EconoMonitor

Economics Blog Aggregator

    United States

  • naked capitalism

    A Truce In The Holy Oil War?

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    Economist cereal boxes

    We are running a contest for MRU, and the goal is to figure out how economists ought to be put on cereal boxes.  Imagine that a famous economist would in fact be represented by a cereal and a cereal box.  For example there would be: Thomas Piketty, Special K Another possibility would be tweaking the cereal name slightly, so you would get: Hyman Minsky, Captain Liquidity Crunch Or: John Bates Clark, Marginal Product 19 You could try: Eugene Fama, Lucky Charms, though perhaps that is too subtle for some. The winner of the contest gets…his or her suggestion actually realized.  Please enter your suggestions, and vote on the suggestions of others, here.  Or if you don’t want to enter the contest per se, there is always the MR comments section… ...more

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  • Econbrowser

    If Output Is Near Potential, Why Is Inflation so Low?

    There is a lot of discussion of how economic slack is fast disappearing, and I expect a lot of push on this view, given continued rapid growth in GDP as reported in today’s second release for 2014Q3. This view seems counter to (1) the CBO estimate of potential GDP and (2) the slow pace of inflation. My suggestion is that there remains a substantial amount of slack out there. In Figure 1, I plot log GDP as reported in today’s release, and potential GDP as estimated by the CBO in its August report. Figure 1: Log GDP (blue), potential GDP as estimated by CBO (gray), and an estimate of potential GDP estimated by use of a modified Ball-Mankiw (2002) method (red). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA 2014Q3 2nd release, CBO, An Update to the Bu...more

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  • All HW content

    Median home price in October increases to highest since Sept. 2008

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  • All HW content

    The 12 hottest housing markets right now

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Insignificance and Significance

    (Don Boudreaux) In my latest column for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review I ponder various kinds and degrees of insignificance of individual human choices and actions. I wrote this column before completing my reading of Russ’s brilliant new book, How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life.  While finishing my reading of Russ’s book hasn’t caused me to change my mind on any matter mentioned in my column, it has caused me to see some additional issues that warrant more careful scrutiny.  Likewise for David Henderson’s recent – and, I hope to show in a future blog post, related – thoughts on Mt. Rushmore. Here’s a slice from my column – a column entitled “Significant Insignificance”: Our individual choices in markets an...more

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  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Legacy vs. Internet Media Once More: Live from La Farine

    With respect to: Zumb: I've been thinking about what: "I don't doubt Shane's encounter with her former colleagues... ...but I still found the story a little bit off from what I've personally experienced.... Shane mentions that she thinks the pendulum is about to swing the other direction and she envisions talking to people at legacy organizations in a few years and saying 'You're still there? Really?!?!' I'd say 'You're still there? Really?!?!' has already probably been the single most common question anyone at a legacy news organization has gotten over the previous decade. The past decade has been a relentless drumbeat of departures.... It's not a pendulum. It's a wrecking ball and it's been swinging ferociously into legacy media and carrying away the rub...more

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  • Fabius Maximus

    What does Ferguson mean, beyond jeering at the bad guys? What does it tell us about America?

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  • Calculated Risk

    Wednesday: New Home Sales, Personal Income, Durable Goods, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home sales

    Earlier the FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 today. Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported aggregate net income of $38.7 billion in the third quarter of 2014, up $2.6 billion (7.3 percent) from earnings of $36.1 billion the industry reported a year earlier. The increase in earnings was mainly attributable to a $7.8 billion (4.8 percent) increase in net operating revenue (the sum of net interest income and total noninterest income), the biggest since the fourth quarter of 2009. ...The number of "problem banks" fell for the 14th consecutive quarter. The number of banks on the FDIC's "Problem List" declined from 354 to 329 during the quarter, the lowest since the 305 in the first quar...more

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  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Noted for Your Evening Procrastination for November 25, 2014

    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog European Economic Integration: The Rebalancing Challenge in Europe: Monday Focus A Question for Richard Koo: Daily Focus Over at Project Syndicate: Economic Growth and the Information Age: Daily Focus Lars E. O. Svensson: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Jonathan Cohn: Obama's Immigration Order: A Vote for American Exceptionalism Nicholas Bagley: Three Words and the Future of the Affordable Care Act Nick Bunker: Are big businesses slowing wage growth? Nick Bunker: An appreciation of Robert Solow Carter Price: What’s the link between corporate profits, investments, and economic growth? Plus: Things to Read on the Evening of November 25, 2014* Must- and Shall-Reads: Lars Svensson: Monetary policy tradeoffs in CE...more

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  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Over at Project Syndicate: Economic Growth and the Information Age: Daily Focus

    Over at Project Syndicate: Last month in this space we reviewed the pulling-apart of America as it has become a vastly more unequal place since 1979: top 1% incomes grew at 3.6%/year, rest of the top fifth grew at 1.6%/year, middle three-fifths grew at 0.9%/year, bottom fifth at 0.5%/year-—with the proviso that improved access to medical care was worth a good deal more than its market cost. But the past generation has seen a third industrial revolution, a worthy information-age successor to the first of steam, iron, cotton, and machines and to the second of internal combustion, electricity, steel, and chemicals. Not everyone, but almost everyone in the North Atlantic and many and soon most in the world, can now if they wish have a smartphone--and so gain che...more

