EconoMonitor

Economics Blog Aggregator

    United States

  • Econbrowser

    What have the nonpartisan research agencies ever done for us?

    (For the youth of today, here is the reference.) I see Americans for Tax Reform is against reappointment of Doug Elmendorf as CBO head. It is a remarkable document, insofar as it is so full of factual errors that the head spins. Montgomery at WaPo provides a point-by-point rebuttal of each of Grover Norquist’s assertions. Here’s a debunking of one of the most hysterical assertions: …the agency promotes a “Failed Keynesian Economic Analysis,” Norquist says, that asserts that “higher taxes are good for the economy, even to the point of implying that growth is maximized when tax rates are 100 percent.” Did the CBO really say that a 100 percent tax rate would be good for the economy? As evidence, Norquist points to a 2010 post by t...more

    Link ›

  • The Big Picture

    Kubrick Red Supercut

      Red: A Kubrick Supercut from Rishi Kaneria on Vimeo. via the Creators Project  

    Link ›

  • ProfessorBainbridge.com

    Walter Olson ties fee shifting bylaws to a broader debate over freedom of contract

    His excellent post begins: To the extent America has made progress in recent years in rolling back the extreme litigiousness of earlier years, one main reason has been the courts increased... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] ...more

    Link ›

  • ProfessorBainbridge.com

    As long as Presidents aren't enforcing laws, why not add a few from Dodd-Frank and Sarbanes-Oxley?

    In yesterday's WSJ, Kimberly Strassel had a great column on President Obama's decision to rewrite the nation's immigration law via "prosecutorial discretion." Her premise is that a Republican has won... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] ...more

    Link ›

  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Over at Equitable Growth: Hobson's Choice: (Late) Friday Focus

    Over at Equitable Growth: Paul Krugman: Inequality and Crises: Scandinavian Skepticism: "The ongoing question of whether rising inequality makes countries more vulnerable to financial crises... ...or in some other way degrades performance. I’ve been wary... in part because it appeals so much to my general leanings.... I continue to be skeptical, in part because there have been some pretty bad crises with lousy recoveries in countries that don’t have a lot of inequality. Consider, in particular, the post-1990 Swedish slump.... Just one piece of evidence. But I’m still having trouble with this one. The original argument was John A. Hobson's, in his 1902 book Imperialism. READ MOAR The poor have to spend their incomes in order to buy their necessities. Th...more

    Link ›

  • Calculated Risk

    Update: More 2015 Housing Forecasts

    Update: I've added the MBA and Goldman Sachs forecasts.  Also Wells Fargo updated their forecast (slight changes).Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like most analysts are optimistic for 2015.Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014. In 2014, new home sales will be around 440 thousand, and total housing starts will be close to 1 million.  No one was close on New Home sales (all way too optimistic), and Michelle Meyer (Merrill Lynch) and Fannie Mae were the closest on housing starts (about 10% too high).In 2014, many analysts underestimated the impact of higher mortgage rates and higher new home prices on new home sales and starts. Note: Here is a summary of forecasts for 2013. In 2013, new hom...more

    Link ›

  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Study That

    (Don Boudreaux) Here’s a line from this report in the New York Times; I add emphasis to that part of the line that is most germane to this blog post: Studies show that simply raising the price of an alcoholic beverage by 10 percent reduces alcohol consumption by 7 percent, suggesting that higher taxes on alcohol could make a significant dent in excessive drinking. Is anyone surprised by this finding?  I’m not.  I have no doubt that any increase in the cost to consumers of acquiring alcoholic beverages reduces the consumption of those beverages from what that consumption would have been had the cost of alcoholic beverages not risen.  I’m much less certain about the seven-percent finding.  It could be accurate for the time period that was studied...more

    Link ›

  • The Big Picture

    Govt Spending: Jobs & Education vs War & Social Security

    Shocking what many people support is a function of age:   Via Vox

    Link ›

  • Economist's View

    'High Marginal Tax Rates on the Top 1%'

    Fabian Kindermann and Dirk Krueger: High marginal tax rates on the top 1%: Optimal tax rates for the rich are a perennial source of controversy. This column argues that high marginal tax rates on the top 1% of earners can make society as a whole better off. Not knowing whether they would ever make it into the top 1%, but understanding it is very unlikely, households especially at younger ages would happily accept a life that is somewhat better most of the time and significantly worse in the rare event they rise to the top 1%. Recently, public and scientific attention has been drawn to the increasing share of labour earnings, income, and wealth accruing to the so-called ‘top 1%’. Robert B. Reich in his 2009 book Aftershock opines that: “Concentration of income and ...more

    Link ›

  • Econbrowser

    Some Observations on the Wisconsin Employment Outlook

    The Walker Administration’s Economic Outlook forecasts private employment in January 2015 will be 115 thousand below the goal set forth by Governor Walker in August 2013. Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment will not reattain prior peak levels until 2015Q2. Figure 1 depicts how far employment is lagging Walker’s pledge, even by the Administration’s forecast. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment (red), forecast from November 2014 Wisconsin Economic Outlook, quadratic match interpolation (green), trend consistent with Governor Walker’s August 2013 pledge to create 250,000 net new private sector jobs (gray). Source: BLS, Wisconin Economic Outlook (November 2014), Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (August 2013), and author’s calculations. Th...more

