EconoMonitor

Economics Blog Aggregator

    Global Macro

  • Marc to Market

    Germany Surprises, Helps Euro Tick Up

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    The Few Should Be Sacrificed for The Many Redux

    (Don Boudreaux) Rev. Angelina Karrass – who describes herself as a pastor in Queens who “regularly reads” Cafe Hayek “to see how the other side thinks, or as God knows refuses to think” – e-mails me to ask why I “assume the cost of a living [i.e., minimum] wage is larger than the manifest good it does for the disadvantaged.”  My answer appeared in this post from this past April; it’s a letter to another correspondent who posed what is effectively the same question: Mr. Pierre Taverson Dear Mr. Taverson: Thanks for e-mailing.  If I understand your defense of minimum-wage legislation - and your criticism of my opposition to that legislation - you argue that the number of people who gain from the legislation is so ...more

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  • The Big Picture

    Growth First. Then, these other things.

    Clarke and Dawe – Growth first. Then these other things can be dealt with, whatever they are. Published on Nov 19, 2014 “Joe Hockey, Australian Treasurer” Originally aired on ABC TV: 20/11/2014 http://www.mrjohnclarke.com http://www.twitter.com/mrjohnclarke ...more

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  • The Big Picture

    Can risk explain the profitability of technical trading in currency markets?

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  • Economist's View

    Paul Krugman: Rock Bottom Economics

    The era of "rock-bottom economics" is far from over: Rock Bottom Economics, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: Six years ago the Federal Reserve hit rock bottom. It had been cutting the federal funds rate ... more or less frantically in an unsuccessful attempt to get ahead of the recession and financial crisis. But it eventually reached the point where it could cut no more... Everything changes when the economy is at rock bottom... But for the longest time, nobody with the power to shape policy would believe it. What do I mean by saying that everything changes? As I wrote..., in a rock-bottom economy “the usual rules of economic policy no longer apply...” Government spending doesn’t compete with private investment — it actually promotes busi...more

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  • Economist's View

    Links for 11-24-14

    The Skeptics Guide to Institutions - Growth Economics When economic models are unable to fit the data - Vox EU Left, Right and Macroeconomic Competence - mainly macro How professionals think - Understanding Society What Big Economies Got Right, or Wrong, After Crisis - WSJ Wanted: class consciousness - Stumbling and Mumbling Fair shares in pledged carbon cuts - Vox EU Hobson’s Choice v. Cochrane’s Madoff Economics - EconoSpeak ...more

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  • naked capitalism

    Five Bedrock Washington Assumptions That Perpetuate Our Middle East Policy Train Wreck

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  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    The Rebalancing Challenge in Europe: Perspectives for CESEE

    Conference on European Economic Integration (CEEI) Nowotny: calls attention to the relative success of manufacturing- and cross-border heavy economies--the Visegrad Group--in doing relatively well, with a stress on "relatively"... Chakrabarti: Remarkable divergence east of Germany: Poland vs. Croatia. Structural reform especially necessary in post-transition economies. Overhangs: non-performing loans, distressed overleveraged corporations, investment shortage, mobilizing public debt capacity. DeLong: Kuodis, Svensson, Nowotny, Singer, Fabris, Daianu: "For more than two decades economies lived in the dream of the Great Moderation,,," ...more

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  • naked capitalism

    Big Investors Rebelling Against Private Equity Fees

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  • naked capitalism

    Bill Black: Dudley Do Wrong Rejects Being a “Cop” and Embraces “Foaming the Runways”

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    Best non-fiction books of 2014

    First there are the economics books, including books by people I know, including Piketty, The Second Machine Age, Tim Harford’s wonderful macro explainer, Megan McArdle’;s The Up Side of Down, Lane Kenworthy on social democracy, The Fourth Revolution by John Micklethwait and Adrian Woolridge, and Frank Buckley on why the Canadian system of government is better.  And Russ Roberts, How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life: An Unexpected Guide to Human Nature and Happiness.  We’ve already talked, written, and thought about those plenty, and they are not what this list is about, so I will set them aside.  Most of you are looking for excellent new books in addition to these, books you might not have heard about. Here are the other non-fiction books of the year...more

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    When economic models are unable to fit the data

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Fair shares in pledged carbon cuts

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  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Over at Equitable Growth: European Economic Integration: The Rebalancing Challenge in Europe: Monday Focus

    Over at Equitable Growth: READ MOAR .pptx .pdf .key https://www.icloud.com/keynote/AwBUCAESEAuX22e8rlul-6x66WWpxX4aKZ47DgLL1fC2IoxtkRkTbcGbpFs8qxcW_MK2BTdYUvG8dGqTHaK4yPx6MCUCAQEEILPNgaRVHQYpnPC_VA4ETvzObM2Zl2pYY8ELeZoNt0w-#2014-11-24_Mo--DeLong_CEEI.key ...more

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  • Beat the Press

    Robert Samuelson Isn't Satisfied that China Agreed to Cap Its Per Capita Emissions at Less than Half U.S. Level

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  • Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

    Noted for Your NIghttime Procrastination for November 23, 2014

    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog Over at Grasping Reality: Barry Eichengreen's "Hall of Mirrors" Wolfgang Münchau: Radical Left Is Right About Europe’s Debt Ed Luce: Washington’s Two Foreign Policies Hobson's Choice: (Late) Friday Focus Lawrence Summers: Companies on Trial Matthew Yglesias: The GOP's Counterproductive Policy Strategy Richard Milne: Central Banks: Stockholm Syndrome Plus: Things to Read at Night on November 23, 2014 Must- and Shall-Reads: Toby N.: The wrongest thing ever? My defence of multi-billionaire hegde fund inflation truthers Ryan Avent: Free exchange: No country for young people Wolfgang Münchau: Radical left is right about Europe’s debt** Ed Luce**: Washington’s two foreign policies Lawrence Summers: Companies on Tria...more

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  • The Skeptical Speculator

    US stocks hit record highs but outlook turning negative

    Stocks in the United States rose last week, their fifth consecutive weekly gain, with benchmark indices hitting new record highs. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.2 percent to 2,063.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.0 percent to 17,810.06. Elsewhere in the world, the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 2.9 percent but the MSCI All-Country Asia Pacific Index fell 1.3 percent. Markets were boosted by actions by central banks last week. The People's Bank of China announced on Friday that it was cutting one-year benchmark lending rates by 40 basis points to 5.6 percent and one-year benchmark deposit rates by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent. Also on Friday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi told an audience of bankers in Frankfurt that “we will...more

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Two Related Links

    (Don Boudreaux) Jim Bovard on what David Henderson calls l’affaire Gruber. Casey Mulligan on some regrettable economic consequences of Obamacare.

