EconoMonitor

Economics Blog Aggregator

    United States

  • ProfessorBainbridge.com

    Negative versus positive rights

    Josh Blackman tweets a link to a post he wrote on how the debate between positive and negative rights has played out in the debate over Obamacare: Halbig and Two Conceptions of Liberty: At its core,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] ...more

    Link ›

  • All HW content

    Buckley Madole adds Stephen Hicklin as senior litigation counsel

    Link ›

  • The Big Picture

    10 Tuesday PM Reads

    My afternoon train reads: • There’s No Need for Investors to Fear September (WSJ) • Stocks Are Red Hot. Investors Are Cold Sober (Bloomberg) see also Safety Dance (Reformed Broker) • 100 to 1 in the stock market (Seeking Wisdom) • The Incredible Shrinking Airline Seat Has a Back Story (Bloomberg View) • Google’s Self-Driving Cars Still Face Many Obstacles (MIT Technology Review) see also U.S. Utilities Push the Electric Car (WSJ) • US shale: What lies beneath (FT) • Buying Insurance After a Disaster Strikes (A Wealth of Common Sense) • The invasion of Ukraine, in maps, satellite photos, and video (Quartz) • Paul Shaffer’s Life With Letterman (Daily Beast) • Listomania — Over 1,200 fun facts organized by lists (Boing Boing) Wha...more

    Link ›

  • Calculated Risk

    Wednesday: Auto Sales, Fed's Beige Book

    Wednesday:• All day, Light vehicle sales for August. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 16.5 million SAAR in August from 16.4 million in July (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).• 10:00 AM, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for July. The consensus is for a 10.5% increase in July orders.• At 2:00 PM, Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their DistrictOil prices were down sharply today with Brent October futures down to $100.58 per barrel according to Bloomberg.  A year ago Brent was at $115 per barrel - so this is a significant year-over-year decline.The recent decline in prices could give a little boost to consumer spending on other item...more

    Link ›

  • Paul Krugman

    Three Roads to Hard Money

    Link ›

  • All HW content

    Dick Bove: "Mortgage crisis by winter"

    Link ›

  • All HW content

    HUD’s Castro keynotes Bipartisan Policy Center housing summit

    Link ›

  • naked capitalism

    New Zealand: How Crooks’ Buddies at WhaleOil Bounced Out the Chief of the Serious Fraud Office, and More

    Link ›

  • Economist's View

    Fed Watch: Solid Start to September

    Tim Duy: Solid Start to September, by Tim Duy: The ISM manufacturing report came in ahead of expectations with the strongest number since 2011: Moreover, strength was evident throughout the internal components: Note too that the report is consistent with other manufacturing numbers: If this is a taste of the data to expect this fall, it is tough to see how the Fed will be able to maintain their "considerable period" language much longer....more

    Link ›

  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    Assorted links

    1. The new Claudio Borio paper on excess financial elasticity. 2. How important are SOEs for China? 3. Why so many Russians support Putin, from a Russian opposition source. 4. Scott Sumner on intellectual decay. 5. What do Uber drivers make? 6. Defense of Thomas Piketty (pdf). 7. Syllabus on political science and science fiction (pdf). ...more

    Link ›

  • The Big Picture

    Household Rotation from Fixed Income to Equities

      Today’s chart comes to us from Torsten Slok, the chief international economist at Deutsche Bank AG. While rumors of an institutional rotation — selling equities and buying fixed income — swirl, we see the opposite behavior from households. Continues here     ...more

    Link ›

  • naked capitalism

    2:00PM Water Cooler 9/2/14

    Link ›

  • ProfessorBainbridge.com

    Excerpt from Cunningham's new book on Warren Buffett

    Larry Cunningham has posted an excerpt from his new book Berkshire Beyond Buffett: The Enduring Value of Values : The following is an excerpt from Chapter 8, Autonomy, from Berkshire Beyond Buffett:... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] ...more

    Link ›

  • ProfessorBainbridge.com

    Steve Bradford's safety tip of the day for law students

    Students often ask me how they can improve their performance in my classes. There’s one thing they can do that will increase their learning with no additional work on their part: stop multitasking.... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] ...more

    Link ›

  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    Soft landing vs. hard landing

    Michael Pettis writes: The choice, in other words, is not between hard landing and soft landing. China will either choose a “long landing”, in which growth rates drop sharply but in a controlled way such that unemployment remains reasonable even as GDP growth drops to 3% or less, or it will choose what analysts will at first hail as a soft landing – a few years of continued growth of 6-7% – followed by a collapse in growth and soaring unemployment. A “soft landing” would, in this case, simply be a prelude to a very serious and destabilizing contraction in growth. Rather than hail the soft landing as a signal that Beijing is succeeding in managing the economic adjustment, it should be seen as an indication that Beijing has not been able to implement the refor...more

    Link ›

  • Tim Duy's Fed Watch

    Solid Start to September

    The ISM manufacturing report came in ahead of expectations with the strongest number since 2011: Moreover, strength was evident throughout the internal components: Note too that the report is consistent with other manufacturing numbers:  If this is a taste of the data to expect this fall, it is tough to see how the Fed will be able to maintain their "considerable period" language much longer. ...more

