Reviewing the borrowing costs of European nations, a visiting intelligent alien may conclude that the European economic crisis is over and rehabilitation complete. 10-year government bond rates for Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece are 2.20%, 3.12%, 1.67% and 6.15% respectively. Equivalent rates for Germany, France and Italy are 0.97%, 1.31% and 2.39%. Comparable rates for [...]
Mission creep usually guarantees mission failure. What follows from changing the original goals of the mission is all too evident in the failed U.S. efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq. Now the United States has fallen into that trap with the Islamic State. The result will be a long and costly engagement and failure. Afghanistan and [...]
Nigeria has not reaped the benefits it did in China. Then again, the lessons of Chinese urbanization differ from those in the West. Recently, the consulting conglomerate McKinsey released its intriguing urbanization report Nigeria’s renewal: Delivering inclusive growth. According to McKinsey, the Nigerian case differs from the expected pattern of rising productivity and per capita GDP, [...]
U.S. Economy: Recovery or Bust!
Rising momentum, lingering risks.
I have always thought that the soft landing/hard landing debate wholly misses the point when it comes to China’s economic prospects. It confuses the kinds of market-based adjustments we are likely to see in the US or Europe with the much more controlled process we see in China. Instead of a hard landing or a [...]
Data from the macro and financial realms imply that the bullish aura for the US economy and financial markets has a strong foundation at the moment. Indeed, encouraging macro data is the fuel that’s driving stocks higher. But this happy state of affairs doesn’t mean there’s no risk in the financial markets.