EconoMonitor

Economics Blog Aggregator

    Global Macro

  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Links and Tweets...

    Mike Konczal: "There’s no evidence that we are having a technology renaissance right now, or that technology has contributed in a major way to the weak recovery, or that a skills gap or other educational factor is holding back employment, or that highly skilled workers are having a great time in the labor market..." http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/what-are-robots-doing-rebalancing-our-inequality-intellectual-portfolio Scott Lemieux: You Can't Spell "Reformicon" Without "Con" http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2015/03/cant-spell-reformicon-without-con)] Morning Must-Read:* Uwe Reinhardt*: Medicare: A Seasoned Adult Conceived and Born in Sin http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=9638 Mark Thoma (2009): Economist's View: Are Macroeconomic Models Useful? http://economi...more

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  • TIME

    How a 15-Year-Old Started a Booming Babysitting Business

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  • TIME

    Apple to Replace AT&T in the Dow Jones Industrial Average

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  • naked capitalism

    Debunking the Claim that Inequality Fell After the Crisis

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  • TIME

    11 Amazing Features of the Apple Watch

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  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Cyclical and Structural Employment Gaps: An Announcement

    In the past year, the cyclical employment gap for prime-aged males has shrunk and is now smaller than the structural employment gap: That is all.

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  • Marc to Market

    US East Coast Shovels Out, but Jobs Report is Hot

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  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Noted for Your Morning Procrastination for March 6, 2015

    Must- and Shall-Reads: Sendhil Mullainathan: Departmental Seminar: Machine-learning in Economics Matthew C. Klein: 2009 FOMC transcripts Scott Lemieux: "People say that having cameras in the courtroom would undermine the solemn seriousity of Supreme Court oral arguments.... Antonin Scalia might start ranting like a third-tier winger talk radio host! Stephen Breyer might start asking lengthy... hypotheticals that... don’t... go... anyplace! Michael Carvin might come off like a sexist bully!... The justices already play to an audience; there’s no neutral form of oral argument that televised proceedings would undermine." Mark Thoma (2009): Economist's View: Are Macroeconomic Models Useful? Carola Binder: Federal Reserve Communication with Congress Uwe Reinhardt: Me...more

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  • The Big Picture

    What the Fed Will Be Looking at in Today’s Employment Report

    Today’s employment report may be hard to read: The severe weather in the Northeast and Midwest affected the Labor Department’s data-collection process. The weather has been so disruptive that department  employees can’t even get into the office on time to release this morning’s report. For the first time ever, it’s being released online. But as I am so fond of writing, no one monthly report matters very much. Rather, it is the trend of job loss or creation that matters. Toward that end, I will ignore this month’s release and discuss what has been going on during the past 12 months. I believe there are several areas that warrant your attention, if only for the reason that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is watching them as well. Continues here &n...more

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    Friday assorted links

    1. Ross Douthat on King v. Burwell. 2. The most American headline ever? 3. Japan may legalize noisy children. 4. David Brooks on the continuing importance of education. 5. Vincent van Gogh’s reds have been turning white. ...more

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Quotation of the Day…

    (Don Boudreaux) … is from page 205 of the 1992 collection of some of William Graham Sumner’s best essays, On Liberty, Society, and Politics (Roger C. Bannister, ed.); specifically, this quotation is from Sumner’s famous 1883 essay “The Forgotten Man“: All history is only one long story to this effect: men have struggled for power over their fellow-men in order that they might win the joys of earth at the expense of others and might shift the burdens of life from their own shoulders upon those of others. Sumner’s statement offers an important truth, but it is a truth that his here somewhat overstated.  It’s not literally all history – but it is in fact most of history.  Fortunately for those of us in the modern, commercial world, some his...more

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  • naked capitalism

    Corporate Greed is Killing Investment

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  • The Big Picture

    10 Friday AM Reads

    This has been quite the week. Here are your pre-NFP morning train reads: • Fees matter more than asset allocation (FT) see also Why You Owe Your Freedom to Jack Bogle (Total Return) • Number of ultra-rich swells to almost 173,000 (The Guardian) • Shilling: Look Out Below, Copper’s Falling (BV) • Fed’s Williams: Ready to Consider Rate Rises Starting This Summer (Real Time Economics) see also Six Charts That Tell the Story of the Unfathomably Bleak Economy the Fed Faced in 2009  (Real Time Economics) • Apple Found Its Newest Billboards On The Internet (BuzzFeed) Continues here     ...more

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  • naked capitalism

    Links 3/6/15

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  • Marc to Market

    All About ECB and US Jobs

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  • Free exchange

    Healthcare in America, India's budget and secular stagnation

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  • The Big Picture

    Bentley’s Speed 6

    Source: Classic Driver

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  • Economist's View

    Links for 03-06-15

    Why the Federal Reserve Bank Needs Defending - John Cassidy Is China changing its exchange rate policy? - Gavyn Davies Deflation, inflation, oil prices and asymmetries - mainly macro Austerity and recovery: East Asian lessons for Europe - Vox EU Pareto on Pareto optimum - Branko Milanovic Wages as social constructs - Stumbling and Mumbling Could Reduced Drilling Also Reduce GDP Growth? - macroblog Granger Causality & Seasonal Adjustment - Dave Giles Lifting Off...Sooner or Later - MacroMania 30 Things No One Tells You About Leaving Oregon - Movoto Interview with Paul M.W. Tucker - Cecchetti & Schoenholtz The Demolition of Workers’ Compensation - ProPublica What Trickle-Down Economics Has Done to the US - Dan Riker Negative Interest Rates, the ZLB, and True Ca...more

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    Why Grexit matters for even a healthy eurozone situation

