EconoMonitor

Economics Blog Aggregator

    United States

  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    A Public-Service Announcement: Twitter Is Dangerous...: Live from Crows Coffee

    Twitter should only be used for: links to things you think people ought to read. praise of others. laments that you have been misinterpreted, and that all nuance has been lost because of the limits of 140 characters. For example, last week: @jacobwe: New "plagiarism" charges against @FareedZakaria are silly. @jacobwe: Here's the full @FareedZakaria rap sheet. Totally off base, IMO. http://t.co/3livp8ilkl @blippoblappo: Hey Jacob, is Fareed Zakaria plagiarizing in a Slate column "silly" to you? https://ourbadmedia.wordpress.com/2014/09/24/yes-the-indefensible-fareed-zakaria-also-plagiarized-in-his-fancy-liquor-columns-for-slate/ @jacobwe @fareedzakaria @crushingbort: Yes, The Indefensible Fareed Zakaria Also Plagiarized In His Fancy Liquor Columns For Slate http://...more

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    The IMF on Infrastructure

    The IMF endorses the free-lunch view of infrastructure spending. That is, an IMF study suggests that the expansionary effects are sufficiently large that debt-financed infrastructure spending could reduce the debt-GDP ratio over time.  Certainly this outcome is theoretically possible (just like self-financing tax cuts), but you can count me as skeptical about how often it will occur in practice (just like self-financing tax cuts).  The human tendency for wishful thinking and the desire to avoid hard tradeoffs are so common that it is dangerous for a prominent institution like the IMF to encourage free-lunch thinking....more

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  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Liveblogging World War I: October 1, 2014: The Battle of Arras

    Battle of Arras (1914) - Wikipedia: The Tenth Army, led by General Louis Maud'huy, attacked advancing German forces on 1 October and reached Douai, where the German 6th Army under Crown Prince Rupprecht counter-attacked, as three corps of the German 1st, 2nd and 7th armies attacked further south. The French were forced to withdraw towards Arras and Lens was occupied by German forces on 4 October. Attempts to encircle Arras from the north were defeated and both sides used reinforcements to try another flanking move further north at the Battle of La Bassée.... The reciprocal flanking moves ended in Flanders, when both sides reached the North Sea coast and then attempted breakthrough attacks.... On 28 September, Falkenhayn ordered that all available troops were to...more

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  • The Big Picture

    10 Wednesday AM Reads

    Welcome to October — my favorite month! We do occasionally have some (ahem) disruptions in the markets, it is the transitional period from September, the worst month to the best 6 months of the year.  Read all about it: • Bill Gross, Calpers and the End of the Investment Guru (Upshot) see also The moment Bill Gross’ days at Pimco became numbered: A broker’s view (LA Times) • Luster Restored: Huge demand for classic cars revs up interest in refurbishments (Barron’s Penta) • Abenomics: will the sun rise on Japan again?  (Telegraph) see also Helicopter money: The best policy to address high public debt and deflation (VoXeu) • Malcolm Gladwell’s 10,000 Hour Rule for deliberate practice is wrong: Practice Does Not Make Perfect (Slate) ...more

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  • Calculated Risk

    MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease Slightly in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

    From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease Slightly in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 0.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, 2014. ...The Refinance Index decreased 0.3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index remained unchanged from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 11 percent lower than the same week one year ago. ......The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to 4.33 percent from 4.39 percent, with points decreasing to 0.31 f...more

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  • naked capitalism

    Links 10/1/14

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  • naked capitalism

    David Sirota: Naked Capitalism – Financial Journalists’ Secret Weapon

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  • The Capital Spectator

    Major Asset Classes | Sep 2014 | Performance Review

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  • The Big Picture

    Declining Homeownership among “Prime” First-Time Home Buying Candidates

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  • naked capitalism

    Bill Black: Fed Failure – A “Perfectly Legal” Scam is Perfectly Unacceptable to Real Regulators

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  • Beat the Press

    Economists and Uber

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  • Beat the Press

    Silly Budget Reporting Goes to France

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  • Beat the Press

    Abuses of Patent Monopolies #45,764: Drug Company Payments to Doctors

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  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    Bits Bucket for October 1, 2014

    Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.

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  • Economist's View

    Links for 10-01-14

    Now Is a Good Time to Invest in Infrastructure - iMFdirect Helicopter money: Today’s best policy option - vox Lawrence Summers Says Treasury Undermined Fed - NYTimes.com Explaining the Hegemony of New Classical Economics - Uneasy Money The Pimco Perplex - Paul Krugman Re-discovering the Phillips curve - vox The deficit: blame foreigners - Chris Dillow Deindustrialization Redeploys Workers to Service Sector - Sposi and Grossman Do Unemployment Benefits Expirations Explain Job Openings? - Liberty Street Government Debt Management at the Zero Lower Bound - Jerome Powell Apple set to lose billions in EU state aid case - Kenneth Thomas What the left hand buyeth, the right hand issueth - longandvariable Energy-Efficient Appliances: Labels, not Subsidies - Tim Taylor Ed Yar...more

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  • ProfessorBainbridge.com

    "More on LLCs as Non-Signatories of Operating Agreements . . ."