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    George Selgin Dazzlingly Disses the Dizzy

    (Don Boudreaux) If someone who knows not the slightest thing about neurosurgery beyond what he infers by pondering his own skull takes a scalpel to a patient’s brain, the patient suffers a gruesome death and the pretend-healer is exposed immediately as a charlatan.  Matters, alas, differ in economics.  Pretend-economists often not only get away with the most bizarre quackery, but receive applause for practicing it. Fortunately, the blogosphere has in it true scholars such as George Selgin to expose pretenders. Here’s George’s brilliant exposé of one Izabella Kaminska.  Do treat yourself to the pure pleasure of reading George’s prose and absorbing his learning.  A slice from near the beginning: Tell me I’m not with it, if you must, bu...more

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  • All HW content

    Chad Neel joins Solutionstar as executive vice president

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    Uber: What could possibly go wrong

    Uber at the core is nothing more than a bunch of guys who came up with a clever app for streamlining the way you call for a car.  Rather than phoning or texting, you tap on the app.  Rather than paying with cash or credit cards, you have an account.  And rather than depending on the reputation of the car company, you depend on the ratings-based reputation of the specific driver. (Another feature, the pre-determined fare, with that fare essentially including all fees including tip, is nothing new for car services). And, by the way, it is readily replicable by any other car services, including those that already have a reputation and experienced drivers.  So it seems to me that it is only mildly innovative.  How do you build a successful world-wid...more

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  • The Big Picture

    10 Tuesday PM Reads

    My afternoon train reads: • Can Automakers Fix Themselves? (Bloomberg View) • Gross versus Gundlach: Who Has More Skill? (Advisor Perspectives) • How pensions make investing too complex (Fortune) • Millennial Investors Don’t Trust The Market – And They Shouldn’t (Meb Faber) but see The Market Is Your Friend. Really: One Millennial’s Advice to Peers (WSJ) • Hire An Advisor (Irrelevant Investor) • Bloviators vs. Experts (Kris Venne) • Are Low Interest Rates Responsible For High Stock Valuations? (The Fat Pitch) see also Low Inflation: Why It Will Persist (Barron’s) • A Persuasive Chart Showing How Persuasive Charts Are (The Upshot) • Why Uber Fights (Stratechery) • Taylor Swift says streaming is bad for artists. Is she right? (...more

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  • Calculated Risk

    Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in October, Lowest since December 2008

    Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in October to 1.91% from 1.96% in September. Freddie's rate is down from 2.28% in October 2013, and this is the lowest level since December 2008. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  Note: Fannie Mae will report their Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate for October in a few days.Click on graph for larger imageAlthough this indicates progress, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%.  The serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.57 percentage points over the last year - and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will no...more

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    Arrived in my pile

    1. John A. Allison, The Leadership Crisis and the Free Market Cure. 2. Peter J. Wallison, Hidden in Plain Sight: What Really Caused the World’s Worst Financial Crisis and Why It Could Happen Again. 3. Ted Gioia, Love Songs: The Hidden History. 4.Andrew Palmer, Smart Money: How High-Stakes Financial Innovation is Reshaping Our World for the Better. ...more

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  • Beat the Press

    Robert Samuelson Doesn't Like Social Security, Again

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  • Economist's View

    Economic Growth and the Information Age

    Brad DeLong: Over at Project Syndicate: Economic Growth and the Information Age: Daily Focus: ...America ... has become a vastly more unequal place since 1979... But the past generation has seen a third industrial revolution, a worthy information-age successor to the first of steam, iron, cotton, and machines and to the second of internal combustion, electricity, steel, and chemicals. Not everyone, but almost everyone in the North Atlantic and many and soon most in the world, can now if they wish have a smartphone–and so gain cheap access to the universe of human knowledge and entertainment to a degree that was far beyond the reach of all but the richest of a generation ago. How much does this matter? How much does this mean that conventional measures of real income ...more

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  • naked capitalism

    2:00PM Water Cooler 11/25/14

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  • Economist's View

    'Is Uber Really in a Fight to the Death?'

    For those of you interested in Uber, this is from Joshua Gans: Is Uber really in a fight to the death?: In recent days, since their PR troubles, there has been much discussion as to why Uber seems to be so aggressive. Reasons ranged from being inept, to the challenges of fighting politics against taxi regulations to a claim that Uber’s market has a ‘winner take all’ nature. It is this last one that is of particular interest because it suggests that Uber has to fight hard against competitors like Lyft or it will lose. It also suggests that Uber’s $20 billion odd valuation is based on beliefs that it will win, and win big. I am not sure that this is really the case. Despite the name ‘Uber’ connoting, ‘one Uber to rule them all,’ th...more

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  • Calculated Risk

    House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in September

    The expected slowdown in year-over-year price increases is ongoing. In November 2013, the Comp 20 index was up 13.8% year-over-year (YoY). Now the index is only up 4.9% YoY. This is the smallest YoY increase since October 2012 (the National index was up 10.9% YoY in October 2013, is now up 4.8% - also the slowest YoY increase since October 2012.Looking forward, I expect the indexes to slow further on a YoY basis, however: 1) I don't expect the indexes to turn negative YoY (in 2015) , and 2) I think most of the slowdown on a YoY basis is now behind us.This slowdown was expected by several key analysts, and I think it is good news.  As Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries said today:“The days of double-digit home value appreciation continue to rapidly fade away...more