    Jean Pisani-Ferry makes a few good arguments, this is the most interesting: …an exit would force European policymakers to formalize their so-far unwritten and even unspecified rules for divorce. Beyond broad principles of international law – for example, that what matters for deciding an asset’s post-divorce currency denomination are the law governing the underlying contract and the corresponding jurisdiction – there are no agreed rules for deciding how conversion into a new currency would be carried out. A Grexit would force these rules to be defined, therefore making it clear what a euro is worth, depending on where it is held, by whom, and in what form. Indeed this would not only make the break-up risk more imaginable; it would also make it much more ...more

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Network-based insights for economists

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Austerity and recovery: East Asian lessons for Europe

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  • Econbrowser

    Some Empirics Regarding Right to Work Laws

    Wages in right to work states are lower than those others. After controlling for various factors, the gap remains. Empirical Analysis of Wage Gap The Congressional Research Service summarizes the empirical literature in this 2012 report. A recent empirical analysis using micro data from the Current Population Survey is by Gould and Shierholz (2011). Figure 1 presents the wages differentials for right to work states, based on a simple comparison, a model with no controls, a basic model, and a model with full set of controls. Figure 1: (Log) wage differentials in right to work states, 2009. Basic set of controls include age, age squared, race/ethnicity, education indicators, sex, marital status, urbanicity, hourly worker, full-time worker, union status, major industry, ...more

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    How nonconsumption shapes desire

    That is a new paper (pdf) by Xianchi Dai and Ayelet Fishbach,the abstract is here: The proposed model suggests that desire depends on the length of nonconsumption of a good and the presence of salient alternatives, and that desire is at least partially constructed. In the absence of salient alternatives, a longer nonconsumption period results in stronger desire for the unconsumed good. However, in the presence of salient alternatives, individuals infer that they have developed new tastes, and thus a longer nonconsumption period results in a weaker desire for the unconsumed good. Five studies support this model across nonconsumption of various  goods: food from home when attending college (study 1); chametz food during the Passover holiday (study 2); social media (i.e....more

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  • International Political Economy Zone

    Revive Japan by Selling Toilet Seats to Chinese Tourists

    To rescue Japanese retail in particular, get Chinese tourists to buy, er, fancy toilets?Ohhh, this one takes the cake: Given how ineffective Shinzo Abe's efforts to reflate Japan's economy have been through purely monetary means, I suppose this effort makes as much sense as any. Despite all his strident anti-PRC rhetoric to please Japanese hardliners, the truth of the matter is that he's eased the process of allowing Chinese visitors to enter Japan. For what purpose? To buy stuff, of course. Supposedly, a major beneficiary of this exchange is duty-free retailer Laox, whose stock is up a lot as a result. Bestsellers among PRCC visitors include intelligent rice cookers and toilet seats. The weak yen is helping the yuan stretch further to the benefit of mainland shoppers:T...more

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  • Beat the Press

    Mark Cuban Does the Bubble Beat

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  • The Fabius Maximus website

    Status report on the US economy: darkening sky, rough waves ahead.

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    An Open Letter to a Politician

    (Don Boudreaux) Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) Capitol Hill Washington, DC Ms. Lee: Your essay yesterday at Medium.com is a textbook example of demagoguery fueled by arrogance, ignorance, and (what I will assume is careless) misinterpretation of statistics (“CEOs Are Rewarded for Keeping Their Employees in Poverty. It’s Time to Change That”).  An example of the latter is your claim that “[s]ince 1987, pay for the average worker has barely budged…. Families got squeezed as prices rose and paychecks froze.”  But as every respectable economics undergraduate student knows, a measure of average wages can be highly misleading about changes in the pay of flesh-and-blood people, especially if (as is true for the U.S. workforce) there are changes in the population fro...more

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  • CIPE Development Blog

    Holding Pakistan’s Government Accountable on Tax Reform

    The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML (N)) government is completing its second year in power on May 11, 2015. It is astonishing to observe that the accountability process for democratically elected government has improved significantly. Continue reading → ...more

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  • Paul Krugman

    Heavy Politics

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Some Links

    (Don Boudreaux) Cato’s Ted Galen Carpenter wisely warns against entangling alliances.  A slice: As my colleague Doug Bandow has correctly observed, Washington collects allies with less thought and discrimination than most people collect Facebook friends.  In doing so, we also collect all of the disputes and feuds that those “friends” wage with other parties.  That is an unnecessary and unwise policy for a superpower. Jon Murphy, over at A Force for Good, exposes yet further errors in Paul Krugman’s quite bad column on Wal-Mart and the minimum wage.  And Bob Murphy does the same.  Here’s a slice from Bob’s post: However, in this post I want to focus on two other points that I haven’t seen Krugman’s critics address. First, it is a very...more

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  • Economist's View

    'Economists' Biggest Failure'

    Noah Smith: Economists' Biggest Failure: One of the biggest things that economists get grief about is their failure to predict big events like recessions. ...  Pointing this out usually leads to the eternal (and eternally fun) debate over whether economics is a real science. The profession's detractors say that if you don’t make successful predictions, you aren’t a science. Economists will respond that seismologists can’t forecast earthquakes, and meteorologists can’t forecast hurricanes, and who cares what’s really a “science” anyway.  The debate, however, misses the point. Forecasts aren’t the only kind of predictions a science can make. In fact, they’re not even the most important kind.  Take physics for example. Sometimes...more

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  • Economist's View

    'Washington Strips New York Fed’s Power'

    I wasn't aware of this, apparently for good reason: Washington Strips New York Fed’s Power, by Jon Hilsenrath, WSJ: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, once the most feared banking regulator on Wall Street, has lost power... The Fed’s center of regulatory authority is now a little-known committee run by Fed governor Daniel Tarullo , which is calling the shots in oversight of banking titans such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc . The new structure was enshrined in a previously undisclosed paper written in 2010 known as the Triangle Document. ... The power shift, initiated after the financial crisis and slowly put in place over the past five years, is more than a bureaucratic change. ... During internal debates on a range of issues ... New York Fed...more

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  • Free exchange

    Let the show begin

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    An Open Letter

    March 5, 2015 The Honorable John Boehner Speaker House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 The Honorable Mitchell McConnell Majority Leader United States Senate Washington, DC 20510  The Honorable Nancy Pelosi Minority Leader House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515  The Honorable Harry Reid Minority Leader United States Senate Washington, DC 20510 Dear Mr. Speaker, Mr. Leader, Madam Pelosi, and Senator Reid:International trade is fundamentally good for the U.S. economy, beneficial to American families over time, and consonant with our domestic priorities. That is why we support the renewal of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) to make it possible for the United States to reach international agreements with our economic partners in Asia through the Tran...more

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  • Econbrowser

    Is the United States Protected from the European Debt Crisis?