    Link ›

  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Over at Equitable Growth: Why Haven't Long-Term Interest Rates Started to Normalize?: Tuesday Focus for September 2, 2014

    Over at Equitable Growth: The extremely-sharp Jérémie Cohen-Setton has a roundup: Jérémie Cohen-Setton: Blogs review: The bond market conundrum redux: "Are we seeing a new version of the Greenspan 2005 conundrum?... Fed tapering was widely expected to push up US yields. Instead, US yields have fallen since the beginning of the year.... A successful explanation of this new conundrum cannot just rely on a flight to safety... it also needs to rationalize why 5-year... and 10-year yield[s] have diverged.... READ MOAR Jeff Sommer... David Beckworth... Marc to Market.... James Hamilton writes that as the U.S. economy returns to healthier growth, many of us expected long-term interest rates to return to more normal historical levels. But the general trend has be...more

    Link ›

  • Calculated Risk

    CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.4% Year-over-year in July

    Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for July. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for June. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports Home Prices Rose by 7.4 Percent Year Over Year in JulyHome prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 7.4 percent in July 2014 compared to July 2013. This change represents 29 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 1.2 percent in July 2014 compared to June 2014....Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 6.8 percent in July 2014 compared to July 2013 and 1.1 percent month over mon...more

    Link ›

  • The Big Picture

    Masters in Business: James O’Shaughnessy

    James O’Shaughnessy of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management got his start in finance almost by accident: He was asked by a pension fund to review the performance of their various asset managers. Analyzing the investments by their quantitative characteristics, he reverse-engineered each of the portfolios, determining a more efficient and better-performing version of each one. Thus began his career in finance as a quant. O’Shaughnessy came to the attention of the rest of the financial world as the author of “What Works On Wall Street.” The book, now in its fourth edition, is a quantitative look at the various investment strategies that have and haven’t been successful during the past century. Today, he is the chairman and chief executive officer of O’S...more

    Link ›

  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    I’ll Spend Your Money More Frivolously and Carelessly than I Spend My Own Money

    (Don Boudreaux) One of Russ’s classic essays is this contribution to the May 18, 1995, edition of the Wall Street Journal; it’s entitled “If You’re Paying, I’ll Have Top Sirloin.” Keep Russ’s lesson in mind as you enjoy this photo taken in a restaurant by Texas A&M emeritus economist Steve Pejovich’s daughter Alexandra. People of good sense understand that such a payment policy makes no good sense; it is a recipe for the wanton waste and needless destruction of resources.  Yet such payment schemes continue to be endorsed as enlightened, humane, and progressive by “Progressives” – endorsed, ironically, by people who complain most loudly that free markets too often fail to internalize costs and bene...more

    Link ›

  • Calculated Risk

    Construction Spending increased 1.8% in July

    Earlier the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased in July:The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during July 2014 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $981.3 billion, 1.8 percent above the revised June estimate of $963.7 billion. The July figure is 8.2 percent above the July 2013 estimate of $906.6 billion.Both private and public spending increased in July:Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $701.7 billion, 1.4 percent above the revised June estimate of $692.2 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $358.1 billion in July, 0.7 percent above the revised June estimate of $355.6 billion. Nonre...more

    Link ›

  • Economist's View

    Objections to Fiscal Policy are Groundless—It Works

    I have a new column: Objections to Fiscal Policy are Groundless—It Works: One of the more controversial policies instituted in an attempt to stimulate the economy out of the Great Recession was the $816.3 billion fiscal stimulus package enacted just after Obama took office. ... [The artwork is a bit mixed up, it has Keynes in a helicopter dropping money...]...more

    Link ›

  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Red States Inflict Suffering on Their Citizens to Spite Obama: Hoisted from 53 and 79 Years Ago/Live from The Roasterie CCCXXI: September 2, 2014

    OK. It's time to try to pull everything together on the Red States, the Republican Party, ObamaCare, "repeal and replace", and starting at the top of the evil tree and hitting every branch all the way down... Let's start with a catch from Austin Frakt last January: Austin Frakt: These two tweets tell you all you need to know about the politics of health reform: January 29, 2014 at 12:30 pm: Two of Avik Roy’s tweets yesterday... ...pertaining to the recently released Senate GOP health reform plan (the Patient CARE Act [of Burr (R-NC) Coburn (R-OK), and Hatch [R-UT) and discussion thereof, are very revealing. @matthewherper: @Avik it still seems to me that this is going to hit a lot of voters harder. Even if it makes economic sense. @Avik: .@mat...more

