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    Geostrategy

  • Foreign Policy

    Warnings for the U.S. military about innovation and the information age: The Pentagon looks like a minicomputer firm

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  • Foreign Policy

    Warnings for the U.S. military about innovation and the information age: The Pentagon looks like a minicomputer firm

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  • Foreign Policy

    Warnings for the U.S. military about innovation and the information age: The Pentagon looks like a minicomputer firm

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  • Rodger A. Payne's Blog

    At least he didn't mention Munich....

    A few days ago, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army General Martin E. Dempsey said the following at the Aspen Security Forum (full text here):“You’ve got a Russian government that has made the conscious decision to use its military force inside of another sovereign nation to achieve its objectives -- first time, I think, probably, since 1939 or so that that’s been the case,”To some readers, the remark fails the laugh test even though no one in the room apparently laughed.In that last link, former Reagan Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Paul Craig Roberts is hot and bothered that the United States is demonizing Russia and Vlad Putin in apparent preparation for war -- and he means World War III, all caps and Roman numerals. The title ...more

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  • MEI Editor's Blog

    July 28, 1914: As Europe Descends into War, Winston Churchill and Enver Pasha Separately Push Turkey Towards a German Alliance

    One hundred years ago today, Austria declared war on Serbia, lighting the fuse that within a week would transform what Bismarck had called the Balkan powder keg into a Europe-wide explosion. Itnwas one month exactly since the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo.On the same day, July 28, two men on opposite sides of Europe would take actions that would lead to the Ottoman Empire joining the German side. In London, First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill initiated the idea of confiscating two Turkish battleships being built in  British shipyards, one already complete and the other nearing completion, and adding them to the Royal Navy. Meanwhile on the same day in Constantinople, the most pro-German member of the Ottoman Cabinet, War Minister E...more

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  • Foreign Policy

    Taliban Making Advances As U.S. Withdraws; Mob Violence Kills Three Ahmadis In Pakistan; Three Dead In Indian Communal Clashes

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  • Foreign Policy

    Taliban Making Advances As U.S. Withdraws; Mob Violence Kills Three Ahmadis In Pakistan; Three Dead In Indian Communal Clashes

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  • Foreign Policy

    Taliban Making Advances As U.S. Withdraws; Mob Violence Kills Three Ahmadis In Pakistan; Three Dead In Indian Communal Clashes

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  • Foreign Policy

    Israel and Gaza See Tenuous Calm as U.N. Calls For Cease-Fire

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  • Foreign Policy

    Israel and Gaza See Tenuous Calm as U.N. Calls For Cease-Fire

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  • Foreign Policy

    Israel and Gaza See Tenuous Calm as U.N. Calls For Cease-Fire

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  • Informed Comment

    The Persecution of Christians by ISIS contradicts idea of a Caliphate

    By Erica C D Hunter, SOAS, University of London – via The Conversation ISIS conquests across northern Iraq have been comprehensive in recent weeks. Taking control of large parts of the region, they declared a Caliphate last month. And one group who have especially suffered at their hands are the Christians that have been a part of the region’s landscape for almost two millenia. Following ISIS’ consolidation of power in the region, these longstanding communities have faced brutal treatment. In what can only be considered persecution and discrimination of the highest degree, ISIS has targeted the Christians of Mosul by daubing their homes with the Arabic letter N – marking them out as Nasarah, Christians. In a concerted and deliberate plan of ethnic cleans...more

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  • Informed Comment

    Jews and Arabs Refuse to be Enemies: Social Media Campaign

    “A social media campaign calls for peace between Jews and Arabs, CNN’s Samuel Burke explains.” Jews and Arabs refuse to be enemies Here are some Tweets from the campaign: The #JewsAndArabsRefuseToBeEnemies social media campaign goes viral. I love this pic! #lovenothate #peace #friends pic.twitter.com/LKR9dzPWaN — Stephen ☩ (@RevStephenSorby) July 26, 2014 A lot of hashtags are pointless clicktivism but #JewsAndArabsRefuseToBeEnemies feels right since it's only trying to shift a narrative — Caleb Garling (@CalebGarling) July 23, 2014 Here's some eye bleach after seeing all the hatred on social media #JewsAndArabsRefuseToBeEnemies http://t.co/eM1dAkQNkh — Shahed Amanullah (@shahed) July 23, 2014 As a half-Jewish half-M...more