    For those of you in San Diego I wanted to call attention to a roundtable discussion this Friday March 6 on some of the ongoing concerns about European sovereign debt. I’ll be appearing along with Jeffrey Frieden from Harvard (who will be quite familiar to regular readers of Econbrowser) and David Leblang of the University of Virginia. Details on how to register for the event can be found here. ...more

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  • Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

    A Very Brief History of Demand and Supply

    I’m teaching History of Economic Thought again this year and during my progression through the material this term what has struck me is the very long road over time –literally hundreds of years - to understanding markets and value as the simultaneous interaction both supply and demand side factors culminating in the standard diagram of price and quantity determination in a market. There was recognition of separate demand and supply side factors and even adjustment to some idea of equilibrium as far back as the medieval period but the concepts were like ships passing in the night when it came to price determination.  However, what also struck me is how much of the theory of demand and supply was ultimately grasped nearly simultaneously in the nineteenth century...more

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  • Marc to Market

    Euro Head Fake, Bounces Only to Sell-Off on Draghi

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  • Free exchange

    Big data meets the double mandate

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  • Beat the Press

    The WaPo Inadvertently Tells Readers Why the Government Never Takes Action Against an Over-valued Dollar

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  • International Political Economy Zone

    Strong Dollar? US Currency Manipulation Bills Return

    US lawmakers are again seeing red(s) over currency manipulation.The post title should be a dead giveaway as to the subject matter here. Last decade, there were all sorts of currency bills being flogged by American lawmakers [1, 2] to punish China for having an excessively weak currency achieved through "manipulation" as its foreign exchange reserves and its bilateral trade surplus with the US swelled. Remarkably, these bills were being readied by Democrats and Republicans alike, making China-bashing a bipartisan sport--especially among lawmakers whose constituencies had large import-competing sectors.Fast-forward to 2015. The United States appears set to lead the world in raising interest rates. Therefore, the US dollar has been on a tear as of late. With US competitive...more

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  • The Fabius Maximus website

    Steps to make the tech revolution boost America, not just the 1%.

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  • John Quiggin

    One weird trick that proves the IGR is nonsense

    I have a piece in today’s Guardian, written before the release of the Intergenerational Report and making the case that the intergenerational equity problem, as it was conceived in the 1980s and 1990s has already been resolved. Key quote The resolution of the intergenerational fiscal problem was a major public policy achievement of the reform era of the 1980s and 1990s. But a political class still fixated on the most ideological version of the reform agenda, in which cutting public spending is desirable in and out of season has refused to drop the club of intergenerational equity. The idea that (very modest) budget deficits and public debt levels constitute “robbing our children” remains a staple in calls for “reform”. Having seen the IGR, there’s a ...more

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Transportation costs and industrial clustering: New evidence

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  • The Fabius Maximus website

    A key to understanding the news: the unexpected rules in our age of wonders.

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    The Lee-Rubio Tax Reform

    Senators Mike Lee and Marco Rubio announced a bold and attractive tax plan today. I especially appreciate their desire to eliminate the current tax code's bias for debt over equity finance....more

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  • CIPE Development Blog

    Building a Future for Syria’s Youth

    Check out this short video above about the course which includes some of our conversations with recent graduates and our colleagues at SEF. With the support and encouragement of the private sector, these inspiring young people have the ability to write a new chapter in Syria’s history, defined not by tragedy but by peace and prosperity. CIPE is proud to share their stories with you. Continue... ...more

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    No Way to Avoid It

    In my column on dynamic scoring, I wrote:[A]ccurate dynamic scoring requires more information than congressional proposals typically provide. For example, if a member of Congress proposes a tax cut, a key issue in estimating its effect is how future Congresses will respond to the reduced revenue. This raises important questions for which we have no easy answers. In the coming years, will these Congresses respond quickly to the revenue shortfall, or will they let budget deficits fester? When they act to close the budget gap, will they increase taxes, or will they cut spending? If they cut spending, will it be on consumption items, such as health care for the elderly, or on growth-promoting investments, such as education for the young? The impact of the initial tax c...more

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  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    Building A Monetary Union in Africa

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  • Econbrowser

    Guest Contribution: “Analyzing Recent Trends in the U.S. Wealth Distribution”

    Today we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Ricardo T. Fernholz, Assistant Professor of Economics at Claremont McKenna College. Recent trends in income and wealth inequality have drawn much attention from both academics and the general public. Atkinson, Piketty, and Saez (2011) and Saez and Zucman (2014), among others, document these trends for different countries around the world and have prompted a substantive debate about the underlying causes and the appropriate policy responses, if any. A General Approach In new research (Fernholz, 2015), I develop a general statistical model of wealth distribution to address these issues empirically. This approach overlaps both the empirical literature on income dynamics (Guvenen, 2009; Browning et al., 201...more

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  • International Political Economy Zone