    Link ›

  • Economist's View

    How to Shock the U.S. Economy Back to Life

    At MoneyWatch: How to shock the U.S. economy back to life, by Mark Thoma: During the Great Recession, U.S. gross domestic production -- the nation's total output of goods and services -- dropped below the trend rate of growth that prevailed before the collapse. More than five years into the recovery, the economy shows no signs of returning to that prior rate of growth. Instead, as the following graph shows, although the economy is growing at roughly the same rate as before the crisis, the growth is from a much lower level of output: Is this the "new normal" we hear so much about? Do Americans have no choice but to accept the lower level of output, and the lower level of employment and living standards that comes with it, or is there something we can ...more

    Link ›

  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    MRU class on international finance

    Our new class on international finance is up here.  The class description reads as follows: International finance covers some of the most complex but also important topics in economics. How are exchange rates determined? When if ever are ongoing trade deficits harmful? Are fixed or floating exchange rates better? What are the roots of the euro crisis and what resolution can we expect? Does China manipulate its exchange rate and if so how does that matter? We cover all of these topics and more, with an eye toward what a person really might want to know. There is no use of mathematics in this course beyond the very basic. The interesting thing about international finance is that even a lot of professional economists don’t understand it very well, unless they have speci...more

    Link ›

  • Paul Krugman

    Class Interests and Monetary Policy, Take II

    Link ›

  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Liveblogging the American Revolution: September 2, 1776: George Washington Laments

    Link ›

  • naked capitalism

    2-for-1 Links Split

    Link ›

  • Beat the Press

    Actually, the Chinese Can Do the High-Skilled Jobs at Lower Cost Too

    Link ›

  • Beat the Press

    Is Japan's Aging Population Really Going to Shrink Into Oblivion?

    Link ›

  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    Priced At What The Market Will Be Two Years From Now

    The News Press reports from Florida. “Housing starts in Southwest Florida spiked sharply in the second quarter, according to Metrostudy. Land Solutions CEO Randy Thibaut, who specializes in brokering the large-scale land transactions necessary to create residential communities, said the second-quarter numbers are encouraging but that it’s important to watch for possible obstacles to future increases. ‘We do have some slowdowns in the sales centers,’ he said. “We do have some standing inventory that’s building. My biggest concern is oversupply.’” “Thibaut also said it’s important to remember that the current pace of new-home construction is still a shadow of what it was before the housing boom collapsed in late ...more

    Link ›

  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Quotation of the Day…

    (Don Boudreaux) … is from page 193 of James Gwartney’s insightful 2013 essay “The Public Choice Revolution and Principles of Economics Texts,” which is chapter 13 of Public Choice, Past and Present: The Legacy of James M. Buchanan and Gordon Tullock (Dwight R. Lee, editor, 2013) (link added):​ The bulk of the economics profession continues to ignore public-choice analysis, and it is almost totally absent from most principles texts.  As a result, the mainstream approach is leaving both current students and the general public with a misleading, false, and romantic view of government and the operation of the democratic political process. ...more

    Link ›

  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    Bits Bucket for September 2, 2014

    Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.

    Link ›

  • The Capital Spectator

    Major Asset Classes | August 2014 | Performance Review

    Link ›

  • Tim Duy's Fed Watch

    Fed Positioning to Normalize Policy

    With the leaves turning to gold signaling the end of summer, so too will the Fed be facing its own change of seasons as quantitative easing comes to an end.  With asset purchases likely ending in October, time is growing short for the Fed to communicate a plan for the normalization of policy.  To be sure, the outline of the plan is already in place, with interest on reserves playing a primary role backed by overnight repurchase operations.  The timing of any action to raise rates, however, is likely to become a more contentious issue during the fall.  Hawks will be pitted against doves as the former focus on improving labor markets while the latter point to underemployment and low inflation as reason for patience.  The baseline scenario is that Fed Chair Janet Yel...more

    Link ›

  • Fabius Maximus

    America plays the hegemon while ruled by fear and machismo. FAIL.

    Link ›

  • Robert Reich

    Back to College, the Only Gateway to the Middle Class

    Link ›

  • Paul Krugman

    Inflation, Septaphobia, and the Shock Doctrine

    Link ›

  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    After Years Of Booms And Busts: Don’t Panic

    The Los Angeles Times reports from California. “Interest rates on an average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 4.1% this week, a low for the year, according to Freddie Mac. It’s helping to ease the pain of home prices that have climbed by one-third in Southern California over the last two years. When rates start to rise, there may well be a flurry of sales as buyers rush to lock in lower payments while they still can, said Mark Goldman, a mortgage broker who teaches real estate at San Diego State University. In the long run, Goldman and other market watchers say, higher rates may help to damp home sales, which are already running well below historical averages. But they’ll be balanced out by clearer lending guidelines and slightly looser credit requireme...more

    Link ›

  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Some Links

    (Don Boudreaux) Bob Murphy explains why intervention by the home government abroad promotes intervention by the home government at home.  Reality is not optional. Speaking of which: I offer again this link to a post of mine from nine years ago explaining why I object to calls by the likes of the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal for active U.S.-government involvement in foreign-government and military affairs. Here’s Steve Chapman on Uncle Sam’s latest war in Iraq. Dwight Lee is not only one of the best natural economists that I’ve ever known – he’s also one of the wittiest and wisest and warmest. I always love reading Sarah Skwire. Shikha Dalmia explains why Obama is no believable spokesman for “racial justice.” ...more

    Link ›

  • Macro and Other Market Musings

    Another Bond Market Conundrum?

