Author: Huw Pohlner, Asialink
Over the last two decades, Chinese governments have approved the construction of a cascade of large dams on the stretches of the Mekong River that lie within its borders, prompting disquiet amongst downstream riparian states.
Those states — Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam — are now set to wage their own battle for control of precious water resources, with China looming large through its role as a willing creditor.
Despite hydropower plans for the Lower Mekong dating back to the 1950s, the river still flows freely south of the Chinese border. That may not be the case for much longer. The governments of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam have proposed to build eleven dams on the Lower Mekong — nine in Laos and two in Cambodia. M...more
In a column in the Economic Times today, I look back at SEBI's journey of the last 25 years. In success and in failure, SEBI was the laboratory where we learned how to do financial economic policy.
You may find it interesting to look at my note about RBI at age 75 (in 2010).
...more
Author: Micha’el Tanchum, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Myanmar’s abundant energy resources and key geostrategic location between India and China has seen a miniature ‘Great Game’ develop since its recent democratic opening and re-entry into the international community.
While several countries have become players in Myanmar’s development, India and China have taken the lead with the construction of multi-billion dollar deepwater ports and energy projects.
The increasing Buddhist nationalist violence against Myanmar’s Muslim minority is creating instability in regions of Myanmar critical to India and China. On 22 March 2013, Myanmar imposed a state of emergency in Meiktila, a town in central Myanmar, after three days of anti-Muslim rioting left over 40 peop...more
Author: Tobias Harris, Cambridge, Massachusetts
With the yen falling to below JPY100/US$1 for the first time since 2009 and the Nikkei posting five-year highs, analysts have begun declaring victory for the Abe administration’s campaign against deflation and slow growth.
But it is far too early to draw conclusions about the success of Abenomics — given that deflation continues — and there remain a number of unanswered questions surrounding the Abe government’s economic program.
Ultimately, the success of an economic program must be measured not just in terms of corporate balance sheets but also in terms of the economic wellbeing of citizens. If wages remain stagnant or if Japan experiences a jobless recovery, can Abenomics be declared a success?
It remains to be...more
Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2013-5-23
It has been confirmed that North Korea has passed a ‘City Beautification Law’ and that it is moving ahead in earnest with environmental beautification projects.
On May 9, 2013 the mouthpiece of North Korea’s cabinet, the Minju Chosun, introduced the city beautification legislation in its ‘Regulations Explained’ section. This is the first time city beautification has been mentioned in one of North Korea’s major publications. The Ministry of Unification claimed that “it has not yet been confirmed” whether this law has been enacted. The City Beatification Law was not included in the Complete Collection of North Korean Statutes which was published in October 2012. As such, one can infer that the City Beauti...more
In a market where consumers are on edge about what they are eating, there are going to be opportunities for firms with a brand supported by safe to enter the market. In China, this market has recently been filled by the importation of products that were easily transportable, and an explosion in the organics market, but few Western firms had been able to penetrate into a wider market.
Que up Chiquita, with their locally sourced, three times washed, chemical free, salad mixes…. which are sold at a very reasonable 17-22RMB (depending on store).
They are hitting the market in a big way, and over the last couple of months I have begun to see their penetration into new stores and product groups expand… and I expect this will only continue as consumers cont...more
According to Yonhap:
A United Nations organization supporting child birth has provided US$500,000 worth of medical aid to North Korean mothers and children, a report said Wednesday.
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) shipped drugs and medical equipment for mothers with newborn babies in the North last month, the report by the Washington-based Radio Free Asia said.
The goods were sent to about 300 health facilities in the country and the UNFPA tapped into the U.N.’s Central Emergency Response Fund in order to provide the assistance, it said.
With a budget of $10 million, the UNFPA has been leading a five-year project to help pregnant North Korean women and conduct a census in the communist country since 2011.
Maternal death in the North reached 77 in 2008,...more
According to Bloomberg:
North Korea freed a Chinese fishing vessel and its crew after the boat’s owner posted updates on his microblog account saying that he’d been told to pay a 600,000-yuan ($97,800) ransom to win their release.