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  • International Political Economy Zone

    China Syndrome: Japan Sells Subs to Australia?

    Next stop for Soryu-class Japanese subs? The Land of Oz.Whoa, another security-related post after the previous one on China's fisher militia. You'd think the IPE Zone is turning into Jane's Defense Weekly, but no. Simply put, security matters affect commerce and vice-versa. A particularly interesting thing for the Asia-Pacific is the simultaneous economic outreach of China as it expands its military; the former funds the latter. This phenomenon has led to all sorts of interesting tensions. While China's neighbors have benefited from it opening up to the rest of the world and, I grudgingly admit, providing lower-cost consumer goods, its rise has been accompanied by greater belligerence. Or, at least, the capacity for it.Australia provides a useful case in point. The Land...more

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  • The Big Picture

    Last Few Slots Left: NYC Open House (December 8-12)

    We just had a trip to Washington D.C. Coming up in the new year will be visits to Seattle, Austin, and San Francisco, But a number of you suggested New York City as our next place for a meet and greet, and so that is what we decided to do. We have scheduled the week of December 8th for our open house. We will be meeting with prospective clients for both RWM and Liftoff, as well as having a meetup or two. We often talk about markets and the economy, cognitive biases and investor behavior. But to give you a better sense of how we approach our practice, give Josh’s fantastic post on Why We Educate Our Clients a thorough read. It is simply an outstanding explanatory of what we do and why. For those of you want to learn a bit more about our investing philosophy and app...more

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    Assorted links

    1. A lot of anomalies exist only in hard to trade stocks. 2. Why is a neuroscientist working for Uber?. 3. What is the most popular funeral song? (British) 4. Izabella Kaminska criticizes free banking. 5. At The New Statesman, authors choose favorite books for 2014. 6. Why is the Swedish language so incomplete?  And why are they voting on it?  This raises the question anew of which semantic issues should be turned into matters of explicit political debate, the culture that is Sweden. ...more

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  • TIME

    New Malware Infecting Telecom, Energy, Airline Industries

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  • Economist's View

    'Is Economics Really a Dismal Science for Women?'

    Since I posted an excerpt from Noah Smith's column, I should also post this response from Frances Woolley: Is economics really a dismal science for women?: Donna Ginther and Shulamit Kahn have just published a paper that tracks thousands of American academics from the time they first get their PhDs through to their tenure and promotion decisions. ... Noah Smith ... takes, Ginther and Kahn's cautious and nuanced results, and leaps to the conclusion that economics "seems to have a built-in bias that prevents women from advancing."  Really? I have never seen a woman denied tenure when a man with similar number and quality of publications was awarded it. I don't deny Ginther and Kahn's findings, but might there be a non-discriminatory expl...more

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  • Marginal REVOLUTION

    What can you infer from three Russian data points?

    THREE times in the last 35 years, Russian military forces have crossed international borders – in Afghanistan in 1979, Georgia in 2008 and the Crimea earlier this year. As Simon Derrick, the currency strategist at BNY Mellon points out, each occasion coincided with a peak in the oil price. And each incursion was followed by a very sharp fall in the price of crude (see chart). …If the previous episodes are any guide, oil has a fair way to fall. That is from Buttonwood at The Economist, file under “speculative”… ...more

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  • Econbrowser

    Lower oil prices and the U.S. economy

    For the last 4 years, the national average retail price of gasoline in the United States stayed within a range of $3.25-$4.00 a gallon. But that all changed this fall, with U.S. consumers now paying an average price of $2.82. New Jersey Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com This usually is the time of year when gasoline prices tend to be at their lowest. But the current U.S. price of gasoline is exactly what we’d predict given the long-run relation between the price of gasoline and crude oil. There’s essentially no seasonal component in the price of crude. In other words, if crude stays at its current value (namely, Brent at $80), the lower price of gasoline is here to stay. The current price of gasoline is 80 cen...more

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  • Marc to Market

    Every One Wants Dollars (Again)

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  • Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

    Is economics really a dismal science for women?

    Donna Ginther and Shulamit Kahn have just published a paper that tracks thousands of American academics from the time they first get their PhDs through to their tenure and promotion decisions. They conclude: Economics is the one field where gender differences in tenure receipt seem to remain even after background and productivity controls are factored in and even for single childless women.  Ginther and Kahn never use the word sexism. They only use the word discrimination to question its existence, saying their results suggest "women’s entry into tenure-track academia is dominated by choice rather than by any discrimination at hiring." They do find their results, "deeply troubling." Noah Smith uses no such restraint. In his ...more

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  • Marc to Market

    Politics is Economics in the Week Ahead

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  • Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

    Quotation of the Day…

    (Don Boudreaux) … is from page 18 of the 1983 collection of some of the writings of the late G. Warren Nutter, entitled Political Economy and Freedom; specifically, it’s from Nutter’s 1974 essay “Freedom in a Revolutionary Economy”: More fundamentally, something must be wrong in a society that feels compelled to treat each new problem, no matter how routine, as a monumental crisis and hence chooses to live in a continual atmosphere of tension, sacrifice, and fear. ...more

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    Trash Talking at the Harvard-Yale Game

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  • Fabius Maximus

    Beckett shows our future. She chooses wisely & marries Castle, but dreams at night of her alpha ex-boyfriend.