    China's Century or Its Lost Century? The Japan Analogy

    Once the Rockefeller Center--and the future-were supposedly Japan's. Same with China?I am old enough to remember the go-go days when Japan was the all-conquering hero of the world economy. Americans feared Japan buying it up. The epitome of this fear-mongering Stateside was Mitsubishi's purchase of the Rockefeller Center in 1989 for a then-astronomical sum...which preceded Japan entering its current stagnation by just a year as their stock market bubble burst. Fast-forward to today and many Asia-bashers are singing the same tune: China is not the next hegemon but rather the next Japan. (This is not a compliment.) Take it from one of those who are said to have predicted Japan's marginalization:Forecasts for China to surpass the U.S. as the world’s main economic power a...more

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  • Beat the Press

    NYT Misses the Story on the Fed and African American Unemployment

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  • Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

    The Land Theory of Value

    Last night I spoke with my Dutch ancestor again. Nick van Rowe told me about the Land Theory of Value, which began with the French, but was perfected by the Dutch. This is what he told me: Science has proved that land existed prior to both labour and capital. The Universe existed billions of years before humans and their tools appeared. So if we seek the underlying source and origin of all value, we must look to land. The value of all commodities is determined by the socially necessary quantity of land needed to produce those commodities. And human labour is just one of those many commodities produced by land. So is horse labour. Human labour is just an intermediate good. Land produces wheat, wheat produces human labour, and human labour produces haircuts. So if we buy ...more

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  • Paul Krugman

    How Negative Can Rates Go?

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  • The Skeptical Speculator

    Markets mixed but US stocks hit record high

    Markets were mixed on the first trading day of March. In the US, the S&P 500 rose 0.6 percent to another record high. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.9 percent to cross 5,000 for the first time since 2000. Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose nine basis points to 2.09 percent. However, the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.2 percent. Portugal’s 10-year yield declined for a 14th successive day, the longest run on record, to an all-time low of 1.74 percent. Italy’s 10-year yield dropped to a record 1.294 percent. Oil also fell, with Brent falling 4.9 percent and West Texas Intermediate slipping 0.3 percent....more

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  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    Down But Not Out

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  • Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

    A silly question for anti-austerians

    Let's make up some silly numbers. Suppose the national debt was, let's say, 1,000% (ten times) annual GDP. And suppose the budget deficit was, let's say, 50% of GDP. And suppose your economy hit the Zero Lower Bound, and suppose you thought that your own central bank's monetary policy could do no more to increase aggregate demand, but more aggregate demand was needed. 1. Would those numbers lead you to hesitate before recommending tax cuts or increased government spending to increase aggregate demand? 2. If I divided both those numbers by fifty, would you still hesitate? If you answered "yes" to the first question, the punchline writes itself: we have already established that you are an austerian; we are just haggling over the price. I'm n...more

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  • Paul Krugman

    Larry Kudlow and the Failure of the Chicago School

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  • John Quiggin

    Monday Message Board

    Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

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  • John Quiggin

    Sandpit

    A new sandpit for long side discussions, idees fixes and so on. Unless directly responding to the OP, all discussions of nuclear power, MMT and conspiracy theories should be directed to sandpits (or, if none is open, message boards). ...more

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  • The Skeptical Speculator

    Risk appetite returns but is it enough to sustain the bull market?

    Risk appetite among investors rose in February. Stocks rallied last month, bringing the bull market closer to its sixth anniversary. The MSCI All-Country World Index jumped 5.5 percent, its best monthly performance in three years, and set a new intraday record on Thursday in the process. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 5.6 percent for its best month since October 2011. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged 6.9 percent. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose 4.2 percent. In the bond market, United States Treasuries, a safe haven among global investors, fell in February, pushing the 10-year yield up 37 basis points to just over 2 percent. However, junk bonds rose in February, with the SPDR Barclays High-Yield Bond ETF gaining 2.1 percent, its biggest increase since June 2012...more

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  • The Skeptical Speculator

    Equity dividend yields exceed government bond yields

    Government bond yields have fallen so much over the last few years that we are now seeing an unusual phenomenon. From the Buttonwood column in The Economist: Buy bonds for income and equities for growth. That is what many a financial adviser will tell you. But it isn't really true any more. According to Citigroup, the dividend yield on the equity market is higher than the 10-year government bond yield in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan and the UK. In the US, the two yields are neck-and-neck but equity investors can get an extra cashflow boost from buy-backs. The current pattern contrasts with that of the last 50 years, when equities usually yielded less than government bonds because of the potential for the dividends to grow. It is, however, similar to the pa...more

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  • CIPE Development Blog

    Pakistan and India: Irreconcilable or Just Stubborn?

    Pakistan and India share a long, unyielding history. The past is marred with political and territorial conflict, militarization, and a general sense of mistrust on both sides. Since 2003, trade between the two countries has grown seven-fold, with Indian imports into Pakistan taking 80 percent of the share, according to data reported by International Trade Centre. While formal figures report... ...more

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  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    Fiscal Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Latin America and the Caribbean

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Premature deindustrialization in the developing world

    Mention “deindustrialization,” and the image that comes to mind is that of advanced economies making their way into the post-industrial phase of development. In a new paper,[1] I show that the more dramatic trend is one of deindustrialization in the developing countries. This is a trend that is appropriately called premature deindustrialization, since it means that many (if not most) developing nations are becoming service economies without having had a proper experience of industrialization. Latin America appears to be the worst hit region. But worryingly similar trends are very much in evidence in Sub-Saharan Africa too, where few countries had much industrialization to begin with. The only countries that seem to have escaped the curse of premature industrializati...more

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  • Alpha.Sources

    Regulative Mission Creep?