The ship and its crew, from the northern city of Dalian, were freed today, the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing a Chinese consular officer in North Korea. The ship’s owner, Yu Xuejun, said on his Tencent Holdings Ltd. (700) microblog account today that he couldn’t come up with the cash and was “thankful to the Foreign Ministry for its diplomacy.”
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China, which filed a formal complaint over the detention, is asking North Korea to investigate and “make a full explanation to us,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong...more
Shanghai Daily reports:
IN an underground mall just a stone's throw from the Chinese mainland's border with Macau, a row of 30 small shops with identical gold plaques do a brisk, though shadowy trade with mainland visitors, many of them bound for the gambling hub. "Good rates. Better than the banks," shout salespeople jostling to usher clients into shops where thick wads of notes change hands. Licensed as liquor and dry goods stores with stacked shelves of rice wine and cigarettes, many conduct their real business in back rooms - as underground bankers and remittance agents. "It's very simple," said one agent surnamed Choi. "You give me renminbi here. Then we deliver Hong Kong dollars to you in Macau. We can move tens of millions eac...more
[This piece appeared at Asia Times Online on May 21, 2013. It can be reposted if ATOl is credited and a link provided.] The big story in Asia affairs today is a little trip that was supposed to stay a secret: the dispatch of Isao Iijima, adviser to Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, to meet with senior officials in North Korea, thereby breaking the united US/South Korean/Japanese front in negotiations with Pyongyang. It is the first instance of an overt divergence between Japanese and US diplomatic and security strategies, something that has been implicit in Japan's sometimes-inflammatory brand of nationalism under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe - and Abe's determination to move Japan beyond its traditional role of obedient US ally to independent regional...more
Dear AHCB reader,
Please join me tomorrow in Seattle with the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) for an interactive roundtable breakfast discussing Myanmar’s health infrastructure. The rise of health on the government priority list is opening up new opportunities for foreign engagement. How is Myanmar’s openness making an impact on the health system? RSVP and comment at the following link.
http://www.nbr.org/research/activity.aspx?id=9d11cac2-7910-4116-82c0-6335d852bcd1
The details from the NBR site are as follows:
From 1962-2010, Myanmar was a closed country under military rule. Once Asia’s wealthiest nation, it is now one of its poorest, despite having abundant natural resources.
Background on healthcare in Myanmar:
Lack of government investment in h...more
As Attentive Reader knows, I’ve been pushing a couple ideas about the diverging aims of the US, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar ever since the reboot of the overseas Syrian opposition at Doha in November 2012.First, the logical endgame for the increasingly radicalized and bloody Syrian insurrection is not victory; it is a clubbing together of moderate, conservative, and authoritarian forces to suppress the jihadis, as occurred during the “Anbar Awakening” (or less politely, “death squads a go go” or “liquidation of AQ-aligned forces by an opportunistic alliance of local Sunni elites and US special forces”) in Iraq.Case proven on this point.The United States is way past hiding its anxiety about extremists in Syria. According to UAE’s The National, it wants...more
Starting in September, I will teach a course in International Marketing in the Fudan-Boston University Program. The course is delivered through Fudan University's School of Social Development and Public Policy. This is a study abroad program delivered to students from Boston University's School of Management. - Brian...more
WSJ reports:
How high is inflation in China? Some suspect it is higher than is captured in the official consumer price index.A new measure developed by e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. seems to give that idea some credibility. The official CPI puts inflation at 2.4% year-on-year in April. Alibaba’s Internet Shopping Price Index – based on transactions on the firm’s Taobao and Tmall websites – puts it at 6.9%.
After an article in The Wall Street Journal drew attention to the discrepancy, China’s National Bureau of Statistics went into action. They pored over the description of the Alibaba index (in Chinese), and dispatched researchers to Hangzhou to interview its creators.
Read more: http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/05/20/inflation-defla...more
Was speaking to a friend the other day about how China is a place where you can, and should, reinvent yourself on a regular basis.