    Link ›

  • Beat the Press

    Medicare and Medicaid Could Increase Competition

    Link ›

  • The Capital Spectator

    ISM Manufacturing Index: August 2014 Preview

    Link ›

  • Fabius Maximus

    Before your celebrate Labor Day, look at the reality of America’s workers

    Link ›

  • Econbrowser

    Bond market conundrum redux

    As the U.S. economy returns to healthier growth, many of us expected long-term interest rates to return to more normal historical levels. But the general trend has been down since the end of the Great Recession. The 10-year rate did jump back up in the spring of 2013. But during most of this year it has been falling again. Nominal yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, from FRED. And it’s not just that people are getting used to the idea that inflation is always going to be low. The drop in the yield on a 10-year Treasury inflation-protected security (TIPS), whose coupon and par value go up with the headline CPI, has also been impressive. Yield on 10-year TIPS. Data source: Gürkaynak, Sack, and Wright. But here’s an interesting detail. While the retur...more

    Link ›

  • Fabius Maximus

    Shut the Robo-whining: The Robocop Remake Has Something on its Mind

    Link ›

  • Econbrowser

    Quantitative Implications of Wisconsin Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

    No succor from the QCEW series that the Walker Administration previously touted [1] DWD released QCEW figures for first quarter 2014. Since the QCEW figures are not seasonally adjusted, I have estimated a series consistent with the BLS private nonfarm payroll employment series based on the QCEW data. Figure 1: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment (blue), path implied by Governor Walker’s August 2013 pledge (red), and employment implied by QCEW series (orange), all in thousands, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, DWD, and author’s calculations. Figure 1 includes an estimate of the private nonfarm payroll series using the QCEW figures as input. By March 2014, the BLS series and the estimated are close, although the BLS establishment survey was higher ...more

    Link ›

  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    Enter in the fall housing market: Shopping in Santa Monica with a $900,000 budget. Expectations running high before the fall season hits.

    Link ›

  • Econbrowser

    Wisconsin Forecasted to Lag Further Behind Minnesota

    And Kansas travels its own path Bruce Bartlett brings my attention to this article noting Minnesota’s economic performance. This reminded me to check on the Philadelphia Fed’s forecast for the next six months, released earlier today. What’s interesting to me is the fact the cumulative growth gap between Minnesota and Wisconsin (relative to 2011M01) is forecasted to grow — rather than shrink — over the next six months. Figure 1: Log coincident indices for Minnesota (blue bold), Wisconsin (red bold), Kansas (green), California (teal), and United States (black), all normalized to 2011M01=0, seasonally adjusted. Observations for 2015M01 are forecasts implied by leading indices. Source: Philadelphia Fed and author’s calculations. For tho...more

    Link ›

  • The Capital Spectator

    A Labor Day Lull…

    Link ›

  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    News from Amazon

    In the Business & Money category:Source And in all books:SourceTo users of my favorite textbooks: Thank you!  Have a great semester.

    Link ›

  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    A Nice Application of the Coase Theorem

    From Josh Barro.

    Link ›

  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    25 Brightest Young Economists

    Here is a list.  By the way, six are at Harvard, more than any other school.

    Link ›

  • macroblog

    What Kind of Job for Part-Time Pat?

    As anyone who follows macroblog knows, we have been devoting a lot of attention recently to the issue of people working part-time for economic reasons (PTER), which means people who want full-time work but have not yet been able to find it. As of July 2014, the number of people working PTER stood at around 7.5 million. This level is down from a peak of almost 9 million in 2011 but is still more than 3 million higher than before the Great Recession. That doesn’t mean they won’t ever find full-time work in the future, but their chances are a lot lower than in the past. Consider Pat, for example. Pat was working PTER at some point during a given year and was also employed 12 months later. At the later date, Pat is either working full-time, still working PTER, ...more

    Link ›

  • Robert Reich

    Back to School, and to Widening Inequality

    Link ›

  • macroblog

    Seeking the Source

    As the early data on the third quarter begin to roll in, the (very tentative) conclusion is that nothing we know yet contradicts the consensus gross domestic product (GDP) forecast (from the Blue Chip panel, for example) of seasonally adjusted annualized Q3 growth in the neighborhood of 3 percent. The latest from our GDPNow model: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2014 was 3.0 percent on August 19, up from 2.8 percent on August 13. The nowcast for inventory investment ticked up following the Federal Reserve's industrial production release on August 15 while the nowcast for residential investment growth increased following this morning's new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau...more

    Link ›

  • Macro and Other Market Musings

    About the Fed Not Trying Hard Enough To Hit Its Inflation Target

    Link ›

  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    Building for a future of American renting serfs: Private housing starts for structures with at least 5 units hits a post recession high. More than 11 million Americans spend more than 50 percent of income on rent