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  • Economist's View

    ''How to Think about 'Think' Tanks''

    Miles Corak: How to think about “think” tanks: It is sometimes said that think tanks are good for democracy; indeed the more of them, the better. If there are more ideas in the public arena battling it out for your approval, then it’s more likely that the best idea will win, and that we will all have better public policies. But intuitively many of us have trouble believing this, have trouble knowing who is being truthful, and don’t know who to trust. This battle of ideas, studies, and statistics has the potential to make many of us cynical about the whole process, and less trusting of all research and numbers. If a knowledgeable journalist like the Canadian Kady O’Malley expresses a certain exasperation that think-tank studies always back up “the think-t...more

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    Does it make sense to put cameras on the police?

    The Bloomberg editorial staff says no: Videos often lack critical context, and studies have repeatedly shown that jurors can be misled by variables such as a film’s angle or focus, which can unduly sway perceptions of guilt. That cuts both ways: Footage of a protester bumping into a cop, devoid of context, could make life much easier on a prosecutor. Police cameras are also prone to intentional abuse. With mysterious frequency, they seem to accidentally get switched off or malfunction at critical moments. One obvious remedy is to require that cops always keep them on. But that can be counterproductive. Witnesses and victims may be less forthcoming on camera. Attracting competent officers could become harder if their every interaction is recorded. Crucially, office...more

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  • The Big Picture

    Closer View of the Housing Boom

    Click to see the animated changes to the map. Source: Urban Institute

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Meanwhile, Uncertainty Growth is Booming

    (Don Boudreaux) Here’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal: The subheading describing Alan Blinder’s essay “The Unsettling Mystery of Productivity” (Nov. 25) reads “Since 2010 U.S. productivity has grown at a miserable rate.  And no one, not even the Fed, seems to understand why.” Here’s a potential explanation: regime uncertainty.  Pioneered by economist Robert Higgs to explain the length and depth of the Great Depression,* the concept of “regime uncertainty” captures the difficulty of investors to foresee how their rights to their property (including to their profits) will be affected by government policies.  A rise in regime uncertainty reduces productive, private-sector investments - and a consequence of reduced investment is slower produc...more

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  • naked capitalism

    Who Will Wind Up Holding the Bag in the Shale Gas Bubble?

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  • The Capital Spectator

    Personal Consumption Expenditures: October 2014 Preview

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  • The Big Picture

    Stop Making Intellectually Disingenuous Market Arguments

    The quality of our discourse is decaying. This was once a standard complaint about the tone and depth of our national political debate. Now it has spilled into the financial realm. Shall we blame Twitter, trolls or bloggers? I am unsure of the underlying reason. But as we have seen far too, financial discussions seem to entail people arguing at cross-purposes. Bull-bear debates devolve into winning the argument at any cost. Previously, we had a true competition of ideas in the marketplace. Now, we have discussions that range between disingenuous and useless. The hunt for the truth has been replaced by the search for bragging rights. Price discovery, like so many other things in our society, depends on a robust and open debate. The intellectual arguments can and do sway ...more

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  • Beat the Press

    Strange Reuters Commentary on Economic Populism

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  • Fabius Maximus

    Everything you wanted to know about California’s drought (except when it will end)

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  • The Capital Spectator

    Q4:2014 US GDP Nowcast: +2.1% | 25 Nov 2014

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  • Beat the Press

    It Would Take a Lot of Mismanagement to Raise the Cost of Treasury Debt by "Just" 20 Basis Points

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  • The Capital Spectator

    Initial Guidance | 25 November 2014

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  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    The Runaway Property Boom Looks To Be Over

    The Mirror reports from the UK. “Foreign buyers accounted for almost three-quarters of home purchases in central London in 2012, according to a report by one property group, and more than half were snapped up by buyers from Singapore, Hong Kong, China and Malaysia. But many of these high-end homes are bought by wealthy foreign-based investors and left empty. Labour MP Sadiq Khan said: ‘Londoners are being priced out of the housing market by an influx of foreign buyers, who see London property as an investment and in many cases leave properties sitting empty as ‘ghost homes’.” The Vancouver Sun in Canada. “Senior economist Robin Wiebe, a former analyst at the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, says it’s true, Vancouver’s pric...more

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  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    Bits Bucket for November 25, 2014

    Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.

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  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    Real Homes of Genius: Bars on the window. Check. Garbage cans in the yard. Check. Bubblicious prices in Culver City. Check.

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  • Fabius Maximus

    What is a fourth generation war, the wars of the 21st century? Who fights them, and why?

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  • macroblog

    And the Winner Is...Full-Time Jobs!

