EconoMonitor

Economics Blog Aggregator

    Global Macro

  • The Fabius Maximus website

    A new format for the Fabius Maximus website!

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  • The Big Picture

    The Demand for Short-Term, Safe Assets and Financial Stability

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  • TIME

    Lego Has Unveiled a New Avengers Play Set and It Costs More Than an Xbox One

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  • International Political Economy Zone

    Bravery = Stupidity? Alibaba Takes on the PRC

    In a fight between Alibaba and the PRC, I'd bet on the PRC to win. There's interesting news out today on Alibaba, China's giant business-to-business (B2B), business-to-consumer (B2C), and consumer-to-consumer (C2C) Internet giant. Just in September of last year, it supposedly set the record for the world's biggest initial public offering (IPO), making Jack Ma and company very wealthy people. I can only imagine that they were overjoyed then. But than was then and this is now: Alibaba stock is taking a beating since its earnings fell well below expectations in 3Q 2014. Alibaba now being a global company, its stock is sensitive to market sentiment the world over even if its reporting is a quarter later than that of US companies. Partly it's bad timing as Alibaba has g...more

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    Something is assortative in the state of Denmark

    From a recently published research paper by Gustaf Bruze: Counterfactual analysis conducted with the model suggests that Danish men and women are earning on the order of half of their returns to schooling through improved marital outcomes. For the pointer I thank the excellent Kevin Lewis, and there are ungated versions here. ...more

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    Omniscient sellers (an email from Alex Rosaen)

    I’ve been puzzling through a thought experiment, and I hope it interests you enough that you will choose to address it on your blog… The logical endgame of all this consumer data mining, web tracking, ad targeting, and loyalty clubs is what I am calling “omniscient sellers.” Omniscient sellers know with 100% certainty how effective an ad will be and what it will take to get a consumer to change consumption decisions. What happens then? Here are some bullets on what I’ve come up with: * Consumers’ attention becomes even more valuable than it is now, and the rewards for controlling that attention even greater (Facebook, Google, the NBA salary cap all explode even more?). * Consumers feel very happy because they are largely consuming ...more

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  • TIME

    Indian Woman Sues Uber in the U.S. Over Alleged New Delhi Taxi Rape

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    The role of demography in explaining secular stagnation

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    A new Vox Debate on Secular Stagnation

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Momentum trading, return chasing, and predictable crashes

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  • naked capitalism

    Andrew Bacevich: Save Us From Washington’s Visionaries, In (Modest) Praise of a Comforting Mediocrity

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  • naked capitalism

    Who is Still Exposed to Greece?

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  • Marc to Market

    Major Currencies Stuck in Range, while Antipodeans become Unstuck

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  • John Quiggin

    LNP needs a Plan C

    There’s been a lot of discussion about the fact that the Queensland LNP needs a Plan B, in case they are returned to government, but Campbell Newman loses his seat of Ashgrove. No one seems to have noticed that they really need a Plan C, for the case when neither party wins an absolute majority, which would almost certainly imply a loss for Newman. A couple of points arise here * Both Newman and Labor leader Anna Palaszczuk have ruled out a minority government. But with Newman gone, some other LNP leader might say his position was inoperative * The Governor needs to call on someone to attempt the formation of a government. That could be Newman, Palaszczuk, some other LNP figure or even an independent. ...more

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  • Econbrowser

    More on U.S. Employment, Post-Trough

    Reader rtd states “it is virtually guaranteed that after a nation’s business cycle trough, that same nation’s employment growth will display an upward trend.” I thought this an interesting enough assertion that it merited additional investigation. If one were looking at data in the US from the beginning of the nonfarm payroll series until the 1990-91 recession, this characterization would be apt, as shown in Figure 1. Figure 1: Log nonfarm payroll employment (blue). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Long dashed line at end of WWII. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER and author’s calculations. Employment rises almost immediately after the NBER defined troughs. Inspection of the recessions since 1990-91 exhibit a much different behavior. (On a side...more

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  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Linky Linky...

    Alan S. Blinder: Beware of Woolly-Minded Attacks on the Fed http://www.wsj.com/articles/alan-s-blinder-beware-of-woolly-minded-attacks-on-the-fed-1422401124 Avery Palmer: States with Weak Gun Laws and Higher Gun Ownership Lead Nation in Gun Deaths, New Data for 2013 Confirms http://www.vpc.org/press/1501gundeath.htm Jeet Heer: The New Republic's Legacy on Race: From Du Bois to the Bell Curve http://www.newrepublic.com/article/120884/new-republics-legacy-race Peter Weinhart: "Augustine is the first to address rape victims with consolatio, and in so doing he turns consolation into social critique: [Melanie Webb] ‘his consolation cannot simply be an exhortation to rape-survivors to re-orient themselves within a society that regards them with shaming suspicion. It must a...more

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  • TIME

    How Amazon Just Posted its First Profit in Months

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  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Liveblogging 300 BC: Fall: "Stag Hunt" Mosaic Created by Gnosis

    **Gnosis creates the "Stag Hunt" mosaic in the "House of the Rape of Helen" in Pella, Kingdom of Macedonia: Wikipedia: Stag Hunt Mosaic: The Stag Hunt mosaic (c. 300 BCE) by Gnosis is a mosaic from a wealthy home of the late 4th century BC, the so-called 'House of the Abduction of Helen' (or 'House of the Rape of Helen'), in Pella, the capital of the Macedonian Kingdom. It is now in the Pella Archaeological Museum. The emblema is bordered by an intricate floral pattern, which itself is bordered by stylized depictions of waves. The mosaic is a pebble mosaic with stones collected from beaches and riverbanks which were set into cement. As was perhaps often the case, the mosaic does much to reflect styles of painting. The light figures against a darker background ma...more

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  • The Big Picture

    Charlie Rose: Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba

    Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba, the largest e-commerce company in the world, interviewed at the World Economic Forum in Davos. We conclude with Haider Al-Abadi, Prime Minister of Iraq, also interviewed in Davos. ...more

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  • Marc to Market

    Deep Dive: Is EMU Irreversible or Not?