    Link ›

  • Economist's View

    'The Risks to the Inflation Outlook'

    Remember all those predictions from those with other agendas about runaway inflation (e.g. see Paul Krugman today on The Wisdom of Peter Schiff)?: The Risks to the Inflation Outlook, by Vasco Cúrdia, FRBSF Economic Letter: The Federal Reserve responded to the recent financial crisis and the Great Recession by aggressively cutting the target for its benchmark short-term interest rate, known as the federal funds rate, to near zero. The Fed also began providing information about the probable future path of the short-term interest rate. Known as forward guidance, this policy is intended to lead to lower long-term yields and therefore stimulate economic activity. Additionally, the Fed has purchased long-term Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities, leading to a...more

    Link ›

  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    Brazil (China) fact of the day

    From 1967 to 1980, Brazil grew at an average annual rate of 5.2 per cent. Few would have predicted, then, that for the next 22 years per capita income would grow at precisely zero. That is from David Pilling at the FT, who considers China as well.  And here is part of the first comment on the article, from Danny Quah: Success, by definition, means being different from the mean. For economic growth the quantitative implications of such success (or even apparent failure) are laid out in http://blogs.worldbank.org/futuredevelopment/chinese-lessons-singapore-s-epic-regression-mean. Sure China’s continued growth faces manifold obstacles but many of those problems are not insurmountable http://www.boaoreview.com/perspective/2013/1115/296.html The pointer here is from H...more

    Link ›

  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Two Notes on Immigration

    (Don Boudreaux) Here are two notes on immigration.  The first is from my treasured libertarian friend Frayda Levin; it’s a letter of hers that appears in today’s edition of the New York Times: To the Editor: “Immigration Has Republican Governors Seething and Facing Practical Challenges” (news article, Nov. 20) describes the Republican governors’ dilemma if President Obama grants protection to millions of illegal immigrants. Gov. Paul R. LePage of Maine, who adopted a boy from Jamaica, is quoted as saying “it took us nearly 11 years” to get a green card for his son. He then irrationally states, “Why should everybody just get one tomorrow?” A more reasonable — and empathetic — response would be, “No one should have to go through the 11 ye...more

    Link ›

  • Paul Krugman

    The Wisdom of Peter Schiff

    Link ›

  • Calculated Risk

    Schedule for Week of November 23rd

    This will be a short, but busy holiday week. The key reports this week are the second estimate of Q3 GDP, October New Home sales, October personal income and outlays, and September Case-Shiller house prices.For manufacturing, the November Dallas and Richmond Fed surveys will be released this week.Also, the NY Fed Q3 Report on Household Debt and Credit will be released on Tuesday.----- Monday, November 24th -----8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for November.----- Tuesday, November 25th-----8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2014 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 3rd quarter 2014 (preliminary estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased...more

    Link ›

  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    The Bill Cosby Collection

    It doesn’t sound quite right to still call it that, does it?  In any case it is on display at the National Museum of African Art.  At least two-thirds of the collection is lame and maybe a third or somewhat less is wonderful.  Cosby for instance has excellent works by Jacob Lawrence, Horace Pippin, Minnie Evans, Henry Ossawa Tanner, (and here), Romare Bearden, some amazing quilts and textiles (try here too), and quality African ethnographic pieces.  The works by lesser-known creators are mostly sentimental junk with lots of gloppy paint and hackneyed historical themes, or perhaps a maudlin portrait of some kind. My hypothesis is simple: in any collecting area where price is a sufficient statistic for quality, Cosby did well by paying top dollar, or at least by...more

    Link ›

  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Noted for Your Morning Procrastination for November 22, 2014

    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog Alice Rivlin: People Who Wanted Market-Driven Health Care Now Have it in the Affordable Care Act Steve Teles: Restrain Regressive Rent-Seeking Danny Vinik: Peter Schiff: My Inflation Prediction Was Correct. The Stats Are Lying Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher: Re/code Removes Comments Plus: Things to Read on the Morning of November 22, 2014 Must- and Shall-Reads: Dean Baker: Quick, Some Meaningless Budget Numbers from the NYT Bridget Ansel: Ryan Sakoda and Shayak Sarkar on the changing dynamics of economic inequality and for-profit universities Alice Rivlin: People Who Wanted Market-Driven Health Care Now Have it in the Affordable Care Act Steven Teles: Restrain Regressive Rent-Seeking Danny Vinik: Peter Schiff: My Inflat...more

    Link ›

  • The Big Picture

    MiB: Robert Shiller

    This week’s Masters in Business Radio show at 10:00 am and 6:00 pm on Bloomberg Radio 1130AM and Siriux XM 119 (it also repeats all weekend). Our guest this week is Yale professor of economics and Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller. You can listen to the show live here. You can download the 1 hour 8 minute podcast at Bloomberg.com. Sometime after the show broadcasts, you can stream it at Soundcloud or download it on iTunes. (All of the prior Podcasts are now on Apple iTunes). Next week, we have Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI.     ...more

    Link ›

  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Morning Must-Read: Alice Rivlin: People Who Wanted Market-Driven Health Care Now Have it in the Affordable Care Act

