EconoMonitor

Economics Blog Aggregator

    United States

  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality

    Links

    Links: Huailu Li, Kevin Lang, and Kaiwen Leong: Competition alone will not eliminate discrimination Tim Duy: The Right And Wrong Arguments For September Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve Act: Section 4 Must-Read: Kris James Mitchener and Marc D. Weidenmier: Was the Classical Gold Standard Credible on the Periphery? Evidence from Currency Risk Gillian Tett: The Silo Effect Cherrie Buckner: Young Black America Part Four: The Wrong Way to Close the Gender Wage Gap Tim Duy: Dudley Puts the Kibosh on September Andrew Haldane: Stuck Hiroko Tabucchi: Walmart to End Sales of Assault Rifles in U.S. Stores Charles Seife and Paul Thacker: Why it's OK for taxpayers to 'snoop' on scientists Daniel Larison: "Scowcroft is once again almost alone among prominent Republicans in tak...more

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  • The Big Picture

    101 Best Wineries in America

    # 101 Trione Vineyards and Winery, Geyserville, Calif. # 100 Dolin Malibu Estate Vineyard, Malibu, Calif. # 99 Hope Family Wines, Paso Robles, Calif. # 98 Ste. Chapelle Winery, Caldwell, Idaho # 97 Broc Cellars, Berkeley, Calif. # 96 Cornerstone Cellars, Yountville, Calif. # 95 Gruet Winery, Albuquerque, New Mexico # 94 MacPhaill Family Wines, Healdsburg, Calif. # 93 Shinn Estate Vineyard and Farmhouse, Mattituck, N.Y. # 92 Bokisch Vineyards, Lodi, Calif. # 91 Allis Ranch Winery, Sedalia, Colorado # 90 Seven Hills Winery, Walla Walla, Wash. # 89 Frick Winery, Geyserville, Calif. # 88 Hermann J. Wiemer Winery, Dundee, N.Y. # 87 Neyers Vineyards, St. Helena, Calif. # 86 The Ojai Vineyard , Oak View, Calif. # 85 Va La Vineyards, Avondale, Pennsylvania # 84 Stony Hill Viney...more

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Ultra-Cheap Talk

    (Don Boudreaux) TweetPardon me for here largely repeating what has been said elsewhere about asking those people to put their own money where their mouths are if they allege that today in the United States employers of low-skilled workers have significant monopsony power.  My point is epistemological.  It is, in particular here, a way of probing the truth-content of the assertion of monopsony power.  It is a means of exploring just how much stock people in general should put in academics’ asserted findings of monopsony power. As I’ve said in earlier posts, I don’t really expect professors and think-tank researchers to quit their jobs in order to start businesses.  Most academics – including myself – are far too lazy, too impractica...more

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  • Calculated Risk

    August 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 282 Institutions

    This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for August 2015. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for August 2015. During the month, the list fell from 290 institutions to 282 after nine removals and one addition. Assets dropped by $1.2 billion to an aggregate $82.7 billion. The asset total was updated to reflect second quarter figures, which resulted in a small decline of $95 million. A year ago, the list held 439 institutions with assets of $139.97 billion. This week, we were anticipating for the FDIC to release second quarter industry results and an update on the Official Problem Bank List, but that will have to wait until next month's update...more

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    A very good paragraph and a half

    Claire Messud on Elena Ferrante in the FT: …the novelist remains true to her broadest undertaking: to write, with as much honesty as possible, the unadorned emotional truths of Elena Greco’s life, from timid peasant schoolgirl to respected literary icon, riven always between her origins and her ambitions, between her intellectual pursuits, her romantic desires, and her maternal responsibilities — always with Lila as her fractured mirror. I’ve pressed Ferrante’s novels on friends with mixed results. Some fall upon the books with a familiar eagerness, but by no means all: one woman said, of My Brilliant Friend, “How’s it different from Judy Blume? Just girls getting their periods.” But I end up thinking that the people who don’t see Ferrante’s geni...more

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  • The Big Picture

    Trump Is The New Hit Single

    The biggest story of the year is the failure of Re/code to go it alone. With the number one tech reporter on board, and a plethora of backup, it turned out no one cared, that the “Wall Street Journal” was the brand, and no one had the time, interest or inclination to go elsewhere. This is a major shift from the era just before, where stars were kings and not only did their audiences follow them to new environs, the establishments that let them go saw their fortunes decline. Not that every establishment is dying. Concomitant with the death of the star system comes the beefing up of institutions, because they’re the only ones who can cut through the noise. But then there’s Viacom, so beholden to Wall Street that it missed the future. And in today&#...more

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Hurricane Katrina: 10 Years Ago

    (Don Boudreaux) TweetTen years ago today, residents of my hometown, New Orleans, and its suburbs suffered death and devastation caused by government failure.  Of course, a hurricane that was category 3 when it made landfall on August 29, 2005, sparked this death and devastation, but negligent maintenance allowed the calamitous breaches of the government-owned and operated levee system for containing the waters of the Mississippi river and of Lake Pontchartrain. The house in which I lived from the age of 4 to 22 (which is in New Orleans’s close-in suburb of Marrero) was flooded with more than three feet of water.  My Aunt Carol’s and Uncle Eddie’s home (which sits just behind my boyhood home) was similarly flooded.  Fortunately, no one in my fam...more