Something that the US Fed Chairman believes is something the future generation should grow used to as well.
“During your working lives, you will have to reinvent yourselves many times,” he said. “Success and satisfaction will not come from mastering a fixed body of knowledge but from constant adaptation and creativity in a rapidly changing world.”
I guess I found my transferable skill!
...more
The first step in the economics of business cycles is to establish `stylised facts' about the characteristics of business cycle fluctuations. Once these are know, alternative models can be judged on the extent they are able to predict these stylised facts. This is routine in mainstream macroeconomics, which is largely about the United States economy.
When we think about India, however, there is the question of structural transformation of the economy. There was an old Indian macroeconomics which worried about different things. In recent decades, the economy has changed in fundamental ways: the economy has become mostly open, the role of agriculture has subsided, a financial system has come about and private decisions of firms that are shaped by financial markets...more
This is Part III of Bradely Hoath’s three part special series, China’s Hukou System: A Passport to Health. The series aims to explore how China’s hukou system impacts the health of China’s migrant labor population. In Part I, Bradley explained how the Hukou system impacts access to care. In Part II, Bradley looked at how the hukou system impacts the ability to get housing, and how that ability, or lack there of, further impacts health outcomes. In this concluding installment, Bradley explores the link between the Hukou system, education and health. How does the link between Hukou’s and educational opportunities affect health outcomes?
For a general introduction to the Hukou system, please refer back to Part I.
Education Access and Health Status
The re...more
“Irritating Japan” Well On Its Way to Replacing “Rising China” MemeThere is a delicious—well, delicious to me, anyway—flavor of Western bewilderment about the neverending parade of Japanese nationalist shenanigans.The most recent entry was Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto’s endorsement of the World War II Japanese military brothel system a.k.a. “comfort women”:"In the circumstances in which bullets are flying like rain and wind, the soldiers are running around at the risk of losing their lives," "If you want them to have a rest in such a situation, a comfort women system is necessary. Anyone can understand that." Hashimoto—who seems to have way too much of his mental space occupied by visions of sexually rampaging soldiers-- made his remarks i...more
I wrote an article in the Economic Times today about autonomy for bodies such as the CBI.
There are five areas where there is a role for autonomy. But this is a difficult puzzle in public administration and we should be wary of simplistic solutions. We know a bit about how to do autonomy correctly in three areas (monetary policy, financial regulation, infrastructure regulation). Comparable cogitation is required for the other two problems (criminal investigation, tax administration).
...more
This is Part II of Bradely Hoath’s three part special series, China’s Hukou System: A Passport to Health. The series aims to explore how China’s hukou system impacts the health of China’s migrant labor population. In Part I, Bradley explained how the Hukou system impacts access to care. In this installment Bradley tells us how the hukou system impacts the ability to get housing, and how that, in turn, further impacts health outcomes.
For a general introduction to the Hukou system, please refer back to Part I.
Housing Access and Health Status
There has been a longstanding connection between access to adequate housing[1] and population health. It is well understood that housing quality is strongly associated with morbidity in terms of infectious...more
I’ve made it a point not to link to the Hidden Harmonies blog, let alone use it in a post title. As a rule, I refuse to read it to avoid a heightening of blood pressure. But this is one article you all have to see, even if it’s four days old already. (Link via James Fallows, who is as surprised as I am.) It begins,
After living here for more than 9 months, I have come to a most repugnant conclusion. It pains me to even think about it for I am a Chinese person who has often defended the traditions, institutions, values and dignity of the Children of Heaven. But the truth is often painful at first. I realize now that much of the problems in Chinese society, and a plethora of problems there are, are not from the Chinese government (not a surprise to me since I ...more
Being recognized as having the world’s best airport, or one of, is something that countries take seriously. for years, and likely for years to come, the main fight has been between Singapore an Hong Kong. both of which have amazing airports. Easy access to city, fast immigration, good food, shopping, stable wireless, and on time arrival/ takeoff.