    Alice Rivlin: People Who Wanted Market-Driven Health Care Now Have it in the Affordable Care Act: "That all sounds complicated, inconvenient and unfair... ...What have these 'socialist Democrats' done to us? But wait a minute: Isn't that how markets are supposed to work? The United States never adopted a simple national health plan to cover everyone.... In general, Republicans argued that relying on market forces would give people what they wanted while also putting pressure on the health system to offer more effective care for less money.... In general, Democrats argued that government should set benefits and the prices it would pay, as in a 'Medicare for all' program.... They pointed out that markets didn't work well in health care because consumers didn't know en...more

    Link ›

  • Beat the Press

    Falling Interest Rates and Rising Stock Prices Can be Related

    Link ›

  • Beat the Press

    The Congressional Budget Office Has Consistently Over-Estimated the Cost of Obamacare

    Link ›

  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Henry Spearman Cracks the Case Again

    (Don Boudreaux) In today’s Wall Street Journal, I review the fourth installment – The Mystery of the Invisible Hand - in Marshall Jevons’s economics murder-mystery series.  A slice: The breakthrough in the case comes when Spearman’s students present the results of their research on the economics of the art market. Among the insights they offer is an analysis of the “death effect” on the value of art: When an artist dies, he or she stops producing, so prices of the artist’s existing works rise. The students’ critical insight is that the size of this effect on prices is greatest when an artist dies in middle age. Too few people care enough about the works of young, unknown artists to bid up their prices very steeply when such artists die; a...more

    Link ›

  • Calculated Risk

    Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 411 Institutions

    This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Nov 21, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: The OCC provided an update on its latest enforcement action activity that resulted in several removals from the Unofficial Problem Bank List. For the week, there were four removals that push the list count to 411 institutions with assets of $126.6 billion. A year ago, there were 654 institutions with assets of $222.8 billion.The OCC terminated actions against Queensborough National Bank & Trust Company, Louisville, GA ($808 million); First Bank Richmond, National Association, Richmond, IN ($495 million); and First National Bank, Groesbeck, TX ($55 million). Texas Savings Bank, Snyder, TX ...more

    Link ›

  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    McCloskey on Piketty

    A long, discursive, and compelling review essay.

    Link ›

  • Fabius Maximus

    “Disasters & Climate Change”, an important new book illuminating the debate

    Link ›

  • naked capitalism

    Links 11/22/14

    Link ›

  • The Capital Spectator

    Book Bits | 22 November 2014

    Link ›

  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    Six Months Ago Buyers Were Being Unrealistic

    It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Through the first 10 months of the year, sales in the Triangle are up 2 percent compared with the same period in 2013. While prices have inched up over the past year, the increases haven’t been substantial enough to entice a larger number of sellers to put their homes up for sale. The average sales price of the homes that sold in October was about $250,000, up 1 percent from a year ago. ‘There’s been a lot of people staying in houses because their values haven’t recovered from 2008 enough,’ said Ed Willer, an agent with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices York Simpson Underwood Realty in Raleigh. ‘The economy overall is just not back yet.’” “Many would-be buyers in the Tr...more

    Link ›

  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    The middle class migration out of California: While domestic migration is up, foreign migration is filling the gap.

    Link ›

  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    Bits Bucket for November 22, 2014

    Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.

    Link ›

  • Economist's View

    Links for 11-22-14

    Patents and the global diffusion of new drugs - Vox EU Keynes's Theories Can Fix the World Economy - Businessweek Inequality and Crises: Scandinavian Skepticism - Paul Krugman Economic inequality and for-profit universities - Bridget Ansel The butterfly defect: How to manage systemic risk - Vox EU Central banks: Stockholm syndrome - FT.com India Rebounding? - Tim Taylor Why workers matter - Stumbling and Mumbling Top incomes soared as tax rates fell - David Cay Johnston Solving the depression in the eurozone - Biagio Bossone, et. al. Postage Stamps Portray Banking History - Liberty Street Economics Scabs, Scantrons, and Strikes at the University of Oregon - Crooked Timber ...more

    Link ›

  • naked capitalism

    Wolf Richter: Signs That the Startup Bubble is Totally Maxed Out

    Link ›

  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    Assorted links

    1. When does the peak of emotional life occur? 2. Paul Krugman advising Japan. 3. What would a Ukrainian financial meltdown look like? 4. Bobsled desegregation. 5. The coming global domination of chicken? 6. How public pay phones are evolving. ...more

    Link ›

  • naked capitalism

    Elizabeth Warren Blasts New York Fed President William Dudley

    Link ›

  • Beat the Press

    NYT Abandons Distinction Between News and Editorial Page to Push Trade Deal

    Link ›

  • Paul Krugman

    Friday Night Music: Jessica Hernandez and the Deltas

    Link ›

  • All HW content

    $4.8 billion portfolio of Fannie, Freddie MSRs hits market

    Link ›

  • All HW content

    Want a free Bentley? Sell this house

    Link ›

  • All HW content

    SEC grants Bank of America relief in $16 billion settlement

    Link ›

  • Paul Krugman

    Inequality and Crises: Scandinavian Skepticism

    Link ›

  • Fabius Maximus

    What does the health care debate reveal about us, and our future?