    From Joan Heminway. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    What is the relevant bias when Westerners try to predict what Chinese leaders will do?

    I see a whole bunch of candidates here, each backed by a broadly plausible psychological story: 1. They are more ruthless than we realize. 2. They are more like us than we realize. 2b. #1 and #2. 3. They have longer time horizons than we imagine. 4. Due to extreme political constraints, they have far shorter time horizons than we think. 5. They are more inured to the risk of economic depression and hardship than we grasp. 6. They are more obsessed with parallels to earlier Chinese history than a typical Westerner would find natural. 7. They are less rational than social science rational choice models would predict, having one or two major blind spots on matters of critical importance. 8. All of the above. 9. Good luck. ...more

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    The CIA Starbucks (intelligence markets in everything)

    Emily Wax-Thibodeaux reports: The new supervisor thought his idea was innocent enough. He wanted the baristas to write the names of customers on their cups to speed up lines and ease confusion, just like other Starbucks do around the world. But these aren’t just any customers. They are regulars at the CIA Starbucks. “They could use the alias ‘Polly-O string cheese’ for all I care,” said a food services supervisor at the Central Intelligence Agency, asking that his identity remain unpublished for security reasons. “But giving any name at all was making people — you know, the undercover agents — feel very uncomfortable. It just didn’t work for this location.” This purveyor of skinny lattes and double cappuccinos is deep inside the agency’s forested L...more

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  • Fabius Maximus

    New technology makes wild subprime auto lending easy and profitable

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  • All HW content

    Trulia: Home prices 3% undervalued by historic measure

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  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Over at Equitable Growth: Ebola Virus Talking Points: Wednesday Focus for October 1, 2014

    Over at Equitable Growth: Lives lost from Ebola to date are tiny, even in West Africa, compared to HIV, TB, and malaria. Ebola still not (yet) the biggest public health problem in West Africa. Yes, the epidemic will spread to more countries. Ebola will not become the biggest public health problem in West Africa unless deaths reach the high seven figures--which they may: it is highly likely that deaths in the six figures are now baked in the cake. Unless the virus changes dramatically, we are almost surely safe. If you want to worry, worry that influenza or something already airborne will become more deadly, not that Ebola will become airborne. Those at risk from the Ebola virus are overwhelmingly (a) those who love them and (b) those medical professionals who treat th...more

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    The Vioxx Ban: Ten Years On

    (Don Boudreaux) Intrigued by G. Pyle pointing me to a Cafe Hayek post of exactly three years ago, I went – just out of curiosity – to see what was posted at the Cafe exactly ten years ago today.  Here’s the last of three Cafe posts from September 30, 2004.  (Wow!  It doesn’t seem to have been that long ago.  Time do fly.) ...more

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Competition Takes Many Forms

    (Don Boudreaux) “G. Pyle” – who describes himself or herself as “a darn reg’lar” Cafe patron – points out to me by e-mail that the Quotation of the Day from exactly three years ago, one from the great Harold Demsetz, is relevant to today’s earlier letter to Paul Krugman. ...more

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  • Calculated Risk

    Wednesday: Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing, ADP Employment, Q3 Office Vacancies, Construction Spending

    Wednesday will be busy! First, from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Registers August GainDriven by stronger same-store sales and customer traffic levels and a more optimistic outlook among restaurant operators, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) posted a solid gain in August. The RPI – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 101.9 in August, up 1.0 percent from July and its first gain in three months. In addition, the RPI stood above 100 for the 18th consecutive month, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.“The August gain in the RPI was fueled by stronger same-store sales and customer traffic ...more

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  • All HW content

    Judge throws out Fannie and Freddie investors’ lawsuit

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  • The Big Picture

    Open Secret of Libor Manipulation

    Open Secret: The Global Banking Conspiracy That Swindled Investors Out of Billions is the new book written by Erin Arvedlund. The book goes behind the scenes of the elite firms that trafficked in LiBOR based products, including Barclays Capital, UBS, Rabobank, and Citigroup to show the negative impact they had on both ordinary investors and borrowers. Erin’s claim to fame was a column she wrote in Barron’s in the early 2000s outing Bernie Madoff as a fraud. It was a national bestseller titled Too Good to Be True. Here is Yahoo: “LIBOR, the London Interbank Offered Rate, is a global benchmark for interest rates. It’s tied to everything from mortgage rates and student loan rates to complex financial derivatives. And guess what? For a very long time i...more

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  • All HW content

    Forsythe Appraisals adds Richard Shackelford as VP of business development

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  • ProfessorBainbridge.com

    The need for proxy advisor reform

    David Katz on the problems posed by the rise of proxy advisors: Commentators have for years lamented the undue influence of proxy advisory firms in corporate elections. James R. Copland of the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] ...more

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  • ProfessorBainbridge.com

    Are people organized as corporations entitled to constitutional rights?