    Link ›

  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    Modi, Sisi & Jokowi: Three New Leaders Face the Challenge of Food & Fuel Subsidies

    In few policy areas does good economics seem to conflict so dramatically with good politics as in the practice of subsidies to food and energy.  Economics textbooks explain that these subsidies are lose-lose policies. In the political world that can sound like an ivory tower abstraction.   But the issue of unaffordable subsidies happens to be front and center politically now, in a number of places around the world.   Three major new leaders in particular are facing this challenge:  Sisi in Egypt, Jokowi in Indonesia, and Modi in India. The Egyptian leader is doing a much better job of facing up to the need to cut subsidies than one might have expected.  India’s new prime minister, by contrast, is doing worse than expected – even torpedoing a long-anticipated ...more

    Link ›

  • Macro and Other Market Musings

    Talking About the Past Five Years

    Link ›

  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    Real Homes of Genius: A search for small homes in Culver City. High prices for 700 and 800 square feet of stucco box joy.

    Link ›

  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – August 20 2014

    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) decreased 6 basis points to 4.15% since last week while the purchase application volume decreased 0.4% and the refinance application volum...more

    Link ›

  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings August 2014

    Recently, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that assessments of housing activity improved notably in August with the composite HMI index climbing to 55 from 53 the prior month while the "buyer traffic" index rose to a level of 42.Looking at the data, its pretty clear that while there was a bit of a pullback in activity earlier in the year, homebuilder sentiment and, in particular, assessments of buyer activity have improved. ...more

    Link ›

  • macroblog

    Are You Sure We're Not There Yet?

    In recent macroblog posts, our colleagues Dave Altig and John Robertson have posed the questions Getting There? and Are We There Yet?, respectively. "There" in these posts refers to "full employment." Dave and John conclude that while we may be getting there, we're not there yet. Not everyone agrees with that assessment, of course. Among the recent evidence some observers cite in defense of an approaching full-employment and growing wage pressures is the following chart. It shows a rather strong correlation between survey data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) on the proportion of firms planning to raise worker compensation over the next three months and lagged wage and salary growth (see the chart). (This recent post from the Dismal Scient...more

    Link ›

  • Robert Reich

    The Disease of American Democracy

    Link ›

  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    Retail Sales: July 2014

    Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales  showing modest activity in July with sales going flat from June and rising 3.7% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services. Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales declined slightly, falling 0.1% from June but rising 1.68% above the level seen in July 2013 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales declined 0.23% on the month and falling 0.34% since July 2013. ...more

    Link ›

  • Tim Duy's Fed Watch

    Heading Into Jackson Hole

    The Kansas City Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole conference is next week, and all eyes are looking for signs that Fed Chair Janet Yellen will continue to chart a dovish path for monetary policy well into next year.  Indeed, the conference title itself -  "Re-Evaluating Labor Market Dynamics" - points in that direction, as it emphasizes a topic that is near and dear to Yellen's heart.  My expectation is that no hawkish surprises emerge next week.  Despite continued improvement in labor markets, Yellen will push the Fed to hold back on aggressively tightening monetary policy.  And with inflation still below target, wage growth constrained, and inflation expectations locked down, she holds all the leverage to make that happen. Today we received the June JOLTS r...more

    Link ›

  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    Has Italy Really “Gone Back Into Recession”?

     Has Italy Really “Gone Back Into Recession”? Italians and the world have now been told that their economy slipped back into recession in the first half of 2014.  This characterization is based on the criterion for recession that is standard in Europe and most countries:  two successive quarters of negative growth.  But if the criteria for determining recessions in European countries were similar to those used in the United States, this new downturn would be a continuation of the 2012 recession in Italy, not a new one.  A common-sense look at the graph below suggests the same conclusion: the 2013 “recovery” is barely visible. Worse, Italy under U.S. standards would probably be treated as having been in the same horrific six-year recession ever s...more

    Link ›

  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    July 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

    Link ›

  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    US Monetary Policy and East Asia

    I visited Korea earlier this summer and gave a talk on effects of U.S. Tapering on Emerging Markets.  (This was also the subject of comments at an Istanbul conference sponsored by the NBER and the Central Bank of Turkey in June.) An interview on the effects of policy at the Fed and other advanced-country central banks on East Asian EMs now appears in KRX magazine (in Korean), August. Here is the English version: Special Interview with  Jeffrey A. Frankel <KRX MAGAZINE> August Q: On 10 June 2014, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said in a speech that the Fed’s “new” monetary policy tools, including forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases, were “essential” in ensuring the economic recovery in the Unite...more

    Link ›

  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    June 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

    Link ›

  • The Baseline Scenario

    How to Get Thrown Out of a Luxury Hotel

    Link ›

  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    My moonlighting career of the last 4 years