    Link ›

  • The Capital Spectator

    Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: Oct 2014 Preview

    Link ›

  • The Capital Spectator

    Markets Review | 21 November 2014

    Link ›

  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    Bits Bucket for November 21, 2014

    Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.

    Link ›

  • Fabius Maximus

    William Lind: thoughts about 4GW, why we lose, and how we can win in the future

    Link ›

  • macroblog

    For Middle-Skill Occupations, Where Have All the Workers Gone?

    .citation { font-style: italic; } .byline { font-style: italic; } .centeredImage { display: block !important; margin-left: auto !important; margin-right: auto !important; } Considerable discussion in recent years has concerned the “hollowing out of the middle class.” Part of that story revolves around the loss of the types of jobs that traditionally have been the core of the U.S. economy: so-called middle-skill jobs. These jobs, based on the methodology of David Autor, consist of office and administrative occupations; sales jobs; operators, fabricators, and laborers; and production, craft, and repair personnel (many of whom work in the manufacturing industry). In this post, we don't examine why the decline in middle-skill jobs has ...more

    Link ›

  • Rick Bookstaber

    On Death with Dignity

    We take the will to live as a positive attribute, and naturally so; it is, of course in our genes.  Whatever subset of our species took a lackadaisical view toward the prospect of death was screened out long ago. We look with admiration on those who battle against terminal illness --  “She’s a real fighter” -- and look down on those who take their own lives. Fighting for your life is the genetic prime directive.   Thus the recent death of Brittany Maynard spurred a flurry of news articles and posts on the Death with Dignity movement. There will be a lot more to come on this topic, and the movement will gather steam because whatever is in the crosshairs of the baby boomers weighs down on society as a whole. Soon the baby boomers will come to the...more

    Link ›

  • ProfessorBainbridge.com

    Usha Rodrigues on fee shifting bylaws

    Typically excellent post. Kind words about yours truly an added bonus. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

    Link ›

  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    New Residential Construction Report: October 2014

    Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results with total permit activity improving while total start activity declined since September.Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 1.4% from September to 640K single family units (SAAR), and increased 2.4% above the level seen in October 2013 but still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005. ...more

    Link ›

  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – November 19 2014

    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) decreased 3 basis points to 4.04% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 12% and the refinance application volume...more

    Link ›

  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    You can’t afford to live in California: Only 30 percent of families can afford to purchase a home in California. Over 80 percent of California unaffordable on a teacher’s salary.

    Link ›

  • Econbrowser

    The Japanese GDP Release: The Bad and the Not so Bad

    Instead of a 0.2% q/q increase as in the WSJ survey, GDP declined 0.4% [0] [1] It’s pretty bad news, but here are a couple of observations, following up on my previous post on Japan. Figure 1: Log GDP (blue) and consumption (red), in Ch.05¥, normalized to 2012Q4=0. Source: Cabinet Office, and author’s calculations. First, the drop is in output is definitely not a positive development. However, the good news is that the negative news should certainly solidify support for delaying the second part of the consumption tax increase. It should also rein in resistance to the expansionary monetary policy pushed by BoJ Governor Kuroda (well, I’m guessing — I’m not an expert on the intricacies of the BoJ). What I find interesting is that exports, wh...more

    Link ›

  • Robert Reich

    And Now the Richest .01 Percent

    Link ›

  • The Baseline Scenario

    Obamacare, Taxes, United Airlines, and My Tea Infuser

    Link ›

  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    The condo alternative pitch: Tiny homes in Pasadena continue to hit the market for first time home buyers.

    Link ›

  • Macro and Other Market Musings

    Another Look at Neo-Fisherism

    Link ›

  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    Elmendorf for CBO Director

    Roll Call speculates about who the next director of the Congressional Budget Office might be. This is a key decision facing the newly elected GOP-controlled Congress. After giving a talk at CBO on Thursday and participating in its Academic Advisers Panel on Friday, I am reminded how impressive the CBO staff is and how important the institution is to the policy process. (FYI, my own affiliation with CBO dates back to the summer of 1978, when I was an intern there.)So who should the next CBO director be? There are a lot of reputable economists on the Roll Call list. Many are friends of mine. All things considered, however, I believe there is a clear choice: Doug Elmendorf.Someon...more

    Link ›

  • macroblog

    A Closer Look at Employment and Social Insurance

    The Atlanta Fed's Center for Human Capital Studies hosted its annual employment conference on October 2–3, 2014, organized once again by Richard Rogerson of Princeton University, Robert Shimer of the University of Chicago, and the Atlanta Fed's Melinda Pitts. This macroblog post summarizes some of the discussions. Social insurance programs in the United States and other developed countries represent a large and growing share of expenditures relative to gross domestic product (GDP). Assessing the costs and benefits of the diverse programs that make up the U.S. social insurance system is a key input into the design and implementation of effective programs. This conference featured seven papers that dealt with various aspects of this assessment. Although each progra...more

    Link ›

  • Tim Duy's Fed Watch

    Dudley, Plosser, JOLTS, Potential Output

    Not enough time to do any of these topics justice, but some quick takeaways for the last two days. First, read today's speech by Federal Reserve President William Dudley in which he discusses the global implications of US monetary policy. Some keys points: 1. Still dismissing the recent drop in inflation expectations. Dudley says: In assessing inflation expectations, I currently put more weight on survey-based measures of inflation expectations as opposed to market-based measures.  Survey-based measures have been generally stable, consistent with inflation expectations remaining well-anchored.  However, market-based measures, such as those based on breakeven inflation derived from the difference between yields on nominal versus Treasury Inflation-Protected Securitie...more

    Link ›

  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    Tax Fact of the Day

    Source. Click on graphic to enlarge.