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  • Economist's View

    'U.S. Inflation Developments'

    [A speech by Stanley Fischer at Jackson Hole turned into a pretend interview] Hello, and thank you for talking with us.  Let me start by asking if you feel like it gives the Fed a bad image to have a conference in an elite place like Jackson Hole. Why not have the conference in, say, a disadvantaged area to send the signal that you care about these problems, to provide some stimulus to the area, etc.? I am delighted to be here in Jackson Hole in the company of such distinguished panelists and such a distinguished group of participants. Okay then. Let me start be asking about your view of the economy. How close are we to a full recovery?: Although the economy has continued to recover and the labor market is approaching our maximum employment objective, inflation h...more

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    Saturday assorted links

    1. Which Republican candidates actually cut government spending? 2. Will the financial mainstream pick up on the block chain idea? 3. Emmanuel Todd is getting himself in trouble. 4. When it comes to travel, skip the iconic. 5. Claims from Donald Trump. 6. Interview with Josiah Ober on ancient Greece. 7. “But we are not utilitarians. We are Americans.”  Is there a coming car revolution? ...more

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  • The Big Picture

    Donald Trump Says “China”

    Source: Huffington Post click for video  

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  • naked capitalism

    Permaculture in Cold Climates

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  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality

    Noted for Your Morning Procrastination for August 29, 2015

    Must- and Should-Reads: Huailu Li, Kevin Lang, and Kaiwen Leong: Competition alone will not eliminate discrimination Tim Duy: The Right And Wrong Arguments For September Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve Act: Section 4 Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog Project Syndicate: A Cautionary History of US Monetary Tightening WorldPost: China's Market Crash Means Chinese Supergrowth Could Have Only 5 More Years to Run... Plus: Things to Read on the Morning of August 29, 2015 And Over Here: Mount Moran at Dawn with Central Bankers Weekend Reading: Matthew Klein: Some Fed thoughts: QE4 and All That Wekeend Reading: An interview with Josiah Ober, author of The Rise and Fall of Classical Greece Weekend Reading: Rod Hilton: Star Wars: Machete Order For the Weeken...more

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  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality

    Mount Moran at Dawn with Central Bankers

    Live from Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging: I call it: "Mt. Moran at Dawn with Central Bankers":

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  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    A Problem With The Great Monetary Experiment

    A weekend topic on recent financial markets and the housing bubble. The Los Angeles Times. “Seven years ago when the housing bubble burst, it nearly took down Wall Street and the entire U.S. economy. This week, the concern was the reverse: That the prospect of an extended dive in the stock market, or even continued volatility, might spook buyers and sellers in Southern California’s housing market. Christian Lander put an offer on a Glendale house last week, before the stock market started falling. He’s proceeding as planned, because he’s investing for the long term and doesn’t want to react to fluctuations in the market. But Lander worries that other buyers may take a different view — because he’s a seller too, looking to unload his...more

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  • Paul Krugman

    Artificial Unintelligence

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  • Calculated Risk

    Schedule for Week of August 30, 2015

    The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include the August ISM manufacturing index and August vehicle sales, both on Tuesday, and the July Trade Deficit on Thursday.----- Monday, August 31st -----9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for August. The consensus is for a reading of 54.9, up from 54.7 in July.10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for August.----- Tuesday, September 1st -----10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 52.8, up from 52.7 in July.Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 52.7% in July. The employment index was at 52.7%, and the new orders index was at 56.5%.10:00 AM: Construction ...more

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Quotation of the Day…

    (Don Boudreaux) Tweet… is from page 154 of Deirdre McCloskey’s brilliant 1990 book, If You’re So Smart: The Narrative of Economic Expertise: Clergymen and upper middle class intellectuals delight in the transformation of mea culpa into nostra culpa, prejudging in a word the weighty question of whether or not charity should be individual or social. Yes.  And (as I know Deirdre would agree) not only charity but also market-improving actions, such as entrepreneurial efforts to hire away from their current employers low-skilled workers who at the moment are underpaid.  Such market-improving entrepreneurial actions – which occur daily in markets – are largely invisible to those preachers, popes, professors, pundits, and politicians who unthinkin...more

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  • naked capitalism

    Links 8/29/15

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  • The Capital Spectator

    Book Bits | 29 August 2015

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  • Fabius Maximus website

    Martin van Creveld sees the Rise and Fall of History, followed by Amnesia

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  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    Bits Bucket for August 29, 2015

    Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here. Please visit my Youtube channel which you can also find here: http:tinyurl.com/http-hbb-com

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  • Economist's View

    Links for 08-29-15

    Displacement: The Misunderstood Crisis - The Berkeley Blog Entry and Exit Leads to Zero Profit for Bitcoin Miners - Liberty Street The special relationship: UK and US bond yields - Bank Underground Central bank independence before and after the Great Recession - Vox EU Falling Labor Share: Measurement and Candidate Explanations - Tim Taylor How the Society for Creative Anachronism Make Money - Liberty Street Competition alone will not eliminate discrimination - Vox EU Robert Shiller's Case for a Stock Bubble - Dean Baker All our needs are social - Branko Milanovic Who are the middle class? - Miles Corak Fear of Asymmetry - Paul Krugman 1998 in 2015 - Paul Krugman ...more

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  • naked capitalism

    China Sneezes, Europe Catches a Cold

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    What should be the minimum wage for rural Idaho?