    Each month, the U.S. Census Bureau for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) surveys about 60,000 households and asks people 15 years and older whether they are employed and, if so, if they are working full-time or part-time. The BLS defines full-time employment as working at least 35 hours per week. This survey, referred to as both the Current Population Survey and the Household Survey, is what produces the monthly unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and other statistics related to activities and characteristics of the U.S. population. For many months after the official end of the Great Recession in June 2009, the Household Survey produced less-than-happy news about the labor market. The unemployment rate didn't start to decline until October 2009, a...more

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  • ProfessorBainbridge.com

    A $21 Check Prompts Toyota Driver to Wonder Who Benefited from Class Action - Law Blog - WSJ

    Jonathan Sourbeer, a computer science student in Redmond, Wash., says he recently got a check in the mail for $20.91. As a Toyota customer, the money was his share of the $1.1 billion that Toyota... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] ...more

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  • Econbrowser

    Downgraded: The Macro Outlook in Wisconsin

    The Department of Revenue’s Wisconsin Economic Outlook, released last week, details a noticeable deterioration in forecasted economic performance, in just the past eight months. Figure 1: Real personal income (bn Ch.05$, SAAR) (thick blue, thick red), and forecast from March 2014 (Winter 2014 issue) (light blue), and November 2014 (Fall 2014 issue) (light red). Source: Wisconsin Economic Outlook, Winter 2014 and Fall 2014 issues. 2014Q1 personal income was 1% less (in log terms) than the March 2014 forecast. The forecast for 2014Q2 was revised downward by 1.1%. Interestingly, the report forecasts an acceleration to 5% SAAR growth in 2015Q1 (with nominal personal income forecast to growth 6.4%). About 44% of the increase in forecasted 2015Q1 nominal personal inco...more

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  • Robert Reich

    Why College Is Necessary But Gets You Nowhere

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  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    Hearing The Word Oversupply Just About Everywhere

    The Los Angeles Times reports from California. “By most measures, the housing market these days is a bit sluggish. But the high end is hopping. Luxury home sales in Southern California are hitting levels not seen in decades. Sales worth $10 million or more are on pace this year to double their number from the heights of the housing bubble. The number of homes bought for $2 million or more in recent months is the highest on record. Sales have been brisk, said Joan Marcus Colvin, New Home’s senior VP of sales, marketing and design, especially at that Newport condo building, the Meridian, where 34 units have sold since February, at an average price of nearly $3 million.” “That’s without even having a model home to show customers — the site i...more

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  • Econbrowser

    Lower oil prices and the U.S. economy

    For the last 4 years, the national average retail price of gasoline in the United States stayed within a range of $3.25-$4.00 a gallon. But that all changed this fall, with U.S. consumers now paying an average price of $2.82. New Jersey Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com This usually is the time of year when gasoline prices tend to be at their lowest. But the current U.S. price of gasoline is exactly what we’d predict given the long-run relation between the price of gasoline and crude oil. There’s essentially no seasonal component in the price of crude. In other words, if crude stays at its current value (namely, Brent at $80), the lower price of gasoline is here to stay. The current price of gasoline is 80 cen...more

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  • ProfessorBainbridge.com

    Bishop versus Bebchuk and Jackson on political spending disclosure

    Keith Paul Bishop argues that Lucian Bebchuk and Robert Jackson's defense of political spending disclosure is flawed. He is, of course, correct. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] ...more

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    Trash Talking at the Harvard-Yale Game

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  • ProfessorBainbridge.com

    Will the State Dept try to prevent victims of Palestinian terror from getting their day in court?

    Probably not, but Alison Frankel does a nice job of parsing the State Deartment's mealy mouthed record on the issue. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] ...more

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  • Paul Krugman

    The Wisdom of Peter Schiff

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    McCloskey on Piketty

    A long, discursive, and compelling review essay.

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  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    The middle class migration out of California: While domestic migration is up, foreign migration is filling the gap.

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  • Paul Krugman

    Friday Night Music: Jessica Hernandez and the Deltas

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  • Paul Krugman

    Inequality and Crises: Scandinavian Skepticism

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  • macroblog

    For Middle-Skill Occupations, Where Have All the Workers Gone?

    .citation { font-style: italic; } .byline { font-style: italic; } .centeredImage { display: block !important; margin-left: auto !important; margin-right: auto !important; } Considerable discussion in recent years has concerned the “hollowing out of the middle class.” Part of that story revolves around the loss of the types of jobs that traditionally have been the core of the U.S. economy: so-called middle-skill jobs. These jobs, based on the methodology of David Autor, consist of office and administrative occupations; sales jobs; operators, fabricators, and laborers; and production, craft, and repair personnel (many of whom work in the manufacturing industry). In this post, we don't examine why the decline in middle-skill jobs has ...more

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    On Death with Dignity

    We take the will to live as a positive attribute, and naturally so; it is, of course in our genes.  Whatever subset of our species took a lackadaisical view toward the prospect of death was screened out long ago. We look with admiration on those who battle against terminal illness --  “She’s a real fighter” -- and look down on those who take their own lives. Fighting for your life is the genetic prime directive.   Thus the recent death of Brittany Maynard spurred a flurry of news articles and posts on the Death with Dignity movement. There will be a lot more to come on this topic, and the movement will gather steam because whatever is in the crosshairs of the baby boomers weighs down on society as a whole. Soon the baby boomers will come to the...more

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  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    New Residential Construction Report: October 2014

    Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results with total permit activity improving while total start activity declined since September.Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 1.4% from September to 640K single family units (SAAR), and increased 2.4% above the level seen in October 2013 but still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005. ...more

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  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – November 19 2014

    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) decreased 3 basis points to 4.04% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 12% and the refinance application volume...more

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  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    You can’t afford to live in California: Only 30 percent of families can afford to purchase a home in California. Over 80 percent of California unaffordable on a teacher’s salary.