    Link ›

  • Robert Reich

    The Choice of the Century

    Link ›

  • macroblog

    Wage Growth of Part-Time versus Full-Time Workers: Evidence from the CPS

    Last week, our Atlanta Fed colleagues Lei Fang and Pedro Silos highlighted the wage growth trends of full-time and part-time workers in recent years. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), they showed relatively weak growth in hourly wages of part-time workers between 2011 and 2013. The Current Population Survey (CPS)—administered jointly by the Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—also contains wage information and has data through September 2014. We thought it would be interesting to see if the CPS data revealed a similar post-recession pattern, and if the more recent data show any sign of improvement. The short answer is that they do. The following chart displays the median year-over-y...more

    Link ›

  • Tim Duy's Fed Watch

    Employment Report, Yellen Speech

    The October employment report was another solid albeit not spectacular read on the labor market.  Job growth remained above the 200k mark, extending the ever-so-slight acceleration over the past year: Upward revisions to the previous two months added another 31k jobs.  The acceleration is a bit more evident in the year-over-year picture, albeit still modest: The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% while the labor force participation rate ticked up.  The labor market picture in the context of indicators previously cited by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen looks like this: Looks like steady, ongoing progress to meeting the Federal Reserve's goals that remains fairly consistent with expectations for a mid-year rate hike. Wage growth remains anemic, but as regular read...more

    Link ›

  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment October 2014

    Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 214,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 209,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment rate declined declined to 5.8% over the same period.Net private sector jobs increased 0.18% since last month climbing 2.24% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 1.82% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession. ...more

    Link ›

  • Tim Duy's Fed Watch

    Nonsense

    I stumbled across this piece in The America Spectator in which the authors argue against the prospect of the Federal Reserve pursuing a "triple mandate" by adding inequality to the current mandate of price stability and maximum employment. They claim the current mandate itself is unworkable: ...Replace the Fed’s current dual mandate with a single mandate—keep the price system as honest and stable as possible. The dual mandate creates a contradictory tension that makes it practically impossible for the Fed to function effectively... ...The Fed currently finds itself unable to pursue that kind of price stability, because its unemployment mandate gets in the way. The Fed can induce a temporary boom by unexpectedly boosting inflation... ...If the Fed tinkers with inte...more

    Link ›

  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    Jung Hyun Choi and I write about Income Inequality across Cities.

    We will be presenting at APPAM:This paper investigates why the level of income inequality differs across U.S. cites. We alsoexplore why some cities experienced faster increases in the level of inequality than others.Using the Decennial Census and the American Community Survey (ACS) from 1980 to 2011,we explore whether the disparities in the level and the changes in the level of inequality canbe explained by MSA characteristics, including labor market conditions, skill distribution,residential mobility, racial concentration, industrial composition and unionization. We alsoexamine how state level policies such as unemployment insurance benefits and minimumwage level is associated with income inequality.Our findings hows that negative labor market conditions, concentration...more

    Link ›

  • Robert Reich

    The Republican War on Women If Republicans take over Congress on...

    Link ›

  • The Baseline Scenario

    A Conference On Finance For Everyone Else

    Link ›

  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    How people who can't do math get shafted.

    I have a car (an Accord, if you must know) that is 17 months old.  When I bought the car, the dealer offered me a car loan at 0 percent interest for 36 months, so I took it.  Even in the world of very low discount rates, accepting the loan allowed me to get a further small effective discount on the car.The dealer called me today, saying I could trade the car in for a new car and not increase my payment; the payment would simply reset for 36 months.  I told him I needed to do a little math before calling him back.  The math I did was as follows:Value of Old Car from Kelly Blue Book + PV of 36 months of payments = Cost of New Car.Cost of New Car - Edmunds Value of New Car = $6000.Yes, the dealer was trying to fool me into paying $6000 for...nothin...more

    Link ›

  • The Street Light

    Transfer Pricing Economics

    I'd like to announce that after a long hiatus from blogging, I'm taking it up again in a new forum.  The new blog, Transfer Pricing Economics, is primarily devoted to exploring my particular area of professional specialty, namely "transfer pricing".  If that term doesn't mean anything to you, then feel free to check out my brief explanation of transfer pricing. My aim is to expose and analyze the connections between the arcane world of transfer pricing and broader developments in the economic and financial world. And the connections are significant: the rules and economic logic of transfer pricing have a direct impact on trillions of dollars of international trade every year. So please feel free to check in on and contribute to the discussions about these...more