    Ilya Somin discusses the titular question. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

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  • Calculated Risk

    Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate below 2% in August, Lowest since October 2008

    Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in August to 1.99% from 2.00% in July. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.61% in August 2013, and this is the lowest level since October 2008. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.Freddie Mac has not reported for August yet.Note: These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".Click on graph for larger imageThe Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.62 percentage points over the last year, and at that pace the serious delinquency rate will be under 1% in 2016 - although the rate of decline has slowed recently.Note: The "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%.Maybe serious de...more

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    The return to education in France?

    Pierre Mouganie has a new paper: In 1997, the French government put into effect a law that permanently exempted young French male citizens born after Jan 1, 1979 from mandatory military service while still requiring those born before that cutoff date to serve. This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to identify the effect of peacetime conscription on education and labor market outcomes. Results indicate that conscription eligibility induces a significant increase in years of education, which is consistent with conscription avoidance behavior. However, this increased education does not result in either an increase in graduation rates, or in employment and wages. Additional evidence shows conscription has no direct effect on earnings, suggesting that the returns...more

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  • Economist's View

    Highest Ranked, but It's Not Good News

    Martin Wolf, in "Why inequality is such a drag on economies": ...in 2012, says the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the US ranked highest among the high-income countries in the share of relatively low-paying jobs. ......more

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Frank Questions for Paul Krugman

    (Don Boudreaux) Here’s a letter to Paul Krugman: Mr. Krugman: On your blog recently you wrote that conspicuous spending by the rich “imposes negative externalities on the rest of the population” (“Having It and Flaunting It,” Sept. 24).  You are here, I assume, endorsing the argument made by Cornell economist Robert Frank that when ordinary people see rich people consuming conspicuously they suffer mental distress - and they deal with this distress by working too hard, spending too much, and going into excessive debt in order to try to mimic the consumption patterns of the rich.  Also, like Prof. Frank you propose to rid society of this negative externality by taxing the incomes of the rich much more heavily. I’ve some questions for you. - In other ...more

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  • Paul Krugman

    The Pimco Perplex

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  • The Capital Spectator

    ISM Manufacturing Index: September 2014 Preview

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  • Econbrowser

    A Fiscal Tale of Two States: Minnesota vs. Wisconsin

    The two neighboring states of Wisconsin and Minnesota share a similar economic structure and size; and yet their fortunes have diverged over the past three years. One correlate of Wisconsin’s growth deficit is state and local government spending. First, let’s document Wisconsin’s lagging performance along three dimensions — gross state product, a high frequency indicator of economic activity from the Philadelphia Fed, and nonfarm payroll employment. Figure 1: Minnesota-Wisconsin log gross state product cumulative growth differential (3 quarter centered moving average), in Ch.09$ (blue), log coincident indicators (red), and log nonfarm payroll employment (teal), all 2011Q1=0. 2014Q3 observations based on two months. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed...more

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  • The Baseline Scenario

    Game of Thrones, The Wire, and the New York Fed

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  • Economist's View

    'Why Have Policymakers Abandoned the Working Class?'

    I have a new column: Why Have Policymakers Abandoned the Working Class?, by Mark Thoma: The risks associated with a negative economic shock can vary widely depending on the wealth of a household. Wealthy households can, of course, absorb a shock much easier than poorer households. Thus, it’s important to think about how economic downturns impact various groups within the economy, and how policy can be used to offset the problems experienced by the most vulnerable among us. When thinking about the effects of an increase in the Fed’s target interest rate, for example, it’s important to consider the impacts across income groups. I was very pleased to hear monetary policymakers talk about the asymmetric risks associated with increasing the interest rate too soon and s...more

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  • Paul Krugman

    What’s the Matter With Alabama?

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  • The Capital Spectator

    ADP Employment Report: September 2014 Preview

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  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    The Price Is Too High, Will Keep Going Up

    A report from China Daily. “China will abolish all home purchase restrictions in the next 12 months and cut at least one policy rate in the first half of 2015 or before, said Shen Minggao, head of China research with Citigroup Inc. ‘Look around the world. No country keeps monetary policy unchanged when a correction starts in the property sector,’ Shen said in an interview. Most people agree that China’s property market is cooling, but they are divided about how the government should react. Some said more easing would further inflate the property bubble and lead to a systemic financial crisis. ‘Sure, there is a bubble, but the bubble does not have to burst now,’ Shen said.” The Australian. “Sydney couple Daniel Yuen and Hua...more

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  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    Bits Bucket for September 30, 2014

    Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.

