The price of crude oil, adjusted for inflation is at 1979 levels, having fallen by over 50 percent since June 2014. This is not the first oil price shock but part of the periodic conflicts in the oil market that John D. Rockefeller a century ago called the “great sweating”. In 1973, the oil price [...]
The landscape of international trade negotiations has been undergoing an upheaval. On the multilateral level, after 15 years of unsuccessful attempts to close the Doha Development Round at the World Trade Organization (WTO), the negotiation system has shown to be highly vulnerable to blockades by any small group of member countries. The complex web of [...]
At first look, the domestic economic agenda looks light this week, with purchasing managers’ indices, preliminary exports and inflation being the main data releases. However, it may end up being the make-or-break week for Turkish assets, and eventually for the economy. The intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column pretty much sums up [...]
How Robust is the U.S. Recovery?
The U.S. appears to have decoupled from an uncertain global growth environment. What is going on under the hood of its economic engine?
Must ReadThoughts From Across the Atlantic
In an earlier post, (2013) we discussed the long term decline in the share of manufacturing in the US economy. In this post, we will analyze the relationship between long-term structural changes and transitory shocks that have taken place in the US economy since World War II. Total GDP has increased by a factor of [...]
Modern deflation seems more related to a structural weakness in domestic demand and investment associated with shifting demographic dynamics than it is to ongoing debt deflation.