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  • Robert Reich

    And Now the Richest .01 Percent

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  • The Baseline Scenario

    Obamacare, Taxes, United Airlines, and My Tea Infuser

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  • Macro and Other Market Musings

    Another Look at Neo-Fisherism

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    Elmendorf for CBO Director

    Roll Call speculates about who the next director of the Congressional Budget Office might be. This is a key decision facing the newly elected GOP-controlled Congress. After giving a talk at CBO on Thursday and participating in its Academic Advisers Panel on Friday, I am reminded how impressive the CBO staff is and how important the institution is to the policy process. (FYI, my own affiliation with CBO dates back to the summer of 1978, when I was an intern there.)So who should the next CBO director be? There are a lot of reputable economists on the Roll Call list. Many are friends of mine. All things considered, however, I believe there is a clear choice: Doug Elmendorf.Someon...more

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  • macroblog

    A Closer Look at Employment and Social Insurance

    The Atlanta Fed's Center for Human Capital Studies hosted its annual employment conference on October 2–3, 2014, organized once again by Richard Rogerson of Princeton University, Robert Shimer of the University of Chicago, and the Atlanta Fed's Melinda Pitts. This macroblog post summarizes some of the discussions. Social insurance programs in the United States and other developed countries represent a large and growing share of expenditures relative to gross domestic product (GDP). Assessing the costs and benefits of the diverse programs that make up the U.S. social insurance system is a key input into the design and implementation of effective programs. This conference featured seven papers that dealt with various aspects of this assessment. Although each progra...more

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  • Tim Duy's Fed Watch

    Dudley, Plosser, JOLTS, Potential Output

    Not enough time to do any of these topics justice, but some quick takeaways for the last two days. First, read today's speech by Federal Reserve President William Dudley in which he discusses the global implications of US monetary policy. Some keys points: 1. Still dismissing the recent drop in inflation expectations. Dudley says: In assessing inflation expectations, I currently put more weight on survey-based measures of inflation expectations as opposed to market-based measures.  Survey-based measures have been generally stable, consistent with inflation expectations remaining well-anchored.  However, market-based measures, such as those based on breakeven inflation derived from the difference between yields on nominal versus Treasury Inflation-Protected Securitie...more

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  • Robert Reich

    The Choice of the Century

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  • Tim Duy's Fed Watch

    Employment Report, Yellen Speech

    The October employment report was another solid albeit not spectacular read on the labor market.  Job growth remained above the 200k mark, extending the ever-so-slight acceleration over the past year: Upward revisions to the previous two months added another 31k jobs.  The acceleration is a bit more evident in the year-over-year picture, albeit still modest: The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% while the labor force participation rate ticked up.  The labor market picture in the context of indicators previously cited by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen looks like this: Looks like steady, ongoing progress to meeting the Federal Reserve's goals that remains fairly consistent with expectations for a mid-year rate hike. Wage growth remains anemic, but as regular read...more

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  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment October 2014

    Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 214,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 209,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment rate declined declined to 5.8% over the same period.Net private sector jobs increased 0.18% since last month climbing 2.24% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 1.82% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession. ...more

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  • Tim Duy's Fed Watch

    Nonsense

    I stumbled across this piece in The America Spectator in which the authors argue against the prospect of the Federal Reserve pursuing a "triple mandate" by adding inequality to the current mandate of price stability and maximum employment. They claim the current mandate itself is unworkable: ...Replace the Fed’s current dual mandate with a single mandate—keep the price system as honest and stable as possible. The dual mandate creates a contradictory tension that makes it practically impossible for the Fed to function effectively... ...The Fed currently finds itself unable to pursue that kind of price stability, because its unemployment mandate gets in the way. The Fed can induce a temporary boom by unexpectedly boosting inflation... ...If the Fed tinkers with inte...more

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  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    Jung Hyun Choi and I write about Income Inequality across Cities.

    We will be presenting at APPAM:This paper investigates why the level of income inequality differs across U.S. cites. We alsoexplore why some cities experienced faster increases in the level of inequality than others.Using the Decennial Census and the American Community Survey (ACS) from 1980 to 2011,we explore whether the disparities in the level and the changes in the level of inequality canbe explained by MSA characteristics, including labor market conditions, skill distribution,residential mobility, racial concentration, industrial composition and unionization. We alsoexamine how state level policies such as unemployment insurance benefits and minimumwage level is associated with income inequality.Our findings hows that negative labor market conditions, concentration...more

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  • The Baseline Scenario

    A Conference On Finance For Everyone Else

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  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    How people who can't do math get shafted.