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  • Paul Krugman

    Mr. Krugman and the Classics (Trivial and Self-Indulgent)

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  • macroblog

    On Bogs and Dots

    Consider this scenario. You travel out of town to meet up with an old friend. Your hotel is walking distance to the appointed meeting place, across a large grassy field with which you are unfamiliar. With good conditions, the walk is about 30 minutes but, to you, the quality of the terrain is not so certain. Though nobody seems to be able to tell you for sure, you believe that there is a 50-50 chance that the field is a bog, intermittently dotted with somewhat treacherous swampy traps. Though you believe you can reach your destination in about 30 minutes, the better part of wisdom is to go it slow. You accordingly allot double the time for traversing the field to your destination. During your travels, of course, you will learn something about the nature of the field, a...more

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  • Robert Reich

    Why the Economy is Still Failing Most Americans

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  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    The Southwest housing mania is overheating: California, Arizona, and Nevada leading the way once again with unaffordable housing markets.

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  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    How the price of a Martini reveals the property value of a city

    A Hendricks Gibson is basically a commodity (although the bartender does need to know what she is doing). But a good Gibson at the Starlight Lounge in LaCrosse, Wisconsin is $8; at the Roof Garden at the Peninsula Hotel in Beverly Hills is $16; at the King Cole Bar of the St. Regis Hotel in New York is $22. Let's say the cost of the cocktail, including labor, but exclusive of real estate, is $7. Then the implicit rent you are paying for sitting in a bar in LaCrosse is $1; in Beverly Hills on a rooftop is $9; and in NYC is $15. If one consults Zillow, one will find that this ratio of 1:9:15 for real estate in LaCrosse, BH and Manhattan is pretty close to the truth.One key thing--all these drinks are served in competitive markets--there is true thickness in bars in t...more

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  • Fabius Maximus

    “The Lone Ranger” shows Hollywood’s new paradigm, since films were too deep for us

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  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    How Piketty's care with language can improve economics

    When I was a freshman in college, I read Fogel and Engerman's Time on the Cross.  I loathed the book, because it implicitly endorsed the idea that it is OK, "in the interested of science," to dehumanize those African-Americans that were placed in bondage by viewing them as capital (I loathed it for other reasons as well, but that is for another time.) It also contributed to the broad view currently within much of mainstream economics that it is (1) acceptable to treat human beings as objects, and (2) that it is embarrassing to embrace humanity.  I was embarrassed that the book helped Fogel ultimately won the Nobel Prize in economics.I thought of Fogel and Engerman again when a recent review in the Economist of Edward Bishop's The Half Has Never Been Told compl...more

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  • Econbrowser

    Thank Goodness Wisconsin Turned Down High Speed Rail!

    From “Fast trains, supply networks, and firm performance” in VoxEU: We find that sales and measured productivity rose substantially for firms near the new (high speed rail) stations after the opening. Firms in industries with greater purchased input shares outperformed firms in industries with lower purchased input shares. So Wisconsin dodged the fate of having higher firm productivity. The report is authored by Bernard, Moxnes, and Saito. ...more

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  • Econbrowser

    The Rising Dollar and Macroeconomic and Policy Prospects

    From Buoyant Dollar Recovers Its Luster, Underlining Rebound in U.S. Economy in today’s NY Times: The United States dollar, after one of its most prolonged weak spells ever, has now re-emerged as the preferred currency for global investors. Across trading desks in New York, London and elsewhere, analysts are rushing to raise their dollar forecasts based on the resurgence in the American economy. This confidence is buttressed by today’s third release of the 2014Q2 GDP report, which revised upward q/q growth to 4.6% (SAAR). [1] It’s interesting to note where analysts locate the source of the dollar’s strength: …the increasing push by investors into the dollar can be seen as a favorable report card on the United States economy, highlighting ...more

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    Predicting the Nobel

    Science Watch offers their choices.

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  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    Real Homes of Genius: Pasadena small home market. Quick sales and people targeting foreign buyers.

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  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued September 25 2014

    Today’s jobless claims report showed an increase to both initial and continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained below the closely watched 300K level. Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased 12,000 to 293,000 claims from 281,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims increased by 7,000 to 2.439 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.8%. ...more

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  • The Baseline Scenario

    New Collection on Medium

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    Monetary Policy Rules

    Here is a website that gives up-to-date graphs of several policy rules.