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  • International Political Economy Zone

    Territorial Disputes & China's Fisher Militia

    And he said to them, “Follow me, and I will make you fishers of men” [Matthew 4:19]Since it's the weekend, let's try something different. By now everyone knows China has maritime disputes with nearly all its neighbors in East and Southeast Asia. Like in any other sort of social relation, you are guaranteed to offend others if you mark off vast swathes of territory as your own under dubious grounds. Recalling the biblical passage above, China is seemingly attempting to redefine it militarily. Aware of the poor "optics" in violating agreements not to deploy force in regional waters to assert one's territorial claims, the Chinese have come up with another gambit. That's right--"fishers" have been baiting people instead of fish in the service of PRC interests in asserti...more

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  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

    Regional wage differentials in the public sector

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  • Econbrowser

    What have the nonpartisan research agencies ever done for us?

    (For the youth of today, here is the reference.) I see Americans for Tax Reform is against reappointment of Doug Elmendorf as CBO head. It is a remarkable document, insofar as it is so full of factual errors that the head spins. Montgomery at WaPo provides a point-by-point rebuttal of each of Grover Norquist’s assertions. Here’s a debunking of one of the most hysterical assertions: …the agency promotes a “Failed Keynesian Economic Analysis,” Norquist says, that asserts that “higher taxes are good for the economy, even to the point of implying that growth is maximized when tax rates are 100 percent.” Did the CBO really say that a 100 percent tax rate would be good for the economy? As evidence, Norquist points to a 2010 post by t...more

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  • Econbrowser

    Some Observations on the Wisconsin Employment Outlook

    The Walker Administration’s Economic Outlook forecasts private employment in January 2015 will be 115 thousand below the goal set forth by Governor Walker in August 2013. Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment will not reattain prior peak levels until 2015Q2. Figure 1 depicts how far employment is lagging Walker’s pledge, even by the Administration’s forecast. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment (red), forecast from November 2014 Wisconsin Economic Outlook, quadratic match interpolation (green), trend consistent with Governor Walker’s August 2013 pledge to create 250,000 net new private sector jobs (gray). Source: BLS, Wisconin Economic Outlook (November 2014), Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (August 2013), and author’s calculations. Th...more

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  • Paul Krugman

    The Wisdom of Peter Schiff

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  • Beat the Press

    Falling Interest Rates and Rising Stock Prices Can be Related

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  • Beat the Press

    The Congressional Budget Office Has Consistently Over-Estimated the Cost of Obamacare

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    McCloskey on Piketty

    A long, discursive, and compelling review essay.

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  • Fabius Maximus

    “Disasters & Climate Change”, an important new book illuminating the debate

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  • TIME

    Colorado Approves Credit Union for Pot Stores

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  • Paul Krugman

    Friday Night Music: Jessica Hernandez and the Deltas

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  • TIME

    Another Record-Breaking Week for U.S. Stock Markets

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  • Paul Krugman

    Inequality and Crises: Scandinavian Skepticism

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  • Fabius Maximus

    What does the health care debate reveal about us, and our future?

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  • CIPE Development Blog

    A New, Entrepreneurial Growth Model for South Korea

    The Republic of Korea is one of the greatest economic development success stories in history -- going from one of poorest countries in the world and a major aid recipient to a high-income country and a major aid donor in just a single generation. Both the head of the World Bank and the United Nations claim Korea as their birthplace. The “Miracle on the Han River” which led to Korea’s stunning... ...more

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  • Free exchange

    The right call

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  • CIPE Development Blog

    FEDECAMARAS Promotes Entrepreneurship in Venezuela Despite Difficulties

    The political and economic climate in Venezuela has become increasingly hostile for entrepreneurs and the private sector since 1998, when Hugo Chávez became president and ushered in his “Bolivarian Revolution” -- a series of sweeping economic and political changes aimed at helping the poor which instead led to high inflation, shortages of basic goods, and the growth of a large informal sector.... ...more

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  • John Quiggin

    Sandpit

    A new sandpit for long side discussions, idees fixes and so on.

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  • International Political Economy Zone

    Redefining 'White Elephant': N Korea's New Int'l Airport

    Hoping for a less lonely planet than this, they're building a new international airport.The term "white elephant denotes massive investment into something which ultimately has little or no practical value. In the developing world, these usually refer to infrastructure projects. Think of Greece hosting the Summer Olympics in 2004. Not only was the country saddled with massive debts for the Olympian spending spree on new stadiums and the like, but these sports facilities are mostly unused nowadays. However, even the Greek tragedy has no answer to what promises to be a tragicomedy of massive proportions as the hermit kingdom of North Korea is building a new international airport. Where the guests will come from is a different question altogether.All the same, you read that...more

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  • CIPE Development Blog

    Reforming the Entrepreneurship Ecosystem: A Study on Barriers to Growth in Tunisia and Egypt

    The Center on Development, Democracy, and the Rule of Law at Stanford, in cooperation with CIPE, has conducted a survey of 131 Egyptian and Tunisian entrepreneurs and business owners to find what that the greatest barriers are to the growth of businesses in these countries. As Global Entrepreneurship Week comes to a close, CIPE is releasing the following Feature Service article  to contribute to... ...more

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  • Free exchange

    It is really that bad

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  • Free exchange

    A glut-wrenching experience

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    On Death with Dignity

    We take the will to live as a positive attribute, and naturally so; it is, of course in our genes.  Whatever subset of our species took a lackadaisical view toward the prospect of death was screened out long ago. We look with admiration on those who battle against terminal illness --  “She’s a real fighter” -- and look down on those who take their own lives. Fighting for your life is the genetic prime directive.   Thus the recent death of Brittany Maynard spurred a flurry of news articles and posts on the Death with Dignity movement. There will be a lot more to come on this topic, and the movement will gather steam because whatever is in the crosshairs of the baby boomers weighs down on society as a whole. Soon the baby boomers will come to the...more

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  • John Quiggin

    50 years later

    I once read a remark about the kind of bank advertisement that shows a proud young couple outside their first home, to the effect that it would be better to show them middle-aged, making the final payment on their 25-year mortgage, at which point the home would truly be theirs. I have the same kind of reaction to the Queensland government’s (publicly funded, I believe) ads showing “ordinary Queenslanders” celebrating the fact that our public assets are going to be leased rather than sold under the government’s plan. Most of those in the ads are young (20s and 30s, I’d say). Even so, many of them will have passed on by the time the lease first comes up for renewal in 2064. And of course, that’s just the start of it. There’s a 49...more

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  • Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

    One of these Provinces is Not Like the Others...