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  • Informed Comment

    Israel & Palestine both Need to Root out the Hate

    By Yakir Englander via ISLAMiCommentary Yakir Englander Serious illness calls for first aid, then sometimes surgery, followed by healing the source of the disease. If you ask which is most important, I’d say you can’t have one without the other. Without first aid, the patient will never reach the doctor. First aid without deeper treatment and true healing can cause a slow, more painful death and/or disability. Unfortunately, this analogy applies to the recurring violence between Israel and Palestine. As first aid, we must quickly stop the violence. Then the leaders will need to sit and talk and agree on a political solution. But an immediate ceasefire and political negotiations, like first aid and surgery, are no guarantees of a long term healing of the underlying...more

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  • Fabius Maximus

    The Fate of Israel

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  • International Political Economy Zone

    'Libertarian Hacking' is Not an Oxymoron

    Every hacker has his price--and the Koch brothers are paying for talent. Owing to the dominance of Northern California--Silicon Valley, to be exact--in the American technology sphere, it is unsurprising that we think of tech culture as predominantly liberal in orientation. It's Nancy Pelosi Land. However, if you examine the premises of what these technologies supposedly do--promote economic and political freedoms--it gets you thinking: Shouldn't conservative causes in general and libertarian ones in particular welcome advances in the global use of ICT worldwide? A recent Yahoo! News original feature--they apparently have journalists of their own now writing features instead of relying purely on news agencies--brings up this possibility:The internal outcry at StumbleUpon...more

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  • MEI Editor's Blog

    ‘Id al- Fitr Greetings

    Though the usual astronomical issues mean the end of Ramadan will vary from country to country, most Muslims in the United States and the Middle East consider Monday to be the first day of Shawwal, which means the Ramadan fast ends at sundown today.‘Id al-Fitr greetings to my Muslim readers....more

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  • Foreign Policy

    Top Pentagon Intel Official: No Mideast Peace 'In My Lifetime'

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  • Rodger A. Payne's Blog

    Racial injustice

    If you haven't read it yet, then I recommend you give some time to "The Case for Reparations" by Ta-Nehisi Coates, which was the cover story in The Atlantic in June.On the same theme, here's the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame members, the Staple Singers performing "When Will We Be Paid (For the Work We've Done)?" live in 1971.In 3 minutes, the song effectively communicates a similar message. Lyrics.And since it's baseball Hall of  Fame induction day, you might also check out "42" on DVD. It's the story of Jackie Robinson -- and to some extent, Branch Rickey. It focuses on real events from 1946 and 1947 when Robinson broke the color barrier in major league baseball.I had put off watching the film for at least a year because I was afraid that the story would be...more

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  • International Political Economy Zone

    Diversification, or Macau Can't Live on Gambling Alone

    Can Manny help Macau diversify from gambling?Let's get ready to ruuuuumble: To be sure, if you compare Macau to Las Vegas in terms of gaming revenues, it's a first-round TKO for the Chinese gaming town. Since the turn of the millennium, Macau has left the former home of gambling in the dust as revenues have increased at a rapid clip. However, all good things must come to an end. Given Macau's reliance on punters (Brit-speak for gamblers) from the mainland, the growth slowdown there was bound to have knock-on effects for the Asian betting mecca. For the first time since the PRC bean counters have kept monthly tallies of Macau gaming revenues (in 2010), they fell in June 2014 year-on-year:Gambling revenue in Macau fell 3.7 percent in June on an annual basis, the first dec...more

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  • Fabius Maximus

    “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire” asks if you want a Revolution

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  • MEI Editor's Blog

    ISIS Denied Earlier Reports it Had Destroyed Jonah's Tomb; Then, Yesterday, They Blew it Up

    The good news is that reports from several days ago that ISIS had destroyed the traditional tomb of the Prophet Yunus (Biblical Jonah) turned out to be untrue. The bad news is, we know this because they blew it up yesterday. Quite visibly. Jonah, in the Bible, and Yunus, his equivalent in the Qur'an, was sent as a Prophet to Nineveh after the incident being swallowed by a "great fish." The Mosque and shrine stood on a hill known as Nabi Yunus, above the ruins of ancient Nineveh, across the Tigris from Mosul. It stood on the site of an earlier Assyrian Church dedicated to Jonah. ISIS had denied earlier reports that it had destroyed the tomb, but the video above and the before and after photos below seem to leave no doubt; as Conflict Antiquities notes, they also match ol...more

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  • Fabius Maximus

    We should begin preparing now for the evacuation of Israel

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  • Foreign Policy

    Freshman Congressman Mistakes Senior Government Officials for Foreigners

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  • Foreign Policy

    Gaza Fighting Turns Uglier as Cease-Fire Proves Elusive

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  • The World

    Fear of flying – is there anything you can do?