    There is a new opinion of sorts: The Democratic Party platform now calls for a $15 per hour national minimum wage for all hourly workers after delegates voted in an amendment proposed by progressive activists during the Democratic National Committee Meeting here on Friday. The pointer is from Conor Sen. ...more

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  • Paul Krugman

    Friday Night Music: Courtney Barnett, Avant Gardener

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  • Calculated Risk

    Fed's Vice Chair Fischer: “When the case is overwhelming, if you wait that long, then you’ve waited too long.”

    Note: Tomorrow, Saturday, at 12:25 PM ET, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium on "U.S. Inflation Developments"A couple of quotes from earlier today ...From Binyamin Appelbaum at the NY Times: Fed Official Fischer Leaves Door Open for September Rate IncreaseMr. Fischer said the Fed was preparing to raise interest rates soon because of the “impressive” growth of the domestic economy. He suggested that the recent volatility of global financial markets could cause the Fed to hesitate, but only if it persisted.“We haven’t made a decision yet, and I don’t think we should,” Mr. Fischer said in an interview with the cable network CNBC. “We’ve got time to wait and see,” because the Fed’s policy-making committee does not ...more

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  • All HW content

    Want Zillow to pay your mortgage for a year?

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  • All HW content

    Agent Ace adds Kevin Heniff as director of business development

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  • All HW content

    Founder of Manhattan Mortgage opens MC Home Loans

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  • Tim Duy's Fed Watch

    Hawkish Rumblings

    Fedspeak from the Jackson Hole conference suggests that the more hawkish FOMC participants are sticking to their guns.  Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester, via the Wall Street Journal: “I want to take the time I have between now and the September meeting to evaluate all the economic information that’s come in, including recent volatility in markets and the reasons behind that,” Ms. Mester said. “But it hasn’t so far changed my basic outlook that the U.S. economy is solid and it could support an increase in interest rates.” Then there is St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, via Bloomberg: “The key question for the committee is -- how much would you want to change the outlook based on the volatility that we’ve seen o...more

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  • Economist's View

    Fed Watch: Hawkish Rumblings

    Tim Duy: Hawkish Rumblings, by Tim Duy: Fedspeak from the Jackson Hole conference suggests that the more hawkish FOMC participants are sticking to their guns. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester, via the Wall Street Journal: “I want to take the time I have between now and the September meeting to evaluate all the economic information that’s come in, including recent volatility in markets and the reasons behind that,” Ms. Mester said. “But it hasn’t so far changed my basic outlook that the U.S. economy is solid and it could support an increase in interest rates.” Then there is St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, via Bloomberg: “The key question for the committee is -- how much would you want to change the outlook base...more

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    A Career in Economics

    A career in Economics...it's much more than you think from American Economic Association on Vimeo.

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  • Paul Krugman

    Fear of Asymmetry

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  • The Capital Spectator

    US Consumer Spending & Income Rises At Moderate Pace In July

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  • Beat the Press

    Financial Transactions Tax Critics Point Out That the Industry Has Paid Almost the Entire Cost of the Tax

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  • Beat the Press

    Robert Shiller's Case for a Stock Bubble

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  • The Capital Spectator

    A Fed Rate Hike In September? No…Yes…Maybe?

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  • The Housing Bubble Blog

    Solving A Debt Crisis With More Debt

    It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Diana Gonzales’ Wylie home was picture perfect when she put it on the market. Still, she was surprised when it sold in a flash. ‘We had about 12 offers,’ says Gonzales, “and the offers were way over the list price!’ Corporate relocations like Toyota and State Farm have delivered a steady supply of buyers. But, experts have warned:’The inventory is so slow, it’s driving the prices up,’ says Realtor Valerie Kirkpatrick, ‘it’s driving the buyers up, they’re having to pay more and more and more and the houses are not worth what they’re paying.’” “The Green Line is a bragging point for the builders of a 30-unit condo building — some priced as high...more

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  • Fabius Maximus website

    Are 30 thousand species going extinct every year?