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  • The Fabius Maximus website

    Women in combat are the real Revolution in Military Affairs

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  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Afternoon Must-Read: Gernot Wagner: Climate Shock: It's Not Over 'Til the Fat Tail Zing

    Gernot Wagner: Climate Shock: It's Not Over 'Til the Fat Tail Zings: "Presenting his new book ‘Climate Shock’... ...co-authored with Martin Weitzman. If you had a 10 percent chance of having a fatal car accident, you’d take necessary precautions. If your finances had a 10 percent chance of suffering a severe loss, you’d re-evaluate your assets. So if we know the world is warming and there’s a 10 percent chance this might eventually lead to a catastrophe beyond anything we could imagine, why aren’t we doing more about climate change right now? We insure our lives against an uncertain future--why not our planet?... ...more

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Some Links

    (Don Boudreaux) My colleague Pete Boettke was recently interviewed by The Daily Bell.  A slice: Closer to home, at GMU we have established a new research center that I am directing and Chris Coyne is the associate director. We have continued to grow our graduate student programs under the direction of Virgil Storr, and our journal editing – Review of Austrian Economics, The Independent Review, Public Choice, and Advances in Austrian Economics – as well as our editing of book series, including Cambridge Studies in Economics, Choice and Society, the Routledge series on Foundations of the Market Economy and the Edward Elgar series, New Thinking in Political Economy. Independent of our editing, my colleagues in our new center have been very active publishing books. Ch...more

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  • The Big Picture

    Tallest Chart in the History of Manhattan Real Estate

    From Miller Samuel: With the closing and recording of the record $100.47 million penthouse sale at One57, I thought it was time to dust-off the tall chart I created in 2012 when the prior record price of $88M at 15 Central Park West was set. This week I ended up writing a piece about tall towers in my Bloomberg View column called Living the High Life, another one on Curbed NY for my Three Cents Worth called Proving New York’s Blockbuster $100M Sale Is An Outlier which provided some needed context for the new record sale in the following scattergraph. Note the $100.47M record sale in the upper right hand corner and then scroll down…a lot. Source: Miller Samuel ...more

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    Further assorted links

    1. How smart is the unconscious mind? 2. Mexico City nudge markets in everything, they can no longer say “I don’t give a squat.” 3. The culture that is New Zealand. 4. Is Nigeria also an overrated economy? 5. Price theory summer camp at Chicago. 6. Profile of the new Niskanen Center. ...more

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  • naked capitalism

    2:00PM Water Cooler 1/29/15

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  • Paul Krugman

    I Do Not Think That Number Means What You Think It Means

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    The John Blundell Studentship Initiative

    (Don Boudreaux) From the Adam Smith Institute: We are delighted to announce the creation of the John Blundell Studentships initiative, which will offer annual grants to pro-freedom students for postgraduate study. John was a tireless promoter of the free society and the free economy. Teachers, students, activists, professionals and politicians around the world were brought to an understanding of these ideas, and to become activists themselves, through John’s unique efforts. Read more about this worthy effort named in honor of a truly remarkable man. ...more

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  • Economist's View

    A Moral Case for Bank Money

     [Very busy day today, so for now just three quick excerpts.] Tim Johnson: A moral case for bank money: Finance is a skeleton that supports the development of a healthy society, not a utility that plumbs the economy together. The justification for this observation is historical. Richard Seaford has argued that the culture that emerged in Greece some two and a half thousand years ago, creating a unique approach to science and democratic politics, was a consequence of a peculiar Greek invention; money, a token that signifies trust between citizens. The flowering of European culture, and the genesis of modern science, in thirteenth century Europe followed, and some argue was a consequence of, a period of rapid monetisation of society that ini...more

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  • Economist's View

    Greece, EMU and Democracy

    More on Greece from Antonio Fatas: Greece, EMU and democracy: One more post on Greece, possibly not the last one. Markets are more worried about what is going on and there is more and more talk about the possibility of and exit of Greece from the Euro area. As I have argued in my previous posts, exit will not be the choice of the Greek government, it will be the only solution for Greece as the ECB refuses to provide liquidity to Greek banks as depositors run to avoid capital losses on their Euro deposits in the scenario of Greece leaving the Euro. Let me start by repeating (as I have expressed many times in this blog) that I find that the economic policies followed in Europe have been a disaster, that the suffering that countries such as Greece had to go through dur...more

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  • Economist's View

    Inequalities, National and Global

    Joseph Joyce: Inequalities, National and Global: The publication of Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century brought attention to an issue that has been slowly seeping into public discourse. President Obama’s State of the Union address made it clear that we will not need to wait until the 2016 Presidential campaign to hear proposals to rectify the rise in inequality. But the data and trends of global inequality reveal a more complex situation than the national states of affairs that Piketty highlights. ......more

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  • Marc to Market

    Great Graphic: Is Germany Going Where Japan has Never Been?

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    Price Theory Summer Camp

    This seems like a great opportunity for econ grad students.

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  • Beat the Press

    Why Does the Washington Post Call the Trans-Pacific Partnership a "Free-Trade" Pact?

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Quotation of the Day…

    (Don Boudreaux) … is from page 98 of Robert Higgs’s 2004 volume, Against Leviathan (footnote excluded): And make no mistake: the politicians know a good deal when they stumble into one.  Large majorities of voters continue to support the attack on drug users and dealers, notwithstanding the soaring costs of imprisoning more and more people.  Says James Alan Fox, dean of the College of Criminal Justice at Northeastern University, “For politicians, the drug debate is driven by the three R’s – retribution, revenge, retaliation – and that leads to the fourth R, reelection.”  Never underestimate the capacity of the American public to cough up money for drum-beating politicians to squander in righteous and futile assaults on sin. ...more

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  • Beat the Press

    Arithmetic Is Very Simple, But It's Still True

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  • The Fabius Maximus website

    Winter Storm Juno warns scientists not to burn away their credibility

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  • Econbrowser

    Implications for Economic Growth of Governor Walker’s Proposed Higher-Ed Funding Cuts

    From Foxnews: Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is calling for steep cuts to the University of Wisconsin System, while offering the network more freedom in exchange, … [H]is university plan … would cut funding by $300 million over two years… Source: Berger-Fisher (2013). This measure would amount to a 13% cut in state funding to the university system. In addition, the Governor’s proposal includes a continued tuition freeze until 2017, after which time tuition changes would be unconstrained. That means under the Governor’s plan, funding levels would be reduced, while the university is prevented from raising revenues. Layoffs seem plausible. [1] I find this approach to dealing with the state’s calamitous fiscal situation [2] (exacerbated by...more