All things that I personally find to be of importance, and for me make for a great airport.
So, when I saw Beijing Capital airport rank in 5th place and Shanghai Hongqiao at 19, I was left wondering. Seriously… Beijing at #5? Only one slot below HK? Hongqiao 40 places above Pudong?
Perhaps I am simply looking at this the wrong way. Perhaps I am being too critical.
Feel free to review the full list for yo...more
Roger Ebert 1942-2013“In facing your own mortality, what final message would you leave for future generations?” That question is from the 11th Hour series from Colorado Public Television which records living testaments from distinguished individuals delivering their lasting message to the world. Roger Ebert delivered this in 1994. He passed away just a month ago on April 4th, 2013.
We spend a great deal of time in mostly trivial pursuits on the web. But the web has an enormous wealth of content that could be of value to us. However we have to invest time and concentration to take what we are given so freely. This talk by Roger Ebert is worth the time.
For many years I have enjoyed Ebert’s movie reviews on public television. Although I sometimes disag...more
I’m back home and never experienced jet lag like this, getting up at three in the afternoon. The total trip home, with layovers, was nearly 21 hours.
My last days in China were spent in Beijing, and for all it’s flaws (air, traffic, the usual headaches) it remains my favorite place to be even though Shanghai wins in the aesthetic category, with its gorgeous, winding tree-lined streets and colonial architecture, at least in the French Concession area. I can see why so many people I know swear by Shanghai and say its their favorite place to live, even though they are totally wrong.
There’s a new Sinica podcast out in which I’m interviewed. Please check it out.
...more
The 3rd president of Pakistan, General Yahya Khan, must be the original “My Name is Khan.” In 1971 he instructed his army to “Kill 3 million of them and the rest will eat out of our hands.” He was talking about his compatriots in the eastern half of Pakistan, present day Bangladesh. Not just the borders, Pakistani innards are bloody as well. Anyway, the Pakistani army proceeded with the job of killing three million and by some estimates, achieved that target. India helped in bringing the killing spree to a close but at an enormous price. Staggering humanitarian costs: The Indian army suffered thousands of casualties; around 10 million refugees flooded into India (most of whom never returned). I don’t know if anyone can reliably estimate th...more
I had originally planned to go to Chengdu but the plan was changed after the earthquake. I was in Nanjing for three days before arriving here, and it would have been great if there hadn’t been icy rain and raw weather for three days in a row. What can you do?
For whatever reasons, I feel more relaxed in Hangzhou than any other place in China. It’s just so beautiful, a perfect place for drinking tea and just sitting back and enjoying the scenery. I was in Beijing and Shanghai for a week, and it was anything but relaxing, just one interview after another. (If you’d like to see my interview with Xinhua News in Beijing from a few days ago, go here. That’s part one, with the second part to follow next week.)
This was a business trip, not recreation....more
Just a few years ago, pretty much everyone (except Chinese auto industry insiders whom I interviewed) thought China was about to take ownership of the global green car market. (Here's just one example from the excitable Tom Friedman of the New York Times.)In 2009 China's industrial planners announced plans to have 500,000 green cars ("New Energy Vehicles" or "新能源汽车" -- a combination of electrics and hybrids) on Chinese roads by the end of 2011. That obviously didn't happen, so last year, that same target of 500,000 was pushed out to 2015.So how did green car sales fare in 2012? Overall, hybrids plus electrics grew a respectable 52 percent.So while sales grew pretty well in percentage terms, it is clear that overall numbers are still inconsequential when you co...more
I wrote yesterday about growing questions in China about the differences between the U.S. reaction to the tragedy in Newtown and that of the tragedy in Henan Province, where, on the same say as the shooting in Connecticut, a man stabbed and slashed 23 students at a primary school. (All survived in Henan, where the weapon was a knife, not an AR-15.)
As a commentary piece in the state-controlled Global Times noted: “The Chinese public has focused on the slow official response and the level of social reflection. Many are furious that while the Americans have started mourning nationwide, the Chinese appear insensitive to the Henan case.”