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  • Fabius Maximus

    A new world comes, probably one with no place for our “lords of finance”

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  • Tim Duy's Fed Watch

    Fisher on Wages

    Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said Friday the US economy was threatend by higher wages.  Via Reuters: Fisher said on Friday he worries that further declines in unemployment nationally could lead to broader wage inflation. To head that off, and also to address what he called rising excesses in financial markets, Fisher said he prefers to raise rates by springtime, sooner than many investors currently anticipate. After a snarky tweet, I wondered if he was not misquoted or misinterpreted.  But he definitely warns that wage growth is set to accelerate in his Fox News interview (begin at the 3:50 mark).  The crux of his argument is that wage growth accelerates when unemployment hits 6.1% and he uses strong wage growth in Texas as an example.  He seem...more

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  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    Turning the nation into permanent renters: Stagnant household incomes and growing renter class strikes at core of home ownership.

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  • Macro and Other Market Musings

    The Love Affair Conservatives Should Be Having

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  • Tim Duy's Fed Watch

    Hawkish Undertone

     The Fed continuous to moves toward policy normalization.   Slowly. Very slowly.   They believe they are making every effort to avoid a premature withdrawal of accommodation. Every step is sequenced. And that sequencing did not allow for the removal of the considerable period language just yet.    That said, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen noted in the associated press conference that, considerable period or not, the statement does not represent a promise to maintain a particular policy path. Moreover, the ambiguous definition of "considerable time" gives the Fed sufficient flexibility without breaking a promise in any event. Assuming asset prices end in October as the Fed expects, even a rate hike as early as March could still be considered a "considerable pe...more

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  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    Piketty’s Fence

    Most of the reviews of Thomas Piketty’s book Capital in the Twenty-First Century have already been written.  But I thought it might be best to read it all the way through before offering my own thoughts on this book, which startlingly rose to the top of the best seller lists last April.  It has taken me five months, but I finished it. One of the things the book has in common with the Karl Marx’s Das Capital (1867) is that it serves as a rallying point for the many people who are passionately concerned about inequality, regardless whether they understand or agree with the specific arguments contained in the book in question.  To be fair, much of what Marx wrote was bizarre and very little was based on careful economic statistics.  Much of what Piketty says is ba...more

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  • Robert Reich

    Why Ordinary People Bear Economic Risks and Donald Trump Doesn't

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  • The Baseline Scenario

    Changes

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  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    August 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

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  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    Industrial Production: August 2014

    Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing a decrease in August with total industrial production falling 0.10% since July but still rising 4.12% above the level seen in August 2013. Capacity utilization also declined falling 0.37% from July but rising 1.23% above the level seen in August 2013 to stand at 78.81% ...more

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  • macroblog

    The Changing State of States' Economies

    Timely data on the economic health of individual states recently came from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The new quarterly state-level gross domestic product (GDP) series begins in 2005 and runs through the fourth quarter of 2013. The map below offers a look at how states have fared since 2005 relative to the economic performance of the nation as a whole. Learn About Tableau It’s interesting to see the map depict an uneven expansion between the second quarter of 2005 and the peak of the cycle in the fourth quarter of 2007. By the fourth quarter of 2008, most parts of the country were experiencing declines in GDP. The U.S. economy hit a trough during the second quarter of 2009, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, but 20 states an...more

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  • Robert Reich

    Harvard Business School's Role in Widening Inequality

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Back to sanity on economic convergence

    It’s been interesting to watch how the conventional wisdom on rapid convergence – developing countries closing the gap with the advanced economies – has been changing over the last few years. It wasn’t so long ago that the world was in the grips of emerging-markets mania, projecting wildly optimistic growth numbers decades into the future. For the last 4-5 years, I have been writing that the pace of convergence we have experienced over the last two decades is unsustainable. There were temporary factors (cheap capital, low interest rates, high commodity prices, rapid Chinese expansion) which would begin to reverse themselves. And perhaps most importantly, export-oriented industrialization was running out of steam much earlier, even in the relatively successful co...more

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  • Tim Duy's Fed Watch

    Forward Guidance Heading for a Change

    The lackluster August employment report clearly defied expectations (including my own) for a strong number to round out the generally positive pattern of recent data.  That said, one number does not make a trend, and the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls is notoriously volatile.  The underlying pattern of improvement remains in tact, and thus the employment report did not alleviate the need to adjust the Fed's forward guidance, allow there is a less pressing need to do so at the next meeting.  In any event, the days of the "considerable time" language are numbered. Nonfarm payrolls gained just 142k in August while the unemployment rate ticked back down to 6.1%.  In general, the employment report is consistent with steady progress in the context of data that Fed Ch...more

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  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment August 2014

    Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in August, net non-farm payrolls increased by 142,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 134,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment rate declined to 6.1% over the same period.Net private sector jobs increased 0.11% since last month climbing 2.12% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 1.34% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession. ...more

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  • Macro and Other Market Musings

    Another Bond Market Conundrum?

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  • macroblog

    What Kind of Job for Part-Time Pat?

