Japan’s recession is not paving the way for sustained growth. It is prolonging new debt and liquidity and thus deteriorating fiscal discipline. In the last quarter, Japan’s economy fell into recession. In the West, it was characterized as “unexpected.” The realities are precisely the reverse. With its third ’lost decade,’ Japan has entered an era [...]
I can hear you say it: “He finally lost it.” Nope, I have not gone completely nuts. I haven’t smoked anything that would make me see UFOs, either. I am talking about Turkey’s Unidentified Financing Objects. Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I take on the first of [...]
The just concluded G-20 meeting in Australia repeats many themes and patterns set at earlier G-20 meetings. Those at the Australian Treasury who planned this year’s G-20 economic policy strategy have shown little macroeconomic policy imagination. By adding to the supply-side structural reform plans identified in earlier G-20 meetings (but not fully implemented), and failing [...]
Central Bank Divergence
The divergence of monetary policies in the advanced economies continues to roil financial markets.
Must ReadDon't Shoot the Messenger
The recent move by the Bank of Japan to take further measures to accelerate the rate at which it ramps up its balance sheet took almost everyone – market watchers included – completely by surprise. The consequence was reasonably predictable – the yen has once more fallen strongly against almost all major currencies – and [...]
The attempt to dismantle the so-called Islamic State is important but also extraordinarily challenging. The U.S. must maintain a meaningful coalition to strike ISIL without simultaneously keeping Hafez Al Assad in power and without offending all the non-ISIL Sunnis in Iraq.