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  • The Skeptical Speculator

    Markets fall despite Fed patience

    The Federal Reserve left monetary policy unchanged on Wednesday. While the Fed noted in its monetary policy meeting statement that economic activity has been expanding at a “solid pace”, it also said that it “can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy”. Investors did not seem to take much comfort from the Fed statement though. Markets mostly fell on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 1.4 percent, US 10-year Treasury yields fell 10 basis points to 1.72 percent and oil plunged 3.9 percent. In Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 managed to close up 0.1 percent. However, Greece’s 10-year bond yields rose 87 basis points to 10.35 percent, Italy’s 10-year yield increased six basis points to 1.59 percent and Portugal’s climbed 15 basis points to 2....more

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  • International Political Economy Zone

    2017, the Year Indian Growth (Finally?) Beats China's

    As per the story of the and the hare, the World Bank is predicting something that's been a long time coming: With China slowing from its years of (reported) double-digit growth year in and year out to focus more on growth quality rather than quantity on one hand and India (hopefully) speeding up with a reformist, pro-market leadership under Nejendra Modi on the other, the World Bank is predicting that 2017 is the year Indian's growth rate moves ahead of China's. See the 2015 Global Economic Prospects from which the chart above is taken from. Onto the story: This is a short-term forecast based on some very specific circumstances. India, for example, now has a credible central banker [Raghuram Rajan] doing sensible things like tackling inflation. The country's popular new...more

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    The One Percent, Updated

    Piketty and Saez have updated their famous one-percent graph to 2013.  It is above. (Click on graphic to enlarge.)One thing that commentators sometimes fail to notice is that the big increase in the one percent's income share came between 1980 and 2000. Since 2000, it has fluctuated but without much of a trend.  Why, then, are we all talking about income inequality only now? I am not sure. One hypothesis is that we don't worry about inequality when everyone is doing well. Another hypothesis is that we now have a president with a political ideology that sees inequality as especially pernicious....more

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  • Paul Krugman

    Whitewashing the Crazy, Fed Edition

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  • Free exchange

    The north-south divide

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  • Paul Krugman

    Thinking About the New Greek Crisis

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  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    A Big Step Forward for Bolstering Financial Inclusion

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  • Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

    Interest rates, exchange rates, and the Bank of Canada

    Last week the Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate of interest from 1.00% to 0.75%. The exchange rate dropped 2 cents (about 2.5%) on the news. [Update: I forgot to add (because I figured Canadians already knew it, but then remembered others probably wouldn't) that the Bank of Canada has "done nothing" (with interest rates) for the last 4 years, but the exchange rate has dropped about 20% over the last 2 years. And that's important background for my story.] Consider a very simple economy with only two goods: apples and bananas. It's a non-monetary economy; apple producers and banana producers swap apples and bananas because people produce only one good but like to consume both goods. So there's a relative price of apples to bananas, Pa/Pb. Peo...more

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  • Beat the Press

    More Debt Fetishism at the Washington Post

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  • Econbrowser

    The Economics of China, and More

    Two extremely useful books on China and the Chinese Currency: The Oxford Companion to the Economics of China and Renminbi Internationalization: Achievements, Prospects, and Challenges. The The Oxford Companion to the Economics of China is edited by Shenggen Fan, Ravi Kanbur, Shang-Jin Wei, and Xiaobo Zhang. Here are the contents: Part 1: The China Model 1: Xiaopeng Luo: From a Manipulated Revolution to Manipulated Marketisation: A Logic of the Chinese Model 2: Joseph Stiglitz: Transition to a Market Economy: Explaining the Successes and Failures 3: Chen Zongsheng: Chinese Residents’ Rising Income Growth and Distribution Inequality 4: Edwin Lim: The Influence of Foreign Economists in the Early Stages of China’s Reforms 5: Pranab Bardhan: China and Indi...more

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  • International Political Economy Zone

    PRC Goes From Devaluing to Defending Yuan

    Pile 'em high, but don't sell 'em cheap: the yuan circa 2015.China amassing $4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves by 2014 is an astounding if somewhat mindless feat. Everyone thought that a developing country amassing $1 trillion in reserves was mad; what more four times that amount? It's not because the dollar is tanking at the moment--quite the opposite.  Rather, all that money cannot be spent on things that can spur Chinese development like health and education. After all, they are foreign reserves whose previous purpose was to keep the yuan weaker than economic fundamentals would apply to help Chinese export competitiveness. Apparently, with dollar strength causing turmoil in global markets, China is hardly immune. The fear in China is not that it will becom...more

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  • Free exchange

    Adam Smith on the financial crisis

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  • The Skeptical Speculator

    Markets fall as US durable goods orders show decline

    Markets fell on Tuesday. The S&P 500 fell 1.3 percent amid concerns on the economy. A report on Tuesday showed that orders for US durable goods declined 3.4 percent in December after falling 2.1 percent the prior month. The STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.0 percent, ending an eight-day rally that had taken it to a seven-year high. Greek stocks fell 3.7 percent, extending declines since Sunday’s elections to 6.9 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.9 percent after closing at a more than five-year high on Monday. The US dollar fell against the euro and yen while the US 10-year Treasury yield fell one basis point to 1.82 percent. Among commodities, copper fell 3.2 percent but gold, natural gas and oil rose....more

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    The 2014 Employment Boom

    Why did employment grow by about 3 million in 2014?  Here is the answer from a new paper:We measure the effect of unemployment benefit duration on employment. We exploit the variation induced by the decision of Congress in December 2013 not to reauthorize the unprecedented benefit extensions introduced during the Great Recession. Federal benefit extensions that ranged from 0 to 47 weeks across U.S. states at the beginning of December 2013 were abruptly cut to zero. To achieve identification we use the fact that this policy change was exogenous to cross-sectional differences across U.S. states and we exploit a policy discontinuity at state borders. We find that a 1% drop in benefit duration leads to a statistically significant increase of employment by 0...more