    Statistics Canada has released its provisional estimates of Canadian Government Finance Statistics (CGFS) for the period 2008 to 2012.  This is a move away from the Financial Management System (FMS) data that was previously published by Statistics Canada.  As described by Statistics Canada: “The FMS was founded on a modified-cash based system of accounting. In recent years, Canadian governments have moved from a modified-cash based accounting system to an accrual based accounting system. As such the statistical system underlying government finance statistics must also change. Statistics Canada has decided to move towards reporting government finance statistics on a Government Finance Statistics 2001 basis. The GFS 2001 is an international accepted accrual...more

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  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    Growth: An Essential Part of a Cure for Unemployment

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  • Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

    Fragility of Nash equilibria and Neo-Fisherites

    I hope that I am reinventing the wheel by writing this post. And that some game theorist has already written something much better on the same subject. (If not, then they should have done.) But I need a game theorist to tell me about it and explain it to me, in simple language (if possible). [The macro punchline comes at the end of this post.] This is my crude attempt to define "fragility/robustness" of Nash equilibria: Let G be a game, let S be a set of strategies in that game (one for each player), and let S* be a Nash equilibrium in that game. Assume a large number of players, and a continuous strategy space, if it helps (because that's what I have in my mind). Suppose that a small fraction n of the players deviate by a small amount e from S* (their ha...more

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  • The Skeptical Speculator

    Nikkei 225 falls as Japanese economy contracts

    The Nikkei 225 plunged 3.0 percent on Monday after the Japanese government reported that the economy contracted 0.4 percent in the third quarter, the second consecutive quarterly contraction. However, US investors shrugged off the news. The S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent on Monday to close at another record high....more

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  • John Quiggin

    Subsidising coal

    I was going to post on the Newman government’s announcement of subsidies to development of new coal mines in the Galilee Basin, but this piece by Michael West says it all. Key observation The very day after the G20 concluded, with its recommendations about ending government subsidies to fossil fuels, it appears the Queensland government is poised to ramp up its subsidies for the humungous Galilee Basin coal project. Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/wise-investment-or-fossil-fools-queensland-backs-coal-as-g20-moves-the-game-on-20141117-11odkq.html#ixzz3JM8yeHsw ...more

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  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    Building a Camaraderie of Central Bankers: How Monetary Policymakers in the Caucasus and Central Asia Can Learn From Each Other

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  • Greg Mankiw's Blog

    Elmendorf for CBO Director

    Roll Call speculates about who the next director of the Congressional Budget Office might be. This is a key decision facing the newly elected GOP-controlled Congress. After giving a talk at CBO on Thursday and participating in its Academic Advisers Panel on Friday, I am reminded how impressive the CBO staff is and how important the institution is to the policy process. (FYI, my own affiliation with CBO dates back to the summer of 1978, when I was an intern there.)So who should the next CBO director be? There are a lot of reputable economists on the Roll Call list. Many are friends of mine. All things considered, however, I believe there is a clear choice: Doug Elmendorf.Someon...more

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  • iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

    Understanding Spillovers

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  • Institutional Economics

    Capital Gains Tax Reform in Canada: Lessons from Abroad

    The Fraser Institute has released a new volume on international experience with capital gains taxes. I wrote the chapter on New Zealand, with some reference to Australia. Australia was deemed too similar to Canada to warrant a chapter in its own right....more

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  • The Skeptical Speculator

    Stock markets survive turbulent October

    Stocks rose last week, with stock indices in the United States in particular hitting new all-time highs. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 2.7 percent last week to 2,018.05 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 3.5 percent to 17,390.52, both achieving new record highs. The STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 2.9 percent while the MSCI All-Country Asia Pacific Index rose 3.1 percent. Stock markets slipped on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve announced the end of its bond-buying programme but this event was offset by the announcement from the Bank of Japan on Friday that it was raising its annual target for asset purchases to around 80 trillion yen from 60-70 trillion yen, which helped boost stocks at the end of the week. The diverging moves from the US and Japanese ...more

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  • The Street Light

    Transfer Pricing Economics

    I'd like to announce that after a long hiatus from blogging, I'm taking it up again in a new forum.  The new blog, Transfer Pricing Economics, is primarily devoted to exploring my particular area of professional specialty, namely "transfer pricing".  If that term doesn't mean anything to you, then feel free to check out my brief explanation of transfer pricing. My aim is to expose and analyze the connections between the arcane world of transfer pricing and broader developments in the economic and financial world. And the connections are significant: the rules and economic logic of transfer pricing have a direct impact on trillions of dollars of international trade every year. So please feel free to check in on and contribute to the discussions about these...more

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    Ex Ante versus Ex Post Social Policy

    I have written various posts on social policy related to the question of whether and how we redistribute income. One argument of equal opportunity and social egalitarianism is that it is fair to control for the randomness of life. For example, take the luck of the draw in who your parents are. If your best career choice was to be born into a wealthy family, if you got ahead because your father could pull strings to get you an internship at a big investment bank; because you built up your high school resume by spending a summer building houses in Tibet while a classmate had to spend the summer working at the 7-11; or because you could afford two years of one-on-one tutoring for the SAT, the result might be to score higher in an objective standard of selection and have a ...more

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  • Alpha.Sources

    Another Eurozone Crisis Ahead?