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  • Tim Duy's Fed Watch

    The Right And Wrong Arguments For September

    This September meeting is the gift that keeps on giving. Right now it is giving by the shear quantity of truly bad commentary arguing for a rate hike next month. Let's back up a few weeks. Prior to the recent market rout, September looked like a pretty good bet. And the basic story that justified that view still holds. It isn't complicated. Just a straight forward Phillips curve story. The economy continues to improve, dragging the labor market along for the ride. Any questions about the meaning of a weak first quarter GDP report were wiped away by the second quarter. Neither is by itself meaningful; the average of 2.5 percent growth for the first half is just about the same as 2014 as a whole. As the labor market approaches full employment, policymakers expect that wa...more

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  • ProfessorBainbridge.com

    Newman was no game changer

    Alison Frankel cites the defendants briefs before the SCOTUS: In at least eight post-Newman decisions, federal district judges have rejected insider trading defendants’ arguments that the government... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] ...more

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  • ProfessorBainbridge.com

    Tweeting about LLC veil piercing

    LLCs Still Don't Have Corporate Veils. Really. http://t.co/nTANsUqO8I It bugs me too. — Stephen Bainbridge (@ProfBainbridge) August 28, 2015 What we should do is just abolish LLC veil piercing.... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] ...more

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  • Econbrowser

    Katrina Plus Ten

    Let hope our responses to the next ones are better than “Heckuva job, Brownie”. From Grinsted, Moore, and Jevrejeva, “Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013: Abstract: Detection and attribution of past changes in cyclone activity are hampered by biased cyclone records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here, we relate a homogeneous record of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity based on storm surge statistics from tide gauges to changes in global temperature patterns. We examine 10 competing hypotheses using nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis with different predictors (North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Osc...more

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  • Fabius Maximus website

    Remember the Ebola hysteria. What did we learn from it?

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  • ProfessorBainbridge.com

    A useful cautionary note on benefit corporations

    I recommend reading Daryl Koehn, Why the New Benefit Corporations May Not Prove to Be Truly Socially Beneficial (July 30, 2015). Business & Professional Ethics Journal, Forthcoming. Available at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] ...more

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  • Beat the Press

    All Trade With China Is Not Equal: The Difference Between Imports and Exports

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  • Macro and Other Market Musings

    How to Create a Chinese Economic Crisis in Three Easy Steps

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  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    Torrance child care and odd pricing action: Torrance home sells for $27,000 and is immediately listed for $485,000.

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  • Econbrowser

    To Log or Not to Log, Part V

    The Shanghai stock market has undergone some wild gyrations over the last year… and back in 2008. Following up on To Log or Not to Log, Part IV: Here’s the picture, as usually depicted. Figure 1: Shanghai composite stock market index, end of month close. August observation is for 8/26. Source: Quandl. The movements look a bit different (but still scary) in logs. Figure 2: Log Shanghai composite stock market index, end of month close. August observation is for 8/26. Source: Quandl and author’s calculations. ...more

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  • Econbrowser

    To Log or Not to Log, Part IV

    Do stock price indices follow a random walk? No, but log stock price indices do…kind of Here’s a graph of the Standard and Poors 500 price index, level (blue) and the log (red). Figure 1: S&P 500 stock price index (blue, left scale) and log (red, right scale). Source: FRED, and author’s calculations. Both processes look nonstationary, but the levels process more so (technically, “explosive”). Which one is the more appropriate to examine? A little theory might be helpful. Consider an asset pricing model for stocks. Ignoring dividends, Pt = (EtPt+1)/(1+i) Where P is the stock price, i is an interest or equity discount rate, and Et(.) is an expectations operator, conditional on time t information. Notice if errors are normally distributed, then the pri...more

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  • Tim Duy's Fed Watch

    Dudley Puts The Kibosh On September

    Monday's action on Wall Street was too much for the Fed. That day, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart pulled back his previous dedication to a September rate hike earlier, reverting to only an expectation that rates rise sometimes this year. But today New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley explicitly called September into question. Via the Wall Street Journal: In light of market volatility and foreign developments, “at this moment, the decision to begin the normalization process at the September [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting seems less compelling to me than it did several weeks ago. But normalization could become more compelling by the time of the meeting as we get additional information” about the state of the economy, he told ...more

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    Aargh!!!....Overtaken

     SourceNow I know how Jeb Bush feels.

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  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    When housing becomes unaffordable for the young: The crushing burden of rents and student debt on future home buying.

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  • Robert Reich

    The Upsurge in Uncertain Work

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  • macroblog

    No Wage Change?

    Even when prevailing market wages are lower, businesses can find it difficult to reduce wages for their current employees. This phenomenon, often referred to as "downward nominal wage rigidity," can result in rising average wages for incumbent workers despite high unemployment levels. Some economic models predict that a period of subdued wage growth can follow, even as the labor market recovers—a kind of delayed wage-adjustment effect. In her 2014 Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested this effect may explain sluggish growth in average wages in recent years, despite significant declines in the rate of unemployment. This macroblog post looks at evidence of wage rigidity, particularly a spike in the frequency of zero wage changes relative to wag...more

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    An Unlikely Sentence

    "Blanchard, Mankiw, and Romer are all in the Wu-Tang Clan."From Dietz Vollrath, an economics professor at the University of Houston, in his Hip-Hop History of Macro.

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  • Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

    Orange County home prices near all-time high levels: Inventory rising and looking at inflection points.

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  • Robert Reich

    CORPORATE WELFARE IN CALIFORNIACorporate welfare is often...