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  • Moneybox

    Lyft Is Launching in New York City Tonight

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  • Moneybox

    The Most Important Thing to Remember About Poverty: It’s Rarely Permanent

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  • Moneybox

    Rising Coffee Prices Spook Starbucks Investors

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  • The World

    The renaissance of French cycling

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  • The World

    Israel loses control in Gaza

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  • International Political Economy Zone

    Russia Fun: Ruling on $100B Yukos Expropriation Claim

    Those were the days--and some hope to bring them back.Five years later, we are about to hear the decision on Russia's liabilities from expropriating Yukos. Readers will remember Mikhail Khodorkovsky, formerly a favored oligarch who then irked Vladimir Putin by entering politics. Shortly thereafter Khodorkovsky was thrown in jail, the firm he controlled was dismembered, and its assets were subsumed by the state-owned giant oil concern Rosneft. In post-USSR Russia, the unspoken arrangement among the beneficiaries of the fire-sale of state-owned commodities firms was that they could enjoy their, er, unusually acquired fortunes for as long as they did not criticize the men who made it possible. This guy had other bright ideas in biting the hand that fed.While Khodorkovsky h...more

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  • Achenblog

    Where have all the animals gone?

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  • Rodger A. Payne's Blog

    15 years ago...

    July 23, 1999, an old friend and I attended a game in Yankee Stadium. New York beat Cleveland 9-8 that night in just over 4 and a half hours. Long game.Photo credit: Paul ParkerThis might be a good time to mention Hardball Passport.  If you save old baseball tickets stubs from games you attended (they also have a basketball site, with football coming soon), you can easily retrieve details of the games you attended. Here is my list. I attended some games in the early 1970s that are not yet covered by the website and many, many minor league games that are not in their database -- many from the late 1990s and early- to mid-2000s. Oh, I've also apparently lost some tickets stubs from college. They don't seem to have exhibition games either, at least not ...more

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  • The Arabist

    George Scanlon: An Appreciation

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  • Achenblog

    Secrets of happiness

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  • Macro and Markets

    Addressing America’s Infrastructure Challenge

    America’s woeful lack of infrastructure spending is well appreciated.  What is missing is action to address it.  My colleague Heidi Crebo-Rediker writes that the Administration has now launched a new Transportation Investment Center to share best practice, provide technical assistance, and give support for accessing credit programs for new infrastructure projects. This one-stop shop within the Department of Transportation has much in common with (and looks to draw heavily on) Heidi’s earlier proposal for an “Infrastructure USA” initiative.  While no silver bullet, it’s a valuable first step. ...more

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  • China Matters

    Ukraine, MH 17, and the Charge of the Atlanticist Brigade

    The bloody farce in the Ukraine took another ugly turn with the shootdown of MH 17.And to be ugly about it, if the rebels shot the plane down, it shouldn’t matter very much except as a horrible and unexpected catastrophe in a war zone and an overwhelming tragedy to the survivors of the victims on board.  Call it an accident, collateral damage, manslaughter, there is no credible version of events in which it was intentional mass murder or terrorism, either by the rebels or Russian technicians that, according to the Ukrainian government, possessed the ability to operate the elderly but complex anti-aircraft systems fingered in the attack.Recall the US shootdown of Iran Air Flight 655 in 1988 by the USS Vincennes.  It was also an ugly business.  The Iran ...more

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  • The Moor Next Door

    New World Politics Review Piece

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  • Achenblog

    It feels like flying just got a little bit more dangerous

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  • Macro and Markets

    China Chooses Growth Over Reform

    The Wall Street Journal piece on rapid credit growth in China yesterday describes the sharp tradeoff for the Chinese government: achieving growth targets in the near term comes at the expense of reform delays and further rapid debt accumulation. With growth likely to decelerate in 2015 without additional stimulus, the prospects for meaningful economic reform are receding. I’ve explored this tradeoff in my July Global Economics Monthly (here). Imposing hard budget constraints, tightening credit, recognizing losses, and addressing massive excess capacity in real estate, raw materials and other sectors is disruptive in the short term, and as long as growth is falling short of government targets the hard decisions are likely to be deferred. If it takes a crisis to force c...more

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  • The Arabist

    Adam Shatz: Writers or Missionaries?

