Europe is fearful as it teeters on the brink of deflation. As the chart shows, September consumer prices in the eurozone were just 0.3 percent higher than in the same month a year earlier. That is far below the 2 percent inflation target set by the European Central Bank (ECB). Five countries were already experiencing [...]
Ukraine faces interdependent military, political, and economic problems of enormous magnitude. Its territory has been invaded and occupied by a powerful neighbor, and armed separatists and Russian forces control territory in eastern and southern Ukraine. Since April of this year, more than 3500 people have died from the violence according to UN human rights observers. [...]
It is time for the 2014 Globie—a (somewhat fictitious) prize I award once a year to a book that deserves recognition for its treatment of the consequences of globalization. (Previous winners can be found here.) The financial turmoil of the last week makes this year’s award-winner particularly appropriate: Martin Wolf for The Shifts and the Shocks: What [...]
U.S. Economy: Recovery or Bust!
Rising momentum, lingering risks.
I have always thought that the soft landing/hard landing debate wholly misses the point when it comes to China’s economic prospects. It confuses the kinds of market-based adjustments we are likely to see in the US or Europe with the much more controlled process we see in China. Instead of a hard landing or a [...]
Data from the macro and financial realms imply that the bullish aura for the US economy and financial markets has a strong foundation at the moment. Indeed, encouraging macro data is the fuel that’s driving stocks higher. But this happy state of affairs doesn’t mean there’s no risk in the financial markets.