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  • John Quiggin

    Abbott, Knight and Bishop

    In making my predictions for 2015, I was tempted to predict that Abbott would last out the year, mainly on the basis of inertia, but decided it was too risky (Commenter Fran B sensibly went the other way). I’m already glad of that: even before Sir Phil, it seemed as if he was on the skids. Assuming Abbott goes (still not certain, but looking more likely with every hour), Julie Bishop looks like a sure thing to replace him. She has looked pretty good as Foreign Minister (if you’re willing to overlook a massive cut in foreign aid), but that’s relatively easy, largely a matter of not messing up. If she does take over, she’ll need to do more than that. To demonstrate that there’s a real change, she’ll have to break with Abbott on some ...more

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  • John Quiggin

    Queensland election

    In the opening days of the Queensland election campaign, I thought the most likely outcomes were either a narrow LNP victory or a minority government of some kind*. But the campaign has been a disaster for the LNP and for Campbell Newman in particular. He is now in the ludicrous position of refusing to answer any questions, except to repeat scripted lines about jobs. And he is suing and being sued by all sorts of people, mostly from groups traditionally associated with the political right. The big issue has been asset sales, and again the LNP strategy has been bizarre. Having cut services in breach of all their promises, they are now promising to restore them (notionally funded by the proceeds of asset sales) but only in electorates where the LNP wins. Labor has avoide...more

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  • Free exchange

    The Greek Revolt

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  • Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

    Does monopoly power cause inflation? (1968 and all that)

    Here's a question for you: Suppose there is a permanent increase in monopoly power across the economy (either firms having more monopoly power in output markets, or unions having more monopoly power in labour markets). Would that permanent increase in monopoly power cause a permanent increase in the inflation rate? Most economists today would answer "no" to that question. It might maybe cause a temporary once-and-for-all rise in the price level, but it would not cause a permanent increase in the inflation rate. The question just sounds strange to modern economists' ears. They would much prefer to discuss whether a permanent increase in monopoly power caused a permanent reduction in real output and employment. What has monopoly power got to do with infl...more

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  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    What’s not to love about free data

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  • Smart Economy

    UPDATE on the Carbon[60] Hydrated Fullerenes-The Highest Antioxidant in the World

    Scientists  have made a  significant leap in cancer research. You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete. R. Buckminster Fuller 90% of all cancer deaths come from cancer spreading in the body from one organ to another, called metastasis. Stop metastasis, stop many unnecessary premature cancer deaths. Belgium researches in 2014 determined that cancer metastasis  can only occur if there are excess free radicals in the body. Specifically they conclude: “under certain conditions, the mitochondria produce more free radicals known as superoxide ions (O2.-). It is this overproduction of superoxide that leads to the formation of metastasis and, consequently, the growth of a tumor...more

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  • The Skeptical Speculator

    Markets rally on ECB bond-buying announcement

    Markets rose last week, and not for the first time, investors have a central bank to thank. On Thursday, the European Central Bank announced after its monetary policy meeting that it would be buying 60 billion euros of sovereign bonds and other debt securities every month from March through September next year in an effort to avert deflation. Stocks rose on Thursday on the decision, helping markets to finish the week up. The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 2.1 percent last week for its biggest weekly gain of the year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.6 percent. The STOXX Europe 600 jumped 5.1 percent to the highest since December 2007. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 3.8 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 3.5 percent. The euro fell 3.1 percent aga...more

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  • Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

    Ontario Finances Not Quite On Target This Year

    As Ontario moves into budget season, it is instructive to take a quick look at the finances to date as revealed in the most recent Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review which was presented November 2014.  Ontario’s aim then as no doubt now was to have the budget balanced by 2017-18.   According to the Review, between 2013-14 and 2017-18, total expenditures (including the reserve) were expected to rise from 126.4 to 134.5 billion dollars – an increase of 6.4 percent.  Meanwhile, revenues are expected to rise from 115.9 to 134.5 billion dollars – an increase of 16 percent.  Over a four year period, one can estimate that total expenditures are expected to grow about 1.6 percent annually and revenues about 4 percent annually. For On...more

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  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    Learning to Live with Cheaper Oil in the Middle East

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  • Alpha.Sources

    Exclusive: Transcript from ECB canteen 14.00 CET 22/11/15

    With sincere apologies to Geri Halliwel   -- The Eurostoxx is rising Bears are getting low  According to our sources  The ECB’s the place to go    Cause' today for the first time  Just about half past two  For the first time in history It's gonna start raining euros    It's raining euros Hallejulah It's raining euros Amen   It's raining euros Hallejulah It's raining euros Amen   The periphery is rising  Weideman’s getting low  According to our sources  The ECB’s the place to go    Cause' today for the first time  Just about half past two  For the first time in history It's gonna start rainin euros    It's raining euros Hallejulah It's raining euros ...more

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  • CIPE Development Blog

    Outcry Against Corruption Helps Drive a Change of Leadership in Sri Lanka

    While it is hard to identify all of the issues that drove Sri Lankans during the country’s recent – and for many observers, surprising – elections, a cry for change was evident. Voters had clearly grown tired of corruption, cronyism, and authoritarianism, and there have been widespread calls for investigations into a range of alleged human rights abuses. Continue reading → ...more

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  • CIPE Development Blog

    Technology and Democracy in Burma

    Burma's upcoming elections will be a major test for its fledgling democratic reform process. Technology, more specifically mobile phones, will have a large role to play for both citizens and candidates. Continue reading → ...more

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  • Alpha.Sources

    Dodging Bullets

    What a week. If you are still standing, I suppose that counts for something in itself. I retain my relatively constructive stance towards this not being a repeat of 2008, but we should not be blind. The market is trading shit and anyone being long risk the last six months must feel a bit like Neo from the Matrix. So you managed to dodge the oil bullet, you managed to dodge the HY bullet, you managed to dodge the copper bullet and you managed to dodge the CHF bullet ... but will you dodge the next? Meanwhile, the bull market in benchmark fixed income is now getting silly, and I wonder what comes next. In EM, the higher USD is a drag but people are forgetting that the huge move lower in US rates is normally associated with all kinds of milk and honey in these markets...more

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  • CIPE Development Blog

    Beyond “Doing Business”: The Economic Implications of Public Opinion in Afghanistan

    In early November, the World Bank published its annual “Doing Business Report,” which assesses government regulations that support or constrain business activity across 189 countries. This year, Afghanistan again ranked near the bottom, down one spot from last year, in the 183rd position. The full report on Afghanistan can be found here. Continue reading → ...more

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  • Alpha.Sources

    Too Many Cheerleaders?