    I have a car (an Accord, if you must know) that is 17 months old.  When I bought the car, the dealer offered me a car loan at 0 percent interest for 36 months, so I took it.  Even in the world of very low discount rates, accepting the loan allowed me to get a further small effective discount on the car.The dealer called me today, saying I could trade the car in for a new car and not increase my payment; the payment would simply reset for 36 months.  I told him I needed to do a little math before calling him back.  The math I did was as follows:Value of Old Car from Kelly Blue Book + PV of 36 months of payments = Cost of New Car.Cost of New Car - Edmunds Value of New Car = $6000.Yes, the dealer was trying to fool me into paying $6000 for...nothin...more

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  • The Street Light

    Transfer Pricing Economics

    I'd like to announce that after a long hiatus from blogging, I'm taking it up again in a new forum.  The new blog, Transfer Pricing Economics, is primarily devoted to exploring my particular area of professional specialty, namely "transfer pricing".  If that term doesn't mean anything to you, then feel free to check out my brief explanation of transfer pricing. My aim is to expose and analyze the connections between the arcane world of transfer pricing and broader developments in the economic and financial world. And the connections are significant: the rules and economic logic of transfer pricing have a direct impact on trillions of dollars of international trade every year. So please feel free to check in on and contribute to the discussions about these...more

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    Ex Ante versus Ex Post Social Policy

    I have written various posts on social policy related to the question of whether and how we redistribute income. One argument of equal opportunity and social egalitarianism is that it is fair to control for the randomness of life. For example, take the luck of the draw in who your parents are. If your best career choice was to be born into a wealthy family, if you got ahead because your father could pull strings to get you an internship at a big investment bank; because you built up your high school resume by spending a summer building houses in Tibet while a classmate had to spend the summer working at the 7-11; or because you could afford two years of one-on-one tutoring for the SAT, the result might be to score higher in an objective standard of selection and have a ...more

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  • The Baseline Scenario

    No, You Can’t Get a Drink at 5 AM

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Services, manufacturing, and new growth strategies

    I gave a talk yesterday on New Growth Strategies at the World Bank, which was more or less an elaboration of this short piece. I argued that industrialization had pretty much run out of steam as a growth strategy, that services would need to be the focus going forward, and that this required in turn a different policy mindset about how to increase productivity. In particular, I argued that policies focusing on generating a sequence of sectoral “winners,” which worked so  well in manufacturing (garments to car seats to cars to electronics), would have much smaller payoff in services, in view of the non-tradability of most service segments. I suggested further that, even under the best of circumstances, a services-oriented strategy would yield lower growth than ...more

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  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    September 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

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  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    The Return of Voodoo Economics

    Paul Krugman’s column in the New York Times today talked of the revival of “Voodoo economics” by some Republican politicians.  This refers to the Laffer Proposition that a cut in income tax rates stimulates economic activity so much that tax revenue goes up rather than down.   Gov. Sam Brownback, who is running for re-election in Kansas, has had to confront the reality that tax revenues went down, not up as he argued they would, when he cut state tax rates. I disagree with one thing that Krugman wrote in his column: the idea that there was a long break,  particularly after George W. Bush took office, during which Republican politicians did not push this line.  To the contrary, I have collected many quotes from George W. Bush and his top officials claiming the...more

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  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    How the price of a Martini reveals the property value of a city

    A Hendricks Gibson is basically a commodity (although the bartender does need to know what she is doing). But a good Gibson at the Starlight Lounge in LaCrosse, Wisconsin is $8; at the Roof Garden at the Peninsula Hotel in Beverly Hills is $16; at the King Cole Bar of the St. Regis Hotel in New York is $22. Let's say the cost of the cocktail, including labor, but exclusive of real estate, is $7. Then the implicit rent you are paying for sitting in a bar in LaCrosse is $1; in Beverly Hills on a rooftop is $9; and in NYC is $15. If one consults Zillow, one will find that this ratio of 1:9:15 for real estate in LaCrosse, BH and Manhattan is pretty close to the truth.One key thing--all these drinks are served in competitive markets--there is true thickness in bars in t...more

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  • Macro and Other Market Musings

    The Love Affair Conservatives Should Be Having

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  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    Piketty’s Fence

    Most of the reviews of Thomas Piketty’s book Capital in the Twenty-First Century have already been written.  But I thought it might be best to read it all the way through before offering my own thoughts on this book, which startlingly rose to the top of the best seller lists last April.  It has taken me five months, but I finished it. One of the things the book has in common with the Karl Marx’s Das Capital (1867) is that it serves as a rallying point for the many people who are passionately concerned about inequality, regardless whether they understand or agree with the specific arguments contained in the book in question.  To be fair, much of what Marx wrote was bizarre and very little was based on careful economic statistics.  Much of what Piketty says is ba...more

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  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    August 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Back to sanity on economic convergence

    It’s been interesting to watch how the conventional wisdom on rapid convergence – developing countries closing the gap with the advanced economies – has been changing over the last few years. It wasn’t so long ago that the world was in the grips of emerging-markets mania, projecting wildly optimistic growth numbers decades into the future. For the last 4-5 years, I have been writing that the pace of convergence we have experienced over the last two decades is unsustainable. There were temporary factors (cheap capital, low interest rates, high commodity prices, rapid Chinese expansion) which would begin to reverse themselves. And perhaps most importantly, export-oriented industrialization was running out of steam much earlier, even in the relatively successful co...more

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  • Macro and Other Market Musings

    Another Bond Market Conundrum?