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  • Macro and Markets

    Russian Sanctions: The United States Takes the Lead

    The United States has taken what, on first read, looks to be a significant step today, extending sanctions ( see also here) to block new debt and equity issuance by a number of energy, financial and military companies.  It is not quite full “sectoral” sanctions–both because it is limited in what it blocks (new debt and equity of maturity greater than 90 days) and because it excludes Sberbank, which holds the majority of Russian deposits. But I would argue that the reach of this new executive order in terms of institutions covered is sufficiently broad that the effects on the Russian financial system could be systemic. Europe chose not to match these sanctions, so it is critical that large European banks not fill the gap left by the withdrawal of U.S...more

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  • China Matters

    Debunking America's Scarborough Shoal Dolchstoss Meme

    ... or “Goodbye Honest Broker” Whoever is rolling out the new US maritime strategy for East Asia apparently regards the Financial Times as his or her chosen instrument.  The FT, for its part, appears to believe that it completes its journalistic mission by reporting the US position, and sees no need to examine the US claims in detail, a shortcoming I intend to remedy in this piece.In recent days two backgrounded FT articles have expressed US frustration with Chinese salami-slicing and cabbage wrapping in the South China Sea.  From the first piece, Pentagon plans new tactics to deter China in South China Sea:In recent months, the US has come to two broad conclusions about its approach to the South China Sea. The first is that its efforts at deterrence...more

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  • The Arabist

    Charles Glass on the CIA's Arabists

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  • China Matters

    China Hand Has Whooping Cough

    Apologies for the paucity of new material on the site in recent weeks.  For the last month I have been wrestling with an acute and fatiguing case of whooping cough (pertussis) caused by the bacterium Bordetella pertussis.I would like to tell readers that immunization will protect them from this disease...but I can't.Pertussis vaccine simply doesn't work very well.  The acknowledged failure rate for pertussis vaccine is about 20%.  However, misdiagnosis and under-reporting of pertussis cases is a major problem, especially for adults.  In my state of California, currently in the midst of a declared whooping cough epidemic, it is estimated that cases are underreported by 10:1.  In Poland at one time, it was estimated that cases were underreported b...more

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  • The Belgravia Dispatch

    The Peace Process Ends: Not With a Bang, But a Whimper

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  • The Belgravia Dispatch

    The Horror: Iraq Class of '03 Mounts Rerun

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Farewell

    In memoriam: Gary S. Becker, 1930-2014. The Becker-Posner blog is terminated. Richard A. Posner

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  • The Moor Next Door

    The Army and the Status Quo

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  • The Moor Next Door

    RND Sketch

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Sabbatical Notice

    Starting this weekend, we will be taking a one-month sabbatical from blogging. We will resume at the end of that period.

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  • The Belgravia Dispatch

    An Epidemic of Putin Derangement Syndrome

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    The Embargo of Cuba: Time to Go- Becker

    The US embargo of Cuba began in 1960, a year after Fidel Castro turned this island toward communism. It was extended to food and medicines in 1962, the same year as the showdown with Russia over the installation of missiles there. The embargo has prevented American companies from doing business with Cuba, and discouraged tourism to Cuba. The American government also tried with quite limited success to prevent other countries from trading with Cuba. In general economic embargoes are undesirable because they interfere with free trade among countries. Yet a case could be made for an embargo against Cuba. Castro not only allowed Russian missiles to be installed in Cuba, just 90 miles from Florida, but was also actively trying to interfere in other countries by sending troop...more

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  • democracyarsenal.org

    Can the F-35 Replace the A-10?

    by Nickolai Sukharev  One of the big decisions the United States Air Force has considered over the last few months is whether to retire the A-10 Thunderbolt II fleet as a cost saving measure while developing and procuring the F-35A Lightening II. Given the Budget Control Act caps on Pentagon spending and the need to better allocate funds, officials have expressed their preference to prioritize multi-mission platforms in the inventory. But the problem is that the F-35A is not a replacement for the A-10’s close air support. The reason is simple: it lacks comparable capabilities despite a higher operating cost. Given the constrained budgetary environment, the comparative cost to maintain and operate the two aircraft should be a decisive consideration. The A-10 is a...more

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  • democracyarsenal.org

    After Geneva Talks A Consensus on Moving Forward

    By Homa Hassan The two-day round of P5+1 negotiations with Iran just concluded in Geneva and Western diplomats are carefully reviewing a detailed proposal presented by Iran. As this proposal is being reviewed ahead of the follow-on meetings in November it is important to look at what the realistic prospects of a deal will look like. Going into this week’s talks, a number of commentaries came out attempting to set negotiations up for failure. However, it is widely agreed that a negotiated solution to Iran’s controversial nuclear program is the best way to achieve a sustainable solution and a recent survey of reports and recommendations from bipartisan think tanks and high-level experts demonstrates a broad consensus on how to approach negotiations a...more

