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Global Macro

High Public Debt, Stagnation, Deflation and Unemployment: Policy Errors and a Way Forward

This note reviews monetary and fiscal policies adopted by Japan, the United States and Eurozone periphery countries during the global financial crisis and subsequently. These countries all experienced similar economic problems; high public debt burdens, the deflation tendency, credit traps, inadequate aggregate demand and high unemployment. It is argued below that policymakers anchored their strategic [...]

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Asia

Chinese SMEs Gaining Momentum

With the decisive support of Beijing’s leadership, China’s economic reforms are spreading to one of the most critical sectors of employment – the small-and-medium size enterprises (SMEs). China is not known for its resilient small-and-medium-size enterprises (SMEs), as of yet. And still, in August, the SMEs’ PMI figure, which serves as an important indicator of [...]

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Code Red!

Iraq, Ukraine and other geostrategic hotspots.

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Europe

Russia’s Eurasian Vision

NEW YORK – The escalating conflict in Ukraine between the Western-backed government and Russian-backed separatists has focused attention on a fundamental question: What are the Kremlin’s long-term objectives? Though Russian President Vladimir Putin’s immediate goal may have been limited to regaining control of Crimea and retaining some influence in Ukrainian affairs, his longer-term ambition is [...]

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Because of rapidly approaching debt constraints, China cannot continue what I characterize as 'investment overshooting' economic polices for much longer (perhaps three or four years at most)...The longer this kind of growth continues, the greater the risk that China reaches debt capacity constraints, in which case the country faces a chaotic economic adjustment.

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Blogger Spotlight

Otaviano Canuto

Otaviano Canuto is Senior Advisor on BRICS Economies in the Development Economics Department, World Bank, a new position established by President Kim to bring a fresh research focus to this increasingly critical area. He also has an extensive academic background, serving as Professor of Economics at the University of Sao Paulo and University of Campinas (UNICAMP) in Brazil.

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