    After doing away with the extremes in my recent post, and advocating a continuing constructive market stance based on country and sector rotation, I thought that I needed to put a face on the anti-thesis of Hussman whom I, perhaps unfairly, stung a little bit. You will not find a more hardened advocate for the bull market than Jeffries' David Zervos and his (in)famous Spoos and Blues call, recently re-wamped into a Spoos and Qs variant. In one of his latest missive, he notes;  With all that said, I feel just fine about our Spoos and Q’s call for 2014. Adding that to the trophy shelf with Spoos and Chartreuse, Spoos and Blues, Spoos and Duu's and Spoos and 2s feels pretty sweet! So, let's move on to 2015? Is it still a Spoos and Q’s world? Maybe, but th...more

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Greek elections, democracy, political trilemma, and all that

    Two-and-a-half years ago I wrote a short piece titled "The End of the World as We Know It" which began like this: Consider the following scenario. After a victory by the left-wing Syriza party, Greece’s new government announces that it wants to renegotiate the terms of its agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union. German Chancellor Angela Merkel sticks to her guns and says that Greece must abide by the existing conditions. Fearing that a financial collapse is imminent, Greek depositors rush for the exit. This time, the European Central Bank refuses to come to the rescue and Greek banks are starved of cash. The Greek government institutes capital controls and is ultimately forced to issue drachmas in order to supply domestic liq...more

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Levels of intellectual responsibility

    This piece on “Erdogan’s Willing Enablers” prompts me to put down a few thoughts on the role that various members of the Turkish media and intelligentsia have played in enabling the steady deterioration of the political climate in Turkey over the last decade. What stands out with these intellectuals is that, even if they were not in all cases liberal in outlook, they all claimed to espouse values consistent with Western democracy: respect for human rights, civil liberties, and the rule of law.    I don’t want to go over the entire saga of how leading Turkish intellectuals continually misrepresented what was happening over this period and bought into the Gulenist narrative, while overlooking the accumulating repression of media freedoms and violations...more

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  • CYNICONOMICS

    2014 Most Viewed Posts

    We posted sporadically this year – with nothing at all after July – but added up our page views anyway. Here are the five most widely read posts, based on page views on CYNICONOMICS as well as three other sites that publish our articles and report our stats (Zero Hedge, Market Oracle and Seeking Alpha): #5 with 41,690 views: “Why You Shouldn’t Fall For These Corporate Capex Fallacies.” We critique four popular arguments about capital expenditures, while showing that history contradicts all but one of the four. #4 with 44,509 views: “Reviving the ‘Real World’ Scenario That’s Disappeared from Government Reports.” We adjust the CBO’s official budget projections for glaring deficiencies in its “baseline scenario,” from an overly optimistic economi...more

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    Ex Ante versus Ex Post Social Policy

    I have written various posts on social policy related to the question of whether and how we redistribute income. One argument of equal opportunity and social egalitarianism is that it is fair to control for the randomness of life. For example, take the luck of the draw in who your parents are. If your best career choice was to be born into a wealthy family, if you got ahead because your father could pull strings to get you an internship at a big investment bank; because you built up your high school resume by spending a summer building houses in Tibet while a classmate had to spend the summer working at the 7-11; or because you could afford two years of one-on-one tutoring for the SAT, the result might be to score higher in an objective standard of selection and have a ...more

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    On Death with Dignity

    We take the will to live as a positive attribute, and naturally so; it is, of course in our genes.  Whatever subset of our species took a lackadaisical view toward the prospect of death was screened out long ago. We look with admiration on those who battle against terminal illness --  “She’s a real fighter” -- and look down on those who take their own lives. Fighting for your life is the genetic prime directive.   Thus the recent death of Brittany Maynard spurred a flurry of news articles and posts on the Death with Dignity movement. There will be a lot more to come on this topic, and the movement will gather steam because whatever is in the crosshairs of the baby boomers weighs down on society as a whole. Soon the baby boomers will come to the...more

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    Uber: What could possibly go wrong

    Uber at the core is nothing more than a bunch of guys who came up with a clever app for streamlining the way you call for a car.  Rather than phoning or texting, you tap on the app.  Rather than paying with cash or credit cards, you have an account.  And rather than depending on the reputation of the car company, you depend on the ratings-based reputation of the specific driver. (Another feature, the pre-determined fare, with that fare essentially including all fees including tip, is nothing new for car services). And, by the way, it is readily replicable by any other car services, including those that already have a reputation and experienced drivers.  So it seems to me that it is only mildly innovative.  How do you build a successful world-wid...more

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  • Institutional Economics

    Capital Gains Tax Reform in Canada: Lessons from Abroad

    The Fraser Institute has released a new volume on international experience with capital gains taxes. I wrote the chapter on New Zealand, with some reference to Australia. Australia was deemed too similar to Canada to warrant a chapter in its own right....more

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  • The Street Light

    Transfer Pricing Economics

    I'd like to announce that after a long hiatus from blogging, I'm taking it up again in a new forum.  The new blog, Transfer Pricing Economics, is primarily devoted to exploring my particular area of professional specialty, namely "transfer pricing".  If that term doesn't mean anything to you, then feel free to check out my brief explanation of transfer pricing. My aim is to expose and analyze the connections between the arcane world of transfer pricing and broader developments in the economic and financial world. And the connections are significant: the rules and economic logic of transfer pricing have a direct impact on trillions of dollars of international trade every year. So please feel free to check in on and contribute to the discussions about these...more

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Services, manufacturing, and new growth strategies

    I gave a talk yesterday on New Growth Strategies at the World Bank, which was more or less an elaboration of this short piece. I argued that industrialization had pretty much run out of steam as a growth strategy, that services would need to be the focus going forward, and that this required in turn a different policy mindset about how to increase productivity. In particular, I argued that policies focusing on generating a sequence of sectoral “winners,” which worked so  well in manufacturing (garments to car seats to cars to electronics), would have much smaller payoff in services, in view of the non-tradability of most service segments. I suggested further that, even under the best of circumstances, a services-oriented strategy would yield lower growth than ...more