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  • Robert Reich

    The Fraud of the New “Family-Friendly” Work

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  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    Apartments, Energy and Bad Incentives

    I am spending this academic year working in Washington working at HUD, so I am renting an apartment here.  When I signed the lease, I understood that I would pay utilities; what I didn't understand, because I did not read the lease carefully enough, is how I would be charged for utilities.Even though I live in a professionally managed building that has something like 400 units, and even though each unit has its own circuit breaker the units are not metered individually.  Instead, utility costs are allocated on a pro rate basis based on unit square footage and number of residents in the unit.Since moving into this place, I have been very conscientious about setting the air conditioner at 80 degrees F. before leaving the apartment for the day.  I will do my...more

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  • Macro and Other Market Musings

    A Work Around for the Fed's Knowledge Problem

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  • Macro and Other Market Musings

    Austrians vs Market Monetarists on Canadian Fiscal Austerity

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  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – August 12 2015

    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) decreased 1 basis point to 4.05% since last week while the purchase application volume decreased 4% and the refinance application volume i...more

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  • The Baseline Scenario

    Alphabet: Less Than Meets the Eye

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  • The Baseline Scenario

    So Tom Hayes Is Guilty. Who Else Is?

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  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    Construction Spending: June 2015

    Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest read of construction spending showing weakening results for June with total private construction spending, single family construction spending and non-residential construction spending all declining over the month. On a month-to-month basis, total residential spending declined 0.5% from May but remained 13.7% above the level seen in June 2014 and remained well below the peak level seen in 2006.Single family construction spending declined 0.3% from May and rose 12.8% since June 2014 but remaining well below it's peak level reached in 2006.Non-residential construction spending declined 1.3% from May and rose 14.6% above the level seen in June 2014 but remaining a well below the peak level reached in October 200...more

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  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    Shambling Towards Affordability, Mid-Year 2015

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  • The Baseline Scenario

    More Misinformation about Banking Regulation

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  • macroblog

    Getting to the Core of Goods and Services Prices

    table { font: inherit; font-size: 90%; } .citation, .byline { font-style: italic; } .centeredImage { display: block !important; margin-left: auto !important; margin-right: auto !important; } In yesterday's macroblog post, I highlighted an aspect of a recent Wall Street Journal article that concerns how households perceive inflation. Today, I'm going back to the same well to comment on another aspect of that story, which correctly notes that service-sector prices are rising at a faster clip than the price of goods. Of course, this isn't just a recent event. Core services prices have outpaced core goods prices over the past 50 years, save a few short-lived deviations. What's unusual about the current recovery, as the chart below shows, is how low services inflation...more

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  • Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

    Hong Kong Residential Property Prices: HKU-REIS March 2015

    The latest release of the University of Hong Kong's Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in March, the price of residential properties declined 1.06% since February but still remained 16.57% above the level seen in March 2014. The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market. ...more

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  • macroblog

    Different Strokes for Different Folks

    table { font: inherit; font-size: 90%; } .citation, .byline { font-style: italic; } .centeredImage { display: block !important; margin-left: auto !important; margin-right: auto !important; } A recent Wall Street Journal article offered an interesting conjecture. The author stated,"[b]ecause consumers pay service bills more often than they buy most goods other than food and gasoline, perceptions of inflation skew on the high side." Research supports the idea that inflation perceptions are unusually influenced by particular prices. For example, some authors have noted that inflation expectations appear to be unusually influenced by movements in gasoline prices. This research by Georganas, Healy, and Li shows that inflation perceptions are affected by how frequently ...more

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  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    June 2015 Housing Data Rodeo

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  • Piggington's Econo-Almanac

    May 2015 Housing Data Rodeo

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  • TheMoneyIllusion

    Bankrupt Greece breaks promise, rehires 15,000 public employees

    That’s equivalent to about 450,000 new public employees in the US.  Here’s the FT: Opposition lawmakers accused Syriza of violating that agreement with the new laws, which could expand the government payroll by as many as 15,000 employees. But government ministers remained defiant. “We aren’t going to consult [bailout monitors], we don’t have to, we’re a sovereign state,” Nikos Voutsis, the powerful interior minister, told parliament. Yes, and other sovereign states “don’t have to” give Greece any more money. The municipal police force, which was disbanded 18 months ago, will be revived and several thousand caretakers at state schools, known as “guards”, are to be rehired. Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who — as the previous governme...more

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  • TheMoneyIllusion

    Xenophobia plus cognitive illusions = mass ignorance

    Don’t be offended by the title of this post.  I’d guess 99.9999999% of people don’t understand currency manipulation or quantum mechanics.  So I’m using the term ‘ignorance’ loosely. And of course since I’m in the tiny minority (of seven people, based on the percentage above), there’s always the small chance that I’m the stupid one.  This post is to organize my thoughts, as I’m going to be interviewed on “currency manipulation” tomorrow. Let’s start with the term ‘currency manipulation.’  That’s what central banks do.  They manipulate the nominal value of currencies.  Period. End of story.  On the other hand: 1.  Monetary policy has no long run effect on real exchange...more