    The financial sector has been regulated and fined into submission following the crisis, but the equity research team at Credit Suisse had a rebellious thought this weekend. In a piece extolling the virtues of dividend stocks, they postulate the following development: As bond yields fall to zero, duration matching for pension funds and insurance companies becomes nearly impossible and, consequently, we believe there will be significant pressure on regulators to allow higher equity weightings. On the global equity strategy team, we see a scenario where pension funds and insurance companies are allowed to hold a bigger share of their assets in high quality equities if bond yields remain around zero for a prolonged period. The definition of quality, in our view, is likely ...more

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  • Alpha.Sources

    Tightrope Walking

    Investors face some big questions at the moment, and depending on which answer you pick, your asset allocation will differ substantially.  The big macroeconomic question can be summed up in a discussion about inflation v deflation. The global economy are currently affected by three deflationary head winds . Firstly, the need to repair balance sheets following the crisis in 2008; secondly, the slowdown in China and unravelling of investment tied up in the commodities space; and thirdly, rapidly ageing populations in Europe and Japan. Faced with such tremendous forces, you would argue that deflation would easily vanquish inflation any day. But it isn't that simple. The cause and effect between stimulative macroeconomic policies are global in nature, and this creates ...more

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  • Smart Economy

    UPDATE on the Carbon[60] Hydrated Fullerenes-The Highest Antioxidant in the World

    Scientists  have made a  significant leap in cancer research. You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete. R. Buckminster Fuller 90% of all cancer deaths come from cancer spreading in the body from one organ to another, called metastasis. Stop metastasis, stop many unnecessary premature cancer deaths. Belgium researches in 2014 determined that cancer metastasis  can only occur if there are excess free radicals in the body. Specifically they conclude: “under certain conditions, the mitochondria produce more free radicals known as superoxide ions (O2.-). It is this overproduction of superoxide that leads to the formation of metastasis and, consequently, the growth of a tumor...more

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  • Alpha.Sources

    Exclusive: Transcript from ECB canteen 14.00 CET 22/11/15

    With sincere apologies to Geri Halliwel   -- The Eurostoxx is rising Bears are getting low  According to our sources  The ECB’s the place to go    Cause' today for the first time  Just about half past two  For the first time in history It's gonna start raining euros    It's raining euros Hallejulah It's raining euros Amen   It's raining euros Hallejulah It's raining euros Amen   The periphery is rising  Weideman’s getting low  According to our sources  The ECB’s the place to go    Cause' today for the first time  Just about half past two  For the first time in history It's gonna start rainin euros    It's raining euros Hallejulah It's raining euros ...more

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Greek elections, democracy, political trilemma, and all that

    Two-and-a-half years ago I wrote a short piece titled "The End of the World as We Know It" which began like this: Consider the following scenario. After a victory by the left-wing Syriza party, Greece’s new government announces that it wants to renegotiate the terms of its agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union. German Chancellor Angela Merkel sticks to her guns and says that Greece must abide by the existing conditions. Fearing that a financial collapse is imminent, Greek depositors rush for the exit. This time, the European Central Bank refuses to come to the rescue and Greek banks are starved of cash. The Greek government institutes capital controls and is ultimately forced to issue drachmas in order to supply domestic liq...more

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Levels of intellectual responsibility

    This piece on “Erdogan’s Willing Enablers” prompts me to put down a few thoughts on the role that various members of the Turkish media and intelligentsia have played in enabling the steady deterioration of the political climate in Turkey over the last decade. What stands out with these intellectuals is that, even if they were not in all cases liberal in outlook, they all claimed to espouse values consistent with Western democracy: respect for human rights, civil liberties, and the rule of law.    I don’t want to go over the entire saga of how leading Turkish intellectuals continually misrepresented what was happening over this period and bought into the Gulenist narrative, while overlooking the accumulating repression of media freedoms and violations...more

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  • CYNICONOMICS

    2014 Most Viewed Posts

    We posted sporadically this year – with nothing at all after July – but added up our page views anyway. Here are the five most widely read posts, based on page views on CYNICONOMICS as well as three other sites that publish our articles and report our stats (Zero Hedge, Market Oracle and Seeking Alpha): #5 with 41,690 views: “Why You Shouldn’t Fall For These Corporate Capex Fallacies.” We critique four popular arguments about capital expenditures, while showing that history contradicts all but one of the four. #4 with 44,509 views: “Reviving the ‘Real World’ Scenario That’s Disappeared from Government Reports.” We adjust the CBO’s official budget projections for glaring deficiencies in its “baseline scenario,” from an overly optimistic economi...more

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    Ex Ante versus Ex Post Social Policy

    I have written various posts on social policy related to the question of whether and how we redistribute income. One argument of equal opportunity and social egalitarianism is that it is fair to control for the randomness of life. For example, take the luck of the draw in who your parents are. If your best career choice was to be born into a wealthy family, if you got ahead because your father could pull strings to get you an internship at a big investment bank; because you built up your high school resume by spending a summer building houses in Tibet while a classmate had to spend the summer working at the 7-11; or because you could afford two years of one-on-one tutoring for the SAT, the result might be to score higher in an objective standard of selection and have a ...more

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    On Death with Dignity

    We take the will to live as a positive attribute, and naturally so; it is, of course in our genes.  Whatever subset of our species took a lackadaisical view toward the prospect of death was screened out long ago. We look with admiration on those who battle against terminal illness --  “She’s a real fighter” -- and look down on those who take their own lives. Fighting for your life is the genetic prime directive.   Thus the recent death of Brittany Maynard spurred a flurry of news articles and posts on the Death with Dignity movement. There will be a lot more to come on this topic, and the movement will gather steam because whatever is in the crosshairs of the baby boomers weighs down on society as a whole. Soon the baby boomers will come to the...more

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    Uber: What could possibly go wrong

    Uber at the core is nothing more than a bunch of guys who came up with a clever app for streamlining the way you call for a car.  Rather than phoning or texting, you tap on the app.  Rather than paying with cash or credit cards, you have an account.  And rather than depending on the reputation of the car company, you depend on the ratings-based reputation of the specific driver. (Another feature, the pre-determined fare, with that fare essentially including all fees including tip, is nothing new for car services). And, by the way, it is readily replicable by any other car services, including those that already have a reputation and experienced drivers.  So it seems to me that it is only mildly innovative.  How do you build a successful world-wid...more