    At long last, Turkey's consitutional court has reversed the conviction of the more than 200 officers previously found guilty in the bogus Sledgehammer coup plot, leading to the release on June 19th of all those in jail (including my father in law). Even though a retrial is to take place, the ruling is a coda to the last four-and-a-half years during which my wife and I moonlighted as criminal investigator, forensic analyst, and political activist. It has been a truly surreal and bizarre experience, given how so many intelligent people bought into -- and refused let go of -- a coup plot that was patently fictitious.     So I thought this would be a good time to post a longish account of my involvement in the story. I wrote it as much to make sense of it to...more

    Link ›

  • The Baseline Scenario

    Corporate Political Contributions and Bad Faith, Whatever That Is

    Link ›

  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    May 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

    Link ›

  • The Baseline Scenario

    Larry Summers and Finance

    Link ›

  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Joining Global Policy as general editor

    David Held is one of the most thoughtful researchers and commentators on global issues, so I am thrilled and honored to be joining forces with him as joint general editor of Global Policy. The journal publishes a range of exciting academic and policy oriented pieces. Check it out here....more

    Link ›

  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Erdogan’s Coup

    Daron Acemoglu wrote what seemed like a surprising upbeat piece on Turkish democracy a few days ago. His argument seems to be that democracy required power to be wrested away from the secularists who had erected authoritarian structures, and Erdogan had achieved that. Even though, Erdogan’s recent turn to authoritarianism is “lamentable,” it was, Acemoglu claims, a predictable stage in Turkey’s democratic transition. Once Erdogan is gone, the article implies, democracy would be on a stronger footing than ever. There were in fact many other paths that could have proved less costly. The more typical pattern is that the old elites reach a modus vivendi with the rising, popular forces that preserves some of their privileges in return for opening up (as happened in S...more

    Link ›

  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Farewell

    In memoriam: Gary S. Becker, 1930-2014. The Becker-Posner blog is terminated. Richard A. Posner

    Link ›

  • Rick Bookstaber

    Piketty Myopia

    Thomas Piketty's book Capital in the Twenty-First Century has been lauded for its detailed analysis of data and for the end result of that analysis, a sweeping statement of an inexorable widening of the distribution of wealth between those with capital and those without. There is unabashed glee among those who have bemoaned the plight of the middle class as the one percent has pulled away, waving the book as the gotcha ya for income redistribution.  As should be clear from some of my previous posts, I am one of those people bemoaning the plight, but I am a little slower than many others to take up the Piketty banner. The book's argument looks at wealth and growth data over the past three centuries, and takes its implications forward with a similar, historical scope...more

    Link ›

  • Rick Bookstaber

    Big Data versus the SAT

    In a recent Time Magazine article, the president of Bard College, Leon Botstein, joined a chorus of criticism of the SAT, going so far as to call it “part hoax and part fraud.”  Criticism is coming fast and furious because the SAT has just unveiled a new, improved product to try to fend off a trend among competitive colleges to downplay the role of the SAT, and even to eliminate its use entirely.  (The not-for-profit status of the College Board, which produces the SAT, does not put the company beyond reacting to a profit motive; not-for-profit does not exactly mean you don’t get benefits from pulling in more revenue). Among the critiques are that performance during one afternoon in the junior year of high school should not govern a student’s future (th...more

    Link ›

  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Sabbatical Notice

    Starting this weekend, we will be taking a one-month sabbatical from blogging. We will resume at the end of that period.

    Link ›

  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    The Embargo of Cuba: Time to Go- Becker

    The US embargo of Cuba began in 1960, a year after Fidel Castro turned this island toward communism. It was extended to food and medicines in 1962, the same year as the showdown with Russia over the installation of missiles there. The embargo has prevented American companies from doing business with Cuba, and discouraged tourism to Cuba. The American government also tried with quite limited success to prevent other countries from trading with Cuba. In general economic embargoes are undesirable because they interfere with free trade among countries. Yet a case could be made for an embargo against Cuba. Castro not only allowed Russian missiles to be installed in Cuba, just 90 miles from Florida, but was also actively trying to interfere in other countries by sending troop...more

    Link ›

  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Capital Gains And Games Now Being Published By Forbes

    Link ›

  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Big Changes Are Coming To Capital Gains And Games

    Link ›

  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Camp Plan Puts Nail In Tax Reform Coffin For This Year, And Next, And...

    Link ›

  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    Hannah Harris Green in The Guardian on Race, Crime and Television

    She writes:The First 48 is an A&E true crime reality show that documents real police investigations for the first 48 hours after a homicide report, including what happens inside interrogation rooms. If this sounds dangerous and ethically questionable, that's because it is. Police accidentally killed a child as A&E's cameras rolled, and a legally innocent man came to beknown as a murderer after of his appearance on the show. Catastrophes like these have led to lawsuits, and now many cities refuse to work with The First 48.......This portrayal is not representative of American crime statistics. Although homicide arrests are disproportionately high among African Americans, about the same total number of white people are arrested i...more

    Link ›

  • democracyarsenal.org

    Can the F-35 Replace the A-10?