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  • TheMoneyIllusion

    The Economist dispels some China myths

    A few years back I commented on a “Ghost Cities” story on 60 minutes: They pointed to a “ghost town” development in Zhengzhou, which is capital of a province of 90 million people.  I’d expect its current population (4 million in the urban area) to grow to 10 to 20 million in a few decades.  How much longer will that development seem unneeded? Here’s The Economist: WHEN “60 Minutes”, an American television news programme, visited a new district in the metropolis of Zhengzhou in 2013, it made it the poster-child for China’s property bubble. “We found what they call a ghost city,” said Lesley Stahl, the host. “Uninhabited for miles and miles and miles and miles.” Two years on, she would not be able to say the same. The empty streets ...more

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    The War of Trade Models

    There is an interesting debate going on in Europe about the likely consequences of the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership). Much of the real debate is (or should be) about the proposed Investor-State dispute resolution (ISDS) and the desirability of regulatory harmonization when nations have different preferences about how these regulations should be designed. But there is also a fascinating numbers game going on, with alternative quantitative estimates deployed by pro- and anti-TTIP groups. The studies used by the pro group tend to show positive, if small, GDP effects. Probably the best known among these is a study by Joseph Francois and his colleagues, according to which EU and US GDPs will rise by 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively, by 2027 (relative to th...more

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  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    Is Free Trade Good for Everyone?

    Greg Mankiw implies that it is, and that all economists agree that it is.  But it actually isn't.  Who says so?  Economists.In particular, the workhorse theory of International Trade, the Hecksher-Ohlin Theorem, leads to the Stolper-Samuleson Theorem, which shows that when countries start trading with each other, the relatively abundant factor of production in each country becomes better off, while the relatively scarce factor becomes worse off.   In the US context, this implies that opening up trade will leave capital better off relative to labor, and skilled labor better off relative to unskilled labor.Does trade increase the total size of economies?  Yes--this is something that economists do agree on. But in the absence of redistribution--som...more

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Turkish economic myths

    Preparing for a panel discussion on Turkey gave me the opportunity of putting together some notes and slides on the country’s economy. That Turkey is not doing well at the moment, economically or politically, is well known. But the roots of the problem remain misunderstood. Many analysts blame the weakening of “structural reforms” (on economics) and the turn towards authoritarianism after the Gezi protests in 2013 (on the politics). See for example here. In truth, Turkey’s problems on both fronts predate the recent slowdown in growth and have been long ingrained in the governing party’s (AKP) strategy. I have discussed the politics before at length. Here I focus on the economics. First, let’s dispense with some misconceptions about how well the Turkish econo...more

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  • Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

    LA has zoned itself out of the ability to house its residents (h/t Matthew Glesne)

    Once upon a time, the zoning in Los Angeles would have allowed for 10 million residents to live within its municipal boundaries.  Greg Morrow, in his UCLA dissertation, "Homeowner Revolution: Democracy, Land Use and the Los Angeles Slow Growth Movement 1965-1992," documents how this was eroded over time:So LA really did create a moat around itself and pulled up the drawbridge.  For those of us who think the blessings of cities should be shared widely, this is a shame....more

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Premature deindustrialization in the developing world

    Mention “deindustrialization,” and the image that comes to mind is that of advanced economies making their way into the post-industrial phase of development. In a new paper,[1] I show that the more dramatic trend is one of deindustrialization in the developing countries. This is a trend that is appropriately called premature deindustrialization, since it means that many (if not most) developing nations are becoming service economies without having had a proper experience of industrialization. Latin America appears to be the worst hit region. But worryingly similar trends are very much in evidence in Sub-Saharan Africa too, where few countries had much industrialization to begin with. The only countries that seem to have escaped the curse of premature industrializati...more

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    Ex Ante versus Ex Post Social Policy

    I have written various posts on social policy related to the question of whether and how we redistribute income. One argument of equal opportunity and social egalitarianism is that it is fair to control for the randomness of life. For example, take the luck of the draw in who your parents are. If your best career choice was to be born into a wealthy family, if you got ahead because your father could pull strings to get you an internship at a big investment bank; because you built up your high school resume by spending a summer building houses in Tibet while a classmate had to spend the summer working at the 7-11; or because you could afford two years of one-on-one tutoring for the SAT, the result might be to score higher in an objective standard of selection and have a ...more

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    On Death with Dignity

    We take the will to live as a positive attribute, and naturally so; it is, of course in our genes.  Whatever subset of our species took a lackadaisical view toward the prospect of death was screened out long ago. We look with admiration on those who battle against terminal illness --  “She’s a real fighter” -- and look down on those who take their own lives. Fighting for your life is the genetic prime directive.   Thus the recent death of Brittany Maynard spurred a flurry of news articles and posts on the Death with Dignity movement. There will be a lot more to come on this topic, and the movement will gather steam because whatever is in the crosshairs of the baby boomers weighs down on society as a whole. Soon the baby boomers will come to the...more

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    Uber: What could possibly go wrong