    Link ›

  • Rick Bookstaber

    Ex Ante versus Ex Post Social Policy

    I have written various posts on social policy related to the question of whether and how we redistribute income. One argument of equal opportunity and social egalitarianism is that it is fair to control for the randomness of life. For example, take the luck of the draw in who your parents are. If your best career choice was to be born into a wealthy family, if you got ahead because your father could pull strings to get you an internship at a big investment bank; because you built up your high school resume by spending a summer building houses in Tibet while a classmate had to spend the summer working at the 7-11; or because you could afford two years of one-on-one tutoring for the SAT, the result might be to score higher in an objective standard of selection and have a ...more

    Link ›

  • The Baseline Scenario

    No, You Can’t Get a Drink at 5 AM

    Link ›

  • Rick Bookstaber

    My Recent Work on Agent-based Modeling

    As is obvious by looking at the time span between recent posts, I have not been active in blogging. I am planning to get back into things.  As a start, to help catch up on what I have been doing, here are a couple of papers and a presentation I recently made on the area of my focus, using agent-based modeling to help assess financial vulnerabilities.The model is presented here.For a concise presentation on the model and its application you can look at a talk I did in August at the Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences at Cambridge University.  (Despite what is suggested by the venue, I did the presentation mathlessly).Related to the model is work I have been doing to develop a map of sorts for the key agents in the financial system and the ways in wh...more

    Link ›

  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Services, manufacturing, and new growth strategies

    I gave a talk yesterday on New Growth Strategies at the World Bank, which was more or less an elaboration of this short piece. I argued that industrialization had pretty much run out of steam as a growth strategy, that services would need to be the focus going forward, and that this required in turn a different policy mindset about how to increase productivity. In particular, I argued that policies focusing on generating a sequence of sectoral “winners,” which worked so  well in manufacturing (garments to car seats to cars to electronics), would have much smaller payoff in services, in view of the non-tradability of most service segments. I suggested further that, even under the best of circumstances, a services-oriented strategy would yield lower growth than ...more

    Link ›

  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    September 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

    Link ›

  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    The Return of Voodoo Economics

    Paul Krugman’s column in the New York Times today talked of the revival of “Voodoo economics” by some Republican politicians.  This refers to the Laffer Proposition that a cut in income tax rates stimulates economic activity so much that tax revenue goes up rather than down.   Gov. Sam Brownback, who is running for re-election in Kansas, has had to confront the reality that tax revenues went down, not up as he argued they would, when he cut state tax rates. I disagree with one thing that Krugman wrote in his column: the idea that there was a long break,  particularly after George W. Bush took office, during which Republican politicians did not push this line.  To the contrary, I have collected many quotes from George W. Bush and his top officials claiming the...more

    Link ›

  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    How the price of a Martini reveals the property value of a city

    A Hendricks Gibson is basically a commodity (although the bartender does need to know what she is doing). But a good Gibson at the Starlight Lounge in LaCrosse, Wisconsin is $8; at the Roof Garden at the Peninsula Hotel in Beverly Hills is $16; at the King Cole Bar of the St. Regis Hotel in New York is $22. Let's say the cost of the cocktail, including labor, but exclusive of real estate, is $7. Then the implicit rent you are paying for sitting in a bar in LaCrosse is $1; in Beverly Hills on a rooftop is $9; and in NYC is $15. If one consults Zillow, one will find that this ratio of 1:9:15 for real estate in LaCrosse, BH and Manhattan is pretty close to the truth.One key thing--all these drinks are served in competitive markets--there is true thickness in bars in t...more

    Link ›

  • Macro and Other Market Musings

    The Love Affair Conservatives Should Be Having

    Link ›

  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    Piketty’s Fence

    Most of the reviews of Thomas Piketty’s book Capital in the Twenty-First Century have already been written.  But I thought it might be best to read it all the way through before offering my own thoughts on this book, which startlingly rose to the top of the best seller lists last April.  It has taken me five months, but I finished it. One of the things the book has in common with the Karl Marx’s Das Capital (1867) is that it serves as a rallying point for the many people who are passionately concerned about inequality, regardless whether they understand or agree with the specific arguments contained in the book in question.  To be fair, much of what Marx wrote was bizarre and very little was based on careful economic statistics.  Much of what Piketty says is ba...more

    Link ›

  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    August 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

    Link ›

  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Back to sanity on economic convergence

    It’s been interesting to watch how the conventional wisdom on rapid convergence – developing countries closing the gap with the advanced economies – has been changing over the last few years. It wasn’t so long ago that the world was in the grips of emerging-markets mania, projecting wildly optimistic growth numbers decades into the future. For the last 4-5 years, I have been writing that the pace of convergence we have experienced over the last two decades is unsustainable. There were temporary factors (cheap capital, low interest rates, high commodity prices, rapid Chinese expansion) which would begin to reverse themselves. And perhaps most importantly, export-oriented industrialization was running out of steam much earlier, even in the relatively successful co...more

    Link ›

  • Macro and Other Market Musings

    Another Bond Market Conundrum?