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  • democracyarsenal.org

    TPP, TTIP and Getting America's Competitiveness Back on Track

    By Marcela Heywood Last week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bali, Indonesia marked further progress for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and set an ambitious goal to finish negotiations by the end of the year. Although the U.S. government shutdown – and President Obama’s absence in Bali – did not hinder the trade talks, it did call America’s credibility into question. Government shutdown could threaten both TPP and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations by displaying uncertainty in U.S. economic and foreign policy priorities. Congress needs to reach an agreement and prioritize TPP and TTIP, as they are necessary policy initiatives to boost American competitiveness, stimulate the economy, and exert soft power to cr...more

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  • International Political Economy at the University of North Carolina

    Why US Financial Hegemony Will Endure

    Will and I have a piece, now ungated, over at a fantastic new online magazine called Symposium. Our article translates much of the main points of our Perspectives Piece (co-authored with Thomas and Andy Pennock) for popular consumption. We are also blogging over there this week in support of the article. Please do check out our writing this week on the magazine's website, as well as the other great content on the site....more

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  • International Political Economy at the University of North Carolina

    Foreign Direct Investment, Human Rights, INGOs

    One of the major areas of underdeveloped research within political science is the interaction between non-state actors. From an international political economy perspective, the literature has largely ignored the interaction of various non-state actors that are growing in importance, and its effects on different forms of trade. In a recently published article "Avoiding the Spotlight: Human Rights Shaming and Foreign Direct Investment" by Colin Barry, Chad Clay and Michael Flynn, they lay the foundation for examining this interaction. They examine the interaction between non-state actors (INGOs) and multinational corporations (MNCs) and the extent to which private actors' choices to invest in countries are affected by the reputational costs of doing business in those...more

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  • International Political Economy at the University of North Carolina

    Verizon, Vodafone, and Measuring FDI

    Recently back from APSA in Chicago, I've been reflecting on the state of our knowledge about FDI (or perhaps more accurately, cross-border management stakes in enterprises). That, and working on my dissertation, applying for academic jobs, and teaching. Oh, and telling everyone who'll listen about my Optimus Prime sighting on Michigan Ave.Anyway, I find a post-conference review of the discipline is generally a good way to consider potentially fruitful lines of new inquiry. In my experience, the quality of papers at conferences can be rather hit-or-miss. This generally fits into my view of conferences as important sources of external deadlines for getting drafts done as well as interacting with other scholars in more informal settings such as the hotel bar/lobby/over-cro...more

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  • The Duck of Minerva

    Why Defining Terrorism Matters

    This is a guest post by Karolina Lula, a PhD student at Rutgers-Newark.---------------The terrorism industry has grown exponentially since 9/11.  Whenever a terrorist attack occurs, a plethora of terrorism scholars eagerly spoon out their collective wisdom.  The chance to be included in the over-caffeinated media spotlight justifies decades cooped up in small offices pouring over data. In a certain respect, terrorism scholars mirror their subject.  They both love an audience.              Despite their growing presence in the media, academics fail to persuade others about what terrorism is in the first place.  Language evolves and academia is only one source of influence.  T...more

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  • The Duck of Minerva

    Planning to be Shocked

    One of the most repeated, and most dubious, axioms about strategy is the notion that being proactive is wiser than being reactive, and that reactivity is something we should be allergic to. In the words of Briain's foreign secretary William Hague, 'the nation that is purely reactive in foreign policy is in decline.' Likewise, written into the folklore of the US foreign policy establishment is the notion that the 'strategic shocks' that struck America - such as Imperial Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor or 9/11 - happened because Washington was passively sleeping. A quick read of Presidential speeches on the anniversary of that attack shows how powerful the creed of active vigilantism lives on, even if it doesn't power all of America's day to day behaviour.Never mind that a...more

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  • The Duck of Minerva

    Quick Note

    If you haven't been seeing any posts for a few months, that's because we moved to http://www.whiteoliphaunt.com/duckofminerva/. Some readers have informed us that the redirect may not be behaving for some subset of RSS feed readers. If that's the case, you can subscribe to the new feed at http://www.whiteoliphaunt.com/duckofminerva/?feed=rsshttp://whiteoliphaunt.com/duckofminerva/?feed=rss...more

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  • Political Animal

    Wednesday's Mini-Report

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  • Political Animal

    The need for partisan cover

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  • Political Animal

    House rebuffs Boehner, scraps F-35 Jet Engine Program

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Otaviano Canuto

Otaviano Canuto is Senior Advisor on BRICS Economies in the Development Economics Department, World Bank, a new position established by President Kim to bring a fresh research focus to this increasingly critical area. He also has an extensive academic background, serving as Professor of Economics at the University of Sao Paulo and University of Campinas (UNICAMP) in Brazil.

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