    As anyone who follows macroblog knows, we have been devoting a lot of attention recently to the issue of people working part-time for economic reasons (PTER), which means people who want full-time work but have not yet been able to find it. As of July 2014, the number of people working PTER stood at around 7.5 million. This level is down from a peak of almost 9 million in 2011 but is still more than 3 million higher than before the Great Recession. That doesn’t mean they won’t ever find full-time work in the future, but their chances are a lot lower than in the past. Consider Pat, for example. Pat was working PTER at some point during a given year and was also employed 12 months later. At the later date, Pat is either working full-time, still working PTER, ...more

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  • Macro and Other Market Musings

    About the Fed Not Trying Hard Enough To Hit Its Inflation Target

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  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    Modi, Sisi & Jokowi: Three New Leaders Face the Challenge of Food & Fuel Subsidies

    In few policy areas does good economics seem to conflict so dramatically with good politics as in the practice of subsidies to food and energy.  Economics textbooks explain that these subsidies are lose-lose policies. In the political world that can sound like an ivory tower abstraction.   But the issue of unaffordable subsidies happens to be front and center politically now, in a number of places around the world.   Three major new leaders in particular are facing this challenge:  Sisi in Egypt, Jokowi in Indonesia, and Modi in India. The Egyptian leader is doing a much better job of facing up to the need to cut subsidies than one might have expected.  India’s new prime minister, by contrast, is doing worse than expected – even torpedoing a long-anticipated ...more

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  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    Has Italy Really “Gone Back Into Recession”?

     Has Italy Really “Gone Back Into Recession”? Italians and the world have now been told that their economy slipped back into recession in the first half of 2014.  This characterization is based on the criterion for recession that is standard in Europe and most countries:  two successive quarters of negative growth.  But if the criteria for determining recessions in European countries were similar to those used in the United States, this new downturn would be a continuation of the 2012 recession in Italy, not a new one.  A common-sense look at the graph below suggests the same conclusion: the 2013 “recovery” is barely visible. Worse, Italy under U.S. standards would probably be treated as having been in the same horrific six-year recession ever s...more

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  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    July 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

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  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    June 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    My moonlighting career of the last 4 years

    At long last, Turkey's consitutional court has reversed the conviction of the more than 200 officers previously found guilty in the bogus Sledgehammer coup plot, leading to the release on June 19th of all those in jail (including my father in law). Even though a retrial is to take place, the ruling is a coda to the last four-and-a-half years during which my wife and I moonlighted as criminal investigator, forensic analyst, and political activist. It has been a truly surreal and bizarre experience, given how so many intelligent people bought into -- and refused let go of -- a coup plot that was patently fictitious.     So I thought this would be a good time to post a longish account of my involvement in the story. I wrote it as much to make sense of it to...more

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Joining Global Policy as general editor

    David Held is one of the most thoughtful researchers and commentators on global issues, so I am thrilled and honored to be joining forces with him as joint general editor of Global Policy. The journal publishes a range of exciting academic and policy oriented pieces. Check it out here....more

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Farewell

    In memoriam: Gary S. Becker, 1930-2014. The Becker-Posner blog is terminated. Richard A. Posner

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    Piketty Myopia

    Thomas Piketty's book Capital in the Twenty-First Century has been lauded for its detailed analysis of data and for the end result of that analysis, a sweeping statement of an inexorable widening of the distribution of wealth between those with capital and those without. There is unabashed glee among those who have bemoaned the plight of the middle class as the one percent has pulled away, waving the book as the gotcha ya for income redistribution.  As should be clear from some of my previous posts, I am one of those people bemoaning the plight, but I am a little slower than many others to take up the Piketty banner. The book's argument looks at wealth and growth data over the past three centuries, and takes its implications forward with a similar, historical scope...more

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    Big Data versus the SAT

    In a recent Time Magazine article, the president of Bard College, Leon Botstein, joined a chorus of criticism of the SAT, going so far as to call it “part hoax and part fraud.”  Criticism is coming fast and furious because the SAT has just unveiled a new, improved product to try to fend off a trend among competitive colleges to downplay the role of the SAT, and even to eliminate its use entirely.  (The not-for-profit status of the College Board, which produces the SAT, does not put the company beyond reacting to a profit motive; not-for-profit does not exactly mean you don’t get benefits from pulling in more revenue). Among the critiques are that performance during one afternoon in the junior year of high school should not govern a student’s future (th...more

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Sabbatical Notice

    Starting this weekend, we will be taking a one-month sabbatical from blogging. We will resume at the end of that period.

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    The Embargo of Cuba: Time to Go- Becker

    The US embargo of Cuba began in 1960, a year after Fidel Castro turned this island toward communism. It was extended to food and medicines in 1962, the same year as the showdown with Russia over the installation of missiles there. The embargo has prevented American companies from doing business with Cuba, and discouraged tourism to Cuba. The American government also tried with quite limited success to prevent other countries from trading with Cuba. In general economic embargoes are undesirable because they interfere with free trade among countries. Yet a case could be made for an embargo against Cuba. Castro not only allowed Russian missiles to be installed in Cuba, just 90 miles from Florida, but was also actively trying to interfere in other countries by sending troop...more

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  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Capital Gains And Games Now Being Published By Forbes

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  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Big Changes Are Coming To Capital Gains And Games

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  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Camp Plan Puts Nail In Tax Reform Coffin For This Year, And Next, And...