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  • Institutional Economics

    Capital Gains Tax Reform in Canada: Lessons from Abroad

    The Fraser Institute has released a new volume on international experience with capital gains taxes. I wrote the chapter on New Zealand, with some reference to Australia. Australia was deemed too similar to Canada to warrant a chapter in its own right....more

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  • The Street Light

    Transfer Pricing Economics

    I'd like to announce that after a long hiatus from blogging, I'm taking it up again in a new forum.  The new blog, Transfer Pricing Economics, is primarily devoted to exploring my particular area of professional specialty, namely "transfer pricing".  If that term doesn't mean anything to you, then feel free to check out my brief explanation of transfer pricing. My aim is to expose and analyze the connections between the arcane world of transfer pricing and broader developments in the economic and financial world. And the connections are significant: the rules and economic logic of transfer pricing have a direct impact on trillions of dollars of international trade every year. So please feel free to check in on and contribute to the discussions about these...more

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  • Smart Economy

    Belgian Researchers Discover Way to Block Cancer Metastasis

      Free Radicals and Cancer Metastasis KEY QUOTE:  The Belgian team led by Sonveaux has found the mechanism by which cells can control changes caused at least in part by free radicals. The free radical involved in the metastacism of tumor cells is superoxide. Tests in mice on melanoma and breast cancer cells showed that administering an antioxidant stopped the production of superoxide. That, in turn, prevented cell changes that would lead to metastasis.   N.B. This is confirmation why Carbon 60 Hydrated Fullerenes stops cancer metastasis, by scavanging free radicals that cause cancer. Ukrainian scientists have known this for over ten years!!--Walter Derzko September 18, 2014 12:28 AM                 WASHINGTON— Cancer remains one of the dea...more

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  • Smart Economy

    New non-invasive technique could revolutionize the imaging of metastatic cancer

                     IMAGE:   This is Paul Fisher, M.Ph., Ph.D., Thelma Newmeyer Corman Endowed Chair in Cancer Research and co-leader of the Cancer Molecular Genetics research program at VCU Massey Cancer Center, chairman of... Click here for more information.      Bioluminescence, nanoparticles, gene manipulation – these sound like the ideas of a science fiction writer, but, in fact, they are components of an exciting new approach to imaging local and metastatic tumors. In preclinical animal models of metastatic prostate cancer, scientists at Virginia Commonwealth University Massey Cancer Center, VCU Institute of Molecular Medicine and Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions have provided proof-of-principle of a new molecular...more

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  • Institutional Economics

    I am leaving CIS and returning to financial markets

    This is my last week at CIS. I will be returning to financial markets from whence I came back in 2008. Thanks to Greg Lindsay for giving me a platform to participate in the public policy debate over the last few years. Thanks also to those who contributed to Policy while I was editor over the last 18 months. Policy will continue under a new editor. My new employer won’t be paying me to blog or tweet during business hours, so you will be hearing even less from me on what is already a very low frequency blog. I will still post material here from time to time and link to what I am doing when appropriate. Needless to say, nothing on this web site should be attributed to current or previous employers. This blog has followed me around in various roles since 2003, back whe...more

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  • Institutional Economics

    Wayne Swan on Monetary Offset and the GFC

    Former Treasurer Wayne Swan is releasing some of his briefing notes from the GFC ahead of the launch of his upcoming memoir, The Good Fight. The first instalment from a meeting at the Prime Minister’s residence with the Prime Minister, Treasury Secretary and other senior officials on 4 August 2008 is remarkable for its acknowledgement of monetary offset. Indeed, the notes could just as easily have been written by Scott Sumner: There are three broad considerations the Government would need to keep in mind in taking a decision to engage in discretionary [fiscal] action: • The Reserve Bank through its control over interest rates, determines the overall level of aggregate demand in the economy, and the Bank would likely take account of any fiscal stimulus in its monet...more

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  • CYNICONOMICS

    Technical Notes for ‘Never Mind Their Distrust of Data and Forecasts…’

    This is a short appendix for our earlier post, “Never Mind Their Distrust of Data and Forecasts; Austrians Can Help You Predict the Economy,” in the usual Q&A format. Why do you show three different series in the first chart? We show “Net Private Debt from Census Bureau” because it has the longest history. We use it later to calculate 5-year credit growth figures for the period before the Fed’s “flow of funds” becomes available. We deduct financial and real estate corporation debt in the second dotted line to show that private debt growth in the late 1920s wasn’t skewed by financial debt (as it was in the 2000s). We can only back out financial debt from 1926 (not enough data to use in the “savings rates and credit growth” chart), but this series...more

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  • CYNICONOMICS

    Never Mind Their Distrust of Data and Forecasts; Austrians Can Help You Predict the Economy

    [O]f all the economic bubbles that have been pricked, few have burst more spectacularly than the reputation of economics itself. – From The Economist, July 16, 2009. It’s been five years since the The Economist magazine published the critical commentary  excerpted above. In hindsight, the noted reputational damage was neither lasting nor spectacular. As of today, we’d say it’s almost non-existent. Mainstream economists continue to dominate their profession and wield huge influence on public policies. They merely needed to close ranks after the financial crisis and wait for people to forget that their key theories and models were wholly discredited. Meanwhile, heterodox economists who stress credit market risks and financial fragilities – the Austrians, the Mi...more

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Farewell

    In memoriam: Gary S. Becker, 1930-2014. The Becker-Posner blog is terminated. Richard A. Posner