    Uber at the core is nothing more than a bunch of guys who came up with a clever app for streamlining the way you call for a car.  Rather than phoning or texting, you tap on the app.  Rather than paying with cash or credit cards, you have an account.  And rather than depending on the reputation of the car company, you depend on the ratings-based reputation of the specific driver. (Another feature, the pre-determined fare, with that fare essentially including all fees including tip, is nothing new for car services). And, by the way, it is readily replicable by any other car services, including those that already have a reputation and experienced drivers.  So it seems to me that it is only mildly innovative.  How do you build a successful world-wid...more

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  • The Street Light

    Transfer Pricing Economics

    I'd like to announce that after a long hiatus from blogging, I'm taking it up again in a new forum.  The new blog, Transfer Pricing Economics, is primarily devoted to exploring my particular area of professional specialty, namely "transfer pricing".  If that term doesn't mean anything to you, then feel free to check out my brief explanation of transfer pricing. My aim is to expose and analyze the connections between the arcane world of transfer pricing and broader developments in the economic and financial world. And the connections are significant: the rules and economic logic of transfer pricing have a direct impact on trillions of dollars of international trade every year. So please feel free to check in on and contribute to the discussions about these...more

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Farewell

    In memoriam: Gary S. Becker, 1930-2014. The Becker-Posner blog is terminated. Richard A. Posner

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Sabbatical Notice

    Starting this weekend, we will be taking a one-month sabbatical from blogging. We will resume at the end of that period.

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    The Embargo of Cuba: Time to Go- Becker

    The US embargo of Cuba began in 1960, a year after Fidel Castro turned this island toward communism. It was extended to food and medicines in 1962, the same year as the showdown with Russia over the installation of missiles there. The embargo has prevented American companies from doing business with Cuba, and discouraged tourism to Cuba. The American government also tried with quite limited success to prevent other countries from trading with Cuba. In general economic embargoes are undesirable because they interfere with free trade among countries. Yet a case could be made for an embargo against Cuba. Castro not only allowed Russian missiles to be installed in Cuba, just 90 miles from Florida, but was also actively trying to interfere in other countries by sending troop...more

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  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Capital Gains And Games Now Being Published By Forbes

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  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Big Changes Are Coming To Capital Gains And Games

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  • Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games

    Camp Plan Puts Nail In Tax Reform Coffin For This Year, And Next, And...

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  • democracyarsenal.org

    Can the F-35 Replace the A-10?

    by Nickolai Sukharev  One of the big decisions the United States Air Force has considered over the last few months is whether to retire the A-10 Thunderbolt II fleet as a cost saving measure while developing and procuring the F-35A Lightening II. Given the Budget Control Act caps on Pentagon spending and the need to better allocate funds, officials have expressed their preference to prioritize multi-mission platforms in the inventory. But the problem is that the F-35A is not a replacement for the A-10’s close air support. The reason is simple: it lacks comparable capabilities despite a higher operating cost. Given the constrained budgetary environment, the comparative cost to maintain and operate the two aircraft should be a decisive consideration. The A-10 is a...more

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  • democracyarsenal.org

    After Geneva Talks A Consensus on Moving Forward

    By Homa Hassan The two-day round of P5+1 negotiations with Iran just concluded in Geneva and Western diplomats are carefully reviewing a detailed proposal presented by Iran. As this proposal is being reviewed ahead of the follow-on meetings in November it is important to look at what the realistic prospects of a deal will look like. Going into this week’s talks, a number of commentaries came out attempting to set negotiations up for failure. However, it is widely agreed that a negotiated solution to Iran’s controversial nuclear program is the best way to achieve a sustainable solution and a recent survey of reports and recommendations from bipartisan think tanks and high-level experts demonstrates a broad consensus on how to approach negotiations a...more

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  • democracyarsenal.org

    TPP, TTIP and Getting America's Competitiveness Back on Track

    By Marcela Heywood Last week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bali, Indonesia marked further progress for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and set an ambitious goal to finish negotiations by the end of the year. Although the U.S. government shutdown – and President Obama’s absence in Bali – did not hinder the trade talks, it did call America’s credibility into question. Government shutdown could threaten both TPP and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations by displaying uncertainty in U.S. economic and foreign policy priorities. Congress needs to reach an agreement and prioritize TPP and TTIP, as they are necessary policy initiatives to boost American competitiveness, stimulate the economy, and exert soft power to cr...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-09

    Given that I block NSA & PRISM tweets, was entertaining tuning into twitter & trying to figure why everyone was on about Lord Snowdon -> Turned on GoT tonight just in time to catch Daenerys reenacting her Level 2 YMCA gymnastics pageant. -> How Not to Be Alone | Jonathan Safran Foer – http://t.co/HMFxg75lfh http://t.co/DzAtvWBQJr -> Excellent, but fellow sports-med geeks only: Sports and exercise-related tendinopathies: a review – http://t.co/WGkhRlO6Uz -> ...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-07

