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Great Leap Forward

Where Danger Lurks: The Dark Recesses of the Orthodox Mind

Ah, the Eternal Sunshine of the Recessed Mind! Here’s an unintentionally–but riotously–hilarious mea culpa by Olivier Blanchard: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2014/09/blanchard.htm. Here’s the CliffsNotes version: Yes, we didn’t see nothing coming. But that isn’t our fault. The Global Financial Crisis—the biggest calamity since 1929—was invisible to us because it had been lurking in the dark corners of the [...]

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Code Red!

Iraq, Ukraine and other geostrategic hotspots.

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Europe

Russia’s Eurasian Vision

NEW YORK – The escalating conflict in Ukraine between the Western-backed government and Russian-backed separatists has focused attention on a fundamental question: What are the Kremlin’s long-term objectives? Though Russian President Vladimir Putin’s immediate goal may have been limited to regaining control of Crimea and retaining some influence in Ukrainian affairs, his longer-term ambition is [...]

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Because of rapidly approaching debt constraints, China cannot continue what I characterize as 'investment overshooting' economic polices for much longer (perhaps three or four years at most)...The longer this kind of growth continues, the greater the risk that China reaches debt capacity constraints, in which case the country faces a chaotic economic adjustment.

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Otaviano Canuto

Otaviano Canuto is Senior Advisor on BRICS Economies in the Development Economics Department, World Bank, a new position established by President Kim to bring a fresh research focus to this increasingly critical area. He also has an extensive academic background, serving as Professor of Economics at the University of Sao Paulo and University of Campinas (UNICAMP) in Brazil.

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