    by Nickolai Sukharev  One of the big decisions the United States Air Force has considered over the last few months is whether to retire the A-10 Thunderbolt II fleet as a cost saving measure while developing and procuring the F-35A Lightening II. Given the Budget Control Act caps on Pentagon spending and the need to better allocate funds, officials have expressed their preference to prioritize multi-mission platforms in the inventory. But the problem is that the F-35A is not a replacement for the A-10’s close air support. The reason is simple: it lacks comparable capabilities despite a higher operating cost. Given the constrained budgetary environment, the comparative cost to maintain and operate the two aircraft should be a decisive consideration. The A-10 is a...more

    Link ›

  • Rick Bookstaber

    Live to Eat, Eat to Live

    In a recent New York Times opinion piece, Paul Krugman assessed the possibility that the economy is in a new, constant state of mild depression, and suggests several reasons why this might be occurring, including slowing population growth and a persistent trade deficit. To this I would like to suggest another one, which has been a topic of some of my previous posts: We simply demand less in terms of the consumption of produced, brick and mortar types of goods because that is not where we are spending our lives. Granted, we need a place to live, food to eat, a car to get around, but now we are not living to eat, we are eating to live; we are living to do things that do not require a huge industrial machine. (I won't even get into the point that insofar as we require the...more

    Link ›

  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    UW-La Crosse Chancellor Joe Gow has issues with sifting and winnowing.

    A geography professor at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, Rachel Slocum, made the mildly controversial point in an email to her students that Republicans in the House of Representatives had brought about the partial closure of the US government, and had therefore brought about the closure of the US Census web site.  This closure prevented her students from completing their assignments.  She never used abusive or offensive language.Her point raised howls among the conservative blogasphere and media; when confronted with this, her boss, UW-La Crosse Chancellor Joe Gow, publicly reprimanded her for expressing a factually based opinion to her class.  In my view, it was his job to back her--not to agree with her opinion, but rather to defend he...more

    Link ›

  • democracyarsenal.org

    After Geneva Talks A Consensus on Moving Forward

    By Homa Hassan The two-day round of P5+1 negotiations with Iran just concluded in Geneva and Western diplomats are carefully reviewing a detailed proposal presented by Iran. As this proposal is being reviewed ahead of the follow-on meetings in November it is important to look at what the realistic prospects of a deal will look like. Going into this week’s talks, a number of commentaries came out attempting to set negotiations up for failure. However, it is widely agreed that a negotiated solution to Iran’s controversial nuclear program is the best way to achieve a sustainable solution and a recent survey of reports and recommendations from bipartisan think tanks and high-level experts demonstrates a broad consensus on how to approach negotiations a...more

    Link ›

  • democracyarsenal.org

    TPP, TTIP and Getting America's Competitiveness Back on Track

    By Marcela Heywood Last week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bali, Indonesia marked further progress for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and set an ambitious goal to finish negotiations by the end of the year. Although the U.S. government shutdown – and President Obama’s absence in Bali – did not hinder the trade talks, it did call America’s credibility into question. Government shutdown could threaten both TPP and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations by displaying uncertainty in U.S. economic and foreign policy priorities. Congress needs to reach an agreement and prioritize TPP and TTIP, as they are necessary policy initiatives to boost American competitiveness, stimulate the economy, and exert soft power to cr...more

    Link ›

  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    The Windy City and The Foggy City

    Hannah Green writes:ERNEST HEMINGWAY famously wrote of Paris, “If you are lucky enough to have lived in Paris as a young man, then wherever you go for the rest of your life, it stays with you, for Paris is a moveable feast." For half a century, Hemingway’s nostalgic vision of the city of lights has made undiscovered literary geniuses wish that they could be unemployed in Paris in the 1920s instead of unemployed wherever they live, now. Last year, Teju Cole’s debut novel, Open City, offered a different kind of literary city. The main character, Julius, who resembles Cole, wanders the streets of New York, conversing with the city’s residents and falling into reveries about music, history, and literature. Most of the people he speaks with are immigrants, ...more

    Link ›

  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-09

    Given that I block NSA & PRISM tweets, was entertaining tuning into twitter & trying to figure why everyone was on about Lord Snowdon -> Turned on GoT tonight just in time to catch Daenerys reenacting her Level 2 YMCA gymnastics pageant. -> How Not to Be Alone | Jonathan Safran Foer – http://t.co/HMFxg75lfh http://t.co/DzAtvWBQJr -> Excellent, but fellow sports-med geeks only: Sports and exercise-related tendinopathies: a review – http://t.co/WGkhRlO6Uz -> ...more

    Link ›

  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-07

    Photo-set: Flooding Across Central Europe – http://t.co/8G6j8teCbd -> CDC Update: Severe Respiratory Illness Associated with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus – http://t.co/hWqN1338VN -> Col Flagg: Have you ever heard of Malaysian Chest Implosion Torture? Radar: No. Coll Flagg: Good. It hasn’t been invented… yet. -> tl;dr: There are Manchurian Candidate engineers at large tech cos that have stolen SSL root cert and NSA is using it for cattle mutilation. -> Brian: …Will you please listen? I'm not the Messiah! Do you understand? Honestly Woman: Only the true Messiah denies his divinity! -> ...more