    Link ›

  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    Modi, Sisi & Jokowi: Three New Leaders Face the Challenge of Food & Fuel Subsidies

    In few policy areas does good economics seem to conflict so dramatically with good politics as in the practice of subsidies to food and energy.  Economics textbooks explain that these subsidies are lose-lose policies. In the political world that can sound like an ivory tower abstraction.   But the issue of unaffordable subsidies happens to be front and center politically now, in a number of places around the world.   Three major new leaders in particular are facing this challenge:  Sisi in Egypt, Jokowi in Indonesia, and Modi in India. The Egyptian leader is doing a much better job of facing up to the need to cut subsidies than one might have expected.  India’s new prime minister, by contrast, is doing worse than expected – even torpedoing a long-anticipated ...more

    Link ›

  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    July 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

    Link ›

  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    My moonlighting career of the last 4 years

    At long last, Turkey's consitutional court has reversed the conviction of the more than 200 officers previously found guilty in the bogus Sledgehammer coup plot, leading to the release on June 19th of all those in jail (including my father in law). Even though a retrial is to take place, the ruling is a coda to the last four-and-a-half years during which my wife and I moonlighted as criminal investigator, forensic analyst, and political activist. It has been a truly surreal and bizarre experience, given how so many intelligent people bought into -- and refused let go of -- a coup plot that was patently fictitious.     So I thought this would be a good time to post a longish account of my involvement in the story. I wrote it as much to make sense of it to...more

    Link ›

  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Farewell

    In memoriam: Gary S. Becker, 1930-2014. The Becker-Posner blog is terminated. Richard A. Posner

    Link ›

  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Sabbatical Notice

    Starting this weekend, we will be taking a one-month sabbatical from blogging. We will resume at the end of that period.

    Link ›

  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    The Embargo of Cuba: Time to Go- Becker

    The US embargo of Cuba began in 1960, a year after Fidel Castro turned this island toward communism. It was extended to food and medicines in 1962, the same year as the showdown with Russia over the installation of missiles there. The embargo has prevented American companies from doing business with Cuba, and discouraged tourism to Cuba. The American government also tried with quite limited success to prevent other countries from trading with Cuba. In general economic embargoes are undesirable because they interfere with free trade among countries. Yet a case could be made for an embargo against Cuba. Castro not only allowed Russian missiles to be installed in Cuba, just 90 miles from Florida, but was also actively trying to interfere in other countries by sending troop...more

    Link ›

  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Capital Gains And Games Now Being Published By Forbes

    Link ›

  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Big Changes Are Coming To Capital Gains And Games

    Link ›

  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Camp Plan Puts Nail In Tax Reform Coffin For This Year, And Next, And...

    Link ›

  • democracyarsenal.org

    Can the F-35 Replace the A-10?

    by Nickolai Sukharev  One of the big decisions the United States Air Force has considered over the last few months is whether to retire the A-10 Thunderbolt II fleet as a cost saving measure while developing and procuring the F-35A Lightening II. Given the Budget Control Act caps on Pentagon spending and the need to better allocate funds, officials have expressed their preference to prioritize multi-mission platforms in the inventory. But the problem is that the F-35A is not a replacement for the A-10’s close air support. The reason is simple: it lacks comparable capabilities despite a higher operating cost. Given the constrained budgetary environment, the comparative cost to maintain and operate the two aircraft should be a decisive consideration. The A-10 is a...more

    Link ›

  • democracyarsenal.org

    After Geneva Talks A Consensus on Moving Forward

    By Homa Hassan The two-day round of P5+1 negotiations with Iran just concluded in Geneva and Western diplomats are carefully reviewing a detailed proposal presented by Iran. As this proposal is being reviewed ahead of the follow-on meetings in November it is important to look at what the realistic prospects of a deal will look like. Going into this week’s talks, a number of commentaries came out attempting to set negotiations up for failure. However, it is widely agreed that a negotiated solution to Iran’s controversial nuclear program is the best way to achieve a sustainable solution and a recent survey of reports and recommendations from bipartisan think tanks and high-level experts demonstrates a broad consensus on how to approach negotiations a...more

    Link ›

  • democracyarsenal.org

    TPP, TTIP and Getting America's Competitiveness Back on Track

    By Marcela Heywood Last week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bali, Indonesia marked further progress for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and set an ambitious goal to finish negotiations by the end of the year. Although the U.S. government shutdown – and President Obama’s absence in Bali – did not hinder the trade talks, it did call America’s credibility into question. Government shutdown could threaten both TPP and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations by displaying uncertainty in U.S. economic and foreign policy priorities. Congress needs to reach an agreement and prioritize TPP and TTIP, as they are necessary policy initiatives to boost American competitiveness, stimulate the economy, and exert soft power to cr...more

    Link ›

  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-09

    Given that I block NSA & PRISM tweets, was entertaining tuning into twitter & trying to figure why everyone was on about Lord Snowdon -> Turned on GoT tonight just in time to catch Daenerys reenacting her Level 2 YMCA gymnastics pageant. -> How Not to Be Alone | Jonathan Safran Foer – http://t.co/HMFxg75lfh http://t.co/DzAtvWBQJr -> Excellent, but fellow sports-med geeks only: Sports and exercise-related tendinopathies: a review – http://t.co/WGkhRlO6Uz -> ...more