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  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    Modi, Sisi & Jokowi: Three New Leaders Face the Challenge of Food & Fuel Subsidies

    In few policy areas does good economics seem to conflict so dramatically with good politics as in the practice of subsidies to food and energy.  Economics textbooks explain that these subsidies are lose-lose policies. In the political world that can sound like an ivory tower abstraction.   But the issue of unaffordable subsidies happens to be front and center politically now, in a number of places around the world.   Three major new leaders in particular are facing this challenge:  Sisi in Egypt, Jokowi in Indonesia, and Modi in India. The Egyptian leader is doing a much better job of facing up to the need to cut subsidies than one might have expected.  India’s new prime minister, by contrast, is doing worse than expected – even torpedoing a long-anticipated ...more

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  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    July 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    My moonlighting career of the last 4 years

    At long last, Turkey's consitutional court has reversed the conviction of the more than 200 officers previously found guilty in the bogus Sledgehammer coup plot, leading to the release on June 19th of all those in jail (including my father in law). Even though a retrial is to take place, the ruling is a coda to the last four-and-a-half years during which my wife and I moonlighted as criminal investigator, forensic analyst, and political activist. It has been a truly surreal and bizarre experience, given how so many intelligent people bought into -- and refused let go of -- a coup plot that was patently fictitious.     So I thought this would be a good time to post a longish account of my involvement in the story. I wrote it as much to make sense of it to...more

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Farewell

    In memoriam: Gary S. Becker, 1930-2014. The Becker-Posner blog is terminated. Richard A. Posner

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Sabbatical Notice

    Starting this weekend, we will be taking a one-month sabbatical from blogging. We will resume at the end of that period.

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    The Embargo of Cuba: Time to Go- Becker

    The US embargo of Cuba began in 1960, a year after Fidel Castro turned this island toward communism. It was extended to food and medicines in 1962, the same year as the showdown with Russia over the installation of missiles there. The embargo has prevented American companies from doing business with Cuba, and discouraged tourism to Cuba. The American government also tried with quite limited success to prevent other countries from trading with Cuba. In general economic embargoes are undesirable because they interfere with free trade among countries. Yet a case could be made for an embargo against Cuba. Castro not only allowed Russian missiles to be installed in Cuba, just 90 miles from Florida, but was also actively trying to interfere in other countries by sending troop...more

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  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Capital Gains And Games Now Being Published By Forbes

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  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Big Changes Are Coming To Capital Gains And Games

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  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Camp Plan Puts Nail In Tax Reform Coffin For This Year, And Next, And...

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  • democracyarsenal.org

    Can the F-35 Replace the A-10?

    by Nickolai Sukharev  One of the big decisions the United States Air Force has considered over the last few months is whether to retire the A-10 Thunderbolt II fleet as a cost saving measure while developing and procuring the F-35A Lightening II. Given the Budget Control Act caps on Pentagon spending and the need to better allocate funds, officials have expressed their preference to prioritize multi-mission platforms in the inventory. But the problem is that the F-35A is not a replacement for the A-10’s close air support. The reason is simple: it lacks comparable capabilities despite a higher operating cost. Given the constrained budgetary environment, the comparative cost to maintain and operate the two aircraft should be a decisive consideration. The A-10 is a...more

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  • democracyarsenal.org

    After Geneva Talks A Consensus on Moving Forward

    By Homa Hassan The two-day round of P5+1 negotiations with Iran just concluded in Geneva and Western diplomats are carefully reviewing a detailed proposal presented by Iran. As this proposal is being reviewed ahead of the follow-on meetings in November it is important to look at what the realistic prospects of a deal will look like. Going into this week’s talks, a number of commentaries came out attempting to set negotiations up for failure. However, it is widely agreed that a negotiated solution to Iran’s controversial nuclear program is the best way to achieve a sustainable solution and a recent survey of reports and recommendations from bipartisan think tanks and high-level experts demonstrates a broad consensus on how to approach negotiations a...more

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  • democracyarsenal.org

    TPP, TTIP and Getting America's Competitiveness Back on Track

    By Marcela Heywood Last week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bali, Indonesia marked further progress for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and set an ambitious goal to finish negotiations by the end of the year. Although the U.S. government shutdown – and President Obama’s absence in Bali – did not hinder the trade talks, it did call America’s credibility into question. Government shutdown could threaten both TPP and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations by displaying uncertainty in U.S. economic and foreign policy priorities. Congress needs to reach an agreement and prioritize TPP and TTIP, as they are necessary policy initiatives to boost American competitiveness, stimulate the economy, and exert soft power to cr...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-09

    Given that I block NSA & PRISM tweets, was entertaining tuning into twitter & trying to figure why everyone was on about Lord Snowdon -> Turned on GoT tonight just in time to catch Daenerys reenacting her Level 2 YMCA gymnastics pageant. -> How Not to Be Alone | Jonathan Safran Foer – http://t.co/HMFxg75lfh http://t.co/DzAtvWBQJr -> Excellent, but fellow sports-med geeks only: Sports and exercise-related tendinopathies: a review – http://t.co/WGkhRlO6Uz -> ...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-07