    Calamities happen in financial markets, and usually when investors least expect and are least prepared for it. In the euro area, weak growth in the past six months and the inability of the ECB's measures to turn asset markets arounds have led investors to, once again, revisit their sovereign debt crisis playbooks.  This is understandable, but also now raises a fundamental question. If we are about to tumble into round 2 (or 3?) of the sovereign debt crisis, Eurozone bears may still prevail holding on to the recent trend in equities. But if we are not, the only trade that currently makes sense is to buy equities and short benchmark bonds in the euro area. Narrow money growth and ECB easing would indicate this to be a good bet, but the lack of sovereign QE amid incre...more

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  • Rick Bookstaber

    My Recent Work on Agent-based Modeling

    As is obvious by looking at the time span between recent posts, I have not been active in blogging. I am planning to get back into things.  As a start, to help catch up on what I have been doing, here are a couple of papers and a presentation I recently made on the area of my focus, using agent-based modeling to help assess financial vulnerabilities.The model is presented here.For a concise presentation on the model and its application you can look at a talk I did in August at the Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences at Cambridge University.  (Despite what is suggested by the venue, I did the presentation mathlessly).Related to the model is work I have been doing to develop a map of sorts for the key agents in the financial system and the ways in wh...more

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Services, manufacturing, and new growth strategies

    I gave a talk yesterday on New Growth Strategies at the World Bank, which was more or less an elaboration of this short piece. I argued that industrialization had pretty much run out of steam as a growth strategy, that services would need to be the focus going forward, and that this required in turn a different policy mindset about how to increase productivity. In particular, I argued that policies focusing on generating a sequence of sectoral “winners,” which worked so  well in manufacturing (garments to car seats to cars to electronics), would have much smaller payoff in services, in view of the non-tradability of most service segments. I suggested further that, even under the best of circumstances, a services-oriented strategy would yield lower growth than ...more

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  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    The Return of Voodoo Economics

    Paul Krugman’s column in the New York Times today talked of the revival of “Voodoo economics” by some Republican politicians.  This refers to the Laffer Proposition that a cut in income tax rates stimulates economic activity so much that tax revenue goes up rather than down.   Gov. Sam Brownback, who is running for re-election in Kansas, has had to confront the reality that tax revenues went down, not up as he argued they would, when he cut state tax rates. I disagree with one thing that Krugman wrote in his column: the idea that there was a long break,  particularly after George W. Bush took office, during which Republican politicians did not push this line.  To the contrary, I have collected many quotes from George W. Bush and his top officials claiming the...more

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  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    Piketty’s Fence

    Most of the reviews of Thomas Piketty’s book Capital in the Twenty-First Century have already been written.  But I thought it might be best to read it all the way through before offering my own thoughts on this book, which startlingly rose to the top of the best seller lists last April.  It has taken me five months, but I finished it. One of the things the book has in common with the Karl Marx’s Das Capital (1867) is that it serves as a rallying point for the many people who are passionately concerned about inequality, regardless whether they understand or agree with the specific arguments contained in the book in question.  To be fair, much of what Marx wrote was bizarre and very little was based on careful economic statistics.  Much of what Piketty says is ba...more

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  • Smart Economy

    Belgian Researchers Discover Way to Block Cancer Metastasis

      Free Radicals and Cancer Metastasis KEY QUOTE:  The Belgian team led by Sonveaux has found the mechanism by which cells can control changes caused at least in part by free radicals. The free radical involved in the metastacism of tumor cells is superoxide. Tests in mice on melanoma and breast cancer cells showed that administering an antioxidant stopped the production of superoxide. That, in turn, prevented cell changes that would lead to metastasis.   N.B. This is confirmation why Carbon 60 Hydrated Fullerenes stops cancer metastasis, by scavanging free radicals that cause cancer. Ukrainian scientists have known this for over ten years!!--Walter Derzko September 18, 2014 12:28 AM                 WASHINGTON— Cancer remains one of the dea...more

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  • Smart Economy

    New non-invasive technique could revolutionize the imaging of metastatic cancer

                     IMAGE:   This is Paul Fisher, M.Ph., Ph.D., Thelma Newmeyer Corman Endowed Chair in Cancer Research and co-leader of the Cancer Molecular Genetics research program at VCU Massey Cancer Center, chairman of... Click here for more information.      Bioluminescence, nanoparticles, gene manipulation – these sound like the ideas of a science fiction writer, but, in fact, they are components of an exciting new approach to imaging local and metastatic tumors. In preclinical animal models of metastatic prostate cancer, scientists at Virginia Commonwealth University Massey Cancer Center, VCU Institute of Molecular Medicine and Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions have provided proof-of-principle of a new molecular...more

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  • Smart Economy

    Space: The final frontier… open to the public

      UTMB research shows average people healthy enough for commercial space travel Historically, spaceflight has been reserved for the very healthy. Astronauts are selected for their ability to meet the highest physical and psychological standards to prepare them for any unknown challenges. However, with the advent of commercial spaceflight, average people can now fly for enjoyment. The aerospace medicine community has had very little information about what medical conditions or diseases should be considered particularly risky in the spaceflight environment, as most medical conditions have never been studied for risk in space — until now. The aerospace medicine group at the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston recently studied how average people with common ...more

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  • Alpha.Sources

    Where Are My Foreign Assets When I Need Them?

    How do you show the challenge of the eurozone periphery in one chart? Well, it is difficult but the representation below is a good pick in my view. A structurally negative net foreign asset position is a very tough hurdle to overcome when in a currency union, saddled with poor demographics and need net external demand to boost national income. Think of the periphery as Japan and Germany without(!) the strong net foreign asset position.  These countries seem to have grown old before getting rich and without the ability to devalue in nominal terms, the outlook is not good.    --- Picture is courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and has also been posted on Twitter.  ...more

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  • Alpha.Sources

    The Italian Economy Remains Stuck ...