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  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    Hannah Harris Green in The Guardian on Race, Crime and Television

    She writes:The First 48 is an A&E true crime reality show that documents real police investigations for the first 48 hours after a homicide report, including what happens inside interrogation rooms. If this sounds dangerous and ethically questionable, that's because it is. Police accidentally killed a child as A&E's cameras rolled, and a legally innocent man came to beknown as a murderer after of his appearance on the show. Catastrophes like these have led to lawsuits, and now many cities refuse to work with The First 48.......This portrayal is not representative of American crime statistics. Although homicide arrests are disproportionately high among African Americans, about the same total number of white people are arrested i...more

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  • democracyarsenal.org

    Can the F-35 Replace the A-10?

    by Nickolai Sukharev  One of the big decisions the United States Air Force has considered over the last few months is whether to retire the A-10 Thunderbolt II fleet as a cost saving measure while developing and procuring the F-35A Lightening II. Given the Budget Control Act caps on Pentagon spending and the need to better allocate funds, officials have expressed their preference to prioritize multi-mission platforms in the inventory. But the problem is that the F-35A is not a replacement for the A-10’s close air support. The reason is simple: it lacks comparable capabilities despite a higher operating cost. Given the constrained budgetary environment, the comparative cost to maintain and operate the two aircraft should be a decisive consideration. The A-10 is a...more

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    Live to Eat, Eat to Live

    In a recent New York Times opinion piece, Paul Krugman assessed the possibility that the economy is in a new, constant state of mild depression, and suggests several reasons why this might be occurring, including slowing population growth and a persistent trade deficit. To this I would like to suggest another one, which has been a topic of some of my previous posts: We simply demand less in terms of the consumption of produced, brick and mortar types of goods because that is not where we are spending our lives. Granted, we need a place to live, food to eat, a car to get around, but now we are not living to eat, we are eating to live; we are living to do things that do not require a huge industrial machine. (I won't even get into the point that insofar as we require the...more

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  • democracyarsenal.org

    After Geneva Talks A Consensus on Moving Forward

    By Homa Hassan The two-day round of P5+1 negotiations with Iran just concluded in Geneva and Western diplomats are carefully reviewing a detailed proposal presented by Iran. As this proposal is being reviewed ahead of the follow-on meetings in November it is important to look at what the realistic prospects of a deal will look like. Going into this week’s talks, a number of commentaries came out attempting to set negotiations up for failure. However, it is widely agreed that a negotiated solution to Iran’s controversial nuclear program is the best way to achieve a sustainable solution and a recent survey of reports and recommendations from bipartisan think tanks and high-level experts demonstrates a broad consensus on how to approach negotiations a...more

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  • democracyarsenal.org

    TPP, TTIP and Getting America's Competitiveness Back on Track

    By Marcela Heywood Last week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bali, Indonesia marked further progress for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and set an ambitious goal to finish negotiations by the end of the year. Although the U.S. government shutdown – and President Obama’s absence in Bali – did not hinder the trade talks, it did call America’s credibility into question. Government shutdown could threaten both TPP and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations by displaying uncertainty in U.S. economic and foreign policy priorities. Congress needs to reach an agreement and prioritize TPP and TTIP, as they are necessary policy initiatives to boost American competitiveness, stimulate the economy, and exert soft power to cr...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-09

    Given that I block NSA & PRISM tweets, was entertaining tuning into twitter & trying to figure why everyone was on about Lord Snowdon -> Turned on GoT tonight just in time to catch Daenerys reenacting her Level 2 YMCA gymnastics pageant. -> How Not to Be Alone | Jonathan Safran Foer – http://t.co/HMFxg75lfh http://t.co/DzAtvWBQJr -> Excellent, but fellow sports-med geeks only: Sports and exercise-related tendinopathies: a review – http://t.co/WGkhRlO6Uz -> ...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-07

    Photo-set: Flooding Across Central Europe – http://t.co/8G6j8teCbd -> CDC Update: Severe Respiratory Illness Associated with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus – http://t.co/hWqN1338VN -> Col Flagg: Have you ever heard of Malaysian Chest Implosion Torture? Radar: No. Coll Flagg: Good. It hasn’t been invented… yet. -> tl;dr: There are Manchurian Candidate engineers at large tech cos that have stolen SSL root cert and NSA is using it for cattle mutilation. -> Brian: …Will you please listen? I'm not the Messiah! Do you understand? Honestly Woman: Only the true Messiah denies his divinity! -> ...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-05