    Link ›

  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-07

    Photo-set: Flooding Across Central Europe – http://t.co/8G6j8teCbd -> CDC Update: Severe Respiratory Illness Associated with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus – http://t.co/hWqN1338VN -> Col Flagg: Have you ever heard of Malaysian Chest Implosion Torture? Radar: No. Coll Flagg: Good. It hasn’t been invented… yet. -> tl;dr: There are Manchurian Candidate engineers at large tech cos that have stolen SSL root cert and NSA is using it for cattle mutilation. -> Brian: …Will you please listen? I'm not the Messiah! Do you understand? Honestly Woman: Only the true Messiah denies his divinity! -> ...more

    Link ›

  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-05

    FRED: Free Energy Data – http://t.co/90H7GVDazO -> Solipsisms ‘r’ us, courtesy of my friends at @thinkup: I apparently mention me a lot – http://t.co/9rTRXvBM9D -> Almost 10,000 words on soccer/Italy/economics/racism by @wrightthompson? Yes, & it’s super. Go. http://t.co/g4sgEFLkIC -> When The Beautiful Game Turns Ugly: A journey into the world of Italy's racist soccer thugs http://t.co/nckrbeLPfs -> Can’t remember last time I read an OpEd or column. Do those still exist? -> ...more

    Link ›

  • The Street Light

    Cyprus and Eurozone Bank Deposits

    To me, the central issue raised by this week's Cyprus debacle is how it has affected confidence across the eurozone.  To what degree has the possibility of insured depositors at a eurozone bank losing a portion of their deposits affected the mindset of depositors?  To what degree has ECB acquiescence to this possibility undermined the notion that deposit insurance in the eurozone means the same thing in all countries?  And to what degree has the ECB's direct threat to end support for Cyprus's banking system in the event that the government of Cyprus can not arrange sufficient funds to meet its conditions made a farce of its earlier promise to "do whatever it takes to preserve the euro"?These, to me, are the interesting questions prompted by this week's ev...more

    Link ›

  • The Street Light

    When the Fed Chair is an Academic

    The big economic news of the week was, in fact, big economic news: the Fed's announcement of significant changes from past practice in the the quantity of its next round of large scale asset purchases ("unlimited"), and in the timing of any future reversal of this expansionary policy ("a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens").I view this as a pretty fundamental shift in how the Fed hopes to affect the economy.  Rather than trying to push economic activity one way or the other through its management of interest rates (which can alter economic activity through its portfolio-rebalancing and wealth effects, for example), the Fed is now quite explicitly trying to affect economic activity by altering interest rate and inflation expectations.  As...more

    Link ›

  • TPMCafe

    Message to world government: Don't govern the Internet

    You could think of the Aspen IDEA report published today as a letter to the head of the International Telecommunications Union, Hamadoun Touré, suggesting that he should reconsider his intent to put the "light touch" of government on the Internet's operations. M. Touré will be running a major meeting of world governments in Dubai at the end of this year. The Dubai meeting, known as WCIT 12, may have an agenda that is a light touch only if that's what you can call a grab for the jugular vein of the Internet. The issues may include a "per click" tax on international Internet traffic, individual nation state regulation identities to online activity, national encryption standards to allow government surveillance, and multinational governance of the Internet. Russia, Chi...more

    Link ›

  • TPMCafe

    Obama and Romney on Foreign Policy - Drawing the Contrasts

    The political battle lines are being drawn for the general election debate over foreign policy and national security, and you can't do much better than my fellow Democracy Arsenal blogger Michael Cohen for a guide. One key theme of Michael's latest column for ForeignPolicy.com is what a difference it makes for a candidate to bear the responsibility of governing, or on the other hand, campaign to be commander in chief on the basis of self-serving pot shots. My only quibble regards how Romney's reed-thin foreign policy argument will fare with voters. Take Michael's analysis of Romney's potential advantage in the debate on Iran: He can simply lob rhetorical haymakers that hype up the threat of an Iranian bomb or offer Churchillian declarations about his intention to stop...more

    Link ›

  • TPMCafe

    Will Yale's Alumni Save Liberal Education?

    Hoping to head off alumni resistance to the brand-new "Yale-National University of Singapore" college that the Yale Corporation has created somewhat stealthily in collaboration with the government of that authoritarian city-state, Association of Yale Alumni chairman Michael Madison has inadvertently demonstrated one of the ways Yale College is being transformed from a crucible of civic-republican leadership, grounded in liberal education, into a global career-networking center and cultural galleria for a new elite that answers to no polity or moral code: STATEMENT OF THE OFFICERS OF THE AYA BOARD OF GOVERNORS, Michael Madison, Chair of the Board "All Yale-NUS College graduates will be warmly welcomed as a part of the Yale alumni community. They will also be invited...more

    Link ›


Most Read | Featured | Popular

Blogger Spotlight

Emre Deliveli The Kapali Carsi

Emre Deliveli is a freelance consultant, part-time lecturer in economics and columnist. Previously, Emre worked as economist for Citi Istanbul, covering Turkey and the Balkans. He was previously Director of Economic Studies at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey in Ankara and has has also worked at the World Bank, OECD, McKinsey and the Central Bank of Turkey. Emre holds a B.A., summa cum laude, from Yale University and undertook his PhD studies at Harvard University, in Economics.

Economics Blog Aggregator

Our favorite economics blogs aggregated.