    Italy has the dubious honor of the being the first eurozone economy to re-enter recession after the decidedly tepid recovery since 2012. This is bad news for an economy struggling with steadily increasing government debt and no real solution on how to pay off its mounting liabilities. What is even worse is that it looks as if the economy is not about to exit its malaise anytime soon. --- Picture is courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and has also been posted on Twitter.    ...more

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    Back to sanity on economic convergence

    It’s been interesting to watch how the conventional wisdom on rapid convergence – developing countries closing the gap with the advanced economies – has been changing over the last few years. It wasn’t so long ago that the world was in the grips of emerging-markets mania, projecting wildly optimistic growth numbers decades into the future. For the last 4-5 years, I have been writing that the pace of convergence we have experienced over the last two decades is unsustainable. There were temporary factors (cheap capital, low interest rates, high commodity prices, rapid Chinese expansion) which would begin to reverse themselves. And perhaps most importantly, export-oriented industrialization was running out of steam much earlier, even in the relatively successful co...more

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  • Institutional Economics

    I am leaving CIS and returning to financial markets

    This is my last week at CIS. I will be returning to financial markets from whence I came back in 2008. Thanks to Greg Lindsay for giving me a platform to participate in the public policy debate over the last few years. Thanks also to those who contributed to Policy while I was editor over the last 18 months. Policy will continue under a new editor. My new employer won’t be paying me to blog or tweet during business hours, so you will be hearing even less from me on what is already a very low frequency blog. I will still post material here from time to time and link to what I am doing when appropriate. Needless to say, nothing on this web site should be attributed to current or previous employers. This blog has followed me around in various roles since 2003, back whe...more

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  • Jeffrey Frankel's Blog

    Modi, Sisi & Jokowi: Three New Leaders Face the Challenge of Food & Fuel Subsidies

    In few policy areas does good economics seem to conflict so dramatically with good politics as in the practice of subsidies to food and energy.  Economics textbooks explain that these subsidies are lose-lose policies. In the political world that can sound like an ivory tower abstraction.   But the issue of unaffordable subsidies happens to be front and center politically now, in a number of places around the world.   Three major new leaders in particular are facing this challenge:  Sisi in Egypt, Jokowi in Indonesia, and Modi in India. The Egyptian leader is doing a much better job of facing up to the need to cut subsidies than one might have expected.  India’s new prime minister, by contrast, is doing worse than expected – even torpedoing a long-anticipated ...more

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  • Institutional Economics

    Wayne Swan on Monetary Offset and the GFC

    Former Treasurer Wayne Swan is releasing some of his briefing notes from the GFC ahead of the launch of his upcoming memoir, The Good Fight. The first instalment from a meeting at the Prime Minister’s residence with the Prime Minister, Treasury Secretary and other senior officials on 4 August 2008 is remarkable for its acknowledgement of monetary offset. Indeed, the notes could just as easily have been written by Scott Sumner: There are three broad considerations the Government would need to keep in mind in taking a decision to engage in discretionary [fiscal] action: • The Reserve Bank through its control over interest rates, determines the overall level of aggregate demand in the economy, and the Bank would likely take account of any fiscal stimulus in its monet...more

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  • CYNICONOMICS

    Technical Notes for ‘Never Mind Their Distrust of Data and Forecasts…’

    This is a short appendix for our earlier post, “Never Mind Their Distrust of Data and Forecasts; Austrians Can Help You Predict the Economy,” in the usual Q&A format. Why do you show three different series in the first chart? We show “Net Private Debt from Census Bureau” because it has the longest history. We use it later to calculate 5-year credit growth figures for the period before the Fed’s “flow of funds” becomes available. We deduct financial and real estate corporation debt in the second dotted line to show that private debt growth in the late 1920s wasn’t skewed by financial debt (as it was in the 2000s). We can only back out financial debt from 1926 (not enough data to use in the “savings rates and credit growth” chart), but this series...more

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  • CYNICONOMICS

    Never Mind Their Distrust of Data and Forecasts; Austrians Can Help You Predict the Economy

    [O]f all the economic bubbles that have been pricked, few have burst more spectacularly than the reputation of economics itself. – From The Economist, July 16, 2009. It’s been five years since the The Economist magazine published the critical commentary  excerpted above. In hindsight, the noted reputational damage was neither lasting nor spectacular. As of today, we’d say it’s almost non-existent. Mainstream economists continue to dominate their profession and wield huge influence on public policies. They merely needed to close ranks after the financial crisis and wait for people to forget that their key theories and models were wholly discredited. Meanwhile, heterodox economists who stress credit market risks and financial fragilities – the Austrians, the Mi...more

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  • CYNICONOMICS

    Technical Notes for ‘Planning for Future Rate Hikes…’

    This is a short appendix for our earlier post, “Planning for Future Rate Hikes: What Can History Tell Us that the Fed Won’t?,” presented in Q&A format. I don’t understand the calculations in your charts – can you walk me through one of the figures? Sure, we’ll do this for the figure depicted by the first bar (6.1%) on the real fixed investment chart: We start by isolating all 4 quarter periods over which the fed funds rate dropped by more than 2%. There were 37 such periods in our data set, as shown in the first chart of the main article. For each of these periods, we record the growth in real fixed investment over the next 4 quarters. This is what we mean by lagged growth – we’re lagging the economic outcome against the change in interest rate...more

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  • Dani Rodrik's weblog

    My moonlighting career of the last 4 years

    At long last, Turkey's consitutional court has reversed the conviction of the more than 200 officers previously found guilty in the bogus Sledgehammer coup plot, leading to the release on June 19th of all those in jail (including my father in law). Even though a retrial is to take place, the ruling is a coda to the last four-and-a-half years during which my wife and I moonlighted as criminal investigator, forensic analyst, and political activist. It has been a truly surreal and bizarre experience, given how so many intelligent people bought into -- and refused let go of -- a coup plot that was patently fictitious.     So I thought this would be a good time to post a longish account of my involvement in the story. I wrote it as much to make sense of it to...more

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Farewell

    In memoriam: Gary S. Becker, 1930-2014. The Becker-Posner blog is terminated. Richard A. Posner