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  • Felix Salmon

    Post Felix

    By Shane Ferro Today is Felix’s last day at Reuters. Here's the link to his mega-million word blog archive (start from the beginning, in March 2009, if you like). Because we’re source-agnostic, you can also find some of his best stuff from the Reuters era at Wired, Slate, the Atlantic, News Genius, CJR, the NYT, and NY Mag. There’s also Felix TV, his personal site, his Tumblr, his Medium archive, and, of course, the Twitter feed we all aspire to. Counterparties may have been the brainchild of Felix and the recently departed Ryan McCarthy, but the blog, site, newsletter, and Twitter feed will continue to exist in their absence. It will be run by Ben Walsh and Shane Ferro, with some non-trivial amount of snark. Today we focus on the reason Felix started Counterparti...more

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  • Felix Salmon

    The Piketty pessimist

    By Felix Salmon This chart comes from the World Economic Forum’s 2014 Global Risks Report, which came out just before Thomas Piketty’s book started becoming the topic of discussion in economic and plutocratic circles.* You can clearly see what you might call the rise of inequality-as-an issue: before 2012 it’s nowhere to be found, but since then it’s been consistently in the top spot. My prediction is that in 2015, thanks to Piketty, the WEF will start talking less about income inequality, and more about wealth inequality. The big question, though, is whether inequality is really much of a risk at all. After all, from the point of view of the average billionaire WEF delegate, inequality would seem to look much more like a reward. Chrystia Freeland has a hopeful...more

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  • Felix Salmon

    The most expensive lottery ticket in the world

    By Felix Salmon No Exit, the new book from Gideon Lewis-Kraus, should be required reading for anybody who thinks it might be a good idea to found a startup in Silicon Valley. It shows just how miserable the startup founder’s life is, and raises the question of why anybody would voluntarily subject themselves to such a thing. A large part of the answer is that Silicon Valley is gripped by a mass delusion, compounded by a deep “fake it til you make it” attitude toward success. Why do so many people in Silicon Valley want to be founders? Because every founder they meet is always killing it, crushing it, having massive success, just about to close a huge round, etc etc. At some level, they must know this is impossible: if 90% of startups fail, it simply can’t be the...more

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Sabbatical Notice

    Starting this weekend, we will be taking a one-month sabbatical from blogging. We will resume at the end of that period.

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    The Embargo of Cuba: Time to Go- Becker

    The US embargo of Cuba began in 1960, a year after Fidel Castro turned this island toward communism. It was extended to food and medicines in 1962, the same year as the showdown with Russia over the installation of missiles there. The embargo has prevented American companies from doing business with Cuba, and discouraged tourism to Cuba. The American government also tried with quite limited success to prevent other countries from trading with Cuba. In general economic embargoes are undesirable because they interfere with free trade among countries. Yet a case could be made for an embargo against Cuba. Castro not only allowed Russian missiles to be installed in Cuba, just 90 miles from Florida, but was also actively trying to interfere in other countries by sending troop...more

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  • Stefan Karlsson's blog

    New Blog Address: http://stefankarlssoneng.wordpress.com/

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  • Stefan Karlsson's blog

    Ukraine Crisis Isn't Over

    So now the so-called protestors have overthrown democratically elected President Yanukovich in what is in effect a coup. It is unclear what will happen, and how Russia and Yanukovich and his supporters will act, but this is almost certainly not the end of it.Indeed, how could it be the end? Some people argue that protestors were motivated by anger over corruption and abuse of power from Yanukovich. But while Yanukovich is no doubt corrupt and some protestors may indeed have been motivated by anger over that fact, the opposition movement led by Yulia Tymoschenko is just as corrupt as Yanukovich, so if they prevail, that won't mean less corruption and abuse of power.No, what this conflict is really about is that today's Ukraine is an artificial state created by Soviet com...more

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  • Stefan Karlsson's blog

    How Old Posts Can Become Popular Again

    Suddenly, my post about why Ukraine should be divided between its anti-Russian and pro-Russian parts has seen a dramatic increase in page views. That is no doubt related to the latest escalation of Ukraine's political crisis with both government forces and the neo-Nazi elements of the opposition increasingly using violent means in the confrontation. Ukraine is dangerously close to a full scale civil war. Let's hope that it doesn't come to that. Ukraine has been ravaged for a century by wars, German Nazis, Communism, corruption and ethnic conflict, to add a(nother) civil war would be really cruel. I remain convinced that secession is the best way to solve the conflict peacefully....more

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  • The Oil Drum - Discussions about Energy and Our Future

    The Oil Drum writers: Where are they now?

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  • International Political Economy at the University of North Carolina

    Why US Financial Hegemony Will Endure

    Will and I have a piece, now ungated, over at a fantastic new online magazine called Symposium. Our article translates much of the main points of our Perspectives Piece (co-authored with Thomas and Andy Pennock) for popular consumption. We are also blogging over there this week in support of the article. Please do check out our writing this week on the magazine's website, as well as the other great content on the site....more

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  • International Political Economy at the University of North Carolina

    Foreign Direct Investment, Human Rights, INGOs

    One of the major areas of underdeveloped research within political science is the interaction between non-state actors. From an international political economy perspective, the literature has largely ignored the interaction of various non-state actors that are growing in importance, and its effects on different forms of trade. In a recently published article "Avoiding the Spotlight: Human Rights Shaming and Foreign Direct Investment" by Colin Barry, Chad Clay and Michael Flynn, they lay the foundation for examining this interaction. They examine the interaction between non-state actors (INGOs) and multinational corporations (MNCs) and the extent to which private actors' choices to invest in countries are affected by the reputational costs of doing business in those...more

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  • The Oil Drum - Discussions about Energy and Our Future

    The Last Post

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  • The Oil Drum - Discussions about Energy and Our Future

    The House That Randy Built

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  • International Political Economy at the University of North Carolina