    FRED: Free Energy Data – http://t.co/90H7GVDazO -> Solipsisms ‘r’ us, courtesy of my friends at @thinkup: I apparently mention me a lot – http://t.co/9rTRXvBM9D -> Almost 10,000 words on soccer/Italy/economics/racism by @wrightthompson? Yes, & it’s super. Go. http://t.co/g4sgEFLkIC -> When The Beautiful Game Turns Ugly: A journey into the world of Italy's racist soccer thugs http://t.co/nckrbeLPfs -> Can’t remember last time I read an OpEd or column. Do those still exist? -> ...more

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  • The Street Light

    Cyprus and Eurozone Bank Deposits

    To me, the central issue raised by this week's Cyprus debacle is how it has affected confidence across the eurozone.  To what degree has the possibility of insured depositors at a eurozone bank losing a portion of their deposits affected the mindset of depositors?  To what degree has ECB acquiescence to this possibility undermined the notion that deposit insurance in the eurozone means the same thing in all countries?  And to what degree has the ECB's direct threat to end support for Cyprus's banking system in the event that the government of Cyprus can not arrange sufficient funds to meet its conditions made a farce of its earlier promise to "do whatever it takes to preserve the euro"?These, to me, are the interesting questions prompted by this week's ev...more

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  • The Street Light

    When the Fed Chair is an Academic

    The big economic news of the week was, in fact, big economic news: the Fed's announcement of significant changes from past practice in the the quantity of its next round of large scale asset purchases ("unlimited"), and in the timing of any future reversal of this expansionary policy ("a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens").I view this as a pretty fundamental shift in how the Fed hopes to affect the economy.  Rather than trying to push economic activity one way or the other through its management of interest rates (which can alter economic activity through its portfolio-rebalancing and wealth effects, for example), the Fed is now quite explicitly trying to affect economic activity by altering interest rate and inflation expectations.  As...more

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  • The Street Light

    Government Job Destruction

    Another jobs report in the US, another month where part of the private sector's job creation was undone by continued job destruction by the government sector. The 15,000 additional jobs lost in April brings total job losses in the government sector since January 2010 to over 500,000. While the US has not quite been experiencing European-style austerity over the past two years, that's still a pretty tough headwind to fight as it emerges from recession. ...more

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  • TPMCafe

    Message to world government: Don't govern the Internet

    You could think of the Aspen IDEA report published today as a letter to the head of the International Telecommunications Union, Hamadoun Touré, suggesting that he should reconsider his intent to put the "light touch" of government on the Internet's operations. M. Touré will be running a major meeting of world governments in Dubai at the end of this year. The Dubai meeting, known as WCIT 12, may have an agenda that is a light touch only if that's what you can call a grab for the jugular vein of the Internet. The issues may include a "per click" tax on international Internet traffic, individual nation state regulation identities to online activity, national encryption standards to allow government surveillance, and multinational governance of the Internet. Russia, Chi...more

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  • TPMCafe

    Obama and Romney on Foreign Policy - Drawing the Contrasts

    The political battle lines are being drawn for the general election debate over foreign policy and national security, and you can't do much better than my fellow Democracy Arsenal blogger Michael Cohen for a guide. One key theme of Michael's latest column for ForeignPolicy.com is what a difference it makes for a candidate to bear the responsibility of governing, or on the other hand, campaign to be commander in chief on the basis of self-serving pot shots. My only quibble regards how Romney's reed-thin foreign policy argument will fare with voters. Take Michael's analysis of Romney's potential advantage in the debate on Iran: He can simply lob rhetorical haymakers that hype up the threat of an Iranian bomb or offer Churchillian declarations about his intention to stop...more

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  • TPMCafe

    Will Yale's Alumni Save Liberal Education?

    Hoping to head off alumni resistance to the brand-new "Yale-National University of Singapore" college that the Yale Corporation has created somewhat stealthily in collaboration with the government of that authoritarian city-state, Association of Yale Alumni chairman Michael Madison has inadvertently demonstrated one of the ways Yale College is being transformed from a crucible of civic-republican leadership, grounded in liberal education, into a global career-networking center and cultural galleria for a new elite that answers to no polity or moral code: STATEMENT OF THE OFFICERS OF THE AYA BOARD OF GOVERNORS, Michael Madison, Chair of the Board "All Yale-NUS College graduates will be warmly welcomed as a part of the Yale alumni community. They will also be invited...more

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Otaviano Canuto

Otaviano Canuto is Senior Advisor on BRICS Economies in the Development Economics Department, World Bank, a new position established by President Kim to bring a fresh research focus to this increasingly critical area. He also has an extensive academic background, serving as Professor of Economics at the University of Sao Paulo and University of Campinas (UNICAMP) in Brazil.

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