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  • Felix Salmon

    Post Felix

    By Shane Ferro Today is Felix’s last day at Reuters. Here's the link to his mega-million word blog archive (start from the beginning, in March 2009, if you like). Because we’re source-agnostic, you can also find some of his best stuff from the Reuters era at Wired, Slate, the Atlantic, News Genius, CJR, the NYT, and NY Mag. There’s also Felix TV, his personal site, his Tumblr, his Medium archive, and, of course, the Twitter feed we all aspire to. Counterparties may have been the brainchild of Felix and the recently departed Ryan McCarthy, but the blog, site, newsletter, and Twitter feed will continue to exist in their absence. It will be run by Ben Walsh and Shane Ferro, with some non-trivial amount of snark. Today we focus on the reason Felix started Counterparti...more

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  • Felix Salmon

    The Piketty pessimist

    By Felix Salmon This chart comes from the World Economic Forum’s 2014 Global Risks Report, which came out just before Thomas Piketty’s book started becoming the topic of discussion in economic and plutocratic circles.* You can clearly see what you might call the rise of inequality-as-an issue: before 2012 it’s nowhere to be found, but since then it’s been consistently in the top spot. My prediction is that in 2015, thanks to Piketty, the WEF will start talking less about income inequality, and more about wealth inequality. The big question, though, is whether inequality is really much of a risk at all. After all, from the point of view of the average billionaire WEF delegate, inequality would seem to look much more like a reward. Chrystia Freeland has a hopeful...more

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  • Felix Salmon

    The most expensive lottery ticket in the world

    By Felix Salmon No Exit, the new book from Gideon Lewis-Kraus, should be required reading for anybody who thinks it might be a good idea to found a startup in Silicon Valley. It shows just how miserable the startup founder’s life is, and raises the question of why anybody would voluntarily subject themselves to such a thing. A large part of the answer is that Silicon Valley is gripped by a mass delusion, compounded by a deep “fake it til you make it” attitude toward success. Why do so many people in Silicon Valley want to be founders? Because every founder they meet is always killing it, crushing it, having massive success, just about to close a huge round, etc etc. At some level, they must know this is impossible: if 90% of startups fail, it simply can’t be the...more

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    Sabbatical Notice

    Starting this weekend, we will be taking a one-month sabbatical from blogging. We will resume at the end of that period.

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  • The Becker-Posner Blog

    The Embargo of Cuba: Time to Go- Becker

    The US embargo of Cuba began in 1960, a year after Fidel Castro turned this island toward communism. It was extended to food and medicines in 1962, the same year as the showdown with Russia over the installation of missiles there. The embargo has prevented American companies from doing business with Cuba, and discouraged tourism to Cuba. The American government also tried with quite limited success to prevent other countries from trading with Cuba. In general economic embargoes are undesirable because they interfere with free trade among countries. Yet a case could be made for an embargo against Cuba. Castro not only allowed Russian missiles to be installed in Cuba, just 90 miles from Florida, but was also actively trying to interfere in other countries by sending troop...more

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  • Stefan Karlsson's blog

    New Blog Address: http://stefankarlssoneng.wordpress.com/

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  • Stefan Karlsson's blog

    Ukraine Crisis Isn't Over

    So now the so-called protestors have overthrown democratically elected President Yanukovich in what is in effect a coup. It is unclear what will happen, and how Russia and Yanukovich and his supporters will act, but this is almost certainly not the end of it.Indeed, how could it be the end? Some people argue that protestors were motivated by anger over corruption and abuse of power from Yanukovich. But while Yanukovich is no doubt corrupt and some protestors may indeed have been motivated by anger over that fact, the opposition movement led by Yulia Tymoschenko is just as corrupt as Yanukovich, so if they prevail, that won't mean less corruption and abuse of power.No, what this conflict is really about is that today's Ukraine is an artificial state created by Soviet com...more

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  • Stefan Karlsson's blog

    How Old Posts Can Become Popular Again

    Suddenly, my post about why Ukraine should be divided between its anti-Russian and pro-Russian parts has seen a dramatic increase in page views. That is no doubt related to the latest escalation of Ukraine's political crisis with both government forces and the neo-Nazi elements of the opposition increasingly using violent means in the confrontation. Ukraine is dangerously close to a full scale civil war. Let's hope that it doesn't come to that. Ukraine has been ravaged for a century by wars, German Nazis, Communism, corruption and ethnic conflict, to add a(nother) civil war would be really cruel. I remain convinced that secession is the best way to solve the conflict peacefully....more

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  • The Oil Drum - Discussions about Energy and Our Future

    The Oil Drum writers: Where are they now?

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  • International Political Economy at the University of North Carolina

    Why US Financial Hegemony Will Endure

    Will and I have a piece, now ungated, over at a fantastic new online magazine called Symposium. Our article translates much of the main points of our Perspectives Piece (co-authored with Thomas and Andy Pennock) for popular consumption. We are also blogging over there this week in support of the article. Please do check out our writing this week on the magazine's website, as well as the other great content on the site....more

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  • International Political Economy at the University of North Carolina

    Foreign Direct Investment, Human Rights, INGOs

    One of the major areas of underdeveloped research within political science is the interaction between non-state actors. From an international political economy perspective, the literature has largely ignored the interaction of various non-state actors that are growing in importance, and its effects on different forms of trade. In a recently published article "Avoiding the Spotlight: Human Rights Shaming and Foreign Direct Investment" by Colin Barry, Chad Clay and Michael Flynn, they lay the foundation for examining this interaction. They examine the interaction between non-state actors (INGOs) and multinational corporations (MNCs) and the extent to which private actors' choices to invest in countries are affected by the reputational costs of doing business in those...more

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  • The Oil Drum - Discussions about Energy and Our Future

    The Last Post

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  • The Oil Drum - Discussions about Energy and Our Future

    The House That Randy Built

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  • International Political Economy at the University of North Carolina