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  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    The Return of Voodoo Economics

    Paul Krugman’s column in the New York Times today talked of the revival of “Voodoo economics” by some Republican politicians.  This refers to the Laffer Proposition that a cut in income tax rates stimulates economic activity so much that tax revenue goes up rather than down.   Gov. Sam Brownback, who is running for re-election in Kansas, has had to confront the reality that tax revenues went down, not up as he argued they would, when he cut state tax rates. I disagree with one thing that Krugman wrote in his column: the idea that there was a long break,  particularly after George W. Bush took office, during which Republican politicians did not push this line.  To the contrary, I have collected many quotes from George W. Bush and his top officials claiming the...more

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  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    Piketty’s Fence

    Most of the reviews of Thomas Piketty’s book Capital in the Twenty-First Century have already been written.  But I thought it might be best to read it all the way through before offering my own thoughts on this book, which startlingly rose to the top of the best seller lists last April.  It has taken me five months, but I finished it. One of the things the book has in common with the Karl Marx’s Das Capital (1867) is that it serves as a rallying point for the many people who are passionately concerned about inequality, regardless whether they understand or agree with the specific arguments contained in the book in question.  To be fair, much of what Marx wrote was bizarre and very little was based on careful economic statistics.  Much of what Piketty says is ba...more

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  • Smart Economy

    Belgian Researchers Discover Way to Block Cancer Metastasis

      Free Radicals and Cancer Metastasis KEY QUOTE:  The Belgian team led by Sonveaux has found the mechanism by which cells can control changes caused at least in part by free radicals. The free radical involved in the metastacism of tumor cells is superoxide. Tests in mice on melanoma and breast cancer cells showed that administering an antioxidant stopped the production of superoxide. That, in turn, prevented cell changes that would lead to metastasis.   N.B. This is confirmation why Carbon 60 Hydrated Fullerenes stops cancer metastasis, by scavanging free radicals that cause cancer. Ukrainian scientists have known this for over ten years!!--Walter Derzko September 18, 2014 12:28 AM                 WASHINGTON— Cancer remains one of the dea...more

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  • Smart Economy

    New non-invasive technique could revolutionize the imaging of metastatic cancer

                     IMAGE:   This is Paul Fisher, M.Ph., Ph.D., Thelma Newmeyer Corman Endowed Chair in Cancer Research and co-leader of the Cancer Molecular Genetics research program at VCU Massey Cancer Center, chairman of... Click here for more information.      Bioluminescence, nanoparticles, gene manipulation – these sound like the ideas of a science fiction writer, but, in fact, they are components of an exciting new approach to imaging local and metastatic tumors. In preclinical animal models of metastatic prostate cancer, scientists at Virginia Commonwealth University Massey Cancer Center, VCU Institute of Molecular Medicine and Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions have provided proof-of-principle of a new molecular...more

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  • Institutional Economics

    I am leaving CIS and returning to financial markets

    This is my last week at CIS. I will be returning to financial markets from whence I came back in 2008. Thanks to Greg Lindsay for giving me a platform to participate in the public policy debate over the last few years. Thanks also to those who contributed to Policy while I was editor over the last 18 months. Policy will continue under a new editor. My new employer won’t be paying me to blog or tweet during business hours, so you will be hearing even less from me on what is already a very low frequency blog. I will still post material here from time to time and link to what I am doing when appropriate. Needless to say, nothing on this web site should be attributed to current or previous employers. This blog has followed me around in various roles since 2003, back whe...more

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  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    Modi, Sisi & Jokowi: Three New Leaders Face the Challenge of Food & Fuel Subsidies

    In few policy areas does good economics seem to conflict so dramatically with good politics as in the practice of subsidies to food and energy.  Economics textbooks explain that these subsidies are lose-lose policies. In the political world that can sound like an ivory tower abstraction.   But the issue of unaffordable subsidies happens to be front and center politically now, in a number of places around the world.   Three major new leaders in particular are facing this challenge:  Sisi in Egypt, Jokowi in Indonesia, and Modi in India. The Egyptian leader is doing a much better job of facing up to the need to cut subsidies than one might have expected.  India’s new prime minister, by contrast, is doing worse than expected – even torpedoing a long-anticipated ...more

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  • Institutional Economics

    Wayne Swan on Monetary Offset and the GFC

    Former Treasurer Wayne Swan is releasing some of his briefing notes from the GFC ahead of the launch of his upcoming memoir, The Good Fight. The first instalment from a meeting at the Prime Minister’s residence with the Prime Minister, Treasury Secretary and other senior officials on 4 August 2008 is remarkable for its acknowledgement of monetary offset. Indeed, the notes could just as easily have been written by Scott Sumner: There are three broad considerations the Government would need to keep in mind in taking a decision to engage in discretionary [fiscal] action: • The Reserve Bank through its control over interest rates, determines the overall level of aggregate demand in the economy, and the Bank would likely take account of any fiscal stimulus in its monet...more

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  • CYNICONOMICS

    Technical Notes for ‘Never Mind Their Distrust of Data and Forecasts…’

    This is a short appendix for our earlier post, “Never Mind Their Distrust of Data and Forecasts; Austrians Can Help You Predict the Economy,” in the usual Q&A format. Why do you show three different series in the first chart? We show “Net Private Debt from Census Bureau” because it has the longest history. We use it later to calculate 5-year credit growth figures for the period before the Fed’s “flow of funds” becomes available. We deduct financial and real estate corporation debt in the second dotted line to show that private debt growth in the late 1920s wasn’t skewed by financial debt (as it was in the 2000s). We can only back out financial debt from 1926 (not enough data to use in the “savings rates and credit growth” chart), but this series...more

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  • CYNICONOMICS

    Never Mind Their Distrust of Data and Forecasts; Austrians Can Help You Predict the Economy

