the startup founder’s life is, and raises the question of why anybody would voluntarily subject themselves to such a thing. A large part of the answer is that Silicon Valley is gripped by a mass delusion, compounded by a deep “fake it til you make it” attitude toward success. Why do so many people in Silicon Valley want to be founders? Because every founder they meet is always killing it, crushing it, having massive success, just about to close a huge round, etc etc. At some level, they must know this is impossible: if 90% of startups fail, it simply can’t be the...more

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  • Economix

    Mortgage Reform Is Worth the Small Extra Cost to Borrowers

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  • Economix

    Mortgage Reform Is Worth the Small Extra Cost to Borrowers

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  • Economix

    In Europe, Auto Sales Are Still Low, But They Are Rising

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  • Economix

    In Europe, Auto Sales Are Still Low, But They Are Rising

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  • Accrued Interest

    Getting Involved in Bitcoin

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  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Capital Gains And Games Now Being Published By Forbes

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  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Big Changes Are Coming To Capital Gains And Games

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  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Camp Plan Puts Nail In Tax Reform Coffin For This Year, And Next, And...

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  • The Prudent Investor

    30,000 Protesters Take To The Streets in Nantes, France

    While the world is glued to Youtube live feeds in HD quality to the bonfires in Kiev where one corrupt regime is about to be replaced by another, the economic crisis erupts into fire in the heartland of the Eurozone.30,000 protesters took to the streets in Nantes, France on Saturday, in an ongoing struggle to prevent the building of a new airport.Due to the language barrier and a blackout in EU media this report for the BBC from 2012 shows that fronts are pretty hardened. Protesters claim that the Notre-Dame-des-Landes airport in the west of the country is unnecessary and would damage the enviroment while the local government just wants to press on with an agenda obviously abhorred in this town of 900,000.We miss the uproar in the EU about the deployment of pepper spray...more

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  • The Prudent Investor

    You Have No Deposits at the Bank but Only an IOU in Your Hands

    A nice reminder that once you deposit mony at the bank it is not yours anymore. Simply said your deposit is a – currently no interest paying – loan to the bank with little paperwork. Better get it before the bank runs begin. Click here to go to the The Prudent Investor homepage for more interesting posts. ...more

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  • Accrued Interest

    Why You Should Dump Those Shares of Tesla Now

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  • The Oil Drum - Discussions about Energy and Our Future

    The Oil Drum writers: Where are they now?

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  • Accrued Interest

    HOW CAN THE MARKET REACTION TO THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN AND DEBT CEILING DEBATE BE A GOOD THING FOR INVESTORS?

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  • The Oil Drum - Discussions about Energy and Our Future

    The Last Post

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  • The Oil Drum - Discussions about Energy and Our Future

    The House That Randy Built

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  • The Street Light

    Cyprus and Eurozone Bank Deposits

    To me, the central issue raised by this week's Cyprus debacle is how it has affected confidence across the eurozone.  To what degree has the possibility of insured depositors at a eurozone bank losing a portion of their deposits affected the mindset of depositors?  To what degree has ECB acquiescence to this possibility undermined the notion that deposit insurance in the eurozone means the same thing in all countries?  And to what degree has the ECB's direct threat to end support for Cyprus's banking system in the event that the government of Cyprus can not arrange sufficient funds to meet its conditions made a farce of its earlier promise to "do whatever it takes to preserve the euro"?These, to me, are the interesting questions prompted by this week's ev...more

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  • London Banker

    Chop Off Their Hands . . .

    President Truman famously called for a one handed economist. The Carolingian kings of France would have accommodated him. They realised that a kingdom required a common currency under the control of the king and well regulated markets to sustain the confidence of the people. At first mints were established widely, spread across the kingdom. Local barons began to profit from debasing the coinage, undermining confidence in the monetary system. So Charles the Bald established mints under his direct control and regulated the issue of coins: C.12. Following the custom of our predecessors, just as it is found in their capitularies, we decree that in no other place in all our kingdom shall money be made except in our palace, and in St. Josse and Rouen, which right in th...more

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  • The Street Light

    When the Fed Chair is an Academic

    The big economic news of the week was, in fact, big economic news: the Fed's announcement of significant changes from past practice in the the quantity of its next round of large scale asset purchases ("unlimited"), and in the timing of any future reversal of this expansionary policy ("a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens").I view this as a pretty fundamental shift in how the Fed hopes to affect the economy.  Rather than trying to push economic activity one way or the other through its management of interest rates (which can alter economic activity through its portfolio-rebalancing and wealth effects, for example), the Fed is now quite explicitly trying to affect economic activity by altering interest rate and inflation expectations.  As...more

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  • London Banker

    For Want of a Nail, the Ship Was Lost

    Imagine a great ship dominating the skyline on a distant sea. Imagine the complexity of that ship: keel, ribs, planks, masts, spars, and an infinite number of less readily named components. Each component was hand-crafted by a craftsman skilled in his trade, to precise requirements, and secured in position to take the stress and strain of a life at sea.Now imagine a crew. They didn't build the ship. The crew are told that the one and only purpose of the ship is to realise a profit for every man jack aboard. Any hand not contributing a profit will be turned ashore. Down below in the ship are nails. Thousands and thousands of nails. Nails are useful. Nails are much sought after in every port the ship enters. Nails can be readily sold and never traced. The crew h...more

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  • London Banker

    Lies, Damn Lies and LIBOR

    I've been hesitant to write about the LIBOR scandal because what I want to say goes so much further. We now know that Barclays and other major global banks have been manipulating the calculation of LIBOR through the quotation data they provided to the British Bankers Association. What I suspect is that this is not a flaw but a feature of modern financial markets. And if it was happening in LIBOR for between 5 and 15 years, then the business model has been profitably replicated to many other quotation-based reference prices.Price discovery is not a sexy function of markets, but it is critical to the efficient allocation of scarce capital and resources, and to the preservation of the long term wealth of investors and the economy as a whole. If price discovery is compr...more

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Emre Deliveli The Kapali Carsi

Emre Deliveli is a freelance consultant, part-time lecturer in economics and columnist. Previously, Emre worked as economist for Citi Istanbul, covering Turkey and the Balkans. He was previously Director of Economic Studies at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey in Ankara and has has also worked at the World Bank, OECD, McKinsey and the Central Bank of Turkey. Emre holds a B.A., summa cum laude, from Yale University and undertook his PhD studies at Harvard University, in Economics.

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