    Link ›

  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-05

    FRED: Free Energy Data – http://t.co/90H7GVDazO -> Solipsisms ‘r’ us, courtesy of my friends at @thinkup: I apparently mention me a lot – http://t.co/9rTRXvBM9D -> Almost 10,000 words on soccer/Italy/economics/racism by @wrightthompson? Yes, & it’s super. Go. http://t.co/g4sgEFLkIC -> When The Beautiful Game Turns Ugly: A journey into the world of Italy's racist soccer thugs http://t.co/nckrbeLPfs -> Can’t remember last time I read an OpEd or column. Do those still exist? -> ...more

    Link ›

  • The Street Light

    Cyprus and Eurozone Bank Deposits

    To me, the central issue raised by this week's Cyprus debacle is how it has affected confidence across the eurozone.  To what degree has the possibility of insured depositors at a eurozone bank losing a portion of their deposits affected the mindset of depositors?  To what degree has ECB acquiescence to this possibility undermined the notion that deposit insurance in the eurozone means the same thing in all countries?  And to what degree has the ECB's direct threat to end support for Cyprus's banking system in the event that the government of Cyprus can not arrange sufficient funds to meet its conditions made a farce of its earlier promise to "do whatever it takes to preserve the euro"?These, to me, are the interesting questions prompted by this week's ev...more

    Link ›

  • The Street Light

    When the Fed Chair is an Academic

    The big economic news of the week was, in fact, big economic news: the Fed's announcement of significant changes from past practice in the the quantity of its next round of large scale asset purchases ("unlimited"), and in the timing of any future reversal of this expansionary policy ("a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens").I view this as a pretty fundamental shift in how the Fed hopes to affect the economy.  Rather than trying to push economic activity one way or the other through its management of interest rates (which can alter economic activity through its portfolio-rebalancing and wealth effects, for example), the Fed is now quite explicitly trying to affect economic activity by altering interest rate and inflation expectations.  As...more

    Link ›

  • The Street Light

    Government Job Destruction

    Another jobs report in the US, another month where part of the private sector's job creation was undone by continued job destruction by the government sector. The 15,000 additional jobs lost in April brings total job losses in the government sector since January 2010 to over 500,000. While the US has not quite been experiencing European-style austerity over the past two years, that's still a pretty tough headwind to fight as it emerges from recession. ...more

    Link ›

  • TPMCafe

    Message to world government: Don't govern the Internet

    You could think of the Aspen IDEA report published today as a letter to the head of the International Telecommunications Union, Hamadoun Touré, suggesting that he should reconsider his intent to put the "light touch" of government on the Internet's operations. M. Touré will be running a major meeting of world governments in Dubai at the end of this year. The Dubai meeting, known as WCIT 12, may have an agenda that is a light touch only if that's what you can call a grab for the jugular vein of the Internet. The issues may include a "per click" tax on international Internet traffic, individual nation state regulation identities to online activity, national encryption standards to allow government surveillance, and multinational governance of the Internet. Russia, Chi...more

    Link ›

  • TPMCafe

    Obama and Romney on Foreign Policy - Drawing the Contrasts

    The political battle lines are being drawn for the general election debate over foreign policy and national security, and you can't do much better than my fellow Democracy Arsenal blogger Michael Cohen for a guide. One key theme of Michael's latest column for ForeignPolicy.com is what a difference it makes for a candidate to bear the responsibility of governing, or on the other hand, campaign to be commander in chief on the basis of self-serving pot shots. My only quibble regards how Romney's reed-thin foreign policy argument will fare with voters. Take Michael's analysis of Romney's potential advantage in the debate on Iran: He can simply lob rhetorical haymakers that hype up the threat of an Iranian bomb or offer Churchillian declarations about his intention to stop...more

    Link ›

  • TPMCafe

    Will Yale's Alumni Save Liberal Education?

    Hoping to head off alumni resistance to the brand-new "Yale-National University of Singapore" college that the Yale Corporation has created somewhat stealthily in collaboration with the government of that authoritarian city-state, Association of Yale Alumni chairman Michael Madison has inadvertently demonstrated one of the ways Yale College is being transformed from a crucible of civic-republican leadership, grounded in liberal education, into a global career-networking center and cultural galleria for a new elite that answers to no polity or moral code: STATEMENT OF THE OFFICERS OF THE AYA BOARD OF GOVERNORS, Michael Madison, Chair of the Board "All Yale-NUS College graduates will be warmly welcomed as a part of the Yale alumni community. They will also be invited...more

    Link ›


Most Read | Featured | Popular

Blogger Spotlight

Otaviano Canuto

Otaviano Canuto is Senior Advisor on BRICS Economies in the Development Economics Department, World Bank, a new position established by President Kim to bring a fresh research focus to this increasingly critical area. He also has an extensive academic background, serving as Professor of Economics at the University of Sao Paulo and University of Campinas (UNICAMP) in Brazil.

Economics Blog Aggregator

Our favorite economics blogs aggregated.