    [O]f all the economic bubbles that have been pricked, few have burst more spectacularly than the reputation of economics itself. – From The Economist, July 16, 2009. It’s been five years since the The Economist magazine published the critical commentary  excerpted above. In hindsight, the noted reputational damage was neither lasting nor spectacular. As of today, we’d say it’s almost non-existent. Mainstream economists continue to dominate their profession and wield huge influence on public policies. They merely needed to close ranks after the financial crisis and wait for people to forget that their key theories and models were wholly discredited. Meanwhile, heterodox economists who stress credit market risks and financial fragilities – the Austrians, the Mi...more

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Farewell

    In memoriam: Gary S. Becker, 1930-2014. The Becker-Posner blog is terminated. Richard A. Posner

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  • Felix Salmon

    Post Felix

    By Shane Ferro Today is Felix’s last day at Reuters. Here's the link to his mega-million word blog archive (start from the beginning, in March 2009, if you like). Because we’re source-agnostic, you can also find some of his best stuff from the Reuters era at Wired, Slate, the Atlantic, News Genius, CJR, the NYT, and NY Mag. There’s also Felix TV, his personal site, his Tumblr, his Medium archive, and, of course, the Twitter feed we all aspire to. Counterparties may have been the brainchild of Felix and the recently departed Ryan McCarthy, but the blog, site, newsletter, and Twitter feed will continue to exist in their absence. It will be run by Ben Walsh and Shane Ferro, with some non-trivial amount of snark. Today we focus on the reason Felix started Counterparti...more

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  • Felix Salmon

    The Piketty pessimist

    By Felix Salmon This chart comes from the World Economic Forum’s 2014 Global Risks Report, which came out just before Thomas Piketty’s book started becoming the topic of discussion in economic and plutocratic circles.* You can clearly see what you might call the rise of inequality-as-an issue: before 2012 it’s nowhere to be found, but since then it’s been consistently in the top spot. My prediction is that in 2015, thanks to Piketty, the WEF will start talking less about income inequality, and more about wealth inequality. The big question, though, is whether inequality is really much of a risk at all. After all, from the point of view of the average billionaire WEF delegate, inequality would seem to look much more like a reward. Chrystia Freeland has a hopeful...more

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  • Felix Salmon

    The most expensive lottery ticket in the world

    By Felix Salmon No Exit, the new book from Gideon Lewis-Kraus, should be required reading for anybody who thinks it might be a good idea to found a startup in Silicon Valley. It shows just how miserable the startup founder’s life is, and raises the question of why anybody would voluntarily subject themselves to such a thing. A large part of the answer is that Silicon Valley is gripped by a mass delusion, compounded by a deep “fake it til you make it” attitude toward success. Why do so many people in Silicon Valley want to be founders? Because every founder they meet is always killing it, crushing it, having massive success, just about to close a huge round, etc etc. At some level, they must know this is impossible: if 90% of startups fail, it simply can’t be the...more

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Sabbatical Notice

    Starting this weekend, we will be taking a one-month sabbatical from blogging. We will resume at the end of that period.

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    The Embargo of Cuba: Time to Go- Becker

    The US embargo of Cuba began in 1960, a year after Fidel Castro turned this island toward communism. It was extended to food and medicines in 1962, the same year as the showdown with Russia over the installation of missiles there. The embargo has prevented American companies from doing business with Cuba, and discouraged tourism to Cuba. The American government also tried with quite limited success to prevent other countries from trading with Cuba. In general economic embargoes are undesirable because they interfere with free trade among countries. Yet a case could be made for an embargo against Cuba. Castro not only allowed Russian missiles to be installed in Cuba, just 90 miles from Florida, but was also actively trying to interfere in other countries by sending troop...more

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  • Stefan Karlsson's blog

    New Blog Address: http://stefankarlssoneng.wordpress.com/

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  • Stefan Karlsson's blog

    Ukraine Crisis Isn't Over

    So now the so-called protestors have overthrown democratically elected President Yanukovich in what is in effect a coup. It is unclear what will happen, and how Russia and Yanukovich and his supporters will act, but this is almost certainly not the end of it.Indeed, how could it be the end? Some people argue that protestors were motivated by anger over corruption and abuse of power from Yanukovich. But while Yanukovich is no doubt corrupt and some protestors may indeed have been motivated by anger over that fact, the opposition movement led by Yulia Tymoschenko is just as corrupt as Yanukovich, so if they prevail, that won't mean less corruption and abuse of power.No, what this conflict is really about is that today's Ukraine is an artificial state created by Soviet com...more

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  • Stefan Karlsson's blog

    How Old Posts Can Become Popular Again

    Suddenly, my post about why Ukraine should be divided between its anti-Russian and pro-Russian parts has seen a dramatic increase in page views. That is no doubt related to the latest escalation of Ukraine's political crisis with both government forces and the neo-Nazi elements of the opposition increasingly using violent means in the confrontation. Ukraine is dangerously close to a full scale civil war. Let's hope that it doesn't come to that. Ukraine has been ravaged for a century by wars, German Nazis, Communism, corruption and ethnic conflict, to add a(nother) civil war would be really cruel. I remain convinced that secession is the best way to solve the conflict peacefully....more

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  • The Oil Drum - Discussions about Energy and Our Future

    The Oil Drum writers: Where are they now?

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  • International Political Economy at the University of North Carolina

    Why US Financial Hegemony Will Endure

    Will and I have a piece, now ungated, over at a fantastic new online magazine called Symposium. Our article translates much of the main points of our Perspectives Piece (co-authored with Thomas and Andy Pennock) for popular consumption. We are also blogging over there this week in support of the article. Please do check out our writing this week on the magazine's website, as well as the other great content on the site....more

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  • International Political Economy at the University of North Carolina

    Foreign Direct Investment, Human Rights, INGOs

    One of the major areas of underdeveloped research within political science is the interaction between non-state actors. From an international political economy perspective, the literature has largely ignored the interaction of various non-state actors that are growing in importance, and its effects on different forms of trade. In a recently published article "Avoiding the Spotlight: Human Rights Shaming and Foreign Direct Investment" by Colin Barry, Chad Clay and Michael Flynn, they lay the foundation for examining this interaction. They examine the interaction between non-state actors (INGOs) and multinational corporations (MNCs) and the extent to which private actors' choices to invest in countries are affected by the reputational costs of doing business in those...more

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  • The Oil Drum - Discussions about Energy and Our Future

