This months manufacturing PMI data only confirm what several months of prior surveys (and now the latest US jobs report) have been telling us, namely that growth in the developed economies is getting scarcer and scarcer, and harder and harder to come by. Following a brief brief period of stabilisation, which lasted roughly from November last [...]
Something that I have thinking about for a few weeks – and was reminded of reading Ryan Avent this morning – is the series of pieces at FT alphaville regarding the outflow of cash from China. See here and here and here. The thinking had been that the renminbi was a one-way bet as China [...]
Even before the newest portents of a slowdown, [0] it was clear that 2012 gains in world output were going to be highly reliant on Chinese growth. Figure 1 shows that the Eurozone switches to a net drag on world growth. China’s contribution is thus a much larger share of total world growth. Figure 1: [...]
Seeking sound economic policy:
From Project Syndicate: The Greek euro tragedy is reaching its final act: it is clear that either this year or next, Greece is highly likely to default on its debt and exit the eurozone. Postponing the exit after the June election with a new government committed to a variant of the same failed policies (recessionary [...]
It is time for European and IMF officials, with support from the US and others, to work on how to dismantle the euro area. While no dissolution will be truly orderly, there are means to reduce the chaos.
Edward Hugh
Don't Shoot the Messenger
Edward is a macro economist, who specializes in growth and productivity theory, demographic processes and their impact on macro performance, and the underlying dynamics of migration flows. Edward is based in Barcelona, and is currently engaged in research on aging, longevity, fertility and migration, and the impact of all of these on economic growth.
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