    Verizon, Vodafone, and Measuring FDI

    Recently back from APSA in Chicago, I've been reflecting on the state of our knowledge about FDI (or perhaps more accurately, cross-border management stakes in enterprises). That, and working on my dissertation, applying for academic jobs, and teaching. Oh, and telling everyone who'll listen about my Optimus Prime sighting on Michigan Ave.Anyway, I find a post-conference review of the discipline is generally a good way to consider potentially fruitful lines of new inquiry. In my experience, the quality of papers at conferences can be rather hit-or-miss. This generally fits into my view of conferences as important sources of external deadlines for getting drafts done as well as interacting with other scholars in more informal settings such as the hotel bar/lobby/over-cro...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-09

    Given that I block NSA & PRISM tweets, was entertaining tuning into twitter & trying to figure why everyone was on about Lord Snowdon -> Turned on GoT tonight just in time to catch Daenerys reenacting her Level 2 YMCA gymnastics pageant. -> How Not to Be Alone | Jonathan Safran Foer – http://t.co/HMFxg75lfh http://t.co/DzAtvWBQJr -> Excellent, but fellow sports-med geeks only: Sports and exercise-related tendinopathies: a review – http://t.co/WGkhRlO6Uz -> ...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-07

    Photo-set: Flooding Across Central Europe – http://t.co/8G6j8teCbd -> CDC Update: Severe Respiratory Illness Associated with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus – http://t.co/hWqN1338VN -> Col Flagg: Have you ever heard of Malaysian Chest Implosion Torture? Radar: No. Coll Flagg: Good. It hasn’t been invented… yet. -> tl;dr: There are Manchurian Candidate engineers at large tech cos that have stolen SSL root cert and NSA is using it for cattle mutilation. -> Brian: …Will you please listen? I'm not the Messiah! Do you understand? Honestly Woman: Only the true Messiah denies his divinity! -> ...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-05

    FRED: Free Energy Data – http://t.co/90H7GVDazO -> Solipsisms ‘r’ us, courtesy of my friends at @thinkup: I apparently mention me a lot – http://t.co/9rTRXvBM9D -> Almost 10,000 words on soccer/Italy/economics/racism by @wrightthompson? Yes, & it’s super. Go. http://t.co/g4sgEFLkIC -> When The Beautiful Game Turns Ugly: A journey into the world of Italy's racist soccer thugs http://t.co/nckrbeLPfs -> Can’t remember last time I read an OpEd or column. Do those still exist? -> ...more

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  • The Street Light

    Cyprus and Eurozone Bank Deposits

    To me, the central issue raised by this week's Cyprus debacle is how it has affected confidence across the eurozone.  To what degree has the possibility of insured depositors at a eurozone bank losing a portion of their deposits affected the mindset of depositors?  To what degree has ECB acquiescence to this possibility undermined the notion that deposit insurance in the eurozone means the same thing in all countries?  And to what degree has the ECB's direct threat to end support for Cyprus's banking system in the event that the government of Cyprus can not arrange sufficient funds to meet its conditions made a farce of its earlier promise to "do whatever it takes to preserve the euro"?These, to me, are the interesting questions prompted by this week's ev...more

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  • London Banker

    Chop Off Their Hands . . .

    President Truman famously called for a one handed economist. The Carolingian kings of France would have accommodated him. They realised that a kingdom required a common currency under the control of the king and well regulated markets to sustain the confidence of the people. At first mints were established widely, spread across the kingdom. Local barons began to profit from debasing the coinage, undermining confidence in the monetary system. So Charles the Bald established mints under his direct control and regulated the issue of coins: C.12. Following the custom of our predecessors, just as it is found in their capitularies, we decree that in no other place in all our kingdom shall money be made except in our palace, and in St. Josse and Rouen, which right in th...more

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  • The Street Light

    When the Fed Chair is an Academic

    The big economic news of the week was, in fact, big economic news: the Fed's announcement of significant changes from past practice in the the quantity of its next round of large scale asset purchases ("unlimited"), and in the timing of any future reversal of this expansionary policy ("a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens").I view this as a pretty fundamental shift in how the Fed hopes to affect the economy.  Rather than trying to push economic activity one way or the other through its management of interest rates (which can alter economic activity through its portfolio-rebalancing and wealth effects, for example), the Fed is now quite explicitly trying to affect economic activity by altering interest rate and inflation expectations.  As...more

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  • London Banker

    For Want of a Nail, the Ship Was Lost

    Imagine a great ship dominating the skyline on a distant sea. Imagine the complexity of that ship: keel, ribs, planks, masts, spars, and an infinite number of less readily named components. Each component was hand-crafted by a craftsman skilled in his trade, to precise requirements, and secured in position to take the stress and strain of a life at sea.Now imagine a crew. They didn't build the ship. The crew are told that the one and only purpose of the ship is to realise a profit for every man jack aboard. Any hand not contributing a profit will be turned ashore. Down below in the ship are nails. Thousands and thousands of nails. Nails are useful. Nails are much sought after in every port the ship enters. Nails can be readily sold and never traced. The crew h...more

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  • London Banker

    Lies, Damn Lies and LIBOR

    I've been hesitant to write about the LIBOR scandal because what I want to say goes so much further. We now know that Barclays and other major global banks have been manipulating the calculation of LIBOR through the quotation data they provided to the British Bankers Association. What I suspect is that this is not a flaw but a feature of modern financial markets. And if it was happening in LIBOR for between 5 and 15 years, then the business model has been profitably replicated to many other quotation-based reference prices.Price discovery is not a sexy function of markets, but it is critical to the efficient allocation of scarce capital and resources, and to the preservation of the long term wealth of investors and the economy as a whole. If price discovery is compr...more

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Richard Wood Richard Wood

Richard has published papers on wages policy, the taxation of financial arrangements and macroeconomic issues in Pacific island countries. Views expressed in these articles are his own and may not be shared by his employing agency. He is the author of How to Solve the European Economic Crisis: Challenging orthodoxy and creating new policy paradigms