    Verizon, Vodafone, and Measuring FDI

    Recently back from APSA in Chicago, I've been reflecting on the state of our knowledge about FDI (or perhaps more accurately, cross-border management stakes in enterprises). That, and working on my dissertation, applying for academic jobs, and teaching. Oh, and telling everyone who'll listen about my Optimus Prime sighting on Michigan Ave.Anyway, I find a post-conference review of the discipline is generally a good way to consider potentially fruitful lines of new inquiry. In my experience, the quality of papers at conferences can be rather hit-or-miss. This generally fits into my view of conferences as important sources of external deadlines for getting drafts done as well as interacting with other scholars in more informal settings such as the hotel bar/lobby/over-cro...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-09

    Given that I block NSA & PRISM tweets, was entertaining tuning into twitter & trying to figure why everyone was on about Lord Snowdon -> Turned on GoT tonight just in time to catch Daenerys reenacting her Level 2 YMCA gymnastics pageant. -> How Not to Be Alone | Jonathan Safran Foer – http://t.co/HMFxg75lfh http://t.co/DzAtvWBQJr -> Excellent, but fellow sports-med geeks only: Sports and exercise-related tendinopathies: a review – http://t.co/WGkhRlO6Uz -> ...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-07

    Photo-set: Flooding Across Central Europe – http://t.co/8G6j8teCbd -> CDC Update: Severe Respiratory Illness Associated with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus – http://t.co/hWqN1338VN -> Col Flagg: Have you ever heard of Malaysian Chest Implosion Torture? Radar: No. Coll Flagg: Good. It hasn’t been invented… yet. -> tl;dr: There are Manchurian Candidate engineers at large tech cos that have stolen SSL root cert and NSA is using it for cattle mutilation. -> Brian: …Will you please listen? I'm not the Messiah! Do you understand? Honestly Woman: Only the true Messiah denies his divinity! -> ...more

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  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

    Twitter Digest: 2013-06-05

    FRED: Free Energy Data – http://t.co/90H7GVDazO -> Solipsisms ‘r’ us, courtesy of my friends at @thinkup: I apparently mention me a lot – http://t.co/9rTRXvBM9D -> Almost 10,000 words on soccer/Italy/economics/racism by @wrightthompson? Yes, & it’s super. Go. http://t.co/g4sgEFLkIC -> When The Beautiful Game Turns Ugly: A journey into the world of Italy's racist soccer thugs http://t.co/nckrbeLPfs -> Can’t remember last time I read an OpEd or column. Do those still exist? -> ...more

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  • The Street Light

    Cyprus and Eurozone Bank Deposits

    To me, the central issue raised by this week's Cyprus debacle is how it has affected confidence across the eurozone.  To what degree has the possibility of insured depositors at a eurozone bank losing a portion of their deposits affected the mindset of depositors?  To what degree has ECB acquiescence to this possibility undermined the notion that deposit insurance in the eurozone means the same thing in all countries?  And to what degree has the ECB's direct threat to end support for Cyprus's banking system in the event that the government of Cyprus can not arrange sufficient funds to meet its conditions made a farce of its earlier promise to "do whatever it takes to preserve the euro"?These, to me, are the interesting questions prompted by this week's ev...more

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  • London Banker

    Chop Off Their Hands . . .

    President Truman famously called for a one handed economist. The Carolingian kings of France would have accommodated him. They realised that a kingdom required a common currency under the control of the king and well regulated markets to sustain the confidence of the people. At first mints were established widely, spread across the kingdom. Local barons began to profit from debasing the coinage, undermining confidence in the monetary system. So Charles the Bald established mints under his direct control and regulated the issue of coins: C.12. Following the custom of our predecessors, just as it is found in their capitularies, we decree that in no other place in all our kingdom shall money be made except in our palace, and in St. Josse and Rouen, which right in th...more

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  • The Street Light

    When the Fed Chair is an Academic

    The big economic news of the week was, in fact, big economic news: the Fed's announcement of significant changes from past practice in the the quantity of its next round of large scale asset purchases ("unlimited"), and in the timing of any future reversal of this expansionary policy ("a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens").I view this as a pretty fundamental shift in how the Fed hopes to affect the economy.  Rather than trying to push economic activity one way or the other through its management of interest rates (which can alter economic activity through its portfolio-rebalancing and wealth effects, for example), the Fed is now quite explicitly trying to affect economic activity by altering interest rate and inflation expectations.  As...more

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  • London Banker

    For Want of a Nail, the Ship Was Lost

    Imagine a great ship dominating the skyline on a distant sea. Imagine the complexity of that ship: keel, ribs, planks, masts, spars, and an infinite number of less readily named components. Each component was hand-crafted by a craftsman skilled in his trade, to precise requirements, and secured in position to take the stress and strain of a life at sea.Now imagine a crew. They didn't build the ship. The crew are told that the one and only purpose of the ship is to realise a profit for every man jack aboard. Any hand not contributing a profit will be turned ashore. Down below in the ship are nails. Thousands and thousands of nails. Nails are useful. Nails are much sought after in every port the ship enters. Nails can be readily sold and never traced. The crew h...more

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  • London Banker

    Lies, Damn Lies and LIBOR

    I've been hesitant to write about the LIBOR scandal because what I want to say goes so much further. We now know that Barclays and other major global banks have been manipulating the calculation of LIBOR through the quotation data they provided to the British Bankers Association. What I suspect is that this is not a flaw but a feature of modern financial markets. And if it was happening in LIBOR for between 5 and 15 years, then the business model has been profitably replicated to many other quotation-based reference prices.Price discovery is not a sexy function of markets, but it is critical to the efficient allocation of scarce capital and resources, and to the preservation of the long term wealth of investors and the economy as a whole. If price discovery is compr...more

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Emre Deliveli The Kapali Carsi

Emre Deliveli is a freelance consultant, part-time lecturer in economics and columnist. Previously, Emre worked as economist for Citi Istanbul, covering Turkey and the Balkans. He was previously Director of Economic Studies at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey in Ankara and has has also worked at the World Bank, OECD, McKinsey and the Central Bank of Turkey. Emre holds a B.A., summa cum laude, from Yale University and undertook his PhD studies at Harvard University, in Economics.

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