    The Last Post

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  • The Oil Drum - Discussions about Energy and Our Future

    The House That Randy Built

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  • International Political Economy at the University of North Carolina

    Verizon, Vodafone, and Measuring FDI

    Recently back from APSA in Chicago, I've been reflecting on the state of our knowledge about FDI (or perhaps more accurately, cross-border management stakes in enterprises). That, and working on my dissertation, applying for academic jobs, and teaching. Oh, and telling everyone who'll listen about my Optimus Prime sighting on Michigan Ave.Anyway, I find a post-conference review of the discipline is generally a good way to consider potentially fruitful lines of new inquiry. In my experience, the quality of papers at conferences can be rather hit-or-miss. This generally fits into my view of conferences as important sources of external deadlines for getting drafts done as well as interacting with other scholars in more informal settings such as the hotel bar/lobby/over-cro...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-09

    Given that I block NSA & PRISM tweets, was entertaining tuning into twitter & trying to figure why everyone was on about Lord Snowdon -> Turned on GoT tonight just in time to catch Daenerys reenacting her Level 2 YMCA gymnastics pageant. -> How Not to Be Alone | Jonathan Safran Foer – http://t.co/HMFxg75lfh http://t.co/DzAtvWBQJr -> Excellent, but fellow sports-med geeks only: Sports and exercise-related tendinopathies: a review – http://t.co/WGkhRlO6Uz -> ...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-07

    Photo-set: Flooding Across Central Europe – http://t.co/8G6j8teCbd -> CDC Update: Severe Respiratory Illness Associated with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus – http://t.co/hWqN1338VN -> Col Flagg: Have you ever heard of Malaysian Chest Implosion Torture? Radar: No. Coll Flagg: Good. It hasn’t been invented… yet. -> tl;dr: There are Manchurian Candidate engineers at large tech cos that have stolen SSL root cert and NSA is using it for cattle mutilation. -> Brian: …Will you please listen? I'm not the Messiah! Do you understand? Honestly Woman: Only the true Messiah denies his divinity! -> ...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-05

    FRED: Free Energy Data – http://t.co/90H7GVDazO -> Solipsisms ‘r’ us, courtesy of my friends at @thinkup: I apparently mention me a lot – http://t.co/9rTRXvBM9D -> Almost 10,000 words on soccer/Italy/economics/racism by @wrightthompson? Yes, & it’s super. Go. http://t.co/g4sgEFLkIC -> When The Beautiful Game Turns Ugly: A journey into the world of Italy's racist soccer thugs http://t.co/nckrbeLPfs -> Can’t remember last time I read an OpEd or column. Do those still exist? -> ...more

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  • The Street Light

    Cyprus and Eurozone Bank Deposits

    To me, the central issue raised by this week's Cyprus debacle is how it has affected confidence across the eurozone.  To what degree has the possibility of insured depositors at a eurozone bank losing a portion of their deposits affected the mindset of depositors?  To what degree has ECB acquiescence to this possibility undermined the notion that deposit insurance in the eurozone means the same thing in all countries?  And to what degree has the ECB's direct threat to end support for Cyprus's banking system in the event that the government of Cyprus can not arrange sufficient funds to meet its conditions made a farce of its earlier promise to "do whatever it takes to preserve the euro"?These, to me, are the interesting questions prompted by this week's ev...more

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  • London Banker

    Chop Off Their Hands . . .

    President Truman famously called for a one handed economist. The Carolingian kings of France would have accommodated him. They realised that a kingdom required a common currency under the control of the king and well regulated markets to sustain the confidence of the people. At first mints were established widely, spread across the kingdom. Local barons began to profit from debasing the coinage, undermining confidence in the monetary system. So Charles the Bald established mints under his direct control and regulated the issue of coins: C.12. Following the custom of our predecessors, just as it is found in their capitularies, we decree that in no other place in all our kingdom shall money be made except in our palace, and in St. Josse and Rouen, which right in th...more

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  • The Street Light

    When the Fed Chair is an Academic

    The big economic news of the week was, in fact, big economic news: the Fed's announcement of significant changes from past practice in the the quantity of its next round of large scale asset purchases ("unlimited"), and in the timing of any future reversal of this expansionary policy ("a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens").I view this as a pretty fundamental shift in how the Fed hopes to affect the economy.  Rather than trying to push economic activity one way or the other through its management of interest rates (which can alter economic activity through its portfolio-rebalancing and wealth effects, for example), the Fed is now quite explicitly trying to affect economic activity by altering interest rate and inflation expectations.  As...more

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  • London Banker

    For Want of a Nail, the Ship Was Lost

    Imagine a great ship dominating the skyline on a distant sea. Imagine the complexity of that ship: keel, ribs, planks, masts, spars, and an infinite number of less readily named components. Each component was hand-crafted by a craftsman skilled in his trade, to precise requirements, and secured in position to take the stress and strain of a life at sea.Now imagine a crew. They didn't build the ship. The crew are told that the one and only purpose of the ship is to realise a profit for every man jack aboard. Any hand not contributing a profit will be turned ashore. Down below in the ship are nails. Thousands and thousands of nails. Nails are useful. Nails are much sought after in every port the ship enters. Nails can be readily sold and never traced. The crew h...more

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  • London Banker

    Lies, Damn Lies and LIBOR

    I've been hesitant to write about the LIBOR scandal because what I want to say goes so much further. We now know that Barclays and other major global banks have been manipulating the calculation of LIBOR through the quotation data they provided to the British Bankers Association. What I suspect is that this is not a flaw but a feature of modern financial markets. And if it was happening in LIBOR for between 5 and 15 years, then the business model has been profitably replicated to many other quotation-based reference prices.Price discovery is not a sexy function of markets, but it is critical to the efficient allocation of scarce capital and resources, and to the preservation of the long term wealth of investors and the economy as a whole. If price discovery is compr...more

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Håvard Halland Håvard Halland

PHåvard Halland is a natural resource economist at the World Bank, where he leads research and policy agendas in the fields of resource-backed infrastructure finance, sovereign wealth fund policy, extractive industries revenue management, and public financial management for the extractive industries sector. Prior to joining the World Bank, he was a delegate and program manager for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Colombia. He earned a PhD in economics from the University of Cambridge.