    Photo-set: Flooding Across Central Europe – http://t.co/8G6j8teCbd -> CDC Update: Severe Respiratory Illness Associated with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus – http://t.co/hWqN1338VN -> Col Flagg: Have you ever heard of Malaysian Chest Implosion Torture? Radar: No. Coll Flagg: Good. It hasn’t been invented… yet. -> tl;dr: There are Manchurian Candidate engineers at large tech cos that have stolen SSL root cert and NSA is using it for cattle mutilation. -> Brian: …Will you please listen? I'm not the Messiah! Do you understand? Honestly Woman: Only the true Messiah denies his divinity! -> ...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-05

    FRED: Free Energy Data – http://t.co/90H7GVDazO -> Solipsisms ‘r’ us, courtesy of my friends at @thinkup: I apparently mention me a lot – http://t.co/9rTRXvBM9D -> Almost 10,000 words on soccer/Italy/economics/racism by @wrightthompson? Yes, & it’s super. Go. http://t.co/g4sgEFLkIC -> When The Beautiful Game Turns Ugly: A journey into the world of Italy's racist soccer thugs http://t.co/nckrbeLPfs -> Can’t remember last time I read an OpEd or column. Do those still exist? -> ...more

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  • The Street Light

    Cyprus and Eurozone Bank Deposits

    To me, the central issue raised by this week's Cyprus debacle is how it has affected confidence across the eurozone.  To what degree has the possibility of insured depositors at a eurozone bank losing a portion of their deposits affected the mindset of depositors?  To what degree has ECB acquiescence to this possibility undermined the notion that deposit insurance in the eurozone means the same thing in all countries?  And to what degree has the ECB's direct threat to end support for Cyprus's banking system in the event that the government of Cyprus can not arrange sufficient funds to meet its conditions made a farce of its earlier promise to "do whatever it takes to preserve the euro"?These, to me, are the interesting questions prompted by this week's ev...more

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  • The Street Light

    When the Fed Chair is an Academic

    The big economic news of the week was, in fact, big economic news: the Fed's announcement of significant changes from past practice in the the quantity of its next round of large scale asset purchases ("unlimited"), and in the timing of any future reversal of this expansionary policy ("a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens").I view this as a pretty fundamental shift in how the Fed hopes to affect the economy.  Rather than trying to push economic activity one way or the other through its management of interest rates (which can alter economic activity through its portfolio-rebalancing and wealth effects, for example), the Fed is now quite explicitly trying to affect economic activity by altering interest rate and inflation expectations.  As...more

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  • TPMCafe

    Message to world government: Don't govern the Internet

    You could think of the Aspen IDEA report published today as a letter to the head of the International Telecommunications Union, Hamadoun Touré, suggesting that he should reconsider his intent to put the "light touch" of government on the Internet's operations. M. Touré will be running a major meeting of world governments in Dubai at the end of this year. The Dubai meeting, known as WCIT 12, may have an agenda that is a light touch only if that's what you can call a grab for the jugular vein of the Internet. The issues may include a "per click" tax on international Internet traffic, individual nation state regulation identities to online activity, national encryption standards to allow government surveillance, and multinational governance of the Internet. Russia, Chi...more

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  • TPMCafe

    Obama and Romney on Foreign Policy - Drawing the Contrasts

    The political battle lines are being drawn for the general election debate over foreign policy and national security, and you can't do much better than my fellow Democracy Arsenal blogger Michael Cohen for a guide. One key theme of Michael's latest column for ForeignPolicy.com is what a difference it makes for a candidate to bear the responsibility of governing, or on the other hand, campaign to be commander in chief on the basis of self-serving pot shots. My only quibble regards how Romney's reed-thin foreign policy argument will fare with voters. Take Michael's analysis of Romney's potential advantage in the debate on Iran: He can simply lob rhetorical haymakers that hype up the threat of an Iranian bomb or offer Churchillian declarations about his intention to stop...more

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  • TPMCafe

    Will Yale's Alumni Save Liberal Education?

    Hoping to head off alumni resistance to the brand-new "Yale-National University of Singapore" college that the Yale Corporation has created somewhat stealthily in collaboration with the government of that authoritarian city-state, Association of Yale Alumni chairman Michael Madison has inadvertently demonstrated one of the ways Yale College is being transformed from a crucible of civic-republican leadership, grounded in liberal education, into a global career-networking center and cultural galleria for a new elite that answers to no polity or moral code: STATEMENT OF THE OFFICERS OF THE AYA BOARD OF GOVERNORS, Michael Madison, Chair of the Board "All Yale-NUS College graduates will be warmly welcomed as a part of the Yale alumni community. They will also be invited...more

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Aaron Menenberg Policies of Scale

Aaron Menenberg is Foreign Policy and Energy analyst, and a Future Leader with Foreign Policy Initiative. He also co-hosts Podlitical Risk (@podliticalrisk). He is a graduate student in international relations at The Maxwell School of Syracuse University. Previously he has worked at Praescient Analytics, The Hudson Institute, for the Israeli Ministry of Defense, and at the IBM Corporation. The views expressed are his own, and you can follow him on Twitter @AaronMenenberg. He welcomes questions and comments at menenbergaaron@gmail.com.