Another story today, carried by China Daily, caught my attention. It describes an example of how profoundly off-key propaganda can ...more
Today's WSJ China Realtime reports on a study by a George Mason University economist who attempts to compare corruption in the US and China. His conclusion is that corruption in America's Gilded Age (1877-1893)* was worse than corruption in China today.Perhaps the conclusion is correct, but the methodology used by this professor is flawed. US corruption is measured by mentions of corruption in US newspapers 1870-1930. China corruption is measured by mentions of corruption in US (not Chinese!) newspapers 1990-2011.So he is measuring corruption in two countries by the number of times the newspapers of only one of the countries mentions the word. Even if the researcher had used Chinese newspapers, the study still would have been flawed due to Commun...more
General Motors (GM) and Shanghai Auto (SAIC) announced in December of 2009 that they were deepening their partnership beyond their joint venture in China. Together they created a 50:50 joint venture, registered in Hong Kong, for expansion outside of China. Now that partnership appears to be coming apart.Initially, the plan for the HK JV was for the two sides to work together in India and possibly elsewhere in the future. (For further insight into this particular deal, please see Chapter 4 of Designated Drivers.) As for the India venture, GM would contribute two existing factories in India, along with its Chevrolet brand, and SAIC would contribute cash -- something that GM had been seriously lacking as it had emerged from bankruptcy earlier that same ye...more
The natural reaction of a farmer to an increase in the price of a crop is to plant more of it for the following year. Supply and demand.
The difficulty comes in realising that you are not the only one thinking the same thing - the result is price bubbles leading to price crashes.
The role of the "middle man" or "supply chain" is particularly interesting in this story. Is this merely a lack of information on behlaf of the farmer? The introduction of widespread mobile phone technologies should help.
But what about the road tolls? There are some interesting economics to dig into here.
The Diplomat covers the story:
China’s Unhappy, Uneven Growth [The Diplomat]
../
But one incident stands out for me as representing an issue the government should be particularly...more
China is a thirsty country that needs a lot of water. To this end it is using a lot of dams in some very sensitive areas. There are a whole lot of "externalities" involved with dam production for those upstream, downstream and round about.
When those people live in different countries things can get messy quickly especially if two of those countries and China and India.
I like the concluding statement:
"Scarcity in a zero sum situation can lead to conflict but it can also goad countries into more cooperative behavior. It's a bleak picture, but I'm not without hope."
The author of the quote has more hope than I do - I can only guess that he is not an economist.
Water wars? Thirsty, energy-short China stirs fear [Yahoo]
BAHIR JONAI, India – The wall of water rac...more
The University of Birmingham's Director of the Business School, Professor David Dickinson reports on how he views recent developments in China's economy.
A sensible comment that touches on a number of issues that this blog has talked about in recent posts.
The Birmingham Brief
Is China’s economy a cause for concern?
Questioning China’s remarkable economic performance over the last 30 years seems to fly in the face of wisdom honed by decades of double digit growth. However, it is perfectly possible to explain China in the context of standard models of economic growth. Immigration of low-wage labour into the Eastern seaboard along with transfers of capital from Chinese Diaspora in Hong Kong, Taiwan and further afield, created the conditions for the ‘miracle’.
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Edward is a macro economist, who specializes in growth and productivity theory, demographic processes and their impact on macro performance, and the underlying dynamics of migration flows.
Edward is based in Barcelona, and is currently engaged in research on aging, longevity, fertility and migration, and the impact of all of these on economic growth. He is currently working on a book "Population, The Ultimate Non-renewable Resource?" He is a regular contributor to a number of economics weblogs, including India Economy Blog, A Fistful of Euros, Global Economy Matters and Demography Matters. He was, in fact, a founding member of all these weblogs.
Edward follows in detail the Indian, Italian, Spanish, German and Japanese economies. He has a more than a passing interest in the economies of Turkey and Brazil and in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe.
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