    Photo-set: Flooding Across Central Europe – http://t.co/8G6j8teCbd -> CDC Update: Severe Respiratory Illness Associated with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus – http://t.co/hWqN1338VN -> Col Flagg: Have you ever heard of Malaysian Chest Implosion Torture? Radar: No. Coll Flagg: Good. It hasn’t been invented… yet. -> tl;dr: There are Manchurian Candidate engineers at large tech cos that have stolen SSL root cert and NSA is using it for cattle mutilation. -> Brian: …Will you please listen? I'm not the Messiah! Do you understand? Honestly Woman: Only the true Messiah denies his divinity! -> ...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-05

    FRED: Free Energy Data – http://t.co/90H7GVDazO -> Solipsisms ‘r’ us, courtesy of my friends at @thinkup: I apparently mention me a lot – http://t.co/9rTRXvBM9D -> Almost 10,000 words on soccer/Italy/economics/racism by @wrightthompson? Yes, & it’s super. Go. http://t.co/g4sgEFLkIC -> When The Beautiful Game Turns Ugly: A journey into the world of Italy's racist soccer thugs http://t.co/nckrbeLPfs -> Can’t remember last time I read an OpEd or column. Do those still exist? -> ...more

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  • The Street Light

    Cyprus and Eurozone Bank Deposits

    To me, the central issue raised by this week's Cyprus debacle is how it has affected confidence across the eurozone.  To what degree has the possibility of insured depositors at a eurozone bank losing a portion of their deposits affected the mindset of depositors?  To what degree has ECB acquiescence to this possibility undermined the notion that deposit insurance in the eurozone means the same thing in all countries?  And to what degree has the ECB's direct threat to end support for Cyprus's banking system in the event that the government of Cyprus can not arrange sufficient funds to meet its conditions made a farce of its earlier promise to "do whatever it takes to preserve the euro"?These, to me, are the interesting questions prompted by this week's ev...more

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  • The Street Light

    When the Fed Chair is an Academic

    The big economic news of the week was, in fact, big economic news: the Fed's announcement of significant changes from past practice in the the quantity of its next round of large scale asset purchases ("unlimited"), and in the timing of any future reversal of this expansionary policy ("a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens").I view this as a pretty fundamental shift in how the Fed hopes to affect the economy.  Rather than trying to push economic activity one way or the other through its management of interest rates (which can alter economic activity through its portfolio-rebalancing and wealth effects, for example), the Fed is now quite explicitly trying to affect economic activity by altering interest rate and inflation expectations.  As...more

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  • TPMCafe

    Message to world government: Don't govern the Internet

    You could think of the Aspen IDEA report published today as a letter to the head of the International Telecommunications Union, Hamadoun Touré, suggesting that he should reconsider his intent to put the "light touch" of government on the Internet's operations. M. Touré will be running a major meeting of world governments in Dubai at the end of this year. The Dubai meeting, known as WCIT 12, may have an agenda that is a light touch only if that's what you can call a grab for the jugular vein of the Internet. The issues may include a "per click" tax on international Internet traffic, individual nation state regulation identities to online activity, national encryption standards to allow government surveillance, and multinational governance of the Internet. Russia, Chi...more

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  • TPMCafe

    Obama and Romney on Foreign Policy - Drawing the Contrasts

    The political battle lines are being drawn for the general election debate over foreign policy and national security, and you can't do much better than my fellow Democracy Arsenal blogger Michael Cohen for a guide. One key theme of Michael's latest column for ForeignPolicy.com is what a difference it makes for a candidate to bear the responsibility of governing, or on the other hand, campaign to be commander in chief on the basis of self-serving pot shots. My only quibble regards how Romney's reed-thin foreign policy argument will fare with voters. Take Michael's analysis of Romney's potential advantage in the debate on Iran: He can simply lob rhetorical haymakers that hype up the threat of an Iranian bomb or offer Churchillian declarations about his intention to stop...more

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  • TPMCafe

    Will Yale's Alumni Save Liberal Education?

    Hoping to head off alumni resistance to the brand-new "Yale-National University of Singapore" college that the Yale Corporation has created somewhat stealthily in collaboration with the government of that authoritarian city-state, Association of Yale Alumni chairman Michael Madison has inadvertently demonstrated one of the ways Yale College is being transformed from a crucible of civic-republican leadership, grounded in liberal education, into a global career-networking center and cultural galleria for a new elite that answers to no polity or moral code: STATEMENT OF THE OFFICERS OF THE AYA BOARD OF GOVERNORS, Michael Madison, Chair of the Board "All Yale-NUS College graduates will be warmly welcomed as a part of the Yale alumni community. They will also be invited...more

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Blogger Spotlight

Emre Deliveli The Kapali Carsi

Emre Deliveli is a freelance consultant, part-time lecturer in economics and columnist. Previously, Emre worked as economist for Citi Istanbul, covering Turkey and the Balkans. He was previously Director of Economic Studies at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey in Ankara and has has also worked at the World Bank, OECD, McKinsey and the Central Bank of Turkey. Emre holds a B.A., summa cum laude, from Yale University and undertook his PhD